Rd 2, Pick 33: WR Keon Coleman, Florida State

[DJB]

19 minutes ago, VW82 said:

The more I think about this pick and what we saw from Brady last year, the more I'm talking myself into Coleman being a good fit. (I have spoken...to myself)

 

Brady did the complimentary football thing but when we did pass it was a lot of hitches and screens...basically lots of stuff close to the LOS with some verticals mixed in, not a lot of complicated routes. Get him the ball quick and let him YAC or block/pick for guys.

 

I think part of our collective fan problem is we've adopted the mindset that Brady is going to really open up the offense and make it his own in year 2 in which case we maybe we have a raw rookie that will struggle. But what if that's not the plan? What if Brady's 2023 offense is the offense? Coleman can do that. 

 

 

We still need a deep threat though otherwise opposing defenses will continue to just press us and the safeties will move in towards the line of scrimmage and shorten the field. 

 

[Andy1]

 Keon looks like the type of receiver who can function in crappy weather that may impact pass accuracy. He’s also physical enough so hopefully he can play through contact in the post season when the refs swallow their whistles and don’t call PI on grabby defenders - like what KC usually does. His one-handed catches seem so casual. 

[buffaloboyinATL]

1 hour ago, DJB said:

 

 

We still need a deep threat though otherwise opposing defenses will continue to just press us and the safeties will move in towards the line of scrimmage and shorten the field. 

 

Samuel can stretch the field.  

[VW82]

2 hours ago, DJB said:

 

 

We still need a deep threat though otherwise opposing defenses will continue to just press us and the safeties will move in towards the line of scrimmage and shorten the field. 

 

I think all four of Kinkaid, Coleman, Shakir, and Samuel will be deep threats: the first two with their size/hands, and the last two with their speed to take the top off. 

 

The verticals in Brady's offense aren't going anywhere, and I bet we hit on more of those this year because we're going to be a good running team from the jump. My point was more that we're probably not going to see a bunch of double moves and hard digs across the middle because we didn't see much of that from Brady last year, so it's not that big of a deal that I don't trust Coleman to beat anyone with that stuff. 

Edited May 2 by VW82

[DJB]

52 minutes ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

Samuel can stretch the field.  

From what I recall he hasn’t been a very proficient deep threat . He has the speed yes but hasn’t converted many opportunities 

[Warcodered]

 

[buffaloboyinATL]

7 minutes ago, DJB said:

From what I recall he hasn’t been a very proficient deep threat . He has the speed yes but hasn’t converted many opportunities 

He was more effective with it in Carolina, (with Brady) than he was  in Washington. 

[Warriorspikes51]

23 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

 

that is fantastic.  I think he really loves football and will learn very fast.  He was successful at Michigan St & FSU…still only 20

 

there are some annoying cons about the draft selection…but there are a lot of positives and his ceiling is quite high.

 

here’s to hoping he’s the 2020 version of Josh Allen as a rookie WR haha!

 

Keon’s Gaunlet drill looked elite.
Hitting over 20mph while catching passes with a smooth powerful stride.  
 

P.Nacua ran a very similar 40 at 4.57

but like Keon was high end in the gaunlet hitting 20mph 

Edited May 2 by Warriorspikes51

[wppete]

23 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

 

Wow. The more I learn about this guy the more impressed I am and am convinced he was the right pick for the Bills. This guy is very smart, knows the details about football and is a freak athlete in a freak body. Josh is going to love him. 

[Beck Water]

Have we had this one yet?

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39639715/keon-coleman-florida-state-wr-combine-scenes-nfl-draft

[Fan in Chicago]

35 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

 

and ends casually with "...really its just that.."

 

Tell me again that he is a rookie and only 20 years old

 

[Shaw66]

31 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

 

Now we're starting to find out why this guy was drafted.   This guy has some outstanding physical attributes that we've all seen on film, and it's becoming clear that he has a real head on his shoulders.   We're seeing multiple interviews that show his maturity, his dedication, his competitiveness, and now this.   It's a one-minute seminar in the details of pass receiving.  He's a serious dude.  

 

I'm realizing that Keon is more than I first imagined.  

[AKC]

54 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

that is fantastic.  I think he really loves football and will learn very fast.  He was successful at Michigan St & FSU…still only 20

 

there are some annoying cons about the draft selection…but there are a lot of positives and his ceiling is quite high.

 

here’s to hoping he’s the 2020 version of Josh Allen as a rookie WR haha!

 

Keon’s Gaunlet drill looked elite.
Hitting over 20mph while catching passes with a smooth powerful stride.  
 

P.Nacua ran a very similar 40 at 4.57

but like Keon was high end in the gaunlet hitting 20mph 

 

While I'd say he outsmarted the gauntlet drill I agree with you about a lot of that- so many of the most reliable and productive receivers in the last 15 years have similarities to this kid's physical and athletic tangibles. Josh should thrive with a go-to that's not 5-9 and doing everything possible to avoid contact on every single play.

 

It's also amusing/disappointing to see Bills Fans, and I know some percentage of them actually are, who would prefer not to simply voice their opinion and convictions with reserve, but instead choose to leave themselves open to being wrong in hundreds (or possibly 1,000s) of posts! At some point in adulthood you learn to take the weight off the pedal even if you're amped up.

[Richard Noggin]

3 hours ago, DJB said:

 

We still need a deep threat though otherwise opposing defenses will continue to just press us and the safeties will move in towards the line of scrimmage and shorten the field. 

 

 

But were defenses continually pressing the Bills and compressing their coverages? From what I recall, and what I've seen from analysts and team sources, opposing defenses mostly relied on dropping their DBs (post-snap) into deeper shell coverages, banking on QB17's impatience/reluctance to continually take the underneath routes/checkdowns. Heck, recall Dallas' doomed plan to defend the Bills offense by exclusively fielding light nickel and dime packages. 

 

Allen was definitely blitzed in 2023, and there were definitely some coordinated zero-coverages, but overall the defenses who best frustrated Allen and Co utilized LOS disruption but with deeper coverage drops designed to capitalize on QB17's tendency to look downfield. The Jets are the best example for this. They mostly utilized deep safety coverages post-snap, daring Allen to take the checkdowns and underneath stuff, but also trying to speed him up with their pass rush. Meanwhile they entrusted Williams and Moseley to clamp down on their RB/TE responsibilities.

[LABILLBACKER]

2 hours ago, Warcodered said:

 

He's smart....he's funny....he's so damn authentic....he's going to fit in just fine....

[BADOLBILZ]

14 hours ago, DJB said:

 

 

We still need a deep threat though otherwise opposing defenses will continue to just press us and the safeties will move in towards the line of scrimmage and shorten the field. 

 

 

 

Yeah the upside is that he's built for playoff football (like Rashee Rice) and is young and athletic so he has a lot of room to improve.

 

The downside is that he is raw as hell and not exceptionally fast.

 

I heard a Davante Adams comp to Coleman a while back...........and that kinda' resonated with me.

 

Adams isn't really fast but is a tremendously smooth, physical athlete with great hands and leaping ability like Coleman.

 

Adams really struggled his first 2 seasons.......despite immense success in college and playing with an All Pro QB in Aaron Rodgers.

 

Wouldn't surprise me if it took Coleman a few years to translate his skills into being able to get open at the NFL level.

 

I could easily see him having a longer career and play better than a number of the guys drafted before him but I could also see him looking like a bust compared to them early on.

 

And that's the tough part.........they need him to perform NOW.    Hopefully Brady can unlock him early in his career.   Maybe play mostly condensed sets like the Rams did with Nacua last year so the X is basically almost a slot receiver.  Manufacture some easy-open throws and RAC yards etc..    If they just line him up outside and hope he wins I expect it could be a long wait for that to happen. 

[Logic]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

And that's the tough part.........they need him to perform NOW.    Hopefully Brady can unlock him early in his career.   Maybe play mostly condensed sets like the Rams did with Nacua last year so the X is basically almost a slot receiver.  Manufacture some easy-open throws and RAC yards etc..    If they just line him up outside and hope he wins I expect it could be a long wait for that to happen. 

This is where I've come to on Coleman as well.

After my initial disappointment and teeth gnashing subsided and I allowed myself to become excited about what he seems to do WELL rather than what he DOESN'T do well, I've slowly accepted that he has the upside and skillset to potentially become a very good NFL receiver.....eventually.

The issue, as you point out, is that they need him NOW, and Beane said as much recently. 

Where I think Coleman would have the best chance to succeed is if he had been added to a WR depth chart that didn't need him to produce right away. That could use him situationally and scheme him up and bring him along slowly. 

I also think his best chance at success is to be a move player, a big slot, and to line up off the line of scrimmage more often than not.

Instead, he will seemingly have neither of those two luxuries. He joined a team that's gonna depend on him right away, and he joined a team that seems dead set on using him as a traditional X receiver. My worry about Coleman has thus shifted. I'm not as worried about him purely as a prospect -- clearly he's talented. Instead, I'm worried that his early workload and the way the Bills seem to want to use him will not be setting him up for success.

I really, REALLY hope they add a WR of significance after June 1st, be it via trade or free agency. Even someone who is only serviceable (like the current version of Odell Beckham) would take some pressure off of Coleman and would be able to provide some on-field mentorship.

As things stand now, I feel like there is a clear path to success for Keon Coleman, and that the Bills do not currently seem to be headed down that path.

[hondo in seattle]

Thoughts about wideout speed.

Samuel has speed.  While not routinely used as a deep threat, his speed combined with Josh's arm will force defenses to respect the deep ball.

 

Shakir isn't slow.  

 

Gabe was considered a deep threat despite having an average-ish 40 time.  Sometimes 40 times don't tell the whole story.  While a bit slower than Gabe (according to GPS tracking), Coleman might find ways to get open deep occasionally.  

 

With so many teams playing two-high shells and otherwise trying to neuter Josh's arm advantage, we need to get proficient at the short and midrange game.  Kincaid is helping there.  Coleman will too.  

 

If Brady's a good OC, he should be able to scheme up a diverse and productive aerial attack.  Though, I admit, it would be fun to have a young Lee Evans on this roster too to make teams truly afraid of the long ball.  

 

 

[Shaw66]

15 minutes ago, Logic said:

This is where I've come to on Coleman as well.

After my initial disappointment and teeth gnashing subsided and I allowed myself to become excited about what he seems to do WELL rather than what he DOESN'T do well, I've slowly accepted that he has the upside and skillset to potentially become a very good NFL receiver.....eventually.

The issue, as you point out, is that they need him NOW, and Beane said as much recently. 

Where I think Coleman would have the best chance to succeed is if he had been added to a WR depth chart that didn't need him to produce right away. That could use him situationally and scheme him up and bring him along slowly. 

I also think his best chance at success is to be a move player, a big slot, and to line up off the line of scrimmage more often than not.

Instead, he will seemingly have neither of those two luxuries. He joined a team that's gonna depend on him right away, and he joined a team that seems dead set on using him as a traditional X receiver. My worry about Coleman has thus shifted. I'm not as worried about him purely as a prospect -- clearly he's talented. Instead, I'm worried that his early workload and the way the Bills seem to want to use him will not be setting him up for success.

I really, REALLY hope they add a WR of significance after June 1st, be it via trade or free agency. Even someone who is only serviceable (like the current version of Odell Beckham) would take some pressure off of Coleman and would be able to provide some on-field mentorship.

As things stand now, I feel like there is a clear path to success for Keon Coleman, and that the Bills do not currently seem to be headed down that path.

Frankly, I think you need to have a little faith in Beane and McDermott.  I hear all of what you say, and I saw Bado's language that you quoted.   I think your fears are unfounded.  

 

McDermott doesn't put guys on the field for extended plays if they can't do what they're expected to do.   They will move Coleman along at the pace that is appropriate for him.  

 

I don't know Xs and Os, but I think you're overly concerned about him getting off the line of scrimmage.   First, in his first snaps in the regular season, the coaches are going to put him in position to get easy releases, however they do it.  They're going to put him in positions where he can succeed.  In other words, I am confident they understand the "path to success" idea, and they will be mindful of that.  In other words, I don't think Bado's correct (surprise, surprise) that the Bills will throw him out there because they need a #1 receiver.  He'll play as he's ready to play. 

 

I'm not ready to assume that Coleman will not have a major role early in the season.   He may grow into that role faster than we think.   But on the assumption that he simply isn't ready to carry a big load, then I can't tell you who the starting group will be.  I think Beane's not done working on the receiver room, but if he is, it's because they're confident they can get it done in the front half of the season while they're waiting for Coleman to get up to speed.  

 

Personally, I think we'll be seeing a lot of Coleman by game six, if not earlier.  I think they'll find enough ways for him to succeed that he'll start seeing the field regularly, and once that happens, he'll start making plays that get the attention of the defenses.  

 

I was just looking at his college stats.  Maybe he benefitted from step down in competition at Florida State, but 11 receiving touchdowns in 50 catches is eye-opening, as is #3 nationally in punt returns.  In his early snaps, I think the Bills are going to be looking for opportunities where he can get open with some room to run after the catch.  

 

I'm not worried.  Sure, he could flop, but I don't think so. 

 

 

[Logic]

4 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Frankly, I think you need to have a little faith in Beane and McDermott.  I hear all of what you say, and I saw Bado's language that you quoted.   I think your fears are unfounded.  

 

McDermott doesn't put guys on the field for extended plays if they can't do what they're expected to do.   They will move Coleman along at the pace that is appropriate for him.  

 

I don't know Xs and Os, but I think you're overly concerned about him getting off the line of scrimmage.   First, in his first snaps in the regular season, the coaches are going to put him in position to get easy releases, however they do it.  They're going to put him in positions where he can succeed.  In other words, I am confident they understand the "path to success" idea, and they will be mindful of that.  In other words, I don't think Bado's correct (surprise, surprise) that the Bills will throw him out there because they need a #1 receiver.  He'll play as he's ready to play. 

 

I'm not ready to assume that Coleman will not have a major role early in the season.   He may grow into that role faster than we think.   But on the assumption that he simply isn't ready to carry a big load, then I can't tell you who the starting group will be.  I think Beane's not done working on the receiver room, but if he is, it's because they're confident they can get it done in the front half of the season while they're waiting for Coleman to get up to speed.  

 

Personally, I think we'll be seeing a lot of Coleman by game six, if not earlier.  I think they'll find enough ways for him to succeed that he'll start seeing the field regularly, and once that happens, he'll start making plays that get the attention of the defenses.  

 

I was just looking at his college stats.  Maybe he benefitted from step down in competition at Florida State, but 11 receiving touchdowns in 50 catches is eye-opening, as is #3 nationally in punt returns.  In his early snaps, I think the Bills are going to be looking for opportunities where he can get open with some room to run after the catch.  

 

I'm not worried.  Sure, he could flop, but I don't think so. 

 

 

Thanks, Shaw.

I DO think, as you say in your last paragraph, that he has a good chance to succeed. And maybe I should have more faith in the coaches to help ensure that he does.

I think what I fear is that -- given his young age and how raw he is, generally speaking -- that it might take him a while to succeed. That he might be a premiere receiver in this league by year three, but the Bills very much need him in year one.

Now, if the Bills had made moves to NOT need him so much in year one, then it would be a different story. But they didn't. If Coleman isn't being counted on to be a big factor until, say, week 6, then it currently means that Mack Hollins or Justin Shorter or Tyrell Shavers is being counted on during that time instead, and you'll have to forgive me for being not at all confident in that being a good thing.

I already mentioned strongly hoping that Beane keeps adding to the WR room, and you mentioned that you think he's likely not done adding there. I really hope this is the case. Right now, for the Bills to succeed optimally on offense, they're going to NEED Coleman to hit the ground running. If they put themselves in less of a position to NEED that by adding a capable veteran, I'll feel a lot better about things.