Rd 2, Pick 33: WR Keon Coleman, Florida State

[Buffalo_Stampede]

So tomorrow we get to see Josh throwing passes to Coleman. Right?

[Augie]

1 minute ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

So tomorrow we get to see Josh throwing passes to Coleman. Right?

 

I think tomorrow we should get to see which one of them can hit the press box. That should come first, and THEN they can start football things. 

[transient]

16 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

Thanks for your response.  You duplicated posts, by the way; NBD but you might want to delete one.

 

As far as hard to believe, no, it's not hard to believe that individually, they can improve.  In the post you're responding to, I laid out the jump in production by Beasley, Brown, and Diggs upon joining the Bills and having Allen as their QB.

 

What I think is wishful thinking, is that we'll get the number of improvements we need to sustain an elite passing offense.  Even Kansas City struggled through the season offensively and finished with the 15th ranked offense, though Mahomes did pass for 4,183 yds - and their offense still had Kelce as its linchpin.  Fortunately for them, Rice "got it" and took off towards the end of the season, and the rest is history.

 

So something similar could happen with the Bills, although, KC was carried through the season by great defense and I'm not sure our defense is gonna be there this year.

The thing I'm holding out hope for is, MVS and Claypool aside, these guys can catch the ball. KC struggled last season because their WRs dropped everything... they were the league worst. Allen showed in his rookie season that even with sh!te receivers he's willing to throw the ball to them. I'm assuming the combination of Kincaid, Shakir, Samuel and hopefully Coleman will have a lot better catch percentage than they did last season with Diggs on cruise control and Gabe "Kelvin" Davis. Hopefully Cook learns to concentrate on catching sure TDs and Knox is healed from his wrist injury, as well.

[3rdand12]

18 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Well let's see we have ...

Coleman

Shakir

Samuel 

MVS

Hollins

Claypool

Kincaid

Knox

Cook.

 

If all of them got 500 yards that's 4500 yards. 

 

I would expect the average of that group to be higher.  Fans still try so hard to predict what can't be predicted.   We will not have a " #1" wr in this offense. Many of us said what Beane just did, from week to week #1 may change, and I expect it to.

 

Believe it or not that is a really good thing, and fans need to grips with this concept fast because beane confirmed this is the approach this year.

 

Lastly, where were the majority of Allen's it's last year % wise?  Davis and Diggs.  That happens when you force the ball vs throwing it to whomever is open and not worrying about egos.

This.

 we should accept that Allen can make better reads pre and post snap. Find the open guys and just roll down the field
Hoping Brady coaches him up for full field scans and Kromers gives him enough time 

[GASabresIUFan]

17 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

Thanks for your response.  You duplicated posts, by the way; NBD but you might want to delete one.

 

As far as hard to believe, no, it's not hard to believe that individually, they can improve.  In the post you're responding to, I laid out the jump in production by Beasley, Brown, and Diggs upon joining the Bills and having Allen as their QB.

 

What I think is wishful thinking, is that we'll get the number of improvements we need to sustain an elite passing offense.  Even Kansas City struggled through the season offensively and finished with the 15th ranked offense, though Mahomes did pass for 4,183 yds - and their offense still had Kelce as its linchpin.  Fortunately for them, Rice "got it" and took off towards the end of the season, and the rest is history.

 

So something similar could happen with the Bills, although, KC was carried through the season by great defense and I'm not sure our defense is gonna be there this year.

But KC's depth behind Kelce and Rice was Justin Watson and MVS who may not even make the Bills.  Pacheco was their best RB.  Our 3rd and 4th option and RB are all better players.

 

That KC won with defense and really only 2 consistent options catching the ball is a true testament to Reid and Mahomes. 

[BADOLBILZ]

20 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

That play was an easy TD had Chris Jones not blown Dawkins into Allen on the throw stepping on his foot.  

 

 Shakir burned his coverage and thats a strike Josh makes pretty much every time 

 

 

 

 

Josh Allen completed 30% of his 20+ air yards throws in the 2023 season.

[SoonerBillsFan]

On 5/19/2024 at 3:40 PM, 3rdand12 said:

This.

 we should accept that Allen can make better reads pre and post snap. Find the open guys and just roll down the field
Hoping Brady coaches him up for full field scans and Kromers gives him enough time 

The time to throw for Josh was good last year.  He just needs to learn to hit his back foot and throw.

Edited May 20 by SoonerBillsFan

[Maine-iac]

3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Josh Allen completed 30% of his 20+ air yards throws in the 2023 season.

I mean technically you are right.  His completion percentage on throws like that in that game alone probably also wasn't great but that doesn't mean Josh can't make the throw.  Diggs dropped his, Sherfield dropped his, and Allen got hit on the throw to Shakir.  Passing chart says he made 4 throws over 20 yards and 3 of those at a minimum had nothing to do with Josh being able to make the throw.  

[Beck Water]

5 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

But KC's depth behind Kelce and Rice was Justin Watson and MVS who may not even make the Bills.  Pacheco was their best RB.  Our 3rd and 4th option and RB are all better players.

 

That KC won with defense and really only 2 consistent options catching the ball is a true testament to Reid and Mahomes. 

 

Fair point.  I'm pretty confident MVS will make the Bills, barring some trade or FA move that I don't see happening at present.  Also not sure I grant the "our RB is better than Pacheco" point - in their 2 years in the league, both have similar Y/Sc and touches, but that's a nit and arguably an appreciation of a different running style.

 

The thing is, in my post (and yours to which I responded), I was talking about the number of improvements we need to sustain an elite passing offense.  KC started the year with Pat's "guy", Travis Kelce, who is elite.  If I grant that our #3 and #4 WR are better than KCs, the point remains that we're going into the season without one demonstrated "freakazoid" on offense.

 

And there's also the point that last season, KC did not have an elite passing offense until late in the season/playoffs.  I believe they finished the season #6 or 8 or something for passing yards, which is great but they were #2 for attempts (!!!) and #3 for completions, which means they weren't getting a lot of y/a (#19 there).  And remember that's WITH their future HOF TE on the field.

 

I'm concerned that our passing game is not going to look like "all that and a bag of chips".

[PrimeTime101]

On 5/18/2024 at 10:26 PM, SoonerBillsFan said:

Well let's see we have ...

Coleman 850 yards

Shakir 650 yards

Samuel 550 yards

MVS 350 yards

Hollins 400 yards

Claypool 250 yards

Kincaid 850 yards

Knox 350 yards

Cook. 350 yards

 

If all of them got 500 yards that's 4500 yards. 

 

I would expect the average of that group to be higher.  Fans still try so hard to predict what can't be predicted.   We will not have a " #1" wr in this offense. Many of us said what Beane just did, from week to week #1 may change, and I expect it to.

 

Believe it or not that is a really good thing, and fans need to grips with this concept fast because beane confirmed this is the approach this year.

 

Lastly, where were the majority of Allen's it's last year % wise?  Davis and Diggs.  That happens when you force the ball vs throwing it to whomever is open and not worrying about egos.

yard prediction time for me. Numbers are Bolded in the body ^^  Some think Kincaid will get the most yards but Brady has proved that we don't care who gets how many yards, but who is open in JA read progression.   This is what would make our offense scarry because defenses will have a hard time knowing where the ball is going.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

6 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Josh Allen completed 30% of his 20+ air yards throws in the 2023 season.

What was he at wide open post routes in the middle of the end zone though lol. Probably higher than that 

[Gugny]

10 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

What was he at wide open post routes in the middle of the end zone though lol. Probably higher than that 

Just like any professional QB. 

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

I mean technically you are right.  His completion percentage on throws like that in that game alone probably also wasn't great but that doesn't mean Josh can't make the throw.  Diggs dropped his, Sherfield dropped his, and Allen got hit on the throw to Shakir.  Passing chart says he made 4 throws over 20 yards and 3 of those at a minimum had nothing to do with Josh being able to make the throw.  

 

 

Factually not "techically".

 

I am correct that the Bills completed less than 1/3 of the 20+ air yards throws they attempted in the 2023 season (which is about 10th best in the NFL).

 

Therefore making it a play call with a statistically low probability of succeeding to begin with.

 

Yet I have been told in no uncertain terms by @Alphadawg7 (among others) that they apparently complete that throw 100% of the time....if not for.........pressure???

 

Because who would EVER have expected to see pressure on an obvious passing down? 

 

The arguments that people try to make to excuse the stupidity of that play call are absurd.

 

I understand why though..........because to criticize the play is to also criticize Josh Allen for running it and also dirting the throw in the end zone when he had a safer throw underneath and plenty of time to work with.   And ultimately,  some fans won't attribute even a fraction of a percent of the blame for the team not winning a game on Allen.    

 

[Alphadawg7]

46 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Factually not "techically".

 

I am correct that the Bills completed less than 1/3 of the 20+ air yards throws they attempted in the 2023 season (which is about 10th best in the NFL).

 

Therefore making it a play call with a statistically low probability of succeeding to begin with.

 

Yet I have been told in no uncertain terms by @Alphadawg7 (among others) that they apparently complete that throw 100% of the time....if not for.........pressure???

 

Because who would EVER have expected to see pressure on an obvious passing down? 

 

The arguments that people try to make to excuse the stupidity of that play call are absurd.

 

I understand why though..........because to criticize the play is to also criticize Josh Allen for running it and also dirting the throw in the end zone when he had a safer throw underneath and plenty of time to work with.   And ultimately,  some fans won't attribute even a fraction of a percent of the blame for the team not winning a game on Allen.    

 

Lol, you and I both know that the “he completed 30% of his 20 yard throws” is just a nonsense response to exaggerate your point to support your opinion of the play.

 

I know you are smarter than that.  The “30%” includes throw aways, drops, low percentage throws, etc.  Allen making that throw to Shakir is not one he completes at just a 30% rate.  Allen doesn’t miss wide open WRs like that 70% of the time.  
 

Josh completes that pass a HIGH percentage of the time if he doesn’t get stepped on.  And I would bet big money you know that too.  So I get it, you don’t like the play…but let’s not grossly over exaggerate things here.  I mean it’s ok to admit Josh likely completes that pass had not for being stepped on and still hate the play call.  
 

 

Edited May 20 by Alphadawg7

[Mat68]

17 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

But KC's depth behind Kelce and Rice was Justin Watson and MVS who may not even make the Bills.  Pacheco was their best RB.  Our 3rd and 4th option and RB are all better players.

 

That KC won with defense and really only 2 consistent options catching the ball is a true testament to Reid and Mahomes. 

Add in Kelce is going to be 35. Last season 120 targets 98 catches and 980 yards 5 Tds.  Very good season for a Te.  I think in a vacuum many peoples expectation for Kincaid are higher than that.  I think Kincaid could match or surpass any or all of those metrics.  I think Coleman has the potential to be very good. If he is the conversation at wr ends.   

[Warcodered]

19 hours ago, DJB said:

 

Brady writing furious notes.

[Roundybout]

 

[BADOLBILZ]

10 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Lol, you and I both know that the “he completed 30% of his 20 yard throws” is just a nonsense response to exaggerate your point to support your opinion of the play.

 

I know you are smarter than that.  The “30%” includes throw aways, drops, low percentage throws, etc.  Allen making that throw to Shakir is not one he completes at just a 30% rate.  Allen doesn’t miss wide open WRs like that 70% of the time.  
 

Josh completes that pass a HIGH percentage of the time if he doesn’t get stepped on.  And I would bet big money you know that too.  So I get it, you don’t like the play…but let’s not grossly over exaggerate things here.  I mean it’s ok to admit Josh likely completes that pass had not for being stepped on and still hate the play call.  
 

 

 

1) It's just a statistical fact that 20+ air yard attempts are low completion percentage throws.  

 

2)  We've already established that 20+ air yard throws are all low % throws.   Nobody completes those in volume half the time, let alone the near 60% league completion average.  And every range of passes attempted includes "throw aways and drops".   In fact, there are A LOT more of both of those within 20 air yards of the LOS than beyond that.   Think sack-avoids, screen dirts etc..    

 

3) So when Josh attempted 72 throws of 20+ air yards on the season and 70% of them fell incomplete are you claiming that he was "stepped on" on those 70% incompletions?  

 

You are the one grossly exaggerating.    Never at any point from the play being called thru the ball landing way off target was it anything close to a given that the throw would be successful.    You are just up in your emotions about it and can't be rational.

 

 

Edited May 20 by BADOLBILZ

[Warcodered]

10 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Lol, you and I both know that the “he completed 30% of his 20 yard throws” is just a nonsense response to exaggerate your point to support your opinion of the play.

 

I know you are smarter than that.  The “30%” includes throw aways, drops, low percentage throws, etc.  Allen making that throw to Shakir is not one he completes at just a 30% rate.  Allen doesn’t miss wide open WRs like that 70% of the time.  
 

Josh completes that pass a HIGH percentage of the time if he doesn’t get stepped on.  And I would bet big money you know that too.  So I get it, you don’t like the play…but let’s not grossly over exaggerate things here.  I mean it’s ok to admit Josh likely completes that pass had not for being stepped on and still hate the play call.  
 

 

He was also saying to Shakir specifically before, weirdly stopped saying that, almost like he was laughably wrong, now that he's saying this 30% thing conveniently leaves him out of it, so is it still 30% when he was throwing 20 yard throws to Shakir?

[Logic]

I would just like to say, after a few weeks of seeing how much personality and character Keon has, how smart and how hard of a worker he seems to be, etc...

I will be rooting incredibly hard for this kid to succeed and make me look like a bozo. I've been very vocal about not liking the pick and not being wild about the prospect. That said, I'm not one of those "hope to see the player fail in order to confirm my take and make me look smart" kind of people. I'd waaaay rather be proven wrong, the way I was with Josh Allen.

Few players are as likable as Keon Coleman. Few have endeared themselves to Bills fans as quickly as he has. He is clearly a very physically talented player, and he's clearly a good and funny and likable dude. His succeeding will help the Bills succeed. I will be rooting hard for him for his sake, for the Bills' sake, and for the sake of getting to continue to see his comedic gifts and seemingly great character on display for years to come.

Go Keon! Go Bills!