Rd 2, Pick 33: WR Keon Coleman, Florida State

[FireChans]

11 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

The upper end of Coleman's statistical range is possibly higher than that but also, statistics only go so far in expressing a player's true value.

 

I don’t think so. He may have an outlier year or two where he goes over 1k but his career avg imo will be like 900 yards.

 

2 minutes ago, Brandon said:

 

He could end up being better than that,  but I can also see him being a guy who makes a handful of highlight reel receptions on 40 catches for 400 yards.  

It’s just hard to make a living on contested catches as your elite trait.

 

Coleman had the same problem McConkey did. I suspect both will be solid pros. I don’t think they have elite ceilings.

 

If Worthy hits, he will be elite. If Legette hits, he will be elite. If Nabers/Odunze/MHJ hit, they will be elite.

 

If Coleman hits, he will be a Mike Williams-type guy who gets paid WR1 money without WR1 production and you will eventually want to move on from. 

[dave mcbride]

9 minutes ago, QCity said:

 

More like 2 games, LSU and Syracuse.  The guy was MIA for the last half of the season. I don't question his athleticism, but the production isn't there. I assumed these comparisons to Hopkins and Evans are tongue-in-cheek jokes.

You are not factoring in that for his final three games, FSU did not have a functioning qb except at the very beginning of the north alabama game, when Jordan Travis went down early due to a leg injury that ended his season. He also had 5 catches for 86 yards and 2 tds vs Clemson.

[Fleezoid]

I just like the fact we got a big guy that can compete for the football. So sick of the smallish receivers. 

[dave mcbride]

4 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

Thank you for a sober post and a legitimate concern.

 

I don't watch Florida State football (or any college football) so in evaluating Coleman's production it's fair to question Florida State's offense, their passing offense, their QB, and who the other receiving options were.

 

The analysis you’re responding to isn’t really accurate and also doesn’t factor in the late-season context for FSU last season (terrible quarterback situation because of injury).

[Mat68]

9 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

again though, where do you see that on film?

 

if claiming the exception status based on an underlying metric, where are the catches with him creating separation in the 10 yard split window?  I think that would be the really interesting piece that would make a lot of people feel better. 

His route running is projection.  That slant he houses vs LSU.  Not the route but the move he puts on the safety.  Teach him the proper foot and technique for a route and his body control shows he can put his foot in the ground and make the cut.  Second part 10 yard split.  90% of routes is getting off the line and cut.  Be shows the ability to cut without wasted movement.  His 10 yards split indicates he can accelerate off the line and out of the cut.  

[Sierra Foothills]

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

The analysis you’re responding to isn’t really accurate and also doesn’t factor in the late-season context for FSU last season (terrible quarterback situation because of injury).

 

And that's why I raised the questions in response to his analysis... which you in part answered.

 

Thank you.

 

 

[BillsFan130]

29 minutes ago, Taro Nimbus said:

Why are people so concerned with a 40 time?  A 4.6 is literal fractions of a second from track speed.  Its not like he ran a 7 second 40 time!!  

From what I heard it's not just 40 time, he has a hard time separating.

 

i don't know as I've never watched him play, just basing it from the reports.

 

This is not to say he can't improve though, as he's only 20 years old.

 

Just will have to develop into a better route technician 

[dave mcbride]

34 minutes ago, Taro Nimbus said:

Why are people so concerned with a 40 time?  A 4.6 is literal fractions of a second from track speed.  Its not like he ran a 7 second 40 time!!  

I know this was posted much earlier, but he did run faster at his pro day: 

 

[Coach Tuesday]

Want to have some fun?  Watch his basketball highlights.

[mannc]

3 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I know this was posted much earlier, but he did run faster at his pro day: 

 

Interesting…it was reported that he did not run the 40 at his pro day 

[SoonerBillsFan]

13 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

The analysis you’re responding to isn’t really accurate and also doesn’t factor in the late-season context for FSU last season (terrible quarterback situation because of injury).

Agreed, they were on their 3rd QB by seasons end.

[Sierra Foothills]

1 minute ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Want to have some fun?  Watch his basketball highlights.

 

That 41 point high school game?

 

It was ridiculous how effortless those 360 degree dunks were.

 

And I mean effortless.

 

[SoonerBillsFan]

5 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I know this was posted much earlier, but he did run faster at his pro day: 

 

Ian is spot on

[racketmaster]

1 hour ago, DapperCam said:

Catch rate has a lot to do with what kinds of throws the offense chooses to make, and QB as well. If the QB is inaccurate, catch rate is going to be low because there will be a lot of impossible to make catches on targets your way.

 

That number doesn’t mean a whole lot without context. His drop rate was very low.

I agree with the qb accuracy playing a role but watching all his targets there were many clear and easy drops as well as contested catches that he had position to come down with the ball and did not. He also made some insane catches so there seems to be a little boom bust to his hands. I was not a fan of the pick, but Coleman does have some freak athletic traits and some elusiveness for a player his size so I hope Brady can play to his strengths and Coleman can continue to develop as a route runner and his catching ability. He is young and if he is willing to put in the work it is possible he continues to get better. 

[Sierra Foothills]

30 minutes ago, QCity said:

The guy was MIA for the last half of the season. I don't question his athleticism, but the production isn't there. I assumed these comparisons to Hopkins and Evans are tongue-in-cheek jokes.

 

19 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

You are not factoring in that for his final three games, FSU did not have a functioning qb except at the very beginning of the north alabama game, when Jordan Travis went down early due to a leg injury that ended his season. He also had 5 catches for 86 yards and 2 tds vs Clemson.

 

3 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Agreed, they were on their 3rd QB by seasons end.

 

[Dillenger4]

Oh boy - this board is a bunch of general TV watching, wing eating doofies. (I kid)

Coleman is a stud, full stop. He led the ACC in TD's, he is the BEST adjustment WR in the draft. The BEST. Adjusting to passes thrown up (high) back left/right he was rated #1. Now look at Josh who isn't the most accurate at all times and we secured a strong WR who will catch the ball and also block for us.

He is very good at the cross routes too... so underneath cross routes. That's Brady.

With Coleman, Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid, Knox and Cook, not to mention Hollins, we are set and Josh has weapons.

Now, go get us a strong RB to add to this weapontry.

[SoonerBillsFan]

6 minutes ago, Dillenger4 said:

Oh boy - this board is a bunch of general TV watching, wing eating doofies. (I kid)

Coleman is a stud, full stop. He led the ACC in TD's, he is the BEST adjustment WR in the draft. The BEST. Adjusting to passes thrown up (high) back left/right he was rated #1. Now look at Josh who isn't the most accurate at all times and we secured a strong WR who will catch the ball and also block for us.

He is very good at the cross routes too... so underneath cross routes. That's Brady.

With Coleman, Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid, Knox and Cook, not to mention Hollins, we are set and Josh has weapons.

Now, go get us a strong RB to add to this weapontry.

And we aren't done adding to the WR room whether it's a vet or draft pick

[Magox]

Early in the process I was not in favor of Keon because of his inability to separate at a high level, I saw some of the other receiving metrics and they weren’t impressive as well.  Then at the moment of the 40 time I was completely against wanting the Bills to consider him.

 

Then I saw him run the gauntlet and the speed he ran through that exercise and the ease of how he was plucking those balls opened up my interest again and I began looking into him a little more.

 

- He ran the fastest gauntlet over the last two years

- Analytics showed his game day timed speed of running routes was faster than most receivers

- His drop rate was very low showing that he has elite hands

- His RAS score is a 9.23 which means overall despite the slower timed combine 40 speed shows he’s a great athlete.

- His pro day 40 time was a 4.53 which is good for his size

- You watch him on film and he definitely does not look slow.

- His body control and ability to contort his body and adjust for passes shows he’s agile for size.  He has great ability to make the contested catches

- He’s a fluid athlete not a stiff upright runner, has various highlights of hurdling defenders

- He was chosen to return punts and led the team in bubble screens which means the team values his athletic ability

- He played for two good programs in back to back years meaning he didn’t have a lot of time to adjust to his new team and get familiar with them.

- Last three games were without their star QB and as a result his production was down skewing his analytics.   Context matters, remember how people just looked at Josh Allen’s completion percentage and formed judgements solely off that?

- Great infectious attitude and hard worker, all his teammates love him

- Decent route runner, not elite but doesn’t have a limited route tree like some chosen ahead of him

- Really good physical blocker

 

He has some shortcomings but he’s very strong in some areas and he’s young.  I expect that he will probably not have tons of targets as a rookie but I do believe he will be valuable for the team early on.   He will be used as a blocker which is important to this offense, he will be used in the red zone and on some deeper passes specially when defenses bring 6 and 7 rushers where I suspect he will have opportunities to make plays.

 

 

 

[Heitz]

34 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I don’t think so. He may have an outlier year or two where he goes over 1k but his career avg imo will be like 900 yards.

 

It’s just hard to make a living on contested catches as your elite trait.

 

Coleman had the same problem McConkey did. I suspect both will be solid pros. I don’t think they have elite ceilings.

 

If Worthy hits, he will be elite. If Legette hits, he will be elite. If Nabers/Odunze/MHJ hit, they will be elite.

 

If Coleman hits, he will be a Mike Williams-type guy who gets paid WR1 money without WR1 production and you will eventually want to move on from. 

 

This guy, about to post the lottery numbers next. 🙄

[Warriorspikes51]

He has a high ceiling, but low floor IMO

 

let’s hope the Bills are right