Rd 2, Pick 33: WR Keon Coleman, Florida State

[Milanos Milano]

I’ve wanted Keon for quite a while now. I’ve had him in my mock draft targets for over a year. This dude can catch, a total ball magnet. Don’t worry about his slow 40 time, when the pads go on, and actually running football routes, he has plenty of game speed. This guy will be our #1, I’m excited to watch him. He reminds me so much of Mike Evans. 

[Warriorspikes51]

18 hours ago, Awwufelloff said:

Still don't like this pick at all, hope to be proven wrong.

I felt that way too for sure.  I'm OK with it and hope he is the Josh Allen of WR's effective immediately 😎

[Buffalo_Stampede]

19 hours ago, Awwufelloff said:

Still don't like this pick at all, hope to be proven wrong.

I never hated it because he’s our future WR2, not WR1. Our future WR1 isn’t on the roster yet. He’ll be drafted in the top 10 next year.

Edited May 13 by Buffalo_Stampede

[Sweats]

We'll pick up our WR1 next year when we're picking in the top 10 of the draft.........JK

[Buffalo_Stampede]

3 minutes ago, Sweats said:

We'll pick up our WR1 next year when we're picking in the top 10 of the draft.........JK

I’m not joking. Tough schedule, roster in transition. 7-10 season.

 

Future Buffalo Bill Tetairoa McMillan.

[Warcodered]

22 minutes ago, Sweats said:

We'll pick up our WR1 next year when we're picking in the top 10 of the draft.........JK

We do have the Vikings 2nd round pick and look like they might be awful this year as well as our own, so not for nothing but we are positioned to be able to move up even if we aren't picking high.

[Shaw66]

46 minutes ago, Milanos Milano said:

He reminds me so much of Mike Evans. 

Finally, someone who agrees with me.   When the Bills drafted him and I watched some video, Mike Evans was who I thought of.  

 

Here's Evans' draft profile on NFL.com:

 

Quote

Overview

 

A prep hoopster with shooting-guard size, Evans combined with Johnny Manziel to form one of the most dominant quarterback-receiver connections in the nation the last two seasons. He’s a big, physical, strong-handed, West Coast possession receiver with playmaking ability who projects as a No. 2 in the pros where he will make his money as a chain mover and red-zone target.

 

Strengths

 

Outstanding size and length. Functionally strong to power through the jam. Boxes out defenders and is a big red-zone target. Hardwood background is evident -- outstanding leaper with "above-the-rim" skills to go over top of smaller DBs and highpoint throws. Creates late, subtle separation. Tracks and adjusts. Makes contested grabs -- attacks throws and outmuscles defenders in a crowd. Nearly unstoppable executing back-shoulder catches. Strong, reliable hands. Very strong after the catch -- slams into tacklers, is a load to bring down and leans for extra yardage. Productive playmaker -- averaged 20 yards per catch in 2013 and showed up in big games (18-566-5 vs. Alabama and Auburn). Good blocker. Physically dominant and tough. Will be a 21-year-old rookie.

 

Weaknesses

 

Monotone mover with pedestrian speed -- cannot separate vertically or pull away from the pack. Unsudden acceleration. Stiff hips. Will have to make a living in traffic at the next level -- will struggle to separate vs. quick-twitch NFL cornerbacks. Did not run a full route tree and could require patience learning the nuances of refined route running. Backyard element to his college success -- must become savvier instead of depending on superior size and improvisational production. Can be hotheaded and lose control of his emotions. Basketball was first love.

 

Sound familiar?

 

I think once he works his way into the league, he's going to be a regular 1000-yard receiver.  

[Saint Doug]

58 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I’m not joking. Tough schedule, roster in transition. 7-10 season.

 

Future Buffalo Bill Tetairoa McMillan.

We’re much more likely to sign a #1 in FA with Diggs $30M coming off the books next year than to pick in the Top 10. 

[Maine-iac]

20 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Yes until 2nd and 9 after the 2 minute warning.   A choice more perplexing than anything that transpired during 13 seconds.

 

 

I didn't find the choice perplexing at all.  The 1st read was a TD and it was there.  Blocking didn't hold up.  No denying Diggs was open hot but the play was drawn up to score and the throw was there.  

 

[Buffalo716]

My honest predictions for keon Coleman stats this year 

 

63 catches 900 yards 10 TDs

[Logic]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Finally, someone who agrees with me.   When the Bills drafted him and I watched some video, Mike Evans was who I thought of.  

 

Here's Evans' draft profile on NFL.com:

 

Sound familiar?

 

Thanks for that post. From the perspective of the scouting report "strengths" and "weaknesses" and the overall comparison of their physical traits, I definitely see where you're coming from.

The one thing I'd caution with that comparison is that Mike Evans was A LOT more productive in college. 

Mike Evans posted 1,105 yards and 5 TDs as a freshman (!), then followed it up with 1,394 yards and 12 TDs as a sophomore.

Coleman, meanwhile, posted 50 yards and 1 TD as a freshman, then followed it up with 798 yards and 7 TDs as a sophomore. He never topped 798 yards in a college season.

So a big part of the thing that makes me nervous about Coleman is that he never really proved he could be truly dominant at the college level. It's hard, therefore, for me to predict that he'll be able to do it in the pros, where the level of competition goes up significantly. Evans, meanwhile, dominated his entire college career. Obviously, the job of NFL scouts is to find projectable traits and to look into the future a bit. Also, clearly, Beane and his crew feel confident in their ability to take physically gifted guys with limited college production and coach them up. Josh Allen says hi.

Still...given Coleman's relative lack of college production, it's hard for me to bite particularly hard on that comparison.

Edited May 13 by Logic

[Maine-iac]

7 hours ago, Doc said:

 

I'm expecting Samuel, assuming he stays healthy, will have his best season as a pro and eclipse 1,000 yards.

Percy Harvin ruined me on speedy, veteran WR's, who have potential.  I hope you are right.

[3rdand12]

On 5/12/2024 at 6:21 PM, NoSaint said:

specifically my original post was in response  to someone saying the wr room was solid. While I’ll say cook and Kincaid are solid- they unfortunately run a lot of the some routes into the same zones that our existing WRs do. There’s definitely some initial gaps in the WR room that a back just doesn’t fill (stretching the D vertically)

This goes back to Brady and what he can bring to the Table this year.

We see overlapping skill sets if we box them in.

 there are a few that can get deeper and keep the safeties honest. Cook might actually be a threat along with Kincaid , depending on the coverage

[Warcodered]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

Thanks for that post. From the perspective of the scouting report "strengths" and "weaknesses" and the overall comparison of their physical traits, I definitely see where you're coming from.

The one thing I'd caution with that comparison is that Mike Evans was A LOT more productive in college. 

Mike Evans posted 1,105 yards and 5 TDs as a freshman (!), then followed it up with 1,394 yards and 12 TDs as a sophomore.

Coleman, meanwhile, posted 50 yards and 1 TD as a freshman, then followed it up with 798 yards and 7 TDs as a sophomore. He never topped 798 yards in a college season.

So a big part of the thing that makes me nervous about Coleman is that he never really proved he could be truly dominant at the college level. It's hard, therefore, for me to predict that he'll be able to do it in the pros, where the level of competition goes up significantly. Evans, meanwhile, dominated his entire college career. Obviously, the job of NFL scouts is to find projectable traits and to look into the future a bit. Also, clearly, Beane and his crew feel confident in their ability to take physically gifted guys with limited college production and coach them up. Josh Allen says hi.

Still...given Coleman's relative lack of college production, it's hard for me to bite particularly hard on that comparison.

I mean he did have Kilff Kingsberry as his OC and the Air Raid offense and two QBs who'd get taken in the 1st round of the draft.

[Shaw66]

3 hours ago, Logic said:

Thanks for that post. From the perspective of the scouting report "strengths" and "weaknesses" and the overall comparison of their physical traits, I definitely see where you're coming from.

The one thing I'd caution with that comparison is that Mike Evans was A LOT more productive in college. 

Mike Evans posted 1,105 yards and 5 TDs as a freshman (!), then followed it up with 1,394 yards and 12 TDs as a sophomore.

Coleman, meanwhile, posted 50 yards and 1 TD as a freshman, then followed it up with 798 yards and 7 TDs as a sophomore. He never topped 798 yards in a college season.

So a big part of the thing that makes me nervous about Coleman is that he never really proved he could be truly dominant at the college level. It's hard, therefore, for me to predict that he'll be able to do it in the pros, where the level of competition goes up significantly. Evans, meanwhile, dominated his entire college career. Obviously, the job of NFL scouts is to find projectable traits and to look into the future a bit. Also, clearly, Beane and his crew feel confident in their ability to take physically gifted guys with limited college production and coach them up. Josh Allen says hi.

Still...given Coleman's relative lack of college production, it's hard for me to bite particularly hard on that comparison.

I hear you, and I don't know what he's going to be like, at all.   However, I'll say two things in response. 

 

First, all I said is when I look at him, what I saw was a guy who looked to me like Evans.  Whether he's Evans, I don't know.  But what I saw is a guy who just makes plays, which is who Evans always has been.  

 

Second, I wouldn't rely too much on the relative productivity of the two in college.  Evans played in a wide-open run and gun offense that was putting up 100 to 200 (!) yards more per game than Michigan State and 150 more than Florida State.   Now, you can argue that the offenses Coleman were one weren't as good because of Coleman, but I'm not buying that. A&M was explosive.  

[Shaw66]

3 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

Percy Harvin ruined me on speedy, veteran WR's, who have potential.  I hope you are right.

I think Samuel is a different guy.   

 

Harvin was extraordinarily talented, almost a generational talent, who many thought would be a devastating weapon.  For a lot of reasons, he didn't turn out to be that.  When the Bills got him, it was an attempt to catch lightning in a bottle.  He'd already struggled on other teams, and when it didn't work, no one was surprised.  We'd all hoped that he could capture his old magic, but we also knew that was unlikely.  

 

Curtis Samuel, who was a big name coming out and who hasn't proven to be as good as many thought he would be, nevertheless has been a consistently productive receiver, reliable and healthy, including his most recent seasons.  Even if all he brings is what he's done in the past few seasons, that's a nice contribution to the offense.   The bet the Bills are making with Samuel isn't a long-shot, maybe-they'll-get-lucky bet.  The Bills are betting that in a balanced offense, with effective run and pass games, with coaching he's succeed with before, and with Josh Allen at QB, Samuel can be 500 yards more than he's been.  It's not a crazy bet on a speedy veteran.  

Edited May 14 by Shaw66

[BADOLBILZ]

22 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

I didn't find the choice perplexing at all.  The 1st read was a TD and it was there.  Blocking didn't hold up.  No denying Diggs was open hot but the play was drawn up to score and the throw was there.  

 

 

  

 

Yeah we know, it mighta' coulda' been a temporary go-ahead TD if everything woulda' went right on the play.   The problem was that wasn't what had been working all game so it's no surprise it didn't work then.  It would have been one of the longest air yards completions of the season to Shakir.  A high degree of difficulty throw they had not completed to him that season.   You shouldn't go with that there......let alone actually TRY to give Mahomes the ball back to play 4 down football with almost 2 minutes left.

 

The Chiefs had been going thru the Bills defense at a sh!t-thru-goose pace all game.   The game was only in reach because of a the Mecole Hardman fumble out of the end zone as the Chiefs were about to pull away earlier that quarter.  The Bills path to escaping the game with a win was to score a TD with as little time left as possible.   Clock control is a strategy that overmatched teams have been using to orchestrate upsets forever.    And make no mistake,  the Bills were incredibly overmatched defensively and on special teams.   And offensively they couldn't execute big play to save their lives that day.   With some luck they had survived on the narrow path of long drives made up of small plays to keep the score close to that point.........but then just got stupid at the 2 minute mark.

Edited May 14 by BADOLBILZ
edited for correctness

[EmotionallyUnstable]

11 hours ago, Mat68 said:

Gregg Cosell and Chris Simms.  Using them because they are the known film watchers out of the media talking heads.  Both said last season teams stopped playing Diggs like a top 10 wr.  They were not double teaming him or worried about him getting deep.  Shakir will be defended differently but is versatile to be moved around and may or may not be the primary read on any given play. 

I respect Simms a lot.

 

That said, the perspective that teams often dictate and double cover receivers is very much overblown from fans and media. In qualifying plays, even the most elite players are seeing a variation of bracket or double coverages on roughly 30% of routes. I can’t find the most recent data, but in the previous few seasons, players like Justin Jefferson (31% in 2022) and Cooper Kupp (37% in 2021) will still see plenty of opportunity. It’s not triple teaming Calvin Johnson in the EZ every play. A lot of it comes down to when that happens, and how the play selection, QB, and surrounding cast can respond. 
 

The Bills went from putting all their eggs in the Diggs basket to having multiple guys they think can win 1v1, and let Allen take advantage of working the personnel and coverages to find his most desirable match up. 
 

I think we’ve seen this transition begin last season with Kincaid, and continue with the acquisitions of Samuel and Coleman. We have no true dominant receiving force, but do have numerous pieces that can be utilized in different facets (from the back field, contested catches, RAC, etc).

 

Right or wrong remains to be seen. Beane and company realized having 1 alpha didn’t get it done, because when he was taken away or didn’t execute, the supporting cast wasn’t good enough to win their match ups either.

 

Regarding the bolded statement, I really don’t see why Shakir would demand any special coverage. Teams don’t want to double cover receivers unless they truly need to. Just because he is assuming a larger role, you of course can estimate he’ll more often see a teams best defensive back. He’ll also see more routes, more targets and more opportunity. As I listed above, it is entirely about match ups. The current state of the pass catchers plays well into the “distribute the ball, honor your progressions and let your players feast” pholosophy. Let’s just hope that the surrounding cast can win enough of those 1v1s

[Shaw66]

15 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

I respect Simms a lot.

 

That said, the perspective that teams often dictate and double cover receivers is very much overblown from fans and media. In qualifying plays, even the most elite players are seeing a variation of bracket or double coverages on roughly 30% of routes. I can’t find the most recent data, but in the previous few seasons, players like Justin Jefferson (31% in 2022) and Cooper Kupp (37% in 2021) will still see plenty of opportunity. It’s not triple teaming Calvin Johnson in the EZ every play. A lot of it comes down to when that happens, and how the play selection, QB, and surrounding cast can respond. 
 

The Bills went from putting all their eggs in the Diggs basket to having multiple guys they think can win 1v1, and let Allen take advantage of working the personnel and coverages to find his most desirable match up. 
 

I think we’ve seen this transition begin last season with Kincaid, and continue with the acquisitions of Samuel and Coleman. We have no true dominant receiving force, but do have numerous pieces that can be utilized in different facets (from the back field, contested catches, RAC, etc).

 

Right or wrong remains to be seen. Beane and company realized having 1 alpha didn’t get it done, because when he was taken away or didn’t execute, the supporting cast wasn’t good enough to win their match ups either.

 

Regarding the bolded statement, I really don’t see why Shakir would demand any special coverage. Teams don’t want to double cover receivers unless they truly need to. Just because he is assuming a larger role, you of course can estimate he’ll more often see a teams best defensive back. He’ll also see more routes, more targets and more opportunity. As I listed above, it is entirely about match ups. The current state of the pass catchers plays well into the “distribute the ball, honor your progressions and let your players feast” philosophy. Let’s just hope that the surrounding cast can win enough of those 1v1s

This is an excellent description of the state of the passing game in the NFL - that the offenses are so potent that pretty much no defense can afford to double cover wideouts consistently.   They're using all kinds of variations and essentially betting that the offense will have trouble finding a weakness.   Yes, the offense that has a special talent, like a Tyreek, has an advantage because he can just kill you if you don't pay attention to him, but there are very few of those guys and even those guys get stopped by smart defense some of the time.  

 

It certainly seems like the Bills have consciously gone against the dominant #1 receiver model.  If they have good play design and play calling, and if Allen executes the offense as it's designed, this group of receivers will be successful.  

[Milanos Milano]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

I hear you, and I don't know what he's going to be like, at all.   However, I'll say two things in response. 

 

First, all I said is when I look at him, what I saw was a guy who looked to me like Evans.  Whether he's Evans, I don't know.  But what I saw is a guy who just makes plays, which is who Evans always has been.  

 

Second, I wouldn't rely too much on the relative productivity of the two in college.  Evans played in a wide-open run and gun offense that was putting up 100 to 200 (!) yards more per game than Michigan State and 150 more than Florida State.   Now, you can argue that the offenses Coleman were one weren't as good because of Coleman, but I'm not buying that. A&M was explosive.  

Especially given that NFL teams over view Travis as a 5th round QB vs Mayfield being a 1st rounder.