Why the Bills don't "need" a traditional X receiver

[Buffalo_Stampede]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Diggs was statistically in the top seven for all NFL wide receivers beating press last year 

 

Had over an 85% success rate 

 

He certainly did not get abused All season by press man

 

And yes my point was it is a skill set... Bigger guys with the skill set have an easier time of getting off the line of scrimmage but if they don't have that skill set it doesn't matter 

 

While a small guy like Tyler lockett with the skill set abuses press man

 

Of course everybody wants AJ Brown on the outside

 

 

Yes. Releases are a skill. Anyone worried about size is drafting James Hardy. 

[warrior9]

7 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Diggs was statistically in the top seven for all NFL wide receivers beating press last year 

 

Had over an 85% success rate 

 

He certainly did not get abused All season by press man

 

And yes my point was it is a skill set... Bigger guys with the skill set have an easier time of getting off the line of scrimmage but if they don't have that skill set it doesn't matter 

 

While a small guy like Tyler lockett with the skill set abuses press man

 

Of course everybody wants AJ Brown on the outside

 

 

Where did you see the bolded? 

 

We are agreeing on the italicized.. It is not about size. You have to move in a phone booth

 

Diggs ran 168 routes against Man last year and had 26 catches... thats top 7 in the NFL? 

Edited April 25 by warrior9

[Buffalo716]

4 minutes ago, warrior9 said:

Where did you see the bolded? 

 

We are agreeing on the italicized.. It is not about size. You have to move in a phone booth

There are a lot of advanced statistical sites 

 

PFF did wide receiver success rate off of pressman coverage... Quarterback rating to... Average depth of release... Average depth of route 

 

And diggs was top 7 2024... Actually finished 4th 

 

Had over 80 of his hundred catches on press man... With a 90 grade

 

Now obviously grades are flexible... But you either beat man coverage or you can't separate... And by the advanced numbers he was still abusing it

 

He struggled actually catching the ball sometimes

Edited April 25 by Buffalo716

[warrior9]

1 minute ago, Buffalo716 said:

There are a lot of advanced statistical sites 

 

PFF did wide receiver success rate off of pressman coverage... Quarterback rating to... Average depth of release... Average depth of route 

 

And diggs was top 7 2024

168 routes and 26 catches does not seem the best to me.......... 

[GASabresIUFan]

Combine Numbers

Diggs - 6' 195, 4.46 40, 1.53 10 yard split, 35" vertical - Athleticism score 69

Davis - 6'2" 216, 4.54 40, 1.56 10 yard split, 35" vertical - Athleticism score 63

 

Shakir - 6' 196, 4.43 40, 1.49 10 yard split, 34.5" vertical - Athleticism score 78

Samuel - 5'11" 196, 4.31 40, 1.49 10 yard split, 37" vertical - Athleticism score 89

Hollins - 6'4" 221, 4.53 40, 1.59 10 yard split, (no vertical) - Athleticism score 69

Shorter - 6'4 229, 4.55 40, 1.59 10 yard split, 35.5 vertical -Athleticism score 58

 

Thomas - 6'3" 209, 4.33 40, 1.5 10 yard split, 38.5 vertical - Athleticism score 92

Mitchell - 6'2" 205, 4.34 40, 1.52 10 yard split, 39.5 vertical - Athleticism score 91

Worthy - 6'2" 185, 4.21 40, 1.49 10 yard split, 41 vertical - Athleticism score 98

McConkey - 6' 186, 4.39, 1.52 10 yard split, 36 vertical - Athleticism score 90

Walker - 6'1.5". 4.36 40, 1.54 10 yard split, 40.5 vertical - Athleticism score 86

 

The Bottom line is that we have no receiver on the roster anywhere close to the combo of size and athleticism of the guys in this draft.  We have guys with size and guys with speed, but nothing like what we are going to get early in this draft.

[Buffalo716]

2 minutes ago, warrior9 said:

168 routes and 26 catches does not seem the best to me.......... 

PFF says 87 of his 107 catches were off of press man

 

90 grade .. 4th overall 

Edited April 25 by Buffalo716

[warrior9]

Just now, Buffalo716 said:

PFF says 87 of his 107 catches were off of press man

https://www.pff.com/news/fantasy-football-wr-report-man-zone-coverage-performance-nfl-week-17-2023#BUF

 

This is going in to Week 17 of last year... obv it's for fantasy stuff but they have his routes and catches last year... Please share your link.

3 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

PFF says 87 of his 107 catches were off of press man

Here's more to rebut your claim. 

[Buffalo716]

5 minutes ago, warrior9 said:

https://www.pff.com/news/fantasy-football-wr-report-man-zone-coverage-performance-nfl-week-17-2023#BUF

 

This is going in to Week 17 of last year... obv it's for fantasy stuff but they have his routes and catches last year... Please share your link.

Here's more to rebut your claim. 

Well I just looked back at the article I used was for the 2022 season dated this year for some reason 

 

So you are correct in that part.. I cannot find an entire 2023 data set

 

But diggs was also elite versus press for the majority of his career here... He also went on the injury report for a back injury last season and never look the same 

 

The point stands that beating pressman is a skill set.. you can be 5'11 with the skill set and abuse it or 6 ft 3 with the skill set and abuse it 

 

But if you're just 6 ft 3 220 lb with nothing else.. you're just James Hardie and you're not beating the press

Edited April 25 by Buffalo716

[warrior9]

Just now, Buffalo716 said:

Well I just looked back and the off article I used was for the 2022 season dated this year for some reason 

 

So you are correct in that part 

 

But diggs was also elite versus press for the majority of his career here... He also went on the injury report for a back injury last season and never look the same 

 

The point stands that beating pressman is a skill set.. you can be 5'11 with the skill set and abuse it or 6 ft 3 with the skill set and abuse it 

 

But if you're just 6 ft 3 220 lb with nothing else.. you're just James Hardie and you're not beating the press

Italicized: I am not disputing that. He was great. Until he played the Chiefs, Sneed just OWNED him man... unfortunately. 

 

And I agree. However, we need a bigger body IMO (which is why im SO against Worthy for this team..i don't dislike worthy, i dislike him for this team in it's current state) to win off the line and make contested catches. It's been a lot time since we've had a WR make contested catches regularly (outside of Diggs 2 years ago). 

[Buffalo716]

4 minutes ago, warrior9 said:

Italicized: I am not disputing that. He was great. Until he played the Chiefs, Sneed just OWNED him man... unfortunately. 

 

And I agree. However, we need a bigger body IMO (which is why im SO against Worthy for this team..i don't dislike worthy, i dislike him for this team in it's current state) to win off the line and make contested catches. It's been a lot time since we've had a WR make contested catches regularly (outside of Diggs 2 years ago). 

Don't get me wrong I agree 

 

I want a big physical guy... Who has the skill set to dominate press man

 

If you give me two equal football players.. 100% the same skill set... And one is 5'11 195

 

And one is 6'3 223 ... Give me the big dude all day everyday and twice in Sundays 

 

I want a guy who will come down with a tough catch

1 minute ago, Beck Water said:

 

So got it from PFF basically?

That one was but for some reason it was marked 2023 season but it was from the 2022 season 

 

So the numbers I used were from two seasons ago 

 

I cannot find 2023 numbers... And unless I watch every snap to see how many times he was pressed and how he beat it... I can't give a real assessment other than he's always been good at beating press 

 

So I doubt he just became horrible even if he regressed

Edited April 25 by Buffalo716

[Beck Water]

7 minutes ago, warrior9 said:

Italicized: I am not disputing that. He was great. Until he played the Chiefs, Sneed just OWNED him man... unfortunately. 

 

And I agree. However, we need a bigger body IMO (which is why im SO against Worthy for this team..i don't dislike worthy, i dislike him for this team in it's current state) to win off the line and make contested catches. It's been a lot time since we've had a WR make contested catches regularly (outside of Diggs 2 years ago). 

 

Actually.....I read somewhere (and if you ask me for a link, answer is "I don't got it") the Bills faced one of the highest % of man coverage last season because Diggs for whatever reason was having uncharacteristic problems getting a clean release off press man and beating physical man coverage downfield, as he did in previous years, and that link you shared from PFF illustrates why....absolutely no one else on the team was beating it - not Harty, not Shakir, not Sherfield, not Davis

 

vs 2020 and 2021 where IIRC we had one of the lowest rates of man coverage because our receivers would kill it and Josh would carve it up.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Just now, Beck Water said:

 

Actually.....I read somewhere (and if you ask me for a link, answer is "I don't got it") the Bills faced one of the highest % of man coverage last season because Diggs for whatever reason was having uncharacteristic problems getting a clean release off press man and beating physical man coverage downfield, as he did in previous years, and that link you shared from PFF illustrates why....absolutely no one else on the team was beating it - not Harty, not Shakir, not Sherfield, not Davis

 

vs 2020 and 2021 where IIRC we had one of the lowest rates of man coverage because our receivers would kill it and Josh would carve it up.

I would love to see that data. 

[warrior9]

Just now, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I would love to see that data. 

I shared a link that has his routes ran and catches against man... actually, the whole NFL. 

[Beck Water]

9 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Don't get me wrong I agree 

 

I want a big physical guy... Who has the skill set to dominate press man

 

If you give me two equal football players.. 100% the same skill set... And one is 5'11 195

 

And one is 6'3 223 ... Give me the big dude all day everyday and twice in Sundays 

 

I want a guy who will come down with a tough catch

That one was but for some reason it was marked 2023 season but it was from the 2022 season 

 

So the numbers I used were from two seasons ago 

 

I cannot find 2023 numbers... And unless I watch every snap to see how many times he was pressed and how he beat it... I can't give a real assessment other than he's always been good at beating press 

 

So I doubt he just became horrible even if he regressed

 

Well, we've talked before, you know I acknowledge that when it comes to watching broadcast film I have "slow eyes" and need all-22 and a couple watchings to know what I'm seeing....but to my eyes, we had real problems beating man coverage last season and that includes Diggs, at least in the 2nd half of the season.

 

It wasn't always press, in that JT O'Sullivan QB School youtube vid on the division game vs KC you can see routes where Snead just sat back and waited for Diggs route to bring him to him, basically - he must have felt pretty confident he understood what route concepts were going to be run from different sets and cues.

[warrior9]

11 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Don't get me wrong I agree 

 

I want a big physical guy... Who has the skill set to dominate press man

 

If you give me two equal football players.. 100% the same skill set... And one is 5'11 195

 

And one is 6'3 223 ... Give me the big dude all day everyday and twice in Sundays 

 

I want a guy who will come down with a tough catch

That one was but for some reason it was marked 2023 season but it was from the 2022 season 

 

So the numbers I used were from two seasons ago 

 

I cannot find 2023 numbers... And unless I watch every snap to see how many times he was pressed and how he beat it... I can't give a real assessment other than he's always been good at beating press 

 

So I doubt he just became horrible even if he regressed

YES! This is all I'm saying about small guys and Worthy (especially in the first round).. DUDE give me Coleman over Worthy ALLL fkin day. Id rather have him than the Chiefs have him. 

 

Puka was a late pick, ran slow for 40 but was fastest in the drill where you run in a straight line, turn your head, catch passes(think they call it the gauntlet). Coleman was fastest through that at combine this year. Plays a lot faster than his straight line speed. He can make contest catches, he's a tough SOB. 

2 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Well, we've talked before, you know I acknowledge that when it comes to watching broadcast film I have "slow eyes" and need all-22 and a couple watchings to know what I'm seeing....but to my eyes, we had real problems beating man coverage last season and that includes Diggs, at least in the 2nd half of the season.

 

It wasn't always press, in that JT O'Sullivan QB School youtube vid on the division game vs KC you can see routes where Snead just sat back and waited for Diggs route to bring him to him, basically - he must have felt pretty confident he understood what route concepts were going to be run from different sets and cues.

Unfortunately for the Bills, Snead plays for KC or we'd have 1 or 2 championships. Snead just abuuuuused Diggs man. It was very hard to watch. 

[Beck Water]

8 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I would love to see that data. 

 

I would love to find the source, too, I have a pretty decent memory so I believe I read it - actually it may have been in a Cover1 video - but I've been rummaging around and no can find.  Lots of stuff on which Ds play the most man by down and etc.

I don't subscribe to any of the stat services though, so maybe someone here who does could find it.
 

5 minutes ago, warrior9 said:

Unfortunately for the Bills, Snead plays for KC or we'd have 1 or 2 championships. Snead just abuuuuused Diggs man. It was very hard to watch. 

 

Well, he's on to the Titans now.

Edited April 25 by Beck Water

[warrior9]

2 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I would love to find the source, too, I have a pretty decent memory so I believe I read it but I've been rummaging around and no can find.  Lots of stuff on which Ds play the most man by down and etc.

 

Well, he's on to the Titans now.

Right right, sorry. Played* 

 

Wish that was the case 3 years ago lol

[Beck Water]

33 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

PFF says 87 of his 107 catches were off of press man

 

90 grade .. 4th overall 

 

So clarifying, that was for 2022, not 2023?

[Mikey152]

We are way off topic, now...

 

This started off as a post about why we don't need a traditional X receiver because we will run a lot of 12 personnel, so it will be harder to press our skill players.

 

Now we are talking about how bad we were against man coverage...and the Chiefs get brought up a lot. Go back and watch the Chiefs game...the Chiefs corners were mostly lining up off the ball and being aggressive with the route stem (often beyond 5 yards, but I digress). I only really saw press man when Diggs was playing on the LOS (no Davis and 3 or 4 WR sets).

 

Do we need man beaters? sure. But you don't have to be big to beat man coverage...you have to be athletic. We weren't too small last year, we were too SLLLOOOOWWWW. And the guys that were fast (Im looking at you, Harty) were trash.

 

 

[Buffalo716]

1 minute ago, Beck Water said:

 

So clarifying, that was for 2022, not 2023?

Yes but for some reason it made it look like it was from this past season