Rd 2, Pick 33: WR Keon Coleman, Florida State

[Mikey152]

1 minute ago, Logic said:

Thanks, Shaw.

I DO think, as you say in your last paragraph, that he has a good chance to succeed. And maybe I should have more faith in the coaches to help ensure that he does.

I think what I fear is that -- given his young age and how raw he is, generally speaking -- that it might take him a while to succeed. That he might be a premiere receiver in this league by year three, but the Bills very much need him in year one.

Now, if the Bills had made moves to NOT need him so much in year one, then it would be a different story. But they didn't. If Coleman isn't being counted on to be a big factor until, say, week 6, then it currently means that Mack Hollins or Justin Shorter or Tyrell Shavers is being counted on during that time instead, and you'll have to forgive me for being not at all confident in that being a good thing.

I already mentioned strongly hoping that Beane keeps adding to the WR room, and you mentioned that you think he's likely not done adding there. I really hope this is the case. Right now, for the Bills to succeed optimally on offense, they're going to NEED Coleman to hit the ground running. If they put themselves in less of a position to NEED that by adding a capable veteran, I'll feel a lot better about things.

Two things:

 

First, the nice thing about Coleman is his best attribute(s) are related to his natural athleticism. So, while he might not be a focal point at the start of the season, he CAN be useful on the field day 1 playing what I would call the "Gabe Davis" role (ie the X receiver who blocks, runs a limited route tree and uncovers on scramble drills). I think his ball skills compared to Gabe give him a chance to be an upgrade in that role from day 1.

 

Second, I think the Diggs targets are going to Kincaid, Shakir and Samuel (or maybe even Hamler works his way into the rotation). 12 personnel, for example, takes lot of pressure off any outside receiver.

 

Eventually, maybe Coleman becomes a force...but I think just asking him to win in the redzone and on scramble drills, pick up some YAC in the quick pass game, and do a half decent job as a blocker is all he really needs to do to help this offense be efficient.  

[Sweats]

1 hour ago, Mikey152 said:

Two things:

 

First, the nice thing about Coleman is his best attribute(s) are related to his natural athleticism. So, while he might not be a focal point at the start of the season, he CAN be useful on the field day 1 playing what I would call the "Gabe Davis" role (ie the X receiver who blocks, runs a limited route tree and uncovers on scramble drills). I think his ball skills compared to Gabe give him a chance to be an upgrade in that role from day 1.

 

Second, I think the Diggs targets are going to Kincaid, Shakir and Samuel (or maybe even Hamler works his way into the rotation). 12 personnel, for example, takes lot of pressure off any outside receiver.

 

Eventually, maybe Coleman becomes a force...but I think just asking him to win in the redzone and on scramble drills, pick up some YAC in the quick pass game, and do a half decent job as a blocker is all he really needs to do to help this offense be efficient.  

 

 

 

 

Which is exactly what FSU asked him to do, so the transition for him from college to the NFL won't be too great.

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

Thanks, Shaw.

I DO think, as you say in your last paragraph, that he has a good chance to succeed. And maybe I should have more faith in the coaches to help ensure that he does.

I think what I fear is that -- given his young age and how raw he is, generally speaking -- that it might take him a while to succeed. That he might be a premiere receiver in this league by year three, but the Bills very much need him in year one.

Now, if the Bills had made moves to NOT need him so much in year one, then it would be a different story. But they didn't. If Coleman isn't being counted on to be a big factor until, say, week 6, then it currently means that Mack Hollins or Justin Shorter or Tyrell Shavers is being counted on during that time instead, and you'll have to forgive me for being not at all confident in that being a good thing.

I already mentioned strongly hoping that Beane keeps adding to the WR room, and you mentioned that you think he's likely not done adding there. I really hope this is the case. Right now, for the Bills to succeed optimally on offense, they're going to NEED Coleman to hit the ground running. If they put themselves in less of a position to NEED that by adding a capable veteran, I'll feel a lot better about things.

Thanks for this.  

 

I'd only say that, having seen and heard Coleman for a week now, and seeing what the Bills saw, I seriously doubt that they think they'll have to wait for year three.  I'm sure they expect him to move into serious playing time in year one, just like Rousseau, Kincaid, Cook, and others.  And I agree with that assessment.   He has special physical talent, and he's tuned in to what the position takes.   I expect he'll be soaking up information from last week through Labor Day, and the Bills will get him the field in live action pretty quickly.  (They started Edmunds from day 1, and he had more to learn than Coleman.)

[Warcodered]

15 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Thanks for this.  

 

I'd only say that, having seen and heard Coleman for a week now, and seeing what the Bills saw, I seriously doubt that they think they'll have to wait for year three.  I'm sure they expect him to move into serious playing time in year one, just like Rousseau, Kincaid, Cook, and others.  And I agree with that assessment.   He has special physical talent, and he's tuned in to what the position takes.   I expect he'll be soaking up information from last week through Labor Day, and the Bills will get him the field in live action pretty quickly.  (They started Edmunds from day 1, and he had more to learn than Coleman.)

Yeah people sounded like they thought FSU asked him to do a lot at FSU so he's already got a good understanding of the route tree. More than that from his interviews the guy seems very smart and having transferred he's already got experience learning a new system. If I had to guess what the big thing developing with him along the way will be it'll be technique. I just get the feeling he could really improve quickly.

[Putin]

2 hours ago, Logic said:

This is where I've come to on Coleman as well.

After my initial disappointment and teeth gnashing subsided and I allowed myself to become excited about what he seems to do WELL rather than what he DOESN'T do well, I've slowly accepted that he has the upside and skillset to potentially become a very good NFL receiver.....eventually.

The issue, as you point out, is that they need him NOW, and Beane said as much recently. 

Where I think Coleman would have the best chance to succeed is if he had been added to a WR depth chart that didn't need him to produce right away. That could use him situationally and scheme him up and bring him along slowly. 

I also think his best chance at success is to be a move player, a big slot, and to line up off the line of scrimmage more often than not.

Instead, he will seemingly have neither of those two luxuries. He joined a team that's gonna depend on him right away, and he joined a team that seems dead set on using him as a traditional X receiver. My worry about Coleman has thus shifted. I'm not as worried about him purely as a prospect -- clearly he's talented. Instead, I'm worried that his early workload and the way the Bills seem to want to use him will not be setting him up for success.

I really, REALLY hope they add a WR of significance after June 1st, be it via trade or free agency. Even someone who is only serviceable (like the current version of Odell Beckham) would take some pressure off of Coleman and would be able to provide some on-field mentorship.

As things stand now, I feel like there is a clear path to success for Keon Coleman, and that the Bills do not currently seem to be headed down that path.

I have to disagree about pressure on a 20 year old rookie to produce right away  , I think Kincaid , Samuel and Shakir will see more targets then Colman at least trough the first half of the season , 

[No_Matter_What]

Week after the draft, after watching Keon, listening to him and reading about him all I can think of is Josh scramble play where he gets close to the sideline and unleashes 30-40 yard bomb to Keon who is "covered" but doesn't care and catches the damn ball for huge gain.

 

Everything won't be perfect but these plays will make up for it.

 

Season can't start soon enough!

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Warcodered said:

Yeah people sounded like they thought FSU asked him to do a lot at FSU so he's already got a good understanding of the route tree. More than that from his interviews the guy seems very smart and having transferred he's already got experience learning a new system. If I had to guess what the big thing developing with him along the way will be it'll be technique. I just get the feeling he could really improve quickly.

And not simply technique, but getting used to the level of talent.   He'll be covered MUCH better, every week, and that's what will force-feed him new and sharper technique.  He'll need the enhanced skills to deal with the caliber of defender he'll see.  That's hard work, raising your level of play like that.  For a few, they're naturally there, but for a lot of rookies, it takes a year or two.  The good news is that he seems understand completely that that is what he has to do.  And he seems to have he mindset to get right to work at that goal.  

 

I agree, he could improve quickly.   The ingredients seem to be there for him to be really good as early as midseason.  It's just that not everyone, ingredients or not, makes that leap that quickly. 

 

The Bills would love it if he exploded, but I don't think they need that out of him.   I think the Bills' plan is to get 700-900 yards out of him, beginning early in the season and building from there.  They expect over 1000 from someone else - Shakir or Kincaid or Samuel, and 600-800 from the other two.   One guy above 1000 and three others from maybe 600-900.   Then you get miscellaneous other receivers, including Knox, the running backs, etc. get another 600-800.   4,000 yards.   Not a lights out number, but if you're running a truly balanced attack, you just aren't putting the ball in the air as much in a pass=first philosophy.  

[Shaw66]

32 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

Week after the draft, after watching Keon, listening to him and reading about him all I can think of is Josh scramble play where he gets close to the sideline and unleashes 30-40 yard bomb to Keon who is "covered" but doesn't care and catches the damn ball for huge gain.

 

Everything won't be perfect but these plays will make up for it. 

 

Season can't start soon enough!

You know, I really hadn't seen it until you described it.  You're right!  

 

He is most likely to become the answer to prayers.  And when prayers start getting answered, Josh is unbeatable.  

 

Of course all of this Keon will dominate talk is most likely wishful fan-think, and the reality may be uglier.   But however it plays out, ultimately I think you're right - Josh and Keon are going to be a pair, the main event.  The others will be role players in the big show - Kincaid and Shakir and Samuel.  Even if it isn't a big deal in total yards over the season, some of the plays are going to be big plays.  Whether he knew it or not, Josh has been waiting for a guy just like Keon.  

[Sweats]

4 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

You know, I really hadn't seen it until you described it.  You're right!  

 

He is most likely to become the answer to prayers.  And when prayers start getting answered, Josh is unbeatable.  

 

Of course all of this Keon will dominate talk is most likely wishful fan-think, and the reality may be uglier.   But however it plays out, ultimately I think you're right - Josh and Keon are going to be a pair, the main event.  The others will be role players in the big show - Kincaid and Shakir and Samuel.  Even if it isn't a big deal in total yards over the season, some of the plays are going to be big plays.  Whether he knew it or not, Josh has been waiting for a guy just like Keon.  

 

 

 

 

Let's be honest, he's no Lynn Swann, however, he's a workhorse and he'll push for the extra yards.

I'm looking forward to the energy that Coleman and JA will bring to the field every week......they'll feed off each other and create something special.

[3rdand12]

20 hours ago, VW82 said:

The more I think about this pick and what we saw from Brady last year, the more I'm talking myself into Coleman being a good fit. (I have spoken...to myself)

 

Brady did the complimentary football thing but when we did pass it was a lot of hitches and screens...basically lots of stuff close to the LOS with some verticals mixed in, not a lot of complicated routes. Get him the ball quick and let him YAC or block/pick for guys.

 

I think part of our collective fan problem is we've adopted the mindset that Brady is going to really open up the offense and make it his own in year 2 in which case we maybe we have a raw rookie that will struggle. But what if that's not the plan? What if Brady's 2023 offense is the offense? Coleman can do that. 

This is a good post. Not just because I agree mostly

 Brady simplifying last year , was a reset maybe. A change at least though right ? Or well thought out.

 This year starts out rebuilding the Basics (simplified) and then grow from there from seeing what is working.

Get that down well , across 11+ guys , and then build onto those fundamentals that are needed and work your way up

 Idk that is what he is doing but I would be on board. And I think you are close to the truth VW

 

Good dialogue to be had over this.

Whats Brady thinking for this season ?

 Considering the players in hand currently ?

Some one smarter than me   should consider a thread , if not already running. 😅

 

So includes near all of you  lol

 

 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Sweats said:

 

 

 

 

Let's be honest, he's no Lynn Swann, however, he's a workhorse and he'll push for the extra yards.

I'm looking forward to the energy that Coleman and JA will bring to the field every week......they'll feed off each other and create something special.

After I watched his highlight reel, my reaction was "Mike Evans."   He's not as big Evans, at least not yet, and he isn't quite as physically tough as Evans, but he makes you wonder why this guy is open so much, just like Evans.  Not the fastest, not the quickest, not anything except rock solid catching ability.  

 

Feed off each other is correct.  Josh will love throwing to him, and if that's true, he'll be getting playing time sooner rather than later.  

Edited May 2 by Shaw66

[Augie]

22 minutes ago, Sweats said:

 

 

 

 

Let's be honest, he's no Lynn Swann, however, he's a workhorse and he'll push for the extra yards.

I'm looking forward to the energy that Coleman and JA will bring to the field every week......they'll feed off each other and create something special.

 

It’s funny you say that. As we know, Keon isn’t the fastest, and his routes don’t look the sharpest to me. But what does appear elite is his body control. I’m sure his basketball helped him with that, just like a boy named Lynn taking ballet classes benefitted. The acrobatic catch in the Super Bowl by Swann (the one that got him in the HOF) looked kind of “Coleman-esque”. 

 

You mentioned the name and that’s what popped into my mind.   🤷‍♂️

[3rdand12]

20 hours ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

Samuel can stretch the field.  

We haven't seen it much though. I think he can run a vertical and catch it.

[buffaloboyinATL]

54 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:

We haven't seen it much though. I think he can run a vertical and catch it.

Agreed, mostly because he was mis-used, (in my opinion) and has only played with mediocre QB's thus far in his career. 

 

That being said, Next Gen Stats (@nextgenstats on TwitterX), and Cover1 support the case that his physical capabilities are still there.  

 

1. According to NextGen, Samuel averaged 9.08 mph within the first second of his routes in 2023. They call it "burst" He was the 3rd quickest in the NFL for receivers with at least 300 routes. Bills ranked 29th in the league in that category last year, at 7.95 mph.  (Gabe was 8.25 mph and Stef was 7.73)

 

2. Cover1 posted that Samuel was tied for 13th last season in average separation with 3.3 yards.  

 

Those are elite numbers. Now Josh just needs to get him the ball, and he could have a great season.  That burst will keep teams honest.  I am honestly starting to get excited. There is a lot of talent on this Offense!

[3rdand12]

30 minutes ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

Agreed, mostly because he was mis-used, (in my opinion) and has only played with mediocre QB's thus far in his career. 

 

That being said, Next Gen Stats (@nextgenstats on TwitterX), and Cover1 support the case that his physical capabilities are still there.  

 

1. According to NextGen, Samuel averaged 9.08 mph within the first second of his routes in 2023. They call it "burst" He was the 3rd quickest in the NFL for receivers with at least 300 routes. Bills ranked 29th in the league in that category last year, at 7.95 mph.  (Gabe was 8.25 mph and Stef was 7.73)

 

2. Cover1 posted that Samuel was tied for 13th last season in average separation with 3.3 yards.  

 

Those are elite numbers. Now Josh just needs to get him the ball, and he could have a great season.  That burst will keep teams honest.  I am honestly starting to get excited. There is a lot of talent on this Offense!

Under rated for good reason. But as you peel back a few layers, and the previous Off and QB situations.

 Easy to see this guy might be a formidable weapon in Bills offense  !

 Thanks for details

[ColoradoBills]

On 4/28/2024 at 8:12 PM, BuffaloBillyG said:

Yeah, that's my thing. I don't believe he's going to be asked to run straight line deep routes very much. So how does Brady use him and what can they do to incorporate what he does do well. Out routes? Hook routes? I think he's going to feast in that 11-20 yard range...and I don't think anyone is going to out hustle or out work him to the ball. 

 

That was always a big complaint I had with Gabe Davis. Seemed like far too often when a DB got position on him to make a play on the ball Gabe was a bit passive. Resulted it a fairly high INT% when targeted. I don't see that problem with Coleman. 

 

For every 7.7 receptions Gabe gave up an interception to the defender.

Compare that to Kincaid, who gave up an interception to the defender once every 36.5 receptions.

 

These are receptions not targets, but I like this stat better.  It's more of the risk/reward if you are the QB.

I sure hope Coleman is more in line with Dalton!

[Maine-iac]

Just rewatched the Cover1 report on Diggs getting traded and this segment here says a lot about how and why we ended up with Coleman.  It might be part of a Brady makeover to have a big wideout who lends himself to RPO's and bubble screens.   Definitely worth a listen.

 

[buffaloboyinATL]

5 hours ago, No_Matter_What said:

Week after the draft, after watching Keon, listening to him and reading about him all I can think of is Josh scramble play where he gets close to the sideline and unleashes 30-40 yard bomb to Keon who is "covered" but doesn't care and catches the damn ball for huge gain.

 

I love the imagery! Even though it gave me flash backs to that damn catch by Justin Jefferson. (not that I'm comparing the 2)

[Warriorspikes51]

WINNING

 

 

 

 

Training with Nabers and Chase! 
 

You can bet the first half of that interview clip really impressed the staff

Keon quickly becoming a favorite around the league

 

 

[Augie]

8 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

WINNING

 

 

 

 

Training with Nabers and Chase! 
 

You can bet the first half of that interview clip really impressed the staff

Keon quickly becoming a favorite around the league

 

 

 

I’m guessing his name plate will not be on the bar at Dave & Busters during his rookie year.