Rd 2, Pick 33: WR Keon Coleman, Florida State

[Boatdrinks]

3 hours ago, bobobonators said:

So many of you are insufferable. 

The level of negativity and fatalism on this board is off the charts.

[Casual fan]

On 4/27/2024 at 10:18 AM, Shaw66 said:

Here are a few thoughts.   I've only watch Coleman highlight reels and read a variety of posts here.  I admit to being too dumb to find Happy Days' posts here, but apparently he's been on the Coleman bandwagon.  Here are my thoughts:

 

1.  I continue to believe that people here have their own ideas about what the Bills need at wideout, and that's why there's so much disappointment.  All that means is that the Bills were looking for someone different than what all those people believe.  And I'll continue to say that the Bills know more about this than any of us. 

 

2.  Having said that, I don't see exactly how they expect Coleman to fit in.  I imagined a guy with more speed and more shiftiness.  I can see why people say he looks like a Davis replacement.  

 

3.  However, I see more than Davis.  I always thought Davis's weakness was catching in a crowd, and Coleman look a whole lot better at than than Davis.  I get that if I looked at all of his film, I'd see plenty of contested drops, but still, I like the way Coleman positions his body to screen defenders.   And the one-handed catch is something Davis could only dream of.   

 

4.  I also like the punt returns.   Not that the guy is going to return punts for the Bills, but there's a lot of ball carrying skill on display there.  That should translate into some yards after catch.  

 

5.  Okay.  Get out the flamethrowers.   Here's what I see in Coleman:  Mike Evans lite.  A tad slower, a tad smaller, but a guy who despite having less than great measureables, has skills that combine to make a really tough receiver.   He's young - 20 - must turn 21 this year - and he'll add some bulk.  I think in the red zone, he'll pair nicely with Kincaid and Knox as big targets.  I think he'll work as a possession receiver.  I think he will get deep sometimes, and we'll be scratching our heads about how he was fast enough to do that.   All of which was what I thought about Mike Evans until, after about five years, I had to admit that the guy is just a damn fine receiver, even if he doesn't fit a classic mold.  

 

Coleman is a bit of project, but I love the upside.   

Hello Shaw66,

Not flamethrowing here. I have a genuine question.

 

Am I right to think that elite rookie wide receivers rarely have much of an impact?

Like I seem to remember that OBJ made quite a splash as a rookie. But I think I remember that all these years later because of how unusual that is.

 

Usually aren't we waiting for at least a year for them to work on their route running and all the rest of the complex stuff that have to learn?

 

So my thinking was / is even if we traded the farm for a round-one wideout, they wouldn't have much impact next year.

 

Does that sound right to you or am I off in my thinking? I say again, I'm asking you because I want to know!

 

As for Coleman I'm not willing to second guess Bean because watching his highlights, it seemed to me, that he is abnormally nimble for a man his size. Even among professional athletes I mean. I'd have to see him in person to be sure. But when I've seen that in person it's never been wrong that the guy will be a good one (unless injury gets him).

 

 

 

 

[noacls]

1 hour ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Please name one

Average 40 time for NFL WR is 4.48. These are fastest WR on Bills roster. 

Hamler 4.27

Samuel 4.31

Isabella 4.31

Shakir 4.43. 

They could definitely use more speed on both sides of the ball. I guess Hamer and Isabella don't count until they make the team. 

[jkeerie]

1 hour ago, BeastMaster said:

If that's what you got out of that footage, then you don't know what your watching.

 

For starters...the majority of his targets were screen passes to get the ball in his hands immediately. 

 

Secondly, in numerous targets the QB would just throw the ball up for him even when he was covered by multiple defenders or he wasn't the intended target. He was often used as a bailout by the QB because he wins matchups/jump balls often.

 

Thirdly, he had guys beat multiple times and he either got past them and wasn't caught, or they held/grabbed him and he drew a penalty flag. 

 

Watching his footage tells me a few things. One is that Coleman was the focal point of their offense and teams regarded him as such. That means he is already accustomed to the role of top dog that draws attention. Next is that Jordan Travis is not impressive as a passer. He made numerous bad throws to Coleman, and he relied on Coleman to bail him out way too much. His backup did Coleman little favors as well which explains the dip in numbers after Travis went down. Third is that teams respect Colemans ability to hurt them in all phases. He can take screen passes and turn them into big plays...he runs good slants and can also turn those into big plays, and he can get deep and beat you there as well.

 

If Brady uses this guy right, and runs this offense like it's supposed to be with Josh making quick decisions and hitting whoever is open, then Coleman will be a weapon.

 

Didn't the Jets just draft him?

[Rockinon]

You could tell that the Bill's brass changed their thinking in the way they select WRs last year when they picked up Kincaid. He was considered to be the best pass catcher in the draft, even among WRs. Coleman also is a good pass catcher. Not really sure if this works out since he will always be matched up with a CB. Considering he has Josh tossing to him though, his chances increase significantly. As for the meltdowns about his forty time, I'm reserving judgement. Perhaps the coaches have some ideas on how best to utilize his skillset.

[Mat68]

1 minute ago, Rockinon said:

You could tell that the Bill's brass changed their thinking in the way they select WRs last year when they picked up Kincaid. He was considered to be the best pass catcher in the draft, even among WRs. Coleman also is a good pass catcher. Not really sure if this works out since he will always be matched up with a CB. Considering he has Josh tossing to him though, his chances increase significantly. As for the meltdowns about his forty time, I'm reserving judgement. Perhaps the coaches have some ideas on how best to utilize his skillset.

I think this was Coleman v Mitchell.  Both young with size similar production.  They went with the human Coleman.  They work hard on both and and like Coleman. He comes off as a star at his presser.  I was not a Coleman.  More I look into it more I like it.  
 

Brady comes from the Payton system.  Made Colston and Thomas into monsters.  I see Coleman doing some of that.  I think his fluidity translates into becoming a polished route runner too.  He does that he could be the total package at wr.  

[nedboy7]

Just learned on this video that Coleman is cousins with CeeDee Lamb. 

 

 

[Shaw66]

14 minutes ago, Casual fan said:

Hello Shaw66,

Not flamethrowing here. I have a genuine question.

 

Am I right to think that elite rookie wide receivers rarely have much of an impact?

Like I seem to remember that OBJ made quite a splash as a rookie. But I think I remember that all these years later because of how unusual that is.

 

Usually aren't we waiting for at least a year for them to work on their route running and all the rest of the complex stuff that have to learn?

 

So my thinking was / is even if we traded the farm for a round-one wideout, they wouldn't have much impact next year.

 

Does that sound right to you or am I off in my thinking? I say again, I'm asking you because I want to know!

 

As for Coleman I'm not willing to second guess Bean because watching his highlights, it seemed to me, that he is abnormally nimble for a man his size. Even among professional athletes I mean. I'd have to see him in person to be sure. But when I've seen that in person it's never been wrong that the guy will be a good one (unless injury gets him).

 

 

 

 

I think you're generally correct.  Having said that, for the buzz around the three top guys, it sounded like those guys have good shots at making impact from day one.   One or more of them is the exception.  

 

Working into the lineup more slowly seems to be the norm.  I gather that the complexity of the route trees and choosing the correct option of the route tree given what the defense is doing makes it tough for most receivers to break in early.   They're running option routes in college, but the reads are simpler, I think.  And they have to block, which isn't a part of the game for a lot of college receivers.  

 

On top of that, we keep hearing players talk about what a whirl-wind the first season is.   Combine, draft, introductions, press conferences, moving, learning a new scheme, adjusting to the speed and strength of all the competitors on the field, all add to the difficulty of just learning to play the game at this level.   Many of these guys say their game is enhanced greatly going into their second season, when they have all of February, March and April to get rested and their bodies well, and to be focused on the things that they learned in the first season.  

 

As I said elsewhere, I think the Bills' challenge this season will be escaping the first half of the season with enough wins to be in at least decent position to compete in the second half.  I think Coleman, Bishop, Carter, and Davis all will begin to emerge as the season progresses.  

 

Having said that, I think it's possible that Coleman might flash early because of his unusual athleticism.   If I'm Brady, my plan for Coleman is to quickly get him into a few sets and patterns that get him open for short and medium completions with opportunities to run. If the Bills can do that, Coleman might do some damage early and get the attention of the defenses.   If that happens, he could become more productive than many rookie receivers. 

 

Coleman could have a great rookie season, but I think it's reasonable to expect no more than 600-700 yards.  And of course, he also could be mired as the Bills' fifth or sixth option all through the season.  Eric Moulds had 279 yards his rookie season.  

[Boatdrinks]

7 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

I think this was Coleman v Mitchell.  Both young with size similar production.  They went with the human Coleman.  They work hard on both and and like Coleman. He comes off as a star at his presser.  I was not a Coleman.  More I look into it more I like it.  
 

Brady comes from the Payton system.  Made Colston and Thomas into monsters.  I see Coleman doing some of that.  I think his fluidity translates into becoming a polished route runner too.  He does that he could be the total package at wr.  

Agree on Coleman v Mitchell. When it was apparent the Bills would pick at 33 ( probably got offers to move down again ) I thought Mitchell would and should be the selection. Was definitely surprised it was Coleman, but I’m warming up to the pick for sure. Definitely rooting for this kid. 

[Shaw66]

19 minutes ago, Rockinon said:

You could tell that the Bill's brass changed their thinking in the way they select WRs last year when they picked up Kincaid. He was considered to be the best pass catcher in the draft, even among WRs. Coleman also is a good pass catcher. Not really sure if this works out since he will always be matched up with a CB. 

I said yesterday that I think Coleman is the wideout version of Kincaid the tight end.  

[Dr. Who]

15 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I said yesterday that I think Coleman is the wideout version of Kincaid the tight end.  

That's great, because they both need to play in the slot to be maximally effective.

[Rockinon]

3 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I said yesterday that I think Coleman is the wideout version of Kincaid the tight end.  

I think you nailed it. There for a while, the Bills kept getting small fast receivers. We were all joking about all of the smurfs on the team. Ultimately, there were problems scheming some of these guys into our system and there were definitely issues with dropped passes and injuries. Starting with Kincaid, we found someone with size and good hands. Coleman is very much in that same mold.

 

As a side note, I think the Bills the overall philosophy changed after the playoff loss to Cincy a couple years ago. The Bills were bullied in that game and that did not go over well. It is looking to me like the Bills are looking to become the bully. From the beefing up in the trenches to the skill position players. They know they have a great QB but clearly they also intend to run the ball. The entire way they are building this team is to get back to some smash mouth football.

[Meatloaf63]

On 4/26/2024 at 7:53 PM, Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD said:

Those are just dropped passes. Coleman had 115 catches on 192 targets in college. That's under 60% catch percentage.

What was his drop percentage 

[starrymessenger]

If the plan is to trade for Aiyuk when Tre’s cap number comes off I will consider this Beane’s second best draft. Aiyuk would make the Bills a serious contender.

[nedboy7]

Prior to the 2017 draft, Samuel blazed a 4.31 in the 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine which led many to believe he'd be a home run hitter in the NFL, but that never really materialized. His career yards per reception is 10.7, not what you would expect from someone with his speed.

[Boatdrinks]

4 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

Prior to the 2017 draft, Samuel blazed a 4.31 in the 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine which led many to believe he'd be a home run hitter in the NFL, but that never really materialized. His career yards per reception is 10.7, not what you would expect from someone with his speed.

He’s pretty much played with scrap heap QBs though. I’m interested to see how he’s used and if his numbers improve. 

[Deadstroke]

13 hours ago, Ralonzo said:

 

Some people just don't run well until they're getting chased.

 

Seabiscuit 

[Bob in STL]

23 hours ago, Haplo848 said:

I'm rather amused at all the people who think Keon Coleman is slow. Dude plays at speed. He had the fastest speed of anyone during the gauntlet drill in the past 2 years at the combine, which reflects actual play speed much more than the 40 does. He was even faster than Puka Nacua last year.

 

Did anyone actually go and watch his 40? Dude's simply not a track star. He started slow because coming out of his stance, he popped up instead of bursting forward. If he had spent more time on the track with someone who knew what they were doing, and could help him with a better start out of his stance, spending time fixing an issue that in no way actually relates to football, he likely would have shaved AT LEAST 0.1 seconds off, likely more. And no one would be talking about him being slow. But they look at that number, decide he's slow, and ignore everything else, especially his play speed.

 

 

 

He LOOKS slow when he's running because his legs don't seem to be moving as fast as you're used to, but when he's trying to outrun people, his stride lengthens, and with his long legs, every one of his strides eats up distance, and he covers ground at a surprising rate.

 

Because they get mesmerized with what they read on the internet.  Coleman game speed is plenty fast.   His size, strength and athletic ability is off the charts.  

 

Several scouts had him as the 5th WR in the draft.   

 

Edited April 29 by Bob in STL

[Boatdrinks]

11 minutes ago, starrymessenger said:

If the plan is to trade for Aiyuk when Tre’s cap number comes off I will consider this Beane’s second best draft. Aiyuk would make the Bills a serious contender.

I agree. Not sure if this is realistic, but I’d love the move. 

[Casual fan]

41 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I think you're generally correct.  Having said that, for the buzz around the three top guys, it sounded like those guys have good shots at making impact from day one.   One or more of them is the exception.  

 

Working into the lineup more slowly seems to be the norm.  I gather that the complexity of the route trees and choosing the correct option of the route tree given what the defense is doing makes it tough for most receivers to break in early.   They're running option routes in college, but the reads are simpler, I think.  And they have to block, which isn't a part of the game for a lot of college receivers.  

 

On top of that, we keep hearing players talk about what a whirl-wind the first season is.   Combine, draft, introductions, press conferences, moving, learning a new scheme, adjusting to the speed and strength of all the competitors on the field, all add to the difficulty of just learning to play the game at this level.   Many of these guys say their game is enhanced greatly going into their second season, when they have all of February, March and April to get rested and their bodies well, and to be focused on the things that they learned in the first season.  

 

As I said elsewhere, I think the Bills' challenge this season will be escaping the first half of the season with enough wins to be in at least decent position to compete in the second half.  I think Coleman, Bishop, Carter, and Davis all will begin to emerge as the season progresses.  

 

Having said that, I think it's possible that Coleman might flash early because of his unusual athleticism.   If I'm Brady, my plan for Coleman is to quickly get him into a few sets and patterns that get him open for short and medium completions with opportunities to run. If the Bills can do that, Coleman might do some damage early and get the attention of the defenses.   If that happens, he could become more productive than many rookie receivers. 

 

Coleman could have a great rookie season, but I think it's reasonable to expect no more than 600-700 yards.  And of course, he also could be mired as the Bills' fifth or sixth option all through the season.  Eric Moulds had 279 yards his rookie season.  

Thank you very much Shaw.

It was very kind of you to take the time to explain all that to me.

Much appreciated! 🫡