Rd 2, Pick 33: WR Keon Coleman, Florida State

[BuffaloBillyG]

44 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

Right but I think there’s a real concern with “run slow” still

 

being good at contested catches is great. It being because you face 3 times as many because you are not just average but below average speed is a concern in itself. Even being good at contested catches is a lower percentage throw than going to a guy that actually got open

Weird. Because I could swear for literally years I've seen posts right here on this forum with people wanting to trade for Mike Williams. Big strong WR. He ran a 4.53, BTW. Not blazing, either. 

 

Now, I'm a person that has screamed for speed myself for years. Get me someone even Allen would have an issue over throwing. So I get it. But I'm willing to, I don't know, let the kid see the practice field and maybe a game or two before I condemn the choice because he doesn't have the skillset I wanted...which is what I see a lot of people doing here.

[Mat68]

Really like his age.  His athleticism is off the charts.  Being a multi sport athlete and playing for a premier basketball program shows just that.   I think him concentrating solely on football later than the other prospects lends to more potential.  He is as fluid a wr in the draft.  His body control and way he runs with the ball tells you he has the physical tools to develop into a high end route runner.  I see him as a bigger more athletic Stevie Johnson.  Many people are looking for a Diggs replacement.  Imo that role is being given to Shakir.  They were looking to replace Davis.  Coleman is that.  

[DapperCam]

1 hour ago, racketmaster said:

I keep hearing that Coleman has much better hands that Gabe Davis but his catch rate was 57.5% last year which was definitely on the lower end of draft prospects. Part of the lower catch rate has to do with such a high portion of his catches ending up being contested since there is no separation. When he makes the jump ball or contested catch it ends up on his highlights and many are sensational plays. However, when you watch all of his targets you see a lot of drops and battles he did not win and come down with the ball. 

Catch rate has a lot to do with what kinds of throws the offense chooses to make, and QB as well. If the QB is inaccurate, catch rate is going to be low because there will be a lot of impossible to make catches on targets your way.

 

That number doesn’t mean a whole lot without context. His drop rate was very low.

[MrEpsYtown]

Just now, Mat68 said:

Really like his age.  His athleticism is off the charts.  Being a multi sport athlete and playing for a premier basketball program shows just that.   I think him concentrating solely on football later than the other prospects lends to more potential.  He is as fluid a wr in the draft.  His body control and way he runs with the ball tells you he has the physical tools to develop into a high end route runner.  I see him as a bigger more athletic Stevie Johnson.  Many people are looking for a Diggs replacement.  Imo that role is being given to Shakir.  They were looking to replace Davis.  Coleman is that.  

Great point. Being a two sport athlete would contribute to some of the rawness in his game as his time was split for so long. Now he will get the highest level of coaching and if he refines his game he is going to be a problem. If you want an ideal piece of clay, this guy is it. 

[NoSaint]

4 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Weird. Because I could swear for literally years I've seen posts right here on this forum with people wanting to trade for Mike Williams. Big strong WR. He ran a 4.53, BTW. Not blazing, either. 

 

Now, I'm a person that has screamed for speed myself for years. Get me someone even Allen would have an issue over throwing. So I get it. But I'm willing to, I don't know, let the kid see the practice field and maybe a game or two before I condemn the choice because he doesn't have the skillset I wanted...which is what I see a lot of people doing here.

and 4.53 is “not running fast”

 

4.61 is “running slow”

 

not everything below 4.4 is created equal and as you get into the 4.6 range and roll in not having a lot of separation on film it’s fair for people to have concerns. 

[Fan in Chicago]

11 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I hope he picks #0. That would be cool. 

That highlight reel says that this guy is going to feast on back shoulder throws. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

2 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

and 4.53 is “not running fast”

 

4.61 is “running slow”

 

not everything below 4.4 is created equal and as you get into the 4.6 range and roll in not having a lot of separation on film it’s fair for people to have concerns. 

Concerns, sure. 

 

Coleman isn't really going to be asked to run in a straight line on a track either. Guys often have a different play speed. But if we want to talk Combine numbers, during the cone drill he was listed at hitting 20.36mph...which was the fastest by any WR in 2 years at the Combine. I'd say that shows he's not exactly Jabba the Hutt running routes.

[DapperCam]

I think people were hoping for a Diggs replacement, but the front office got a Gabe Davis replacement. I’m fairly confident Coleman can be that (and probably even better than Davis).

 

Diggs will be replaced by Shakir and Samuel as a tandem if we don’t make a trade for a vet WR. I think that is fine.

[Sierra Foothills]

17 minutes ago, FireChans said:

What do you predict Coleman will produce at the NFL level if he isn’t a flat out bust?

 

My expectations are based on:

• Being picked at #33
• Gabe Davis' production
• Dalton Kincaid's production
• Joe Brady's spread the ball offense
• Heavy usage in the red zone

Keon will have 600-700 yards and 6-8 TDs as a rookie and his numbers will improve about 20-25% as his career peaks. He'll make a disproportionate amount of big plays and his run blocking will be a big part of the offense.

 

[dave mcbride]

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10090935-keon-coleman-nfl-draft-2024-scouting-report-for-florida-state-wr
 

This report says his comp is Allen Robinson, who also ran a 4.6.

 

Robinson has had a couple of really big seasons: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RobiAl02.htm

[NoSaint]

1 minute ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Concerns, sure. 

 

Coleman isn't really going to be asked to run in a straight line on a track either. Guys often have a different play speed. But if we want to talk Combine numbers, during the cone drill he was listed at hitting 20.36mph...which was the fastest by any WR in 2 years at the Combine. I'd say that shows he's not exactly Jabba the Hutt running routes.

do you think he’s the fastest running routes? 
 

where does this speed show up as separation on tape?

 

I think he will be a fine player, not a bum, but it’s outlier enough that it’s a valid question mark on his upside

[nedboy7]

Interesting stat of the day....

Coleman's 40 time is still a point higher than the collective IQ on here. 

 

 

Edited April 27 by nedboy7

[finn]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Gabe Davis also didn't fight for contested catches. He didn't fight for the football. That's part of the reason Allen's INT rate when targeting Davis was so much higher than everyone else on the team. It's almost like there's more to the WR position than "run fast".

 

 

So to sum up Gabe Davis' abilities, he isn't particularly fast or tall or elusive or clutch, he drops balls on a regular basis, and he doesn't fight for the football. Could it be that what little success he had was the result of playing with the best quarterback in the league?🤔

[DJB]

36 minutes ago, The All-Pro-Knox Gallery said:

40 times are irrelevant. Go watch a football game and tell me how many times you see a receiver sprint 40 yards in a straight line from the line of scrimmage. It’s insane how people will discredit a player who is obviously good on the field. We’re drafting this guy to catch the ball over people. We haven’t had someone who can do that in a very long time.

40 times aside is separation important to you? 
 

Because in my mind it’s most important for a WR

[NoSaint]

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10090935-keon-coleman-nfl-draft-2024-scouting-report-for-florida-state-wr
 

This report says his comp is Allen Robinson, who also ran a 4.6.

 

Robinson has had a couple of really big seasons: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RobiAl02.htm

Plenty of guys have been productive. 
 

hell benjamin was productive for a stretch and likely would’ve had a solid career if motivated. gabe Davis isn’t a bum. 
 

put a CB1 on him and it’s going to be a hard day for him unless they can develop his body or some techniques. 
 

let him run around in zone or vs a shaky cb2 and he may feast a bit. 
 

 

[Big Blitz]

 

[Mat68]

The big question mark is speed.  He doesnt have linear speed like some others have.  Im not going to get into game speed or GOS testing.  Combine is public and everyone can access.  His 10 yard split is above average.  It is in line or better than guys that ran 4.4 or better.  For route running and majority of concepts he will be fine.  

8 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10090935-keon-coleman-nfl-draft-2024-scouting-report-for-florida-state-wr
 

This report says his comp is Allen Robinson, who also ran a 4.6.

 

Robinson has had a couple of really big seasons: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RobiAl02.htm

I see that.  Allen Robinson was a productive wr with some rough passing games.  

[Sweats]

For anyone denouncing this pick, how are you so sure that he will be a failure and not work out for us?

 

Just curious as to why people think it's not a good pick.....

 

Speed?.......yes, he had the slowest 40, however, he had the fastest gauntlet and pass-arounds at the combine by any WR in the past 2 years

 

What else you got?

 

[OldTimer1960]

21 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Weird. Because I could swear for literally years I've seen posts right here on this forum with people wanting to trade for Mike Williams. Big strong WR. He ran a 4.53, BTW. Not blazing, either. 

 

Now, I'm a person that has screamed for speed myself for years. Get me someone even Allen would have an issue over throwing. So I get it. But I'm willing to, I don't know, let the kid see the practice field and maybe a game or two before I condemn the choice because he doesn't have the skillset I wanted...which is what I see a lot of people doing here.

That’s a fair and balanced position.  I was very disappointed last night in the pick.  Not because the kid is an absolute zero as a player (he isn’t), but because at pick 33 I would have liked to get a player who has more quickness and route running skill.  I wasn’t crazy about any of the WR after the big 3 and Thomas, but for sure I would have preferred Legette to Coleman.

 

Coleman is young and sounds like a great kid and hard worker.  He has great overall athletic ability and size, but I really worry about his ability to get open.  In spite of my posts expressing disappointment, I am rooting for him to do great things.  I just don’t know how high his ceiling is - my guess is Gabe Davis with much better hands and more flexibility/smoothness.  If he can become a better route runner he may do better than that.

[NoSaint]

5 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

The big question mark is speed.  He doesnt have linear speed like some others have.  Im not going to get into game speed or GOS testing.  Combine is public and everyone can access.  His 10 yard split is above average.  It is in line or better than guys that ran 4.4 or better.  For route running and majority of concepts he will be fine.  

again though, where do you see that on film?

 

if claiming the exception status based on an underlying metric, where are the catches with him creating separation in the 10 yard split window?  I think that would be the really interesting piece that would make a lot of people feel better.