the perils of not moving up - a cautionary tale

[BillsShredder83]

1 hour ago, Fan in Chicago said:

Excellent post. 

More recently, Cowboys stood still when Beane did a small trade-up and got a guy Jones coveted.

 

I am all for a trade-up to get the guy you really want and the cost of a low draft pick to move up a few slots is forgotten very quickly. Yet some fans don't forget and keep lamenting that "yea but Beane had to use assets to move up". It doesn't matter when you land a Kincaid type player. 

I am very much convinced we will see a trade-up tonight. 

the best party about the small hump up is that it allows BPA and position of need to align, thats good business in my book. they make their big board and stick to it.... if you see a big talent gap dropoff on whos going to be available, you sacrifice to go get him..... BPA, need, and avoiding reaching/overdrafting in your original draft position

[DJB]

2 hours ago, BuffaloBill said:

The draft is a crapshoot.  Beane has generally made good draft decisions. As long as he does not mortgage the future I am good with your concept.  Move a few spots maybe but don’t repeat Sammy Watkins fiasco. The are no “sure things” in the draft.

If Sammy Watkins had turned out nobody would be saying this

 

Sometimes you need to shoot your load and there are many tales of it working out or not working out for both sides 

[Albany,n.y.]

2 hours ago, billsfan714 said:

How did Sammy Watkins work out? Or JP Losman.

JP Losman was the result of Donahoe not having the guts to offer enough to get into the top 10 and draft the QB he really wanted, Ben Roethlisberger.  If Donahoe had offered enough to move up from 13, as Beane did later to move from 12 to 7, Bills history would be drastically different. 

So, by including JP Losman, you are supporting trading up.  NOT trading up earlier in the draft was the problem, not the panic move for Losman when Donahoe lost out on Roethlisberger.   

[Freddie's Dead]

Perils of moving up - Sammy Watkins, TJumptomakeacatch Graham, Cody Ford.  You move up, you better be right.

Edited April 25 by Freddie's Dead

[Albany,n.y.]

2 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

Except at receiver

 

he's absolutely atrocious at evaluating receiver.

 

That's ridiculous.  The only time Beane used a high pick on a WR was trading a #1 for Diggs.  Meanwhile, most of Beane's WR picks have outplayed their draft position.  Just because he signed some #3s & #4s, to back up his top WRs, who didn't do much doesn't mean much when compared with his draft picks or picks used for trade.  

Edited April 25 by Albany,n.y.

[The Wiz]

 

[billsfan714]

44 minutes ago, Albany,n.y. said:

JP Losman was the result of Donahoe not having the guts to offer enough to get into the top 10 and draft the QB he really wanted, Ben Roethlisberger.  If Donahoe had offered enough to move up from 13, as Beane did later to move from 12 to 7, Bills history would be drastically different. 

So, by including JP Losman, you are supporting trading up.  NOT trading up earlier in the draft was the problem, not the panic move for Losman when Donahoe lost out on Roethlisberger.   

Here I thought we traded up for Losman and the number one the next year we traded away in the trade up could of been Aaron Rodgers.   Who I believe is still in the league.  

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 hour ago, BillsShredder83 said:

 

@dave mcbridethis is like trying to argue with a child that mcdonalds isnt the best food on the planet

 

15 yEaRs AgO sOmEtHiNg BaD hApPeN! tRaDe AlWaYs BhAd!

so how do we know hes a bad talent evaluator at WR?

Davis was a 4th rd. not my fav player of all time, but i think most would agree he lived up to a 4th rd pick

Khalil Shakir in the 5th, that looks pretty good

Kincaid looks good, hes a TE, but a pass catcher

Justin Shorter, we dunno anything about, but thats a 5th rd flyer on a big body

 

from a small sample size looks pretty solid, no?

They have done..... nothing.

 

Small sample size that have done nothing. Shakir might be good. He might not be. But as of now the bills have a bottom third wr room, and the fault lies at the feet of one person.

[without a drought]

Sammy Watkins had over 2000 yards and 15 TDs in his 1st two injury filled seasons with the Bills.

[BigDingus]

3 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

John Butler was a good GM and personnel evaluator both in Buffalo and SD. But he had a very bad 2000 draft, highlighted by terrible players in the first and second round. The Bills needed defensive help going into that draft, and the strong word beforehand was that the Bills absolutely loved Ahmad Plummer (CB, Ohio State) and Mike Brown (S, Nebraska). They also liked Deon Grant (S, Tennessee). Plummer went 24th overall and the Bills took Erik Flowers two picks later, at 26. Even though they had drafted Antoine Winfield in the first in 1999, Thomas Smith was gone after the 1999 season and they had no one else, really, beyond Winfield and Kenny Irvin (Punt Catcher Chris Watson was their third CB). In the second, they were desperate for a safety but stayed put and drafted a fifth round-caliber player at the 58th slot (because he's all who was left), Travares Tillman (S, Georgia Tech). They watched Mike Brown go at #39 overall and Grant at #57 overall, just before they picked Tillman (a desperation move, and Butler more or less admitted as much afterward).

 

Plummer had four very good seasons for SF but washed out after that because of injury, which was just bad luck. He was on a very good career trajectory and at least gave SF four good years, starting at CB right off the bat. Mike Brown played 10 seasons and was a two-time all pro for Chicago (although he had a bunch of injuries in his latter years). When healthy, he was elite. Deon Grant, despite missing his rookie season with an ACL tear, played for 11 more after that and started in over 160 games with 30 total INTs. The topper? His final game was the February 2012 SB vs NE, in which he started and had six tackles for a Giants defense that held an elite offense to only 17 points. Nice way to go out.

 

If the Bills had sold some assets (either 2000 or 2001 draft capital) to move up 23 and 56 (Minnesota had both 55 and 56 that year, so was presumably open to a slight trade-down to 58), that draft would have looked a whole lot different in retrospect.  Maybe jumping ahead of Chicago for Mike Brown was undoable, but their later picks suggest to me that the capital would have been well spent on moving up (Corey Moore, Avion Black, Sammy Morris, Leif Larson, Drew Haddad, and Dashon Polk were the remaining picks). The thing is, Butler really did believe in those players they missed out on. Maybe Butler wasn't as aggressive as he should have been given that he was on his way out, but I doubt that -- he still wanted to field a winning team in 2000 (and to be fair, that team started out very well before injuries hit). In any event, the front office had the right instincts for the players they really wanted early on. 

 

I think you can see where I'm going with this. Beane's MO is to not risk missing on his guy (assuming the player is within a reasonable distance) and this is the reason why. I'm not saying he HAS to move up at all; just saying that there is a potentially steep price one pays by sitting still and "letting the draft come to you." This is assuming, of course, that the player you want is someone you truly believe in, but that should be a given in any trade-up.

 

Anyway, food for thought.

 

But then you'd have to look at who else they could've drafted in that spot (instead of purely based on position) and factor in the picks they hypothetically trade away (and who was available at those spots in the following draft).

 

In other words, was there anyone else they could've selected if they took BPA, and what about the 2001 draft & who was available for the picks they could've traded away for the 2001 draft?

[cwater10]

3 hours ago, transient said:

Wrex Ryan may have never walked through the door in 2015, so Russ Brandon would never have had the chance to ply him with wine so that he wouldn't leave the buiding. In that case, Doug Whaley may not have been a dead man walking in 2017, and Brandon Beane may not have been there to select Josh Allen in 2018.

Yes, Josh... Who they acquired by trading up multiple times.   

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, Albany,n.y. said:

JP Losman was the result of Donahoe not having the guts to offer enough to get into the top 10 and draft the QB he really wanted, Ben Roethlisberger.  If Donahoe had offered enough to move up from 13, as Beane did later to move from 12 to 7, Bills history would be drastically different. 

So, by including JP Losman, you are supporting trading up.  NOT trading up earlier in the draft was the problem, not the panic move for Losman when Donahoe lost out on Roethlisberger.   

100 percent. This is a great post because I remember that and I know the Bills loved Roethlisberger.

31 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

They have done..... nothing.

 

Small sample size that have done nothing. Shakir might be good. He might not be. But as of now the bills have a bottom third wr room, and the fault lies at the feet of one person.

Shakir, I think we can all agree, is now good. He was the best receiver on the field in the Bills-KC game for both teams.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

3 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

100 percent. This is a great post because I remember that and I know the Bills loved Roethlisberger.

Shakir, I think we can all agree, is now good. He was the best receiver on the field in the Bills-KC game for both teams.

When he gives us a full season of greatness I'll believe it. 

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

When he gives us a full season of greatness I'll believe it. 

Fair. But the trajectory looks very promising. Regardless, I hope you agree that he was clearly the best receiver on the field in the KC playoff game. If Chris Jones doesn’t bull Dion into Josh, he gets the potentially game winning TD on a great route.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, dave mcbride said:

Fair. But the trajectory looks very promising. Regardless, I hope you agree that he was clearly the best receiver on the field in the KC playoff game. If Chris Jones doesn’t bull Dion into Josh, he gets the potentially game winning TD on a great route.

Oh he was good in that game.

[st pete gogolak]

4 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

John Butler was a good GM and personnel evaluator both in Buffalo and SD. But he had a very bad 2000 draft, highlighted by terrible players in the first and second round. The Bills needed defensive help going into that draft, and the strong word beforehand was that the Bills absolutely loved Ahmad Plummer (CB, Ohio State) and Mike Brown (S, Nebraska). They also liked Deon Grant (S, Tennessee). Plummer went 24th overall and the Bills took Erik Flowers two picks later, at 26. Even though they had drafted Antoine Winfield in the first in 1999, Thomas Smith was gone after the 1999 season and they had no one else, really, beyond Winfield and Kenny Irvin (Punt Catcher Chris Watson was their third CB). In the second, they were desperate for a safety but stayed put and drafted a fifth round-caliber player at the 58th slot (because he's all who was left), Travares Tillman (S, Georgia Tech). They watched Mike Brown go at #39 overall and Grant at #57 overall, just before they picked Tillman (a desperation move, and Butler more or less admitted as much afterward).

 

Plummer had four very good seasons for SF but washed out after that because of injury, which was just bad luck. He was on a very good career trajectory and at least gave SF four good years, starting at CB right off the bat. Mike Brown played 10 seasons and was a two-time all pro for Chicago (although he had a bunch of injuries in his latter years). When healthy, he was elite. Deon Grant, despite missing his rookie season with an ACL tear, played for 11 more after that and started in over 160 games with 30 total INTs. The topper? His final game was the February 2012 SB vs NE, in which he started and had six tackles for a Giants defense that held an elite offense to only 17 points. Nice way to go out.

 

If the Bills had sold some assets (either 2000 or 2001 draft capital) to move up 23 and 56 (Minnesota had both 55 and 56 that year, so was presumably open to a slight trade-down to 58), that draft would have looked a whole lot different in retrospect.  Maybe jumping ahead of Chicago for Mike Brown was undoable, but their later picks suggest to me that the capital would have been well spent on moving up (Corey Moore, Avion Black, Sammy Morris, Leif Larson, Drew Haddad, and Dashon Polk were the remaining picks). The thing is, Butler really did believe in those players they missed out on. Maybe Butler wasn't as aggressive as he should have been given that he was on his way out, but I doubt that -- he still wanted to field a winning team in 2000 (and to be fair, that team started out very well before injuries hit). In any event, the front office had the right instincts for the players they really wanted early on. 

 

I think you can see where I'm going with this. Beane's MO is to not risk missing on his guy (assuming the player is within a reasonable distance) and this is the reason why. I'm not saying he HAS to move up at all; just saying that there is a potentially steep price one pays by sitting still and "letting the draft come to you." This is assuming, of course, that the player you want is someone you truly believe in, but that should be a given in any trade-up.

 

Anyway, food for thought.

Butler had checked out by 2000.  He was basically on his way to SD.  Should have traded back for the Michigan QB in 2000.

[dave mcbride]

8 minutes ago, st pete gogolak said:

Butler had checked out by 2000.  He was basically on his way to SD.  Should have traded back for the Michigan QB in 2000.

That draft was long before and things can change. He had a season to go through and presumably felt that he had to show he still “had it.”

Edited April 26 by dave mcbride

[st pete gogolak]

38 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

That draft was long before and things can change. He had a season to go through and presumably felt that he had to show he still “had it.”

Your analysis by the way was spot on. What an awful draft.