Rd 2, Pick 33: WR Keon Coleman, Florida State

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, QCity said:

 

Couldn't the same be said about the people cheering him on? 

 

I can guarantee you one thing, if we would have drafted a burner like Worthy there wouldn't be people claiming 40 times don't matter.

Incorrect.  I’ve been saying since combine Worthy is not a good fit for Buffalo and that his 40 time doesn’t matter nor does his forty time show up on tape like it does for Tyreek Hill because there is a lot more that goes into real game speed than 40 times.  
 

First thing I said is Worthy speed is going to get negated in the bad weather in Buffalo late in season and post season, especially when the games get more physical because he isn’t strong.  And when it does, he is going to be easier to take out of games.  

The difference between the people cheering him on is that they haven’t decided his career yet like his detractors who say he is a bust or cap his upside.  They see a lot of potential and excited to see what he can do.  Others have made their mind up (Like they did with Allen, Bernard, Milano, Taron, Cook, Shakir, etc) on draft night that he’s a bust or JAG at best and nothing more than that is possible.  
 

And the worst part is almost all of them are doing so off one piece of data only, one that is not nearly as significance to a WRs success as its overly exaggerated to be.  

 

Edited April 29 by Alphadawg7

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, NoSaint said:

then why doesn’t he get separation, alpha? 

You get separation from a number of things, least of all forty times.  He has plenty of athleticism to separate at the next level and it’s going to come from technique.  And at Florida St they didn’t focus on this enough with him, but he’s shown the ability to do it.  At the next level the coaching in staff is going to focus on his technique and release because he proved he has plenty of short area burst and athleticism to excel there.
 

There have been a lot of guys who came out where separation was a knock on college but showed they had the athleticism to be able to utilize technique at the next level.  It’s why guys like Kupp, St. Brown, etc have all gone on to have great success.  
 

If a player lacks that athleticism (see Gabe Davis) then the ability to develop the techniques and routes that will allow them to consistently win at the next level isn’t as likely.
 

You need to know what you are looking at to know who can improve and who can’t.  It’s why people high on Allen could see the potential to be accurate by seeing he had the tools, intelligence, commitment, coach-ability, etc to make the improvements in technique and showed he could do it early leading up to the draft.  
 

Coleman has that.  He has that drive, commitment and athleticism to continue to develop and improve where he needs to in order to win consistently in the NFL.  
 

Will he?  Who knows.  But he’s the kind of prospect I like to bet on.  This kid has an it factor that a lot of players don’t.  He has the right attitude, mentality, confidence, swagger, and competitive drive that sets a prospect up for reaching their potential.  
 

To me…if DeAndre Hopkins and Brandon Marshall had a baby, that’s Coleman except Coleman is more athletic and humble.  That’s who I see when I watch him.  And Coleman ran a faster 40 than both of them.  
 

 

Edited April 29 by Alphadawg7

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, Dr. Who said:

Yes, let's use the abysmal performance of the WR room the second half of last year as the low bar threshold by which to measure what will be considered acceptable performance or not this year. The offense struggled. Maybe it won't with Brady and the new players, but I'm not all that confident about it. Kincaid is going to have to be the main target, I think, so I hope he has a leap and not a sophomore slump year.

 

The team went on like a six game winning streak when we "phased out" Diggs and Davis from the game plan. The offense was hardly abysmal. The offense was different, more running game and ball control but they won games. And that included scoring 27.5 ppg in the playoffs which was higher than their regular season average. 

15 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

If a player lacks that athleticism (see Gabe Davis) then the ability to develop the techniques and routes that will allow them to consistently win at the next level isn’t as likely.
 

 

If I would have done my homework and knew that Coleman returned punts for FSU at 6'3" and 210lbs I would have had this guy as a top 5 WR in this years draft. Beyond athletic ability returning punts requires football instincts and vision, especially so when you body is a 6'3" 210lb target that doesn't have sub 4.45 speed. 

 

Imagine Gabe Davis returning punts. Yikes!

[Bob Chandler's Hands]

21 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

To me…if DeAndre Hopkins and Brandon Marshall had a baby

[LeGOATski]

5 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

The team went on like a six game winning streak when we "phased out" Diggs and Davis from the game plan. The offense was hardly abysmal. The offense was different, more running game and ball control but they won games. And that included scoring 27.5 ppg in the playoffs which was higher than their regular season average. 

Yep. Kincaid and Cook each had 80+ yards in both playoff games. In 2023, with the offense running through those two, that'll be closer to the average per game for them. I think Cook hovering around 100 all purpose yards each week and Kincaid averaging 65 yards. The rest of the skill players varying to a higher degree based on matchups.

[Nextmanup]

Interesting analysis here suggesting Coleman's game will transfer to the NFL as a big slot receiver and not a classic wide out.

 

Struggles mightily with separation against man and press coverage.

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, Nextmanup said:

Interesting analysis here suggesting Coleman's game will transfer to the NFL as a big slot receiver and not a classic wide out.

 

Struggles mightily with separation against man and press coverage.

 

 

My issue with him is he is a fantasy football fan, who turned it into a job, who uses a few historical data points that lacks almost all context regarding the individual players and their individual traits and talents to somehow project a players future.  
 

This isn’t a professional scout who knows real football, knows how to break down film, technique, traits, etc and not only does he not have the experience, he also doesn’t have the depth of information they do either.

Edited April 29 by Alphadawg7

[Solomon Grundy]

4 hours ago, NoSaint said:

but that said, after breaking the tackle he may be asked to run numerous yards in a straight line- 

 

or a horizontal play could have him running many yards across the field. My point was it’s not just go routes where you see that speed 

 

breaking a tackle can make up for it though, as you note

See the LSU game... 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Didn’t watch anything in depth on Coleman because I thought the Bills wanted a different type of WR. 
 

I think the only comment I made on Coleman was “maybe Beane was happy he ran a slow 40, like with Gabe Davis.” 

 

I watched him the last few days while in Twobillsdrive jail, and yeah he’s not a separator. But he’s extremely athletic. WRs that don’t separate are very hard to project. We’ll just have to wait and see how he performs with NFL CBs all over him. Will he be able to make the contested catches vs NFL CBs and will Josh throw him the 50/50 balls? It’ll be fun to watch him develop.

 

 

[DJB]

 

[MrEpsYtown]

8 hours ago, QCity said:

 

Couldn't the same be said about the people cheering him on? 

 

I can guarantee you one thing, if we would have drafted a burner like Worthy there wouldn't be people claiming 40 times don't matter.

That is definitely true. If we drafted Worthy, fans would be complaining about our WR corps being too small, that we should have drafted someone bigger and people would be worried about us letting Coleman/Legette fall to the Chiefs. 

[BeastMaster]

9 hours ago, NoSaint said:

then why doesn’t he get separation, alpha? 

He has tape where he's beaten guys

 

He ran a slant and go where the got the DB to bite and then got past him, and he has other plays where DB's held or grabbed him cause he had them beat. He threatens the defense at all levels, so corners will be susceptible to plays where he get's DB's to bite, and if they try to jam him or press him, he will win at the line and get open.

 

Alot of posters are going to eat crow on this kid. He's a baller that has tremendous skills and a strong basketball background that helps him have outstanding body control, shiftiness, and the ability to box out and win jump balls/contested catches.

 

 

[Dr. Who]

1 hour ago, MrEpsYtown said:

That is definitely true. If we drafted Worthy, fans would be complaining about our WR corps being too small, that we should have drafted someone bigger and people would be worried about us letting Coleman/Legette fall to the Chiefs. 

If we stayed at #32 and drafted Legette, he's a one-year wonder. If we drafted Mitchell, he's got diabetes and is an attitude problem. If we drafted McConkey, he's a "gritty slot" and not an X. There will always be detractors. Some of it is because Beane explicitly said he was looking for explosive receivers who would separate, and Coleman doesn't fit that profile.

22 minutes ago, BeastMaster said:

He has tape where he's beaten guys

 

He ran a slant and go where the got the DB to bite and then got past him, and he has other plays where DB's held or grabbed him cause he had them beat. He threatens the defense at all levels, so corners will be susceptible to plays where he get's DB's to bite, and if they try to jam him or press him, he will win at the line and get open.

 

Alot of posters are going to eat crow on this kid. He's a baller that has tremendous skills and a strong basketball background that helps him have outstanding body control, shiftiness, and the ability to box out and win jump balls/contested catches.

 

 

I'm not reading many posters who are saying outright he is going to bust. There are questions about whether he can be an effective boundary receiver, because he does not separate at the college level, and that won't get easier with NFL dbs. And anybody who is a true Bills' fan wants him to succeed.

Edited April 29 by Dr. Who

[NoSaint]

6 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

If we stayed at #32 and drafted Legette, he's a one-year wonder. If we drafted Mitchell, he's got diabetes and is an attitude problem. If we drafted McConkey, he's a "gritty slot" and not an X. There will always be detractors. Some of it is because Beane explicitly said he was looking for explosive receivers who would separate, and Coleman doesn't fit that profile.

I think we just have to hope there’s a bit of “he’s a guard” at play and then watch cordy actually play LT. 
 

while I’ve been challenging people on this pick, as it doesn’t fit the mold, my fingers are still crossed. It’s not purely hope and prayer either but its a challenging one on paper.

Edited April 29 by NoSaint

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

8 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

Interesting analysis here suggesting Coleman's game will transfer to the NFL as a big slot receiver and not a classic wide out.

 

Struggles mightily with separation against man and press coverage.

 

 

One of these dudes also likes him more as a projection to big slot, the other seems to like him well enough outside. 

 

 

Edited April 29 by 2020 Our Year For Sure

[JESSEFEFFER]

The idea of trading for an established WR who is due a second contract is appealing to some.  Tee Higgins has been a name that has circulated.  Coleman shares a very similar  body type and athletic profile with Tee.  I haven't seen any comps to him but I'll say it seeing some would be happy if we made a trade for him.  In many athletic respects, Keon has him beat.

 

 

[CapeBreton]

I've said it before, I don't trust the Bills wide receiver scouting and this looks like a questionable pick to me. Obviously the 40 time is pretty scary, but I also don't see this "play speed" that everyone is claiming he has. He looked great in the gauntlet drill at the combine but I don't see that on the field. I also wanted Worthy because his tape looks so much better than Coleman, hope I'm wrong. I am keeping my expectations very low with this guy. 

 

Also, it's going to suck when McConkey crushes it this year with Herbert, he'll get a ton of targets in that offence. 

[JESSEFEFFER]

Tee's RAS:

 

 

[BeastMaster]

9 hours ago, LabattBlue said:

No matter how much Diggs stats decreased, he still had to be a focus of the defense.   That is now gone. 

This is true, but my counter to this, and what I think the Bills plan is, is to have an offense where you don't know who the focus should be on...which will keep defenses honest and in more standard/predictable alignments. It also allows Josh to operate more within the scheme of the offense instead of locking onto or feeling the need to keep a certain Diva WR happy. 

 

I for one want to see Josh run this offense where he just operates without any worries about not getting someone involved. 

[Cray51]

10 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

Yes, let's use the abysmal performance of the WR room the second half of last year as the low bar threshold by which to measure what will be considered acceptable performance or not this year. The offense struggled. Maybe it won't with Brady and the new players, but I'm not all that confident about it. Kincaid is going to have to be the main target, I think, so I hope he has a leap and not a sophomore slump year.

The Bills offense was top 5 at the end of the year, and was so via flexibility of the scheme week to week.  The team didnt need to funnel Diggs 15 targets a game to be successful.  Brady used the run game, Kincaid, Shakir and it was a better offense than the first half of the year.