Oof - the penalty for being good, but not good enough

[transient]

I’m not going to do the work, but I’d be interested in seeing this list relative to QB they played with and staff they were coached by. WR production really depends on the team they have around them. 

[Maynard]

5 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I love Odunze.  If we can't land him, I kinda hope we double up on McConkey and Worthy.  Adding them gives us 3 WR's who run 4.3 and below - 40's.  

McConkey can play the outside and Worthy was predominantly outside.

 

This speed stretches the defenses.  If Allen had the Dolphins speed and with Kincaid in the middle....erection.

I love him too. I’m a UW fan and watched him all season long. I’d be very comfortable moving up for him because I know exactly what we’ll be getting.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, Royale with Cheese said:

 

It is but we pick where we are slotted and the success rate at all positions drop the further you go down.

 

true, true, but you hope to make up for that with more whacks at the mole, yes?
 

[Royale with Cheese]

8 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

I like that. Think that could happen after a trade-down?

 

 

I would think McConkey at 28 and coming back up to get Worthy or vice versa.

[H2o]

1 minute ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

trade down or stay put/bpa it is then

 

I've said it from the beginning that MHJ, Nabers, and Odunze just seem to be a cut above the rest. If the opportunity presents itself, and it's not something absolutely ridiculous compensation wise, then you make that move. 

 

If we stay put and the Chiefs jump for a WR, then watch the same people saying "we shouldn't move up" claim it was the greatest move ever by an organization constantly beating us out. 

[Royale with Cheese]

8 minutes ago, H2o said:

I've said it from the beginning that MHJ, Nabers, and Odunze just seem to be a cut above the rest. If the opportunity presents itself, and it's not something absolutely ridiculous compensation wise, then you make that move. 

 

If we stay put and the Chiefs jump for a WR, then watch the same people saying "we shouldn't move up" claim it was the greatest move ever by an organization constantly beating us out. 

 

The one thing that would upset me is if the Chiefs jump ahead of us to get McConkey or Worthy....like they move up to like 25-27 just to steal one of them from us.

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

Trade down, Beane, if you know what you're doing

 

Half this list would be WR1 in Buffalo if they were still playing lol.

 

Hard to make a worse point

 

Edited April 24 by FireChans

[BigDingus]

Just shows the draft really is a crapshoot, because I'm sure the hits jump up once you get into the 2nd & later rounds.

 

While many of those late 1st round picks were failures, you have teams finding Nacua, Diggs & Hill much later. 

[Dan Darragh]

Last time Bills traded up for a WR? 

 

I believe it was when they took Sammy Watkins.  How do you feel about that?

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

3 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Half this list would be WR1 in Buffalo if they were still playing lol.

 

Hard to make a worse point

 

9 of them. Really.

 

Which 9?

 

Just now, Dan Darragh said:

Last time Bills traded up for a WR? 

 

I believe it was when they took Sammy Watkins.  How do you feel about that?

 

Like hell, actually. It makes me nervous, doubly so given the guys Beane's rolled out there at WR in the past.

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 minute ago, BigDingus said:

Just shows the draft really is a crapshoot, because I'm sure the hits jump up once you get into the 2nd & later rounds.

 

While many of those late 1st round picks were failures, you have teams finding Nacua, Diggs & Hill much later. 

 

This ignores plenty of top 16 misses in some of the same years.  Like yes Agholor isn't an amazing player, but kevin white never even played.  Will fuller had some really bad injury luck - but corey coleman was straight up bad at football.  

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

9 of them. Really.

 

Which 9?

 

 

Like hell, actually. It makes me nervous, doubly so given the guys Beane's rolled out there at WR in the past.

 

B. Cooks

W. Fuller

D. Moore

C. Ridley

M. Brown

C. Lamb

J. Jefferson

B. Aiyuk 

 

EZ lmao

Edited April 24 by FireChans

[Kaenon]

2023 season receiving yards leaders

 

1. Hill - 5th round pick

2. Lamb - 1st

3. St. Brown - 4th

4. Nacua - 5th

5. AJ Brown - 2nd

6. DJ Moore - 1st

7. Aiyuk - 1st

8. Collins - 3rd

9. Evans - 1st

10. Cooper - 1st

11. K. Allen - 3rd

12. Chase - 1st

13. Diggs - 5th

14. Pittman - 2nd

15. D. Adams - 2nd

 

injury notables 

- Jefferson - 1st

- Kupp - 3rd

 

 

17 player sample size

 

1 - 7

2 - 3

3 - 3

4 - 1

5 - 3

6 - 0

7 - 0

udfa - 0

 

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

3 minutes ago, Dan Darragh said:

Last time Bills traded up for a WR? 

 

I believe it was when they took Sammy Watkins.  How do you feel about that?

 

 

Do you mean the first round?  

 

I believe we traded up for Shakir.  Also they traded up for Zay Jones.  

 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

4 minutes ago, FireChans said:

B. Cooks

W. Fuller

D. Moore

C. Ridley

M. Brown

C. Lamb

J. Jefferson

B. Aiyuk 

 

EZ lmao

 

Cooks' past two seasons didn't approach 1000 yards

Fuller? Come on.

 

Stretching hard with some of those. But at least I can agree on the last three, and maybe ridley.

 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

There is so much more meat on that bone for deeper analysis.
 

Plenty of those WRs had really good seasons when they had good QB play or good offensive systems. Even K. Benjamin had 1000 yards his rookie season, but missed the following and was never the same. 
 

A rookie WR is coming in to play with Josh Allen and an offensive system that had been very WR friendly in the past. 

Edited April 24 by TheyCallMeAndy

[FireChans]

7 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

Cooks' past two seasons didn't approach 1000 yards

Fuller? Come on.

 

Stretching hard with some of those. But at least I can agree on the last three, and maybe ridley.

 

I mean, 3-4 years ago was a different story for both, they were both drafted 10 years ago.

 

Jerry Rice wouldn’t start on this team tomorrow. But we would all take Jerry Rice in his prime, right?

 

Maybe Ridley? And DJ Moore? Can’t agree there? Or Hollywood?

 

MAYBE?
 

that’s just absurd. 

8 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

There is so much more meat on that bone for deeper analysis.
 

Plenty of those WRs had really good seasons when they had good QB play or good offensive systems. Even K. Benjamin had 1000 yards his rookie season, but missed the following and was never the same. 
 

A rookie WR is coming in to play with Josh Allen and an offensive system that had been very WR friendly in the past. 

Our WR system is not WR friendly. It’s the opposite, it’s notoriously difficult.

[Cray51]

B. Cooks - Good #2

K. Benjamin - Bad

W. Fuller - Bad

N. Agholor - #3/4

B. Perriman - Bad

P. Dorsett - Bad

J. Doctson - Bad

L. Treadwell - Bad

D. Moore - Low Tier #1

C. Ridley - Low Tier #1

M. Brown - Good #2

N. Harry - Bad

C. Lamb* - Mid Tier #1

J. Reagor - Bad

J. Jefferson** - Top #1

B. Aiyuk - Mid Tier #1

K. Toney - Bad

R. Bateman - #3 with Potential

 

So we have:

1 Top Tier #1

4 Mid/Low #1s

2 #2s

2-3 #3s

8 Bad

 

To be fair, in the last few years the results have been better:

Since 2018 Draft:

4 Mid/Low Tier #1s

1 Top End #1

1 Good #2

1 Good #3 with upside

3 Bads

 

So really the tweet is a little misleading.  In the past 5 drafts, teams in our position have found a #1 WR 50% of the time.  With this class being deep, the chance of that hit only goes up.  Is the risk there?  Of course.  But I'm not scared about picking a WR at 28.  If Beane had a guy they want, they need to go after them.

[benderbender]

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

17 minutes ago, Cray51 said:

B. Cooks - Good #2

K. Benjamin - Bad

W. Fuller - Bad

N. Agholor - #3/4

B. Perriman - Bad

P. Dorsett - Bad

J. Doctson - Bad

L. Treadwell - Bad

D. Moore - Low Tier #1

C. Ridley - Low Tier #1

M. Brown - Good #2

N. Harry - Bad

C. Lamb* - Mid Tier #1

J. Reagor - Bad

J. Jefferson** - Top #1

B. Aiyuk - Mid Tier #1

K. Toney - Bad

R. Bateman - #3 with Potential

 

So we have:

1 Top Tier #1

4 Mid/Low #1s

2 #2s

2-3 #3s

8 Bad

 

To be fair, in the last few years the results have been better:

Since 2018 Draft:

4 Mid/Low Tier #1s

1 Top End #1

1 Good #2

1 Good #3 with upside

3 Bads

 

So really the tweet is a little misleading.  In the past 5 drafts, teams in our position have found a #1 WR 50% of the time.  With this class being deep, the chance of that hit only goes up.  Is the risk there?  Of course.  But I'm not scared about picking a WR at 28.  If Beane had a guy they want, they need to go after them.

 

There's a fair number of misses in the top half of the drafts too.  And some of these were just... bad WR classes.  Kevin white in the top 10.  Corey coleman in the top 15.  Devante parker in the top 15.  Corey Davis at 5.  John Ross at 9.  

 

2018 and 2019 didn't even have guys going in the top half of the first.  I don't think its in this data, but neither did 2023.  

2020 Ruggs can be considered a bust.  

2021 was a top heavy group.  I don't think many teams had toney and bateman as 1st round grades.  It was also just... a bad draft in general as it followed the covid season.  

2022 - 5 dudes in the top 16.  So Burks is probably a bust - but he was the 6th one off the board in a pretty solid top 4.