Rd 2, Pick 33: WR Keon Coleman, Florida State

[wppete]

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C6e2Q57uslK/?igsh=MXY4eHg0c2hhaDl2bA==

[Mat68]

8 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I do wonder if his basketball experience actually has anything to do with his lack of separation on routes.    Basketball is largely played in close quarters and plays made against contested defense get a lot more "likes" from observers.   It's not even close.   I would often slow down on a breakaway to make the defender try hard and look personally defeated at the basket.   It's part of the fun of that game.   I can't relate to "posterizing" an opponent but uncontested dunks aren't sh!t compared to dunking ON an opponent.   Even if the reality is that the opponent was totally out-leveraged and was just compelled to go thru the motion of attempting to stop the play.    

I think he was comfortable using body positioning to create separation that way.  By being late to football it explains his lack of technique.  I hope by training with Chase and Nabers he tightens up his footwork.  At the beginning and catch point he is good.  Working on his breaks could do wonders.  

[Nephilim17]

RE: his combine interview.

 

II love this kid. Best "character" I can remember from a rookie — but he seems genuine as well and team centered and willing to put in the hard work.

 

Will he be a good or great receiver? I don't know.

Will I root for him and hope he's a huge success? Damn right.

[Andy1]

10 hours ago, wppete said:

 

Thats amazing stuff there. Some guys are just born with a double dose of athleticism and that’s him. It really shows his elite body control, on the ground or in the air and eye hand coordination.
 

I really really hope he can develop into a great receiver for the Bills. He has the potential of providing fans A+ entertainment value on and off the field. 

[TBBills Fan]

8 hours ago, Roundybout said:

I can accept a chiefs trade, but I draw the line at a patriots trade 

Imagine this board if Beane traded with the Pats and chiefs on night 1 of the draft lol

 

Beane wasn't lying he was getting a lot of offers for 32 and then 33.  

Edited May 4 by TBBills Fan

[That's No Moon]

9 hours ago, Warcodered said:

Can you imagine if that had happened back to back, this forum would have been a scorched crater.

 

[Coach Tuesday]

21 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I do wonder if his basketball experience actually has anything to do with his lack of separation on routes.    Basketball is largely played in close quarters and plays made against contested defense get a lot more "likes" from observers.   It's not even close.   I would often slow down on a breakaway to make the defender try hard and look personally defeated at the basket.   It's part of the fun of that game.   I can't relate to "posterizing" an opponent but uncontested dunks aren't sh!t compared to dunking ON an opponent.   Even if the reality is that the opponent was totally out-leveraged and was just compelled to go thru the motion of attempting to stop the play.    

I think there is something to this.  When you watch his highlights, he runs decent routes but he definitely seems to drift towards contact for some reason - like he seems to bend the route toward the defender a bit.  Like he needs to feel the defendant first before he can leverage himself away from his man.  It’s very odd to me and probably can be coached out of him but your basketball theory may help explain why.

Edited May 4 by Coach Tuesday

[Back2Buff]

Quote

“My brother knew. I told him ‘I’m gonna go do my two-year sentence up there and I’m gonna come back down South for my last year to tear that s--t up,'" Coleman said on the podcast. "I'm gonna go do what I need to do up there, become the person I need to become, learn what I need to learn. I belong down South."

“After that freshman year, I got to play with some great players, but I just felt like I don’t belong up north," Coleman continued. "I’m an SEC, ACC, I’m a down south type of guy. That’s me."

“I didn’t feel like I really liked the offense. I didn’t feel like the Big Ten system fit me as a player,"

 

The Bills are entering an era of running a Big Ten offense.  It's clear as day with the acquisitions that have come this offseason and how the offense operated when Brady took over.

 

Coleman interview

[3rdand12]

On 5/2/2024 at 11:17 AM, Logic said:

This is where I've come to on Coleman as well.

After my initial disappointment and teeth gnashing subsided and I allowed myself to become excited about what he seems to do WELL rather than what he DOESN'T do well, I've slowly accepted that he has the upside and skillset to potentially become a very good NFL receiver.....eventually.

The issue, as you point out, is that they need him NOW, and Beane said as much recently. 

Where I think Coleman would have the best chance to succeed is if he had been added to a WR depth chart that didn't need him to produce right away. That could use him situationally and scheme him up and bring him along slowly. 

I also think his best chance at success is to be a move player, a big slot, and to line up off the line of scrimmage more often than not.

Instead, he will seemingly have neither of those two luxuries. He joined a team that's gonna depend on him right away, and he joined a team that seems dead set on using him as a traditional X receiver. My worry about Coleman has thus shifted. I'm not as worried about him purely as a prospect -- clearly he's talented. Instead, I'm worried that his early workload and the way the Bills seem to want to use him will not be setting him up for success.

I really, REALLY hope they add a WR of significance after June 1st, be it via trade or free agency. Even someone who is only serviceable (like the current version of Odell Beckham) would take some pressure off of Coleman and would be able to provide some on-field mentorship.

As things stand now, I feel like there is a clear path to success for Keon Coleman, and that the Bills do not currently seem to be headed down that path.

Are they dead set on using him as an X. Not sure thats true.

I expected Beanes to score a exactly that and such my hesitation to get on board with Coleman.

 But I am coming around.

Maybe they are moving him around and using Samuel's speed outside.

But looking like Brady is just going to scheme guys open.

 Maybe it's Cook that runs the deep outside pass on occasion lol Maybe Claypool ??

 Gotta have some faith this time of year 

[UmbrellaMan]

“Keon Coleman (WR – Florida State)

Most similar players: Collin Johnson (0.900), Isaiah Hodgins (0.895), Auden Tate (0.883)

In college, Keon Coleman was a Sportscenter Top 10 play waiting to happen. The issue, as you may notice in those clips, is Coleman’s lack of ability to create separation. According to PFF, Coleman’s separation against single coverage last year ranked 449th out of 450 qualifying players — not great, Bob. Furthermore, when looking at Coleman’s charted stats he falls short in a lot of areas (photo via Reception Perception):

 

After transferring from Michigan State to Florida State for his final season, Coleman led the Seminoles in receiving yards while his targets per route run rose slightly from 22.9% to 24.9%. Also, despite running a 4.61-second 40-yard dash at the combine, Coleman reached a top speed of 20.36 miles per hour during the gauntlet drill, the fastest speed by any receiver over the last two seasons. Whether or not I like Coleman’s profile is a complex battle between my head (his production and efficiency are poor) and my heart (the dude can ball), so I think landing spot and development will matter slightly more than some of the other receivers.”

 

https://www.fantasypros.com/2024/04/2024-nfl-draft-player-comps-keon-coleman-xavier-legette-roman-wilson-ricky-pearsall/amp/

 

The pick was a total disappointment with McConkey right there. Non-WRs like Dejean or Newton would have been better selections than taking a player with so much bust risk. I’m still vexed at how the Bills scouting department thought THIS was their guy. 
 

The primary skill a NFL WR needs is the ability to get open (earn targets). Catching the ball is secondary. Catching the ball is akin to shooting free throws in basketball. There are many gym rats at the ymca who can do it better than NBA players. The skill is earning the free throws.

 

Edited May 5 by UmbrellaMan

[dickleyjones]

On 5/3/2024 at 11:00 AM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Kaiir was all that initially too.  

 

https://www.buffalobills.com/video/exclusive-behind-the-scenes-look-at-kaiir-elam-s-first-day-with-the-buffalo-bill

It's almost as if no one can predict how players will turn out

[JESSEFEFFER]

1 hour ago, UmbrellaMan said:

“Keon Coleman (WR – Florida State)

Most similar players: Collin Johnson (0.900), Isaiah Hodgins (0.895), Auden Tate (0.883)

In college, Keon Coleman was a Sportscenter Top 10 play waiting to happen. The issue, as you may notice in those clips, is Coleman’s lack of ability to create separation. According to PFF, Coleman’s separation against single coverage last year ranked 449th out of 450 qualifying players — not great, Bob. Furthermore, when looking at Coleman’s charted stats he falls short in a lot of areas (photo via Reception Perception):

 

After transferring from Michigan State to Florida State for his final season, Coleman led the Seminoles in receiving yards while his targets per route run rose slightly from 22.9% to 24.9%. Also, despite running a 4.61-second 40-yard dash at the combine, Coleman reached a top speed of 20.36 miles per hour during the gauntlet drill, the fastest speed by any receiver over the last two seasons. Whether or not I like Coleman’s profile is a complex battle between my head (his production and efficiency are poor) and my heart (the dude can ball), so I think landing spot and development will matter slightly more than some of the other receivers.”

 

https://www.fantasypros.com/2024/04/2024-nfl-draft-player-comps-keon-coleman-xavier-legette-roman-wilson-ricky-pearsall/amp/

 

The pick was a total disappointment with McConkey right there. Non-WRs like Dejean or Newton would have been better selections than taking a player with so much bust risk. I’m still vexed at how the Bills scouting department thought THIS was their guy. 
 

The primary skill a NFL WR needs is the ability to get open (earn targets). Catching the ball is secondary. Catching the ball is akin to shooting free throws in basketball. There are many gym rats at the ymca who can do it better than NBA players. The skill is earning the free throws.

 

Let's hope that Keon Coleman is the 2018 Josh Allen of the 2024 WR prospects.   I think I phrased that correctly.  The conversation feels like deja vu all over again-ish as it's the rematch of the analytics crowd vs. the scouting community.  This leads the discussion to whether he is self aware, can take coaching and is willing to do whatever it takes to shape his skillset to be successful against the best of the best and allow his freakishly rare athletic abilities dominate opponents.

[Solomon Grundy]

On 5/4/2024 at 8:28 AM, Back2Buff said:

 

The Bills are entering an era of running a Big Ten offense.  It's clear as day with the acquisitions that have come this offseason and how the offense operated when Brady took over.

 

Coleman interview

Didn't Brady coach in the SEC? Wasn't his receivers at LSU big, physical types? 

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, dickleyjones said:

It's almost as if no one can predict how players will turn out

 

Actually the point is that a prospect being likable and saying the right things at their introduction tells you nothing about how he will perform.

[Mat68]

6 hours ago, UmbrellaMan said:

“Keon Coleman (WR – Florida State)

Most similar players: Collin Johnson (0.900), Isaiah Hodgins (0.895), Auden Tate (0.883)

In college, Keon Coleman was a Sportscenter Top 10 play waiting to happen. The issue, as you may notice in those clips, is Coleman’s lack of ability to create separation. According to PFF, Coleman’s separation against single coverage last year ranked 449th out of 450 qualifying players — not great, Bob. Furthermore, when looking at Coleman’s charted stats he falls short in a lot of areas (photo via Reception Perception):

 

After transferring from Michigan State to Florida State for his final season, Coleman led the Seminoles in receiving yards while his targets per route run rose slightly from 22.9% to 24.9%. Also, despite running a 4.61-second 40-yard dash at the combine, Coleman reached a top speed of 20.36 miles per hour during the gauntlet drill, the fastest speed by any receiver over the last two seasons. Whether or not I like Coleman’s profile is a complex battle between my head (his production and efficiency are poor) and my heart (the dude can ball), so I think landing spot and development will matter slightly more than some of the other receivers.”

 

https://www.fantasypros.com/2024/04/2024-nfl-draft-player-comps-keon-coleman-xavier-legette-roman-wilson-ricky-pearsall/amp/

 

The pick was a total disappointment with McConkey right there. Non-WRs like Dejean or Newton would have been better selections than taking a player with so much bust risk. I’m still vexed at how the Bills scouting department thought THIS was their guy. 
 

The primary skill a NFL WR needs is the ability to get open (earn targets). Catching the ball is secondary. Catching the ball is akin to shooting free throws in basketball. There are many gym rats at the ymca who can do it better than NBA players. The skill is earning the free throws.

 

Not great.  However, simply looking at a prospects short comings doesn't paint a complete picture.  Simply thinking because Lladd being an undersized guy and unable to make it through a season in college means he cant in the NFL.  
 

I think one of Colemans best attributes is his fluidity and body control for a guy that large.  He is good at the line and the catch point.  I think Buffalo feels they can refine his route running at the top of the route.  Now the separation he didn't require in college is not a fatal flaw.  
 

What Coleman offers as strengths are traits you can’t learn or teach.  Buffalo thinks they can improve the route running and that will propel Coleman to meeting his potential. Time will tell. After seeing all the content he is in you can see why they believe in him.

Edited May 5 by Mat68

[Back2Buff]

22 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Didn't Brady coach in the SEC? Wasn't his receivers at LSU big, physical types? 

 

It's been well documented that Brady was the assistant to the assistant at LSU.  He didn't have say in the offense or personnel.  The WR there were Chase and Jefferson.

Edited May 6 by Back2Buff

[julian]

23 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Actually the point is that a prospect being likable and saying the right things at their introduction tells you nothing about how he will perform.

Correct, but it can tell you something about the necessary attitude needed to be coached, work hard and to learn how to become the best player possible.

 

 Much like all the analytics you’re using as a guide to his odds of success, it’s all part of an equation but Keon will ultimately decide how it plays out and because of his demeanour and attitude I like his chances.

 

No guarantees of course.

[Captain Hindsight]

On 5/3/2024 at 2:10 PM, LLCoolCy said:

Hate to see it NE.

 

What a bunch of cry babies 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, julian said:

Correct, but it can tell you something about the necessary attitude needed to be coached, work hard and to learn how to become the best player possible.

 

 Much like all the analytics you’re using as a guide to his odds of success, it’s all part of an equation but Keon will ultimately decide how it plays out and because of his demeanour and attitude I like his chances.

 

No guarantees of course.

 

It really doesn't tell you anything.   That's the point.  Actions speak louder than words.

 

Coleman's actions show a player who doesn't separate at the college level and has shown little nuance/refinement to his game.   Which is why his numbers are so modest at the NCAA level.   He's really raw and it's not like he has 4.3 speed to fall back on if he doesn't refine his game or the Bills don't make it an emphasis to FIND ways to get him open at the expense of giving those opportunities to other, less talented players who also need that to succeed.

 

Again,  case-in-point Kaiir Elam.   He came off as a highly studious, focused, hard working kid with a great attitude.   And his physical traits and pedigree were less in question than Coleman's are.   Hasn't worked out so far.  Hopefully it will this season......but coming off like a "great kid" at introduction means nothing.   Stephon Gilmore came off quite differently to Bills fans and has had a pretty brilliant career.   

[Warcodered]

Old Combine interview also showing how sharp he is.