Lions extend St. Brown (4 years, 120 mil, 77 gtd)

[Einstein's Dog]

  On 4/24/2024 at 6:03 PM, Beast said:

Better off drafting a wide receiver in the first 3 rounds every season and hope to recycle the group at the end of rookie deals.

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And for the people that want an early double dip this contract shows a downside, if they both hit you have some real financial decisions/problems 4 years later.

[FireChans]

  On 4/24/2024 at 8:01 PM, Einstein's Dog said:

And for the people that want an early double dip this contract shows a downside, if they both hit you have some real financial decisions/problems 4 years later.

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Paying great players what they are worth is not a problem.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

  On 4/24/2024 at 8:01 PM, Einstein's Dog said:

And for the people that want an early double dip this contract shows a downside, if they both hit you have some real financial decisions/problems 4 years later.

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Problem? This contract isn’t a problem. It’s exactly where it should be. 
 

If you’re getting WR1 production then there is no problem. The problems come if the production isn’t there. 

[Einstein's Dog]

  On 4/24/2024 at 8:07 PM, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Problem? This contract isn’t a problem. It’s exactly where it should be. 
 

If you’re getting WR1 production then there is no problem. The problems come if the production isn’t there. 

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Of course it's a problem if you're looking at two good WRs looking for big money at close to the same time.  It is a financial strain, see the Bengals. 

 

Most teams can handle one big WR contract and have one on rookie contract.  And IMO, that is what the Bills should be looking to do.  Trade and get the veteran WR on a reasonable contract and draft a good second tier rookie.  Then in the next year or two get another good rookie, keep them coming.

[Alphadawg7]

  On 4/24/2024 at 7:32 PM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

 

The crazy thing is that he's sort of a Khalil Shakir comp.    6' tall T-Rex armed slot receiver who has transitioned gradually more outside and put up big numbers.    Maybe @Alphadawg7 is selling Khalil way short.      And truth is........guys who compare to St. Brown basically never turn into anything at the NFL level.   His list of physical comps is a bunch of players who never made it.

 

 

 

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The NFL is always evolving, and as I think as it does players and the attributes they are able to succeed with will too.  And while certain attributes may not be ideal, the right player who has that extra something to get there, over come, and reach their potential can still succeed at high levels.  And I do very much think Shakir has that extra something to get the most out of his talent.  

 

Also, I love St. Brown and his story.  I knew he was gonna be a star and was my kind of player when I watched him on Hard Knocks between how he finished hot the season before, how hard he trained and worked out with his dad, and how he knew every WR drafted ahead of him and had that chip on his shoulder.   Which he very much did and helped me win some championships that year in fantasy as I targeted him and got him in most my leagues.  

 

Will Shakir get to his level...I don't know, but I do know that I wouldn't count him out on doing so either.  

[billsfan89]

  On 4/24/2024 at 4:18 PM, Virgil said:

With the way the cap is rising, 30 is the new 20 for receivers as 50 is the new 40 for QBs.  
 

It’s all relative 

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But the cap hasn't risen yet, so overpaying guys because in a few years it won't be an overpay is just silly to me. St. Brown is 24 will be 25 this upcoming season and 26 when this extension comes in. So paying him for what will likely be his prime years (age 26-29) is a good idea but 30 million a year for a WR is a tough going rate especially because St. Brown is not the best WR in the game. What will Justin Jefferson command, I think if St. Brown is getting 30 then Jefferson who is a better player should command at least 35 million or a little over 15% more. 

 

I think the overall idea that this won't be so bad when he is occupying 12.5% of the cap instead of 14% is pretty marginal to me. It makes nailing this draft with a WR up high in round 1 or early round 2 super important, also could justify a run on WR's in round 1 and 2 which makes me concerned that by pick 28 the Bills will not be able to trade down 5-8 spots pick up a 3rd rounder and maybe another pick in 2025 and still have a crack at good top 8-9 WR's like McConkey, Legette and Franklin. 

 

TLDR: Overpaying now because later its going to be OK is a foolish idea in my mind but what do I know? 

[Dr. Who]

  On 4/24/2024 at 8:01 PM, Einstein's Dog said:

And for the people that want an early double dip this contract shows a downside, if they both hit you have some real financial decisions/problems 4 years later.

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I don't think it's much of a problem. The issue really only becomes difficult if they are both elite producers. If that happens, I'm still happy to have that on rookie contracts. If I lose one of them to free agency, I'm likely getting a solid comp pick (though for the Bills, maybe only a fourth). Regardless, the double dip is also motivated by the requirement of a big X and a movement Z. I don't agree with those who think Shakir or Samuel is a replacement for either Diggs or Davis.

 

Anyway, I don't think you can draft worrying about the terrible implications of if you get it right. At minimum, get it right and you have an asset that can be extended, traded, or yields a comp pick down the line. 

[Warriorspikes51]

IMO this slightly increases the chances of us trading way up.  Aiyuk will get 30 mil per and JJ will get 35 mil per 

[boater]

  On 4/24/2024 at 4:11 PM, mannc said:

This is why I think there will be at least six WRs drafted tomorrow …

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Agree. I kinda think this forces Beane to trade up to nab one.

[Einstein's Dog]

  On 4/24/2024 at 9:34 PM, Dr. Who said:

I don't think it's much of a problem. The issue really only becomes difficult if they are both elite producers. If that happens, I'm still happy to have that on rookie contracts. If I lose one of them to free agency, I'm likely getting a solid comp pick (though for the Bills, maybe only a fourth). Regardless, the double dip is also motivated by the requirement of a big X and a movement Z. I don't agree with those who think Shakir or Samuel is a replacement for either Diggs or Davis.

 

Anyway, I don't think you can draft worrying about the terrible implications of if you get it right. At minimum, get it right and you have an asset that can be extended, traded, or yields a comp pick down the line. 

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I agree with you that Shakir or Samuel are not replacements for either Diggs or Davis. 

 

Where I disagree is I think the Diggs replacement should be another good veteran WR - no second tier WR is comparable IMO.  The Davis replacement can be the highly drafted second tier guy.

 

Also getting one veteran and one rookie balances out the aging of the WR room.  Then the Bills draft another WR in a year or two as the veteran is done.

[Dr. Who]

  On 4/24/2024 at 10:33 PM, Einstein's Dog said:

I agree with you that Shakir or Samuel are not replacements for either Diggs or Davis. 

 

Where I disagree is I think the Diggs replacement should be another good veteran WR - no second tier WR is comparable IMO.  The Davis replacement can be the highly drafted second tier guy.

 

Also getting one veteran and one rookie balances out the aging of the WR room.  Then the Bills draft another WR in a year or two as the veteran is done.

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I think that is a genuine option, and I understand your rationale. I'm simply still open to 2 WRs early because of the quality in this draft and also because I have a few favorites that I think could fill out the WR room.

[Einstein's Dog]

  On 4/24/2024 at 10:36 PM, Dr. Who said:

I think that is a genuine option, and I understand your rationale. I'm simply still open to 2 WRs early because of the quality in this draft and also because I have a few favorites that I think could fill out the WR room.

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I do think it would be exciting.

 

I just find it hard to believe that Beane would allow such an on-paper downgrade from last year.  A rebuild year with Josh in his prime?  If I were the GM I wouldn't do it, so I don't think Beane will.

[DCofNC]

  On 4/24/2024 at 7:37 PM, SCBills said:

 

If every team could find a Kelce, this could be replicated.  

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Kelce was as big of a deal as Diggs last year, they STILL won.  It’s Mahomes and Chris Jones they really rely on.

[T master]

It's eventually going to come to teams needing to put some kind of cap on each individual position these contracts are just a tad bit over the top . They will definitely have to do it with the QB position the way that they are going, teams won't be able to afford any other good players .

[hondo in seattle]

When he was in college, I hoped he'd have a good career just because I liked his name.

 

Amon and Ra are both Egyptian gods.  But 'Saint' is a Christian concept.  His parents seem ecumenical... or very confused.  

 

His brothers are named "Osiris" and "Equanimeous."  Fun family.