Rd 2, Pick 33: WR Keon Coleman, Florida State

[Mat68]

1 minute ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

 

Honestly, the WR debates remind me a lot of the MLB debates from last off season. You both hit the nail on the head, I think, when you say they like what they have for now. There are questions from the outside for sure. But I have to believe from what I've seen them do in the past that they aren't just throwing 💩 at the wall hoping it sticks. There is a plan and I'm sure the plan is based around what Joe Brady believes he can get from this group. I'm really looking forward to seeing how it shakes out. I do think at least one or two of these cast of WRs steps up. 

Kincaid will get close to 120 targets. Cook will get close to 75.  I think they are the actual drivers of the offense.  Much less Wr centric than years past.  People were looking for Edmunds replacement.  Benard didn't fit that mold.  Coleman, Shakir, Samuel 1 for 1 are not Diggs.  In the roles designed, the offense may be more effective without a player being as prolific.  

[Shaw66]

6 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Kincaid will get close to 120 targets. Cook will get close to 75.  I think they are the actual drivers of the offense.  Much less Wr centric than years past.  People were looking for Edmunds replacement.  Benard didn't fit that mold.  Coleman, Shakir, Samuel 1 for 1 are not Diggs.  In the roles designed, the offense may be more effective without a player being as prolific.  

Yes.  In other words, you can be effective, maybe even more effective, without a classic #1.  I've read that somewhere before. ☺️

[MasterStrategist]

Hey @PBF81 circling back on the Keon "all target" discussion.

 

Couple things of note, as I'm listing all targets and timestamps:

1. Categorization: Drop, Catch, Uncatchable

2. Skill level: poor, ok, great, elite (*for uncatchable, reason why and if he had separation)

3. Separation noted

 

Targets

LSU: 13 Targets- 9 Cat, 1 Drop, 3 Uncatchable.  Separation- 7 success of 8. 

 

90% catch rate, 88% separation rate, ADOT 10.0 yards (includes all targets: bubble screens/flat routes, etc).

 

Great vs Poor: 6 to 2, 8 graded Targets 

 

1. Q1 11:15: UC, High/inaccurate.  Clear Sep-10 yd route

2. Q1 9:20: UC, inaccurate/route was a sideline curl pass was inside.  Clear Sep-20 yd route

3. Q1 7:59: C/TD, Great - YAC, Clear Sep-10 yd route

4. Q2 10:40: UC/INT, late pass/bad on JT.  N/a on sep- bubble screen

5. Q2 6:50: C, Great-body control. Clear sep-6 yd route

6. Q2 6:00: C, OK.  Bubble screen-blown up

7. Q2 4:05: D, poor.  Clear sep-scramble drill- 15 yrd route

8. Q2 1:04: C/TD, Great- contested catch.  No sep- 21 yrd

9. Q3 13:01: C, Ok- Yac. Bubble screen

10. Q3 5:52: C, Great route/Great body control.  Clear sep- should have been a TD with better throw, this was a post but QB threw seam- 40 yd route

11. Q3 4:36: C, Poor-Yac. Bubble screen

12. Q4 12:22: C, Ok/Great- YAC.  Flat route

13. Q4 10:22: C/TD, Great - body control/route. Clear Sep-fade, outmuscled DB-8 yr route

 

 

I'll do more games, but 1 down.  Let me know your thoughts.

 

[3rdand12]

6 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I think if anything we see a FA move next year if needed at WR. I don't see them taking a pass catcher with their first overall pick for a third straight year. Especially if Coleman has a season that is comparable to Kincaid's rookie year last season. I think as long as Coleman shows progress they "embrace the growth mindset".

 

Now, if things start slowly and Coleman has little to no impact early or there are injuries..I CAN see Beane spending one of those 2nd rounders on a WR near the trade deadline...but that's another conversation for another day lol.

Don't disagree with you at all

 But they did not pick early or try real hard for a sure fire future 1A

Kind why I think they are keeping the door open.

If Coleman plays all so well by end of season then I will concede. The WR room need will shift and how to get there as well

We can pick this topic up later this season

[BuffaloBillyG]

13 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:

Don't disagree with you at all

 But they did not pick early or try real hard for a sure fire future 1A

Kind why I think they are keeping the door open.

If Coleman plays all so well by end of season then I will concede. The WR room need will shift and how to get there as well

We can pick this topic up later this season

Here's the thing. Who's a "sure fire" number 1A from the draft? I mean, there's Harrison. Rome. Nabars. But those aren't promised to be 1As. Great potential, sure. But we've all seen guys touted as top WRs flop. 

 

And to be fair, they may see Coleman's ceiling along the same lines as the big 3. I mean is it far fetched to think that if he runs a tenth of a second faster he's probably WR 4 or 5 off the board? Who knows. Of course, doors remain open. With Beane they are never closed entirely. He's always going to look for ways to improve. But he's not going to be desperate and I really don't think he's interested in moving draft picks in addition to the large contract for the big names people are hoping for. 

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, MasterStrategist said:

Hey @PBF81 circling back on the Keon "all target" discussion.

 

Couple things of note, as I'm listing all targets and timestamps:

1. Categorization: Drop, Catch, Uncatchable

2. Skill level: poor, ok, great, elite (*for uncatchable, reason why and if he had separation)

3. Separation noted

 

Targets

LSU: 13 Targets- 9 Cat, 1 Drop, 3 Uncatchable.  Separation- 7 success of 8. 

 

90% catch rate, 88% separation rate, ADOT 10.0 yards (includes all targets: bubble screens/flat routes, etc).

 

Great vs Poor: 6 to 2, 8 graded Targets 

 

1. Q1 11:15: UC, High/inaccurate.  Clear Sep-10 yd route

2. Q1 9:20: UC, inaccurate/route was a sideline curl pass was inside.  Clear Sep-20 yd route

3. Q1 7:59: C/TD, Great - YAC, Clear Sep-10 yd route

4. Q2 10:40: UC/INT, late pass/bad on JT.  N/a on sep- bubble screen

5. Q2 6:50: C, Great-body control. Clear sep-6 yd route

6. Q2 6:00: C, OK.  Bubble screen-blown up

7. Q2 4:05: D, poor.  Clear sep-scramble drill- 15 yrd route

8. Q2 1:04: C/TD, Great- contested catch.  No sep- 21 yrd

9. Q3 13:01: C, Ok- Yac. Bubble screen

10. Q3 5:52: C, Great route/Great body control.  Clear sep- should have been a TD with better throw, this was a post but QB threw seam- 40 yd route

11. Q3 4:36: C, Poor-Yac. Bubble screen

12. Q4 12:22: C, Ok/Great- YAC.  Flat route

13. Q4 10:22: C/TD, Great - body control/route. Clear Sep-fade, outmuscled DB-8 yr route

 

 

I'll do more games, but 1 down.  Let me know your thoughts.

 

 

Thanks!  I'm a little confused however, it's not all clear.  

 

For example, what does this mean?  

 

Quote

Great vs Poor: 6 to 2, 8 graded Targets 

 

Also, it just hit me, when I began this, it was never my intention to get into whether or not Coleman can separate, which appears to be the meat-n-potatoes of the contentions of many here to my having pointed that out.  It's clear that we all have different definitions of separation.  Mine is exactly what everyone complained about re: Diggs, whether accurate or not, and is the classic definition of being able to separate from a cover DB/CB on a man on man route.  What it isn't is an ability to find soft spots in coverage, which Beasley was great at.  

 

I'll also defer to just about every draft profile out there including these three from nfl.com, cbssports.com, and pff; 

 

PFF

the lack of agility in his game limits his route tree and ability to separate from defensive backs. Those who love those alpha-type receivers will be big fans, but his inability to consistently separate means he won't be for everyone.

 

A post-draft piece by some Trevor Sikkema on PFF has this in it;  

His evaluation is a test of how much scouts prefer contested-catch receivers to athletic separators.

 

NFL.com, which pencils him in as an average starter eventually, otherwise, from his Weaknesses there;  

Press coverage can blanket his release and catch a ride.

Below-average acceleration getting out of breaks and cuts.

Could struggle finding separation to avoid excessive contested catches.

Needs to play through downfield corners to secure catch space.

 

Then there's this piece on CBSSports which says this;  

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2024-nfl-draft-buyer-beware-on-bo-nix-keon-coleman-and-these-other-top-prospects/

 

And while Coleman doesn't look 4.61 slow on film, he's nowhere near burner territory. As a separator at any level, the Michigan State turned Florida State product struggles. Against man coverage, zone -- didn't matter. Then there's his play in traffic, where he's supposed to thrive at over 6-foot-3 and 213 pounds. In 2023, he came down with the catch on 10 of his 33 contested-catch scenarios. Not ideal. Far from. 

 

Also, if you haven't read it, this piece at PFF is also excellent;  

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2024-nfl-draft-florida-state-keon-coleman-polarizing-wide-receiver-prospect

 

Either way, the only group of people that I know that claim that Coleman separates resides here, contrary to a litany of analysis otherwise.  

 

So let's move on to anything but separation.  For those that want to think he can separate, great.  I'm happy for them.     I see what those draft reviews see, and that's also consistent with the forum's draft expert Gunner. 

 

When I originally posted that video, it was meant as a general analytical tool to challenge, either corroborate or rebut, or both, the draft narratives.  

 

So let's focus on anything but separation.   Contested catches, hands, etc.  

 

I'll touch on all your points and we'll go game-by-game otherwise.  Reasonable?  

 

Otherwise, there are a lot of abbreviations in your summary, I can't make them all out.  

 

 

[MasterStrategist]

9 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Thanks!  I'm a little confused however, it's not all clear.  

 

For example, what does this mean?  

 

 

Also, it just hit me, when I began this, it was never my intention to get into whether or not Coleman can separate, which appears to be the meat-n-potatoes of the contentions of many here to my having pointed that out.  It's clear that we all have different definitions of separation.  Mine is exactly what everyone complained about re: Diggs, whether accurate or not, and is the classic definition of being able to separate from a cover DB/CB on a man on man route.  What it isn't is an ability to find soft spots in coverage, which Beasley was great at.  

 

I'll also defer to just about every draft profile out there including these three from nfl.com, cbssports.com, and pff; 

 

PFF

the lack of agility in his game limits his route tree and ability to separate from defensive backs. Those who love those alpha-type receivers will be big fans, but his inability to consistently separate means he won't be for everyone.

 

A post-draft piece by some Trevor Sikkema on PFF has this in it;  

His evaluation is a test of how much scouts prefer contested-catch receivers to athletic separators.

 

NFL.com, which pencils him in as an average starter eventually, otherwise, from his Weaknesses there;  

Press coverage can blanket his release and catch a ride.

Below-average acceleration getting out of breaks and cuts.

Could struggle finding separation to avoid excessive contested catches.

Needs to play through downfield corners to secure catch space.

 

Then there's this piece on CBSSports which says this;  

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2024-nfl-draft-buyer-beware-on-bo-nix-keon-coleman-and-these-other-top-prospects/

 

And while Coleman doesn't look 4.61 slow on film, he's nowhere near burner territory. As a separator at any level, the Michigan State turned Florida State product struggles. Against man coverage, zone -- didn't matter. Then there's his play in traffic, where he's supposed to thrive at over 6-foot-3 and 213 pounds. In 2023, he came down with the catch on 10 of his 33 contested-catch scenarios. Not ideal. Far from. 

 

Also, if you haven't read it, this piece at PFF is also excellent;  

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2024-nfl-draft-florida-state-keon-coleman-polarizing-wide-receiver-prospect

 

Either way, the only group of people that I know that claim that Coleman separates resides here, contrary to a litany of analysis otherwise.  

 

So let's move on to anything but separation.  For those that want to think he can separate, great.  I'm happy for them.     I see what those draft reviews see, and that's also consistent with the forum's draft expert Gunner. 

 

When I originally posted that video, it was meant as a general analytical tool to challenge, either corroborate or rebut, or both, the draft narratives.  

 

So let's focus on anything but separation.   Contested catches, hands, etc.  

 

I'll touch on all your points and we'll go game-by-game otherwise.  Reasonable?  

 

Otherwise, there are a lot of abbreviations in your summary, I can't make them all out.  

 

 

Sounds good, I'll remove separation from my analysis and follow what you laid out.  I included it, more for my benefit, to help with categorizing contested catches and his overall route running.  But I can hit on contested catches regardless.

 

Abbreviations: 

UC-uncatchable

C-Catch

D-Drop

Sep- separation

JT- Jordan Travis

 

Re: Great vs Poor, 6 to 2.  I was assessing his performance on what I'd consider "gradeable" targets, ie: I won't include uncatchable balls, blown up bubble screens etc.  Instead of this going forward, I'll just indicate 'splash plays', IMO.  

 

I will say that I think it's fun/interesting, and informative, to review the various outlets player reviews.  Personally, I don't watch every snap of a player, usually a cut up.  But I also don't treat anything as "gospel" either.  Just to say, I'll be using my own "eyes" and thoughts as i review, as opposed to using anything else to support my analysis from PFF, Espn, etc.

 

When I first repsonded to you a while ago, I originally was refuting your point about dropped passes/catch rate, and that some were UC (poorly thrown/thrown late and broken up).  And you were using your assessment to make an overall point, as I understood it, that this cut up of film only lowered your opinion of Coleman (which I also refuted).  I think the cut up supports more "optimism", than anything else.

 

So I'll stick to these metrics, as defined above: C, D, UC, 'splash plays', contested catches, (and will mention 'hands'  as needed to support my analysis on specific targets/overall).

 

 

Edited May 24 by MasterStrategist

[Billy Claude]

Here is a data point for folks who want to place most of the blame on Coleman's lack of production on the FSU QBs -- this is the percentage of team passing yards  for Coleman vs. the receivers drafted around him.

 

Worthy  1014 out of 4047 (25.1%)

Pearsall 965 out of 3111 (31.0%)

Legette  1255 out of 3336 (37.1%)

Coleman 658 out of 3373* (19.5%) 

McConkey 478 out of 2749* (17.4%)

Polk  1159 out of 5209 (22.2%)

Mitchell 845 out of 4047 (20.8%)

 

*Games in which the player did not play were removed from team totals. 

 

Note that McConkey, Polk, and Mitchell all had WR or tight ends from their team drafted before them (Bowers, Odunze, and Worthy).  None of them were the #1 targets on their teams.  The other FSU receiver drafted was Johnny Wilson in the 6th round. 

 

It is pretty clear that they drafted Coleman on potential rather than actual college production which is fine, maybe he will hit. That has been Beane's M.O. since he has gotten here.

 

[Mat68]

Analytics vs film.  Does Coleman have elite agility for a wr?  No.  Keep in mind those that are elite are 20-30 pds lighter and 4-5 inches shorter.  The real question does Coleman have elite agility for a wr his size?  Yes, he does.  Proof of this is his run after the catch ability and tools shown as a punt returner.  That ability would lend its self favorably to having potential as a route runner.  Time will tell but potential as a number 1 wr he has it as much if not more than the group drafted before him and after.  Pearsall, Worthy, Leggette, and Mckanky all have their own negatives and hurdles to become top targets for their teams.  

[warrior9]

13 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

Hey @PBF81 circling back on the Keon "all target" discussion.

 

Couple things of note, as I'm listing all targets and timestamps:

1. Categorization: Drop, Catch, Uncatchable

2. Skill level: poor, ok, great, elite (*for uncatchable, reason why and if he had separation)

3. Separation noted

 

Targets

LSU: 13 Targets- 9 Cat, 1 Drop, 3 Uncatchable.  Separation- 7 success of 8. 

 

90% catch rate, 88% separation rate, ADOT 10.0 yards (includes all targets: bubble screens/flat routes, etc).

 

Great vs Poor: 6 to 2, 8 graded Targets 

 

1. Q1 11:15: UC, High/inaccurate.  Clear Sep-10 yd route

2. Q1 9:20: UC, inaccurate/route was a sideline curl pass was inside.  Clear Sep-20 yd route

3. Q1 7:59: C/TD, Great - YAC, Clear Sep-10 yd route

4. Q2 10:40: UC/INT, late pass/bad on JT.  N/a on sep- bubble screen

5. Q2 6:50: C, Great-body control. Clear sep-6 yd route

6. Q2 6:00: C, OK.  Bubble screen-blown up

7. Q2 4:05: D, poor.  Clear sep-scramble drill- 15 yrd route

8. Q2 1:04: C/TD, Great- contested catch.  No sep- 21 yrd

9. Q3 13:01: C, Ok- Yac. Bubble screen

10. Q3 5:52: C, Great route/Great body control.  Clear sep- should have been a TD with better throw, this was a post but QB threw seam- 40 yd route

11. Q3 4:36: C, Poor-Yac. Bubble screen

12. Q4 12:22: C, Ok/Great- YAC.  Flat route

13. Q4 10:22: C/TD, Great - body control/route. Clear Sep-fade, outmuscled DB-8 yr route

 

 

I'll do more games, but 1 down.  Let me know your thoughts.

 

What did his 40 look like in these games? Was he able to get off the line? I read here that big bodied receivers have a harder time getting off LOS vs someone small and fast

Edited May 24 by warrior9

[Chandler#81]

Yeah, S’up with no handshake established with Keon? 🫨 Cold shoulder? Rookie hazing? Dude don’t know HOW to handshake??

Hell, even I have a personal handshake with Josh.

 

Pick it up, Rookie!

 

 

[starrymessenger]

I certainly haven't done the commendable work that others have in breaking down Coleman's college production so all I have by comparison is an impression for all its worth but I see a guy who is fast through his routes, who is big and probably capable of out muscling many nfl DBs, and (this is important) has impressive ball skills. Those are core competencies that have earned some guys golden jackets. If we are talking football I take that and his kind of athleticism over an 11 foot broad jump all day long. No guarantees of course given the enormous step up in competition that all rooks have to negotiate but I think the Bills are right in thinking that he has the makings of a good, possibly very good player at his position. Unlike the Bills I do wonder if he's a true X given the lack of long speed (that's why they signed MVS) but regardless I'm sure Brady has a role for him and the O that he is concocting will not feature a # 1 receiver now anyway that Diggs is gone. Personally I agree with what I expect to be the change in philosophy. 
Almost forgot to mention that Coleman is a hoot. Probably a great locker room guy. That too is important.

Edited May 24 by starrymessenger

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

Sounds good, I'll remove separation from my analysis and follow what you laid out.  I included it, more for my benefit, to help with categorizing contested catches and his overall route running.  But I can hit on contested catches regardless.

 

Abbreviations: 

UC-uncatchable

C-Catch

D-Drop

Sep- separation

JT- Jordan Travis

 

Re: Great vs Poor, 6 to 2.  I was assessing his performance on what I'd consider "gradeable" targets, ie: I won't include uncatchable balls, blown up bubble screens etc.  Instead of this going forward, I'll just indicate 'splash plays', IMO.  

 

Cool, and let's just skip the plays where the ball was way out of the ballpark and he had zero chance of catching it.  I know that the majority here loved to blame Davis for those, but in fairness it's not the receiver's fault.  ... unless it was a blatantly wrong route or cut or something like that.  I don't recall a lot if any of those re: Coleman.  

 

Splash plays are good, but out of the ordinary ones is what we're looking for, not ones that JAG WRs can make under the same circumstances.  

 

 

2 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

I will say that I think it's fun/interesting, and informative, to review the various outlets player reviews.  Personally, I don't watch every snap of a player, usually a cut up.  But I also don't treat anything as "gospel" either.  Just to say, I'll be using my own "eyes" and thoughts as i review, as opposed to using anything else to support my analysis from PFF, Espn, etc.

 

That's what's nice about Youtube, people do the work for you so that all you have to do is review.  Years ago you could write to the school and they'd give you side/EZ views of every player on O or D, for free, all you'd have to do is ask, ... and tell 'em you're doing a draft review for publishing.  LOL  I'm not sure what happens if you simply ask.  But now so much is on YT.  

 

And yes, your own eyes.  That was originally my challenge, for people to watch all his plays and see whether or not it passes the sniff test contrasted with the narrative(s), particularly those narratives here, which always seem to grow once we draft a player.  LOL  

 

 

2 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

When I first repsonded to you a while ago, I originally was refuting your point about dropped passes/catch rate, and that some were UC (poorly thrown/thrown late and broken up).  And you were using your assessment to make an overall point, as I understood it, that this cut up of film only lowered your opinion of Coleman (which I also refuted).  I think the cut up supports more "optimism", than anything else.  

 

It did.  I didn't know much about Coleman before the Draft.  I also didn't know much about any of the WRs.  Sure, I'd perused a few dozen draft profiles, and in the case of any of the half-dozen or so WRs that I thought would be available for us, also looked at their stats (in light of opponents) and game logs, etc.  (i.e. not MHJ, LOL)  

 

Unlike everyone else, I don't claim to be knowledgeable in depth about the top-100 +/- players in the Draft.  LOL  I do the research in much depth after the Draft.  Much easier to do in-depth research on three or four players than the time-involved impossibility of doing it for the top third of the draft.  LOL 

 

But the narrative was about what a beast he was in contested catches despite not being a burner, which IMO is what we needed, and not just a 200 yard/season burner, but one that would be capable, next season if not this one, of putting up 1,000+ yards and 8+ TDs.  Either way, few claim that he's a #1 with that potential, even here.  

 

But as I watched that video, it struck me all the passes in traffic that he dropped or otherwise couldn't catch.  PFF wrote that piece that I posted above with his "contested catch" numbers compared to other WRs that are not noted for "contested catches," and he ranked poorly against them.  So my first question was, why the hype if his metrics are subpar.  That's when I decided to look for myself, at every play, and database it all.  When I have time, I'm going to make a breakdown video of them all in varying groupings.  I'll probably create a Youtube channel to put 'em on since they'll be too big to post directly.  But the cats of contested catches, great catches, bubble-screen/screen plays, etc.  

 

 

2 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

So I'll stick to these metrics, as defined above: C, D, UC, 'splash plays', contested catches, (and will mention 'hands'  as needed to support my analysis on specific targets/overall).

 

Don't even include the uncatchable ones.  In fairness we can dismiss those as being irrelevant.  

 

How about if we focus on Catch, Drop, and Contested?   Essentially, let's in essence look for plays that will work in the NFL against NFL caliber competition, plays that he'll contribute something on.  

 

On a side note, I did count, of his 50 catches, 16, a third, were caught behind the LoS, which is also concerning.  That leaves 34 catches all season, with 11 of 'em having been made against LSU and Syracuse, that were "downfield," leaving precious few on a per-game basis for the other 10 games on average.  2.3/game that is.  

 

My general assessment is that we have a very Gabe Davis type WR without the ability that Davis had to go deep.  Davis too was a good contested catch WR.  He also had a notably better senior season on the opposite end of the scale as Coleman.  Both played 12 games. 

 

Davis had 7 games of 98+ yards, 10 of 68+, 5 of 106+, and 3 of 151+. 

Coleman had 2 games of more than 86, 9 games of 66 or fewer.  

Davis also had nearly twice the yards.  Both were the #1 WRs on their teams.  

 

I suspect, without evidence, that McBeane were trying to replace Davis, whom despite fans not liking the guy, Allen and they seem to have loved.  

 

Two things I'll add, first, his games against LSU, whose Defense was below-average and whose passing Defense was even worse, Syracuse, whose passing Defense was below-average, and to a lesser extent Clemson, which had a good defense, carry his profile.  After that though, it's difficult to find a game that should be considered great or even close.  So essentially we drafted a WR with 9 unimpressive games, and 2 impressive ones and one more leaning impressive.  

 

The second thing, it's always concerning when the personality of a player runs away with the narrative without the on-field production to back it up, in this case as a completely untested rookie.  Last season it was Sherfield in a notably lesser context.  People, understandably to a limited extent, elevate expectations based upon a player's soft traits and characteristics.  

 

So anyway, in the following post I'll run through his LSU passes in detail and we'll go from there.  

 

Thanks again!!  

 

 

Edited May 24 by PBF81

[GunnerBill]

I don't have me game by game breakdowns with me at the moment cos I am on vacation. But on the Coleman point the LSU game was his best game of the year. That said the clear separation he gets on one of his touchdowns (I think it was the first one from memory) is on a route run from the slot into zone coverage where he gets a free release. When those of us who talk about his struggles separating they are not the types of play we are trying to project to the next level, where we presume given their other roster needs, the Bills are more interested in him as an outside receiver.

[Mat68]

52 minutes ago, starrymessenger said:

I certainly haven't done the commendable work that others have in breaking down Coleman's college production so all I have by comparison is an impression for all its worth but I see a guy who is fast through his routes, who is big and probably capable of out muscling many nfl DBs, and (this is important) has impressive ball skills. Those are core competencies that have earned some guys golden jackets. If we are talking football I take that and his kind of athleticism over an 11 foot broad jump all day long. No guarantees of course given the enormous step up in competition that all rooks have to negotiate but I think the Bills are right in thinking that he has the makings of a good, possibly very good player at his position. Unlike the Bills I do wonder if he's a true X given the lack of long speed (that's why they signed MVS) but regardless I'm sure Brady has a role for him and the O that he is concocting will not feature a # 1 receiver now anyway that Diggs is gone. Personally I agree with what I expect to be the change in philosophy. 
Almost forgot to mention that Coleman is a hoot. Probably a great locker room guy. That too is important.

95% of the passing attack is under 25 yards.  Davis wasnt much faster and made his career down field.  Coleman is a more explosive player than Davis and MVS.  Being productive under 25 yards is what limits both Davis and MVS as players.  Coleman offers more underneath and if he succeeds at it he is a potential #1.  

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

Sounds good, ... 

 

OK, so let's start with LSU then.  LSU's defense was below average ranking 82nd of 133 in PA, and 101st in Pass Efficiency Defense.  

 

Coleman had 11 passes thrown his way, caught 9.  

 

Add in your take after mine.  I annotated the bad passes but  didn't discuss them for the most part.  

 

1 ...  Short left, bad pass 

 

2 ... Looks like he ran a decent route, but a fairly routine one for the NFL.  Bad pass 

 

3 ... This is a great play but again, a fairly routine one by NFL standards and against a zone D on a poor pass D team, and as pointed out before.  The only player that had a shot at tackling him was Zy Alexander, noted for his poor tackling, and who was also wasn't exactly in position to even tackle coleman in a massive size mismatch in that zone as well.  Again, I put this down as a great play, not necessarily as something that Coleman will repeat in the NFL.  Great pass by Travis, whom Coleman claimed was the best QB in the Draft BTW (also concerning, LOL) in a zone, but after Alexander whiffs, it's nothing but green, with an unneeded blocker, to the EZ.  

 

4 ... Terrible play, terrible throw.  Nothing to see here.  Another screen attempt however.  

 

5 ... A 5-yard rolling out.  Routine at best.  

 

6 ... A bumbling and failed bubble-screen attempt on 1st-and-10.  If they use him like that in the NFL, ... LOL  

 

7 ... A quite catchable drop just across the 1st-down line on 1/15.  Unimpressive 

 

8 ... Great contested grab 1-on-1.  Impressive play  

 

9 ... 5 yard bubble-screen for a gain of 5.  Nothing at all impressive there.  

 

10 ... This is one of his few notable man-on-man plays.  No separation here, but a good contested catch downfield on a size mismatch.  

 

11 ... Another failed bubble-screen on 2/3 for 0 gain.   We can credit the crap play-call for it, but that's what he ran quite often.  

 

12 ... Backfield crossing route on a play that typically won't work in the NFL.  Nothing particularly special there otherwise, particularly for a large WR like him.  

 

13 ... Great grab in the corner EZ for the TD.  Perfect throw it should be added.  

 

This was his best game easily and the first of the season, and the one that everyone defers to for purposes of substantiating how good he is.  After that game he posted 41 catches for 536 yards, for an average in the remaining 11 games of 3.7 catches for 48 YPG.  I count three notable plays in this game that were attributable to individual skill.  (8, 10, and 13)  But again, I also discount it slightly given that LSU had a garbage pass D, which ranked 121st of 133 in passing yards allowed and 105th in Opponent Passing Rating allowed.  

 

 

[UmbrellaMan]

14 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Here's the thing. Who's a "sure fire" number 1A from the draft? I mean, there's Harrison. Rome. Nabars. But those aren't promised to be 1As. Great potential, sure. But we've all seen guys touted as top WRs flop. 

 

And to be fair, they may see Coleman's ceiling along the same lines as the big 3. I mean is it far fetched to think that if he runs a tenth of a second faster he's probably WR 4 or 5 off the board? Who knows. Of course, doors remain open. With Beane they are never closed entirely. He's always going to look for ways to improve. But he's not going to be desperate and I really don't think he's interested in moving draft picks in addition to the large contract for the big names people are hoping for. 

Pearsall is going to be a baller. Would have loved to see the Bills grab him instead of trading.

[starrymessenger]

24 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

95% of the passing attack is under 25 yards.  Davis wasnt much faster and made his career down field.  Coleman is a more explosive player than Davis and MVS.  Being productive under 25 yards is what limits both Davis and MVS as players.  Coleman offers more underneath and if he succeeds at it he is a potential #1.  

I don't know that we need a # 1 receiver and I don't see it as a feature of what I think Brady is up to. Neither do I see "explosion",as a physical attribute, as a characteristic of Coleman's game. He may have Megatron's ball skills but he doesn't have the explosion that made Megatron uncoverable off the line nor does he run a 4.35. I just cite that for skill set illustration and comparison purposes. Megatron is maybe the greatest WR ever.  As far as the "separation" issue is concerned, I believe Coleman may well develop as a very good route runner. You can see subtlety in his movements to gain a step on DBs (that's innate football savvy) and with his size and ball skills that's all he should need if his timing with Josh is good. His hands and catch radius together should also help a lot with Allen's under pressure occasional placement issues.
I do however think that if he pans out Coleman will be capable of making big plays, possibly routinely, but I would expect most of those to come in the red zone and perhaps more importantly in those parts of the field where Davis and MVS have as you point out been sub par. That's where he is going to eat imo.

[BuffaloBillyG]

7 minutes ago, UmbrellaMan said:

Pearsall is going to be a baller. Would have loved to see the Bills grab him instead of trading.

Is going to be? That's not certain. Could he be on that offense? Sure. But here's the thing I do know...Pearsall was there when we traded. If Beane saw his value up and above the guys he had high on his board they likely stick and pick. It's all a crap shoot at this point. 

[Nephilim17]

6 minutes ago, starrymessenger said:

Neither do I see "explosion",as a physical attribute, as a characteristic of Coleman's game.

I think "explosion" is not quite the right word but perhaps what @Mat68 was referring to is that Coleman is fluid and efficient when catching the ball and transitioning into moving forward. I've seen Cover 1 breakdowns of this, I believe, and it's similar to Kincaid: as they are preparing to catch, they are pointing their body and almost in the transition of moving forward before or at the time of the catch. Many players don't do this well but Coleman does so he gets more YAC than you would think based on his timed speed.