Rd 2, Pick 33: WR Keon Coleman, Florida State

[gonzo1105]

10 minutes ago, DJB said:

It’s ok to admit both which I can.

 

So far I love Keon the person. Seems

fun loving and innocent. A guy the locker room will enjoy. You can see he wants to work hard and be a good person . 
 

But I can also point out his faults as Keon the player as well

He has faults I’m not denying that. The Bills have a type of person/player they like. Coleman fit it to a tee. They met with him numerous times. 
 

The problem is most people can’t separate what they want in a player vs what the Bills want 

[Back2Buff]

1 hour ago, Sweats said:

 

 

 

 

 

Some people have actually watched a little more than a YouTube video to assess this guy, myself included and to judge a guy's talents only from social media outlets and YouTube is grossly negligent and irresponsible.

 

Go back and watch full Michigan State and FSU games (you can find them on YouTube.......apparently, you are a YouTube master, so you'll figure it out) and watch the complete package on this guy. It's not always the plays that you see on highlight reels that highlight his skills, but it's the plays he makes that you won't see on social media outlets.......the blocking, slant routes, etc.

 

That is all i have to say to you, sir.

 

I dont know why you are knocking youtube, they literally have full game cuts on there.  It's no different than what scouts are watching.  A cut up scout video is like 20 mins max.  There is so much dead time in a football game.

 

His blocking is hit and miss.  Some good blocks, and some poor ones.  I did notice that it seemed like he took a few too many plays off for my liking.  Every player in the NFL does, but its something I didn't like with Diggs, so I'm not going to like it with Coleman.

 

I don't know why I'm getting knocked for having an opinion that MANY really good analytic sites are saying.  If Keon succeeds, it will be an outlier based on how past WR like him have done.  I thought there were more sure bets at WR at 28, who still had flaws, but overall they had the production or tape where you could see it translating.

 

The overall theme around Keon is a lot lower than what the Bills thought.  Generally speaking, Beane has been terrible in the 2nd round.

 

Not to mention, Beane thought so highly of Keon, that he had no issue giving up control for a 5th year.  If Beane thought Keon was going to make multiple pro bowls, he wouldn't have given up that 5th year option.  For a guy like Chase, it's saving Cin over 10 million.

[Slippery Rubber Mats]

5 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:

 

I dont know why you are knocking youtube, they literally have full game cuts on there.  It's no different than what scouts are watching.  A cut up scout video is like 20 mins max.  There is so much dead time in a football game.

 

His blocking is hit and miss.  Some good blocks, and some poor ones.  I did notice that it seemed like he took a few too many plays off for my liking.  Every player in the NFL does, but its something I didn't like with Diggs, so I'm not going to like it with Coleman.

 

I don't know why I'm getting knocked for having an opinion that MANY really good analytic sites are saying.  If Keon succeeds, it will be an outlier based on how past WR like him have done.  I thought there were more sure bets at WR at 28, who still had flaws, but overall they had the production or tape where you could see it translating.

 

The overall theme around Keon is a lot lower than what the Bills thought.  Generally speaking, Beane has been terrible in the 2nd round.

 

Not to mention, Beane thought so highly of Keon, that he had no issue giving up control for a 5th year.  If Beane thought Keon was going to make multiple pro bowls, he wouldn't have given up that 5th year option.  For a guy like Chase, it's saving Cin over 10 million.

 

My guy, there's a big shift in tone from what you just wrote in a more reasonable way (which I still disagree with in severalparts), and the following difinitive statements which you can't possibly know:

 

Quote

I don't know how anyone can watch this man play football and think he will be successful in the NFL.  The dude just runs what looks like half speed out there.  His routes are a joke. 

 

 

Quote

The guy will not win on the outside in the NFL.  Sauce Gardner will literally laugh at Coleman trying to get opened.  He will be walking out there and able to be in his hip pocket.  You think Coleman is going up over Gardner to get a ball?!

 

Quote

This is the type of talent that you will find in the later rounds or even undrafted.

 

Come on dude lol

[MarlinTheMagician]

All this sturm and drang over a pick that Beane, Josh Allen and our scouts were obviously comfortable with from a bunch of arm-chair experts is exhausting.  Give the man a chance.  For me, he is the best wide-receiver drafted until he gives me reason to give up the dream.  By definition, he has not yet done so.  

 

Let's go baby 20-0!

[Logic]

I'm sure this is fine....
 

 

[Slippery Rubber Mats]

12 minutes ago, Logic said:

I'm sure this is fine....
 

 

 

Watch it be fine

[billybrew1]

On 4/26/2024 at 4:18 PM, boyst said:

Gross.  4th round speed. 3rd round talent. 1st round character 

You have to be concerned after the Josh Allen pick we have done basically nothing to bring in blue chip aside from Diggs, which was also a financial nightmare ….. In five drafts, 2018 (after the Allen pick) to 2022 Beane has found exactly zero blue chip talents in any round. We are doing something wrong and we still are it it looks like. In fact, it looks like we are doubling down on, “the process”.

Instead of actually doing some much needed self-scouting and realizing we are not prioritizing athleticism high enough, they are closing their ears and eyes and redoubling their flawed efforts….

 

[Just in Atlanta]

Give him a chance. This was the guy Josh Allen begged for. He got his receiver. 

[Cash]

21 minutes ago, Logic said:

I'm sure this is fine....
 

 

 

I'm not thrilled about it either, but in my experience every analytical metric touted as a be all, end all for anything usually winds up not holding up to scrutiny.  Either because of an arbitrary cutoff (The Curse of 370), lack of sufficient sample size, or poor and/or biased interpretation by the analyst.  So I see no reason to sweat it.

[Logic]

7 minutes ago, Cash said:

 

I'm not thrilled about it either, but in my experience every analytical metric touted as a be all, end all for anything usually winds up not holding up to scrutiny.  Either because of an arbitrary cutoff (The Curse of 370), lack of sufficient sample size, or poor and/or biased interpretation by the analyst.  So I see no reason to sweat it.

I mean...I see at least a LITTLE reason to sweat it.

It's not just one thing, ya know?

Coleman's actual college statistics, his YPRR, his Reception Perception graphic from Matt Harmon...it's a pile of things.

Of course there are always outliers. The thread in the Tweet I just posted mentions that DK Metcalf and Terry McLaurin didn't clear the 2.0 YPRR threshold either, and obviously both guys are good NFL players. So it's not a guarantee, by any means. People beat the odds.

Still, to completely disregard this stuff when it's actually a pretty decent sample size over several years strikes me as fingers in your ears, "la la la I can't hear you" kind of thinking.

Those of us that didn't love Coleman as a prospect have just as much and as valid a set of reasons for reaching that conclusion as the people who look at the same prospect and feel optimistic that he'll succeed.

He's a Bill now, so I will obviously be rooting for him. He's a very likeable guy, and the Bills NEED him to be good. But I'm not going to suddenly pretend I loved the pick. That would be dishonest of me.

[Heitz]

2 hours ago, Slippery Rubber Mats said:

Two Bills Drive, ladies and gentlemen.

 

[Mat68]

46 minutes ago, Logic said:

I'm sure this is fine....
 

 

He was over 2.00 in 22 with Michigan St.  I suspect the Travis injury pulled him below that metric.  The passing game fell off a cliff.  Qualifiers were used for D.K I think it fair to question that with Coleman. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Oh God, watching the Zay Jones release article on ESPN makes me sick to my stomach. It's just one long highlight reel for Brian Thomas Jr doing things I never saw once in all the Coleman highlights.   

[Logic]

Just to add to my previous post about the YPRR thing. This goes back to 2015. 1,000 yard season producers in the NFL are highlighted in bold.

A little scary, no?

(also, Hi Justin Shorter, we see you)

Edited April 30 by Logic

[Bruffalo]

48 minutes ago, Logic said:

I'm sure this is fine....
 

 

 

I seriously doubt anyone would be worried about this if we had drafted BTJ instead of Coleman. 

 

If there were "tell all" analytics that could be used to accurately predict NFL success then we wouldn't have debates about who is the better prospect. 

 

 

[Mat68]

Coleman is the Wr version of Allen.  People can watch him and get 2 different opinions.  In the fall he was top of the class.  Most had him ranked pre draft 30-40 overall as a prospect.  Buffalo drafted him at 33 pretty much inline with consensus.  Moving forward Buffalo was the best landing spot for a wr.  There is a bunch of targets available and the team feels he will step right in. There are reason to believe his weaknesses can be approved upon.  I think sky is the limit. 

11 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Oh God, watching the Zay Jones release article on ESPN makes me sick to my stomach. It's just one long highlight reel for Brian Thomas Jr doing things I never saw once in all the Coleman highlights.   

He wasnt available for Buffalo…

[colin]

i think the simplest take away is that in the playoffs, kc will play rough and rowdy and get the best of it in terms of whistles, and diggs folds like a cheap lawnchair, shakir does ok but is not huge, knox doesn't really catch well, and kinkaid does well.  getting some next level athletic ability and pure size adds something we just haven't had in a while.  coleman gives us that.

 

i doubt strongly he will match diggs' productivity of last year, but i have every expectation that he will out perform what diggs has been in the playoffs for us.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

34 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Coleman is the Wr version of Allen.  People can watch him and get 2 different opinions.  In the fall he was top of the class.  Most had him ranked pre draft 30-40 overall as a prospect.  Buffalo drafted him at 33 pretty much inline with consensus.  Moving forward Buffalo was the best landing spot for a wr.  There is a bunch of targets available and the team feels he will step right in. There are reason to believe his weaknesses can be approved upon.  I think sky is the limit. 

He wasnt available for Buffalo…

He was taken at 23. Jumping six spots would not have been insurmountable.  

Time to move on but BTJ, Worthy, and Coleman are all linked now as they were all in play for Beane. I would not have taken Worthy, but many on here wanted a trade up for BTJ. 

Hope Coleman is a solid WR. Allen if he truly is a HOF QB should be able to produce with this group. 

[Mat68]

6 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

He was taken at 23. Jumping six spots would not have been insurmountable.  

Time to move on but BTJ, Worthy, and Coleman are all linked now as they were all in play for Beane. I would not have taken Worthy, but many on here wanted a trade up for BTJ. 

Hope Coleman is a solid WR. Allen if he truly is a HOF QB should be able to produce with this group. 

Who wanted to trade down?  That was a spot where everyone had the guy they want fall into their lap. Eagles? Nope. Steelers? easy to say just move up but the the only move was by Jacksonville and pretty obvious they were looking for the same guy. 

[Johnnycage46]

This feels like the analytics folks crushing Allen all over again.  Obviously different players, different positions, different metrics, etc. etc. etc.  We really won't know anything for a while.