Rd 2, Pick 33: WR Keon Coleman, Florida State

[BADOLBILZ]

6 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

Seeing how Allen had already hit two guys dead in the hands 20 or more yards down the field he probably felt he had a good chance of hitting another guy in the hands.  I'd argue he should have hit Shakir on 3rd and 9 for what would have been probably a 7 or 8 yard gain all day.  Then think about going for it.  On 2nd and 9 with a guy wide open in the end zone you throw him the ball.

 

 

The first read on that play shouldn't have been a slow developing TD shot play.   Allen made matters worse by staring Shakir down for all 2.85 seconds and then throwing a pass that was closer to being intercepted than caught.   Just a ridiculous situation to put themselves in giving the ease they were having at taking what the defense was giving them all day.   Stunningly reminiscent of Allen unnecessarily throwing the game away in overtime versus the Vikings in 2022.   Same area of field.......2nd and 10......1:18 left........in field goal range........picked off by Patrick Peterson.   

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 21 by BADOLBILZ

[Simon]

23 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The first read on that play shouldn't have been a slow developing TD shot play.   Allen made matters worse by staring Shakir down for all 2.85 seconds and then throwing a pass that was closer to being intercepted than caught.   Just a ridiculous situation to put themselves in giving the ease they were having at taking what the defense was giving them all day.   Stunningly reminiscent of Allen unnecessarily throwing the game away in overtime versus the Vikings in 2022.   Same area of field.......2nd and 10......1:18 left........in field goal range........picked off by Patrick Peterson.   

 

 

 

 

 

 

Miscommunication #634 with Davis

[Richard Noggin]

43 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The first read on that play shouldn't have been a slow developing TD shot play.   Allen made matters worse by staring Shakir down for all 2.85 seconds and then throwing a pass that was closer to being intercepted than caught.   Just a ridiculous situation to put themselves in giving the ease they were having at taking what the defense was giving them all day.   Stunningly reminiscent of Allen unnecessarily throwing the game away in overtime versus the Vikings in 2022.   Same area of field.......2nd and 10......1:18 left........in field goal range........picked off by Patrick Peterson.   

 

 

 

 

 

 

Peterson's comments on this game and this play definitely didn't reflect well on OC Dorsey's passing concepts and personnel usage and the ease in identifying and preparing for those tendencies. Davis' usage in particular in both the run and pass games had become insanely telling pre- and post-snap. Earlier in the game, Minn d-linemen were able to time the Bills negative goal-line sneak in part because of Davis' predictable motion. So obvious, so often. 

 

19 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

Miscommunication #634 with Davis

 

Are you suggesting Davis should have sped-up/shortened his route to protect inside leverage? I see it more as Davis didn't convincingly sell/threaten to the outside, especially in light of Peterson's expectation for Davis to break inside. Was Davis supposed to read Peterson's cheating inside and underneath and then break outside instead? Or did Dorsey simply telegraph the concept with his tendencies and personnel alignments and Peterson slow-played it just enough to bait Allen? 

 

Also some room to criticize the throw, given the DB's leverage. Mirror of the same basic throw he fired into Davis for their 4th TD in the 13 seconds game (just breaking right-to-left instead), late, low trajectory missile that's underthrown if the CB is trailing/anticipating.  

 

[billsfan89]

9 hours ago, pi2000 said:

As time passes the more I believe the offense will struggle due to lack of talented WRs.    

 

I like Coleman, but I don't see him being very productive his rookie season.   

 

Simply too much to learn in this offense for a rookie 2nd rounder to step in right away and contribute.    

 

That said, Kincaid could have a monster year as he will likely be the #1 target for the majority of the season.      

 

However, if teams decide to take away Kincaid I'm afrraid the offense will struggle mightily.     They just don't have the weapons.  

 

It's very possible the offense can struggle without the presence of a true number 1 WR target or multiple consistent "WR2" type players to complement Kincaid. But I also think that the Bills if the offense is struggling could make a move for a WR at the trade deadline. Once Tre's money hits the Bills will have 12.7 million in space. Take out the rookies, Practice squad and a few million for in season emergencies and you have about 3-5 million to actually play with plus another 6 million possible if they convert the rest of Josh's salary to a bonus. That 9-11 million isn't a crazy amount to play with prior to the season in terms of "Star" WR trades. But by the trade deadline 3-5 million can go a long way and 9-11 million can go a really long way. And considering the Bills have an extra 2nd and 4th round pick from Minny and Chicago they have the draft ammo to make any trade. 

[BADOLBILZ]

10 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

Peterson's comments on this game and this play definitely didn't reflect well on OC Dorsey's passing concepts and personnel usage and the ease in identifying and preparing for those tendencies. Davis' usage in particular in both the run and pass games had become insanely telling pre- and post-snap. Earlier in the game, Minn d-linemen were able to time the Bills negative goal-line sneak in part because of Davis' predictable motion. So obvious, so often. 

 

 

Are you suggesting Davis should have sped-up/shortened his route to protect inside leverage? I see it more as Davis didn't convincingly sell/threaten to the outside, especially in light of Peterson's expectation for Davis to break inside. Was Davis supposed to read Peterson's cheating inside and underneath and then break outside instead? Or did Dorsey simply telegraph the concept with his tendencies and personnel alignments and Peterson slow-played it just enough to bait Allen? 

 

Also some room to criticize the throw, given the DB's leverage. Mirror of the same basic throw he fired into Davis for their 4th TD in the 13 seconds game (just breaking right-to-left instead), late, low trajectory missile that's underthrown if the CB is trailing/anticipating.  

 

 

 

Remember last summer when Allen said his offseason work was centered around "in-breaking routes" and then the season kinda' ended because of an incompletion on an in-breaking route?  

 

Oops.

 

Forcing those throws vs. Minnesota in 2022 and KC in the 2023 playoff loss when they had the defense on their heels just looks like impatience and a lack of maturity.

11 hours ago, Simon said:

 

Miscommunication #634 with Davis

 

 

The whole back 7 was backpedaling to the end zone and Singletary was left truly wide open for AT LEAST a first down.........if not a touchdown.

 

 

[Einstein's Dog]

13 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

 

It's very possible the offense can struggle without the presence of a true number 1 WR target or multiple consistent "WR2" type players to complement Kincaid. But I also think that the Bills if the offense is struggling could make a move for a WR at the trade deadline. Once Tre's money hits the Bills will have 12.7 million in space. Take out the rookies, Practice squad and a few million for in season emergencies and you have about 3-5 million to actually play with plus another 6 million possible if they convert the rest of Josh's salary to a bonus. That 9-11 million isn't a crazy amount to play with prior to the season in terms of "Star" WR trades. But by the trade deadline 3-5 million can go a long way and 9-11 million can go a really long way. And considering the Bills have an extra 2nd and 4th round pick from Minny and Chicago they have the draft ammo to make any trade. 

Of course it's possible to struggle with no WR1 or WR2.  It perplexes me that people think it is okay to go into the season in this manner.  Safe to say the FO knows how poorly this WR group is in comparison to the rest of the league, only the most die-hard of fans struggle to acknowledge it. 

 

What a poor strategy it would be to say we'll wait until we struggle to do anything - we know it's a weakness right now.  

 

I also feel confident that Beane has known what it would take to get a WR that totally changes the complexion of the WR group.  I believe your cap analysis overestimates the potential cap hit of what they could do for a WR.  Someone in another thread mentioned that Diggs cap hit with Houston is $6M.  An article by a Pitt guy stated that to get Metcalf you would need $13M and then you could do an easy restructure to reduce his cap hit by about $6M.

[Maine-iac]

3 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Of course it's possible to struggle with no WR1 or WR2.  It perplexes me that people think it is okay to go into the season in this manner.  Safe to say the FO knows how poorly this WR group is in comparison to the rest of the league, only the most die-hard of fans struggle to acknowledge it. 

 

What a poor strategy it would be to say we'll wait until we struggle to do anything - we know it's a weakness right now.  

 

I also feel confident that Beane has known what it would take to get a WR that totally changes the complexion of the WR group.  I believe your cap analysis overestimates the potential cap hit of what they could do for a WR.  Someone in another thread mentioned that Diggs cap hit with Houston is $6M.  An article by a Pitt guy stated that to get Metcalf you would need $13M and then you could do an easy restructure to reduce his cap hit by about $6M.

Would it resemble going into the season without a star MLB?

 

7 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

The whole back 7 was backpedaling to the end zone and Singletary was left truly wide open for AT LEAST a first down.........if not a touchdown.

 

 

Morris (85) flashed open off the line of scrimmage for what probably would have been 8 to 10 yards.  Peterson talks a lot of smack for part of a secondary that gave up 220 yards and a TD to Diggs and Davis and should have lost in regulation.

[Einstein's Dog]

47 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

Would it resemble going into the season without a star MLB?

 

True, and I was nervous last year over that spot.  I consider that spot less vital though so I wasn't in panic mode.

 

And who would our hidden gem be?  Maybe Shorter?  I'm not buying it.

[Buffalo716]

23 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

True, and I was nervous last year over that spot.  I consider that spot less vital though so I wasn't in panic mode.

 

And who would our hidden gem be?  Maybe Shorter?  I'm not buying it.

These are Professional football players... Every single one is oozing with talent 

 

All it takes is one guy to understand his situation and seize the reins 

 

I wasn't panicked last year either because I knew they had a guy to take the spot... Your number one guy gets all the reps 

 

It's hard to improve when you don't get the reps... Bernard and Dodson  both are really good football players and one of them were going to pop because they were getting professional treatment ... That was going to Edmunds before 

 

Shakir and Samuel are probably going to look two times better because they get practice reps... Then you add in Kincaid and knox who is still a physical freak 

 

Our line which is going to be very good... With James Cook and Ray Davis 

 

Coleman is going to play well when his number is asked and he's not going to be asked to be a superstar out the gate 

 

He's going to be asked to score touchdowns inside the 20

Edited May 21 by Buffalo716

[Maine-iac]

14 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

True, and I was nervous last year over that spot.  I consider that spot less vital though so I wasn't in panic mode.

 

And who would our hidden gem be?  Maybe Shorter?  I'm not buying it.

I was more worried about MLB last year than I am WR this year.  I'm probably feeling WR the way you felt MLB.  I just don't think it's that vital if you look at SB winners over the last ten years it's mostly about QB's and TE's with mix and match WR's.  There's maybe two outside WR's and one RB who had a big enough role you could argue they were more important than the TE on their SB winning team.  The large majority of the SB winning teams were all an elite QB, a great TE/Slot WR, and the rest is supporting cast.  The better the defense the better your chances.  

Mahommes with Tyreek Hill and a SB win.

4740 yards   38TDs   6ints

Mahommes with no Tyreek Hill and a SB win.

5250 yards  41TDs   12ints

 

Pretty sure all the WR's not named Tyreek from those two SB's can be had off the waiver wire.

[oldmanfan]

1 hour ago, Einstein's Dog said:

True, and I was nervous last year over that spot.  I consider that spot less vital though so I wasn't in panic mode.

 

And who would our hidden gem be?  Maybe Shorter?  I'm not buying it.

I think the guy in the middle of the defense calling signals is pretty vital.

[Simon]

21 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

Are you suggesting Davis should have sped-up/shortened his route to protect inside leverage? I see it more as Davis didn't convincingly sell/threaten to the outside, especially in light of Peterson's expectation for Davis to break inside. Was Davis supposed to read Peterson's cheating inside and underneath and then break outside instead? Or did Dorsey simply telegraph the concept with his tendencies and personnel alignments and Peterson slow-played it just enough to bait Allen? 

 

Also some room to criticize the throw, given the DB's leverage. Mirror of the same basic throw he fired into Davis for their 4th TD in the 13 seconds game (just breaking right-to-left instead), late, low trajectory missile that's underthrown if the CB is trailing/anticipating.

 

It was clearly an atrocious decision by Allen, regardless of whether Davis also blew the route.

 

I guess I was just commenting on how frustrating it was to watch these guys play together for 4 full season and still never really ever get on the same page.

I'm curious whether Davis will have the same issues going forward.

[Richard Noggin]

2 hours ago, Simon said:

 

It was clearly an atrocious decision by Allen, regardless of whether Davis also blew the route.

 

I guess I was just commenting on how frustrating it was to watch these guys play together for 4 full season and still never really ever get on the same page.

I'm curious whether Davis will have the same issues going forward.

 

Does Pederson employ a high volume of option routes? He's from the Reid tree, so seems likely there is room for complexity in his passing concepts. If so, that's where Davis seemed to struggle, and his QB struggled in turn when targeting him. 

 

That TB game remains such a weird outlier, however, that suggests maybe Davis CAN do other stuff, and just ordinarily wasn't asked to? (doubtful, but maybe that playbook just did not suit him)

[3rdand12]

On 5/21/2024 at 1:50 PM, Einstein's Dog said:

Of course it's possible to struggle with no WR1 or WR2.  It perplexes me that people think it is okay to go into the season in this manner.  Safe to say the FO knows how poorly this WR group is in comparison to the rest of the league, only the most die-hard of fans struggle to acknowledge it. 

 

What a poor strategy it would be to say we'll wait until we struggle to do anything - we know it's a weakness right now.  

 

I also feel confident that Beane has known what it would take to get a WR that totally changes the complexion of the WR group.  I believe your cap analysis overestimates the potential cap hit of what they could do for a WR.  Someone in another thread mentioned that Diggs cap hit with Houston is $6M.  An article by a Pitt guy stated that to get Metcalf you would need $13M and then you could do an easy restructure to reduce his cap hit by about $6M.

Right after the draft , I thought Beane must be looking to next year possibly for a 1A or 1b.

He will be in a better financial position , and still have good enough draft equity to go for something juicy

But this season he is going to let it shake out and let Brady figure the details. McBeanes went bigger it seems in the WR.

Thats a change in philosophy.

 next year perhaps

But i have faith that Bills will be very competitive offensively this season right into the playoffs.

 Its likely a slightly better team overall than last year

 

and we failed cuz injury killed Bills Defense late in the season. and coaching on both sides

 

Go Keon !!

[TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th]

Anyone hear Allen's presser where he was asked about keon and the first thing josh said was how much keon talked? 

 

I kinda get where josh is coming from. As funny and cool as keon seems, I could see his personality as an acquired taste. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

20 hours ago, 3rdand12 said:

Right after the draft , I thought Beane must be looking to next year possibly for a 1A or 1b.

He will be in a better financial position , and still have good enough draft equity to go for something juicy

But this season he is going to let it shake out and let Brady figure the details. McBeanes went bigger it seems in the WR.

Thats a change in philosophy.

 next year perhaps

But i have faith that Bills will be very competitive offensively this season right into the playoffs.

 Its likely a slightly better team overall than last year

 

and we failed cuz injury killed Bills Defense late in the season. and coaching on both sides

 

Go Keon !!

I think if anything we see a FA move next year if needed at WR. I don't see them taking a pass catcher with their first overall pick for a third straight year. Especially if Coleman has a season that is comparable to Kincaid's rookie year last season. I think as long as Coleman shows progress they "embrace the growth mindset".

 

Now, if things start slowly and Coleman has little to no impact early or there are injuries..I CAN see Beane spending one of those 2nd rounders on a WR near the trade deadline...but that's another conversation for another day lol.

[Shaw66]

4 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I think if anything we see a FA move next year if needed at WR. I don't see them taking a pass catcher with their first overall pick for a third straight year. Especially if Coleman has a season that is comparable to Kincaid's rookie year last season. I think as long as Coleman shows progress they "embrace the growth mindset".

 

Now, if things start slowly and Coleman has little to no impact early or there are injuries..I CAN see Beane spending one of those 2nd rounders on a WR near the trade deadline...but that's another conversation for another day lol.

This makes a lot of sense.   I think the Bills are happy where they are right now, and they want to see how all the questions get answered. 

 

What questions?  Will Shakir be more productive?  Will Kincaid be more productive?  Will Samuel be more productive?   Will Coleman pay early dividends?   Will MVS be at least as good as he has been over his career?  Will Claypool resurrect himself?  

 

If enough of those questions get answered positively, the Bills won't need help.   But if there aren't enough positive answers, Beane will be shopping.  I've been one to suggest that there might be a post-June 1 trade with the 49ers, but one of the problems with that from the 49ers' point of view is they lose a talent for the entire season and they don't get anything in return until the 2025 draft.  Also, they don't know yet how their rookies are fitting in.  If it's a mid-season, trade deadline deal, that's better for them.  If their rookie is productive, they know they can afford to lose one of their stars, and the 2025 draft is that much closer.  

 

I think there's going to be a lot of excitement in Highmark this fall.  The first time Coleman catches the ball with running room, it's going to be fun.  And Samuel too.  I actually think that Coleman, Samuel, Shakir, MVS (or Claypool) will be better than Diggs, Davis, Shakir.  

[Mat68]

16 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I think if anything we see a FA move next year if needed at WR. I don't see them taking a pass catcher with their first overall pick for a third straight year. Especially if Coleman has a season that is comparable to Kincaid's rookie year last season. I think as long as Coleman shows progress they "embrace the growth mindset".

 

Now, if things start slowly and Coleman has little to no impact early or there are injuries..I CAN see Beane spending one of those 2nd rounders on a WR near the trade deadline...but that's another conversation for another day lol.

Maybe mid season like the Douglas trade.  I think for the most part they like Shakir, Samuel and Coleman enough as a core to roll with it.  The other wrs in the room are role players.

[BuffaloBillyG]

22 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

This makes a lot of sense.   I think the Bills are happy where they are right now, and they want to see how all the questions get answered. 

 

What questions?  Will Shakir be more productive?  Will Kincaid be more productive?  Will Samuel be more productive?   Will Coleman pay early dividends?   Will MVS be at least as good as he has been over his career?  Will Claypool resurrect himself?  

 

If enough of those questions get answered positively, the Bills won't need help.   But if there aren't enough positive answers, Beane will be shopping.  I've been one to suggest that there might be a post-June 1 trade with the 49ers, but one of the problems with that from the 49ers' point of view is they lose a talent for the entire season and they don't get anything in return until the 2025 draft.  Also, they don't know yet how their rookies are fitting in.  If it's a mid-season, trade deadline deal, that's better for them.  If their rookie is productive, they know they can afford to lose one of their stars, and the 2025 draft is that much closer.  

 

I think there's going to be a lot of excitement in Highmark this fall.  The first time Coleman catches the ball with running room, it's going to be fun.  And Samuel too.  I actually think that Coleman, Samuel, Shakir, MVS (or Claypool) will be better than Diggs, Davis, Shakir.  

 

21 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Maybe mid season like the Douglas trade.  I think for the most part they like Shakir, Samuel and Coleman enough as a core to roll with it.  The other wrs in the room are role players.

Honestly, the WR debates remind me a lot of the MLB debates from last off season. You both hit the nail on the head, I think, when you say they like what they have for now. There are questions from the outside for sure. But I have to believe from what I've seen them do in the past that they aren't just throwing 💩 at the wall hoping it sticks. There is a plan and I'm sure the plan is based around what Joe Brady believes he can get from this group. I'm really looking forward to seeing how it shakes out. I do think at least one or two of these cast of WRs steps up. 

[Shaw66]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

 

Honestly, the WR debates remind me a lot of the MLB debates from last off season. You both hit the nail on the head, I think, when you say they like what they have for now. There are questions from the outside for sure. But I have to believe from what I've seen them do in the past that they aren't just throwing 💩 at the wall hoping it sticks. There is a plan and I'm sure the plan is based around what Joe Brady believes he can get from this group. I'm really looking forward to seeing how it shakes out. I do think at least one or two of these cast of WRs steps up. 

This is exactly what I think, and I'm regularly amazed that fans are so perplexed by moves McBeane make.  They don't do haphazard.  They don't do spur of the moment.   They don't do wild-ass guess.  

 

They study and think and plan, then challenge everyone in the organization to execute.  

 

For example, I think it's pretty impressive how they've built an offensive line.  Pretty much everyone here, including me, complained regularly about the oline five years ago.  I was watching one of the Josh career-highlight videos, and over and over again on the backs of offensive linemen I saw names I didn't even remember.  

 

I think a very good argument can be made that the roster has improved every season, including the wide receiver roster this season.  And if my Aiyuk pipedream becomes reality, there will be no question.