Rd 2, Pick 33: WR Keon Coleman, Florida State

[section122]

4 hours ago, Logic said:

I mean...I see at least a LITTLE reason to sweat it.

It's not just one thing, ya know?

Coleman's actual college statistics, his YPRR, his Reception Perception graphic from Matt Harmon...it's a pile of things.

Of course there are always outliers. The thread in the Tweet I just posted mentions that DK Metcalf and Terry McLaurin didn't clear the 2.0 YPRR threshold either, and obviously both guys are good NFL players. So it's not a guarantee, by any means. People beat the odds.

Still, to completely disregard this stuff when it's actually a pretty decent sample size over several years strikes me as fingers in your ears, "la la la I can't hear you" kind of thinking.

Those of us that didn't love Coleman as a prospect have just as much and as valid a set of reasons for reaching that conclusion as the people who look at the same prospect and feel optimistic that he'll succeed.

He's a Bill now, so I will obviously be rooting for him. He's a very likeable guy, and the Bills NEED him to be good. But I'm not going to suddenly pretend I loved the pick. That would be dishonest of me.

 

The one issue I have with analytics in football is there is so much context.  What are the receivers expected to do, what are the reads for the qb, how GOOD is the qb, how much time does the qb have to let the route develop, and so on.

 

Coleman was in the group of receivers that I was okay with being drafted.  The trade downs were just a cherry on top but the thing I look for when watching college is guys who can take over the game.  Coleman did that in the LSU game, against an SEC opponent he was the best player on the field.  With 2 other guys who would go in the first round at receiver and the heisman trophy winner.  He also took over the SU game (admittedly a much weaker opponent) and his one handed grab was an absolute thing of beauty.

 

Time will tell but he has as good a shot as any wr drafted being successful in part because of the situation he finds himself in. 

 

3 hours ago, Logic said:

Just to add to my previous post about the YPRR thing. This goes back to 2015. 1,000 yard season producers in the NFL are highlighted in bold.

A little scary, no?

(also, Hi Justin Shorter, we see you)

 

Yes and no.  Obviously not a great list to find yourself on however, how many of these guys were thought of as high round picks?  There are a ton of names on there that I don't recognize and many of those that I do were mid to late round picks.  Additionally, AD Mitchell and Xavier Legette who many wanted are both lower than Coleman on this list.  So if it concerns you for Coleman it should also concern you for them.

 

Lastly, this must not be a stat the Bills pay much mind to.  I see Shorter and McCloud on there lol.  

[NewEra]

just love this kid.  ❤️ 

[3rdand12]

11 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

I have noticed that you have a habit of announcing that you have spoken when you "speak," which is redundant, though rhetorically memorable. I hope it does not become a contagion that results in an unspoken rule. It would be tiresome if everyone who posts informs folks that they have spoken.

 

I have spoken.

It is from an older language translated as an Orator has finished with a proclamation.

 I deem it so, was also used.

Means , No more is to be discussed.

And now

I have spoken  😇

[Rich Stadium Original]

Not sure if this has been mentioned yet in this thread, but just came across the fact that Colemans 40 time is nearly identical to what Puka Nacia put up at the combine. (.04 difference) ..it slid Nacua back to the 5th round.

  I think if Coleman had anywhere near the season Nacua did, most Bills fans would be pretty happy.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

20 minutes ago, NewEra said:

just love this kid.  ❤️ 

Honestly wow, learned a lot about him. He said he has no life outside of football. He sounds like a film junkie. Wants to be close with his QB. Watch film with his QB. 
 

And he golfs a little!

[Turk71]

9 hours ago, BigDingus said:

 

But college stats don't really mean much when it comes to NFL production. Anyone remember how negative many were on using a 3rd round pick on Dawson Knox? 

 

What was special about a guy whose best season was 300 rec yards, or having 0 TDs through his entire college career? Thankfully, Beane knew better than I did. 

Knox is not special in any way and is ridiculously overpaid.

He scored 9 tds one season because he was Josh Allen's main RZ target but he's scored a total of 13tds in his other 4 seasons, 3.25 per year.  He's gained less than 400 yds in 3 out of his 5 seasons and has never gained over 587 yds.

He made over $14 million last year and gained 186 yards with 2 tds.

Probably not the best endorsement for what you're selling.

People had good reason to question that 3rd round pick imo, and even more reason to question that extension.

Edited May 1 by Turk71

[Dr. Who]

51 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:

It is from an older language translated as an Orator has finished with a proclamation.

 I deem it so, was also used.

Means , No more is to be discussed.

And now

I have spoken  😇

Yes, I know something of the oratorical tradition. I was just making a joke, but the fella apparently didn't think it was funny.

 

 

[Augie]

4 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Yes, I know something of the oratorical tradition. I was just making a joke, but the fella apparently didn't think it was funny.

 

 

 

Oratorical traditions sometimes make people flinch. We should allow some grace. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

19 minutes ago, Turk71 said:

Knox is not special in any way and is ridiculously overpaid.

He scored 9 tds one season because he was Josh Allen's main RZ target but he's scored a total of 13tds in his other 4 seasons, 3.25 per year.  He's gained less than 400 yds in 3 out of his 5 seasons and has never gained over 587 yds.

He made over $14 million last year and gained 186 yards with 2 tds.

Probably not the best endorsement for what your selling.

People had good reason to question that 3rd round pick imo, and even more reason to question that extension.

I think Knox had a very difficult season on and off the field in what was supposed to be his breakout season in 2022. Then they drafted Kincaid and had more injuries.

 

I disagree, I think as an athlete he was very special. He needed to sharpen up his route running. He improved his catching. 2022 didn’t go as well as he wanted. 2022 was a bad year for Davis and Knox, both were supposed to break out. They replaced Knox in 2023 with Kincaid and Davis in 2024 with Coleman.

Edited May 1 by Buffalo_Stampede

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Comparison?

 

 

[NewEra]

9 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Comparison?

 

 

That’s nuts.  I didn’t know TO ran a 4.65.  I always saw his 40 listed at 4.45.  I guess he ran that in the nfl or after he retired.  Crazy

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

That’s nuts.  I didn’t know TO ran a 4.65.  I always saw his 40 listed at 4.45.  I guess he ran that in the nfl or after he retired.  Crazy

Sometimes you have a slow day at the combine, that’s why a lot of top WRs don’t even run.

[bearstobills]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Honestly wow, learned a lot about him. He said he has no life outside of football. He sounds like a film junkie. Wants to be close with his QB. Watch film with his QB. 
 

And he golfs a little!

I appreciate Beane looking past the metrics that stop most of us fans in our tracks.  With Josh, it was the 56% completion percentage.  With Rousseau it was the lack of explosion and all of his sacks coming from the inside. itWh Keon...it was the 4.61 Forty.  He knows a football player when he sees one.  And after watching that interview, could you imagine him picking ANY other receiver.  The kid is special.  I'm not sure what his career will ultimately be, but with his work ethic, confidence, understanding of the game, and physical abilities....I'm betting on him.  And so is Beane.

[EmotionallyUnstable]

20 hours ago, Logic said:

Just to add to my previous post about the YPRR thing. This goes back to 2015. 1,000 yard season producers in the NFL are highlighted in bold.

A little scary, no?

(also, Hi Justin Shorter, we see you)

Is there a list of the >2.0 YPRR 1000 yards or can it be assumed all other are over this data point?

 

Edit: let me restate to get to my point: is there a list a players who are >2 YPRR that were not 1000 yard guys?

Edited May 1 by EmotionallyUnstable

[Buffalo_Stampede]

20 minutes ago, bearstobills said:

I appreciate Beane looking past the metrics that stop most of us fans in our tracks.  With Josh, it was the 56% completion percentage.  With Rousseau it was the lack of explosion and all of his sacks coming from the inside. itWh Keon...it was the 4.61 Forty.  He knows a football player when he sees one.  And after watching that interview, could you imagine him picking ANY other receiver.  The kid is special.  I'm not sure what his career will ultimately be, but with his work ethic, confidence, understanding of the game, and physical abilities....I'm betting on him.  And so is Beane.

They always say the interview process leading up to the draft is a job interview. If I were a GM looking to hire a WR and Keon Coleman gave me those answers. I’m hiring him. 
 

I honestly was blown away by his answers relating to football and life away from football.

Edited May 1 by Buffalo_Stampede

[Dr. Who]

54 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

They always say the interview process leading up the draft is a job interview. If I were a GM looking to hire a WR and Keon Coleman gave me those answers. I’m hiring him. 
 

I honestly was blown away by his answers relating to football and life away from football.

Yeah, he was not on my list of favorites, but you start listening to the fella, I sure hope he can play, because I don't think I could pass on him either.

[Richard Noggin]

2 hours ago, NewEra said:

just love this kid.  ❤️ 

 

"I don't have a life outside of football." -actual quote from our new WR. Love to see it.

 

2 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Honestly wow, learned a lot about him. He said he has no life outside of football. He sounds like a film junkie. Wants to be close with his QB. Watch film with his QB. 
 

And he golfs a little!

 

Josh's new little brother. We both keyed on that same quote, of course, but that whole stretch of the interview is REALLY refreshing to hear from a fairly highly drafted NFL WR. His vision for QB<>WR chemistry is so pure, so idyllic. Hope Josh is willing to grind with him on that film stuff. Would love it if all the targets and the QBs had an easier time coming together as a tribe in 2024. Allen has a clearer path to leadership this season. I hope he really goes for it. 

[Richard Noggin]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

That’s nuts.  I didn’t know TO ran a 4.65.  I always saw his 40 listed at 4.45.  I guess he ran that in the nfl or after he retired.  Crazy

 

Edit: I'll leave my initial question intact below so you can all laugh at me. Turns out Coleman only participated in positional drills at his pro day. Guess it isn't some grand conspiracy.

 

"Who has Coleman's faster pro day 40 time? For some reason I can't find it. Big tech colluding to keep us Bills fans divided over reductive data points."

 

Derp.

Edited May 1 by Richard Noggin

[Solomon Grundy]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

That’s nuts.  I didn’t know TO ran a 4.65.  I always saw his 40 listed at 4.45.  I guess he ran that in the nfl or after he retired.  Crazy

I've mentioned this numerous times this thread. T.O. is running 4.4 presently😂

[Fan in Chicago]

2 hours ago, NewEra said:

just love this kid.  ❤️ 

So how many endorsements is that ? Macy's, Subway, Andy's ice cream, Dairy Queen... 

 

But he doesn't like Gumbo - friggin bust pick by Beane! 😡