Rumor: Bills trying aggressively to move up for a WR in round one

[Draconator]

1 minute ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Would you be mad if it’s 1130 pm and the Bills trade their 1st for multiple day 2 picks?

It would be typical Beane After Dark

[julian]

1 minute ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Would you be mad if it’s 1130 pm and the Bills trade their 1st for multiple day 2 picks?

Depends who’s on the board at the time, and how many spots we drop from #28

[PetermansRedemption]

3 minutes ago, Roundybout said:

 

FWIW he has us trading to 4 to take Harrison Jr.

[section122]

55 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Too bad the fastest guy in combine history doesn’t translate to the field and play like the fastest player in history.  Too much is being made about his straight line speed in shorts IMHO.  Actual game day speed is made up of more than a forty time.  Meanwhile he only caught 6 of the 23 deep ball targets and only caught 5 of his 21 contested catch targets.  40% of his snaps were in slot, and 21% of his targets were screens.  
 

Worthy is going to get over drafted and most likely be a complimentary piece somewhere than a lead dog.  

 

I like Worthy and do understand the concerns.  However sharing the field with another 1st round and traditional x in AD Mitchell, Worthy was the leading receiver.  Also Ewers is not a great deep ball thrower. 

 

At this point there are so many wrs I see the good and the bad with.  I just hope they draft a wr and don't get cute lol.

 

 

 

 

[BillsShredder83]

18 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I'm barging in here and not even sure about the details you guys have been talking about, but this point about Kelce is something I've been thinking about lately.   Yes, it's true that Kelce is super special, but I think it's important to recognize that he doesn't succeed with physical dominance.   He doesn't have great speed, he isn't a great run after catch guy - he isn't extraordinary at breaking tackles.  His RAC comes from being wide open.   

 

I'm not sure I'd call Kelce a game changer, altho I won't argue that point.  What he is is an excellent scheme fit. 

 

Kelce is an excellent tight end with good hands and brains, playing in great scheme with a QB who can execute the scheme.  The important point for this discussion is brains, scheme, and a QB who executes is what makes a great passing game in the current NFL.  

 

I think, in fact, that receivers are becoming a dime a dozen, just like running backs.   Successful teams don't need a top-five running back, and I think the passing game already has evolved to the point that they don't need a top-five receiver.  I mean, they'll have a guy who is top-five in the stats, but he'll get there by being a scheme fit rather than being a great receiver.   I think that's exactly what we've seen in Kansas City.  And it's what we've seen in LA and Detroit and SF.  

 

The Bills need a wideout, for sure.  But I no longer think it's important to have the stud you might find in the top of the draft.  There are a lot guys who can become part of an excellent passing attack in Buffalo, probably a half-dozen in the draft, and guys who will be available in September.  

so the entire league is wrong, so wrong that theyre inflating the hell outta WR pay like we've never seen before? lol cmon this is crazy talk..... its a passing league

[Andrew Son]

2 minutes ago, section122 said:

 

I like Worthy and do understand the concerns.  However sharing the field with another 1st round and traditional x in AD Mitchell, Worthy was the leading receiver.  Also Ewers is not a great deep ball thrower. 

 

Guess who else isn't

[MiltonWaddams]

1 minute ago, SWATeam said:

Guess who else isn't

Jared Goff? I dunno. Who?

[Einstein's Dog]

40 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Yup, I agree that is one of the more interesting ones in a while. I think that's the because the Bills are at a true inflection point, moving from phase one of the Josh Allen Bills to phase two of the Josh Allen Bills (and I think there will be three phases in the end). All elite franchise QBs who stick around get basically an entirely new team every 6-7 years. Just look at Brady/Pats, Roethlisberger/Steelers, Rogers/Packers, etc. Mahomes still has Kelce but not for much longer, and even there it's basically an entirely new group outside of Kelce. Anyway, the Bills have to nail this draft AND the post-June 1 FA landscape. I have a sneaking suspicion based on no evidence that they have a deal in place with Justin Simmons, who bizarrely hasn't been signed yet. Something is up with that. He's a really good player - second team all pro four out of the past five years! Maybe the fact that he's 30 worries teams, but he's too good to be sitting there.

For me, part of the suspense is to see if this is going to be an inflection point kind of phase.   I haven't truly bought into Beane's low expectation schtick.  The Bills could still pull out of it and go with a transition.  You can get a different team slowly over the years, not the radical 2 rookie WRs having major roles.

 

To me the transition plan would be get a Diggs replacement, a veteran WR but more reasonably priced than the divas - options such as DHop/C Godwin/DJ Moore.  Then the Davis replacement can be found in the draft- the second tier types Worthy/McConkey/Franklin/Coleman.  Get another vet RB and a safety -either Simmons as you mention above or Hyde.  That's a solid contending team.

[Andrew Son]

Just now, MiltonWaddams said:

Jared Goff? I dunno. Who?

Josh

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

Chris Trappaso (CBS) made a good point on WGR last night.

 

When you're picking 28th and lower every year, a 1st round pick is really a 2nd round pick. In most draft years, there are only about 20-25 first round graded players. 

So if you're a team like the Bills, who is consistently picking late 20's in the first round, trading a 1st round pick and a 2nd round pick is similar to trading 2 second round picks.

 

 

By that leap of logic........the Bills second round pick is then like a 3rd round pick.

 

The reality is that the success rate in general drops in each subsequent round so a first round pick is still worth more than a second round pick, etc..

 

 

[B-Man]

 

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

By that leap of logic........the Bills second round pick is then like a 3rd round pick.

 

The reality is that the success rate in general drops in each subsequent round so a first round pick is still worth more than a second round pick, etc..

 

 

I think that the truth is somewhere in between. As an example of the Bills offer their 2025 1st and their own 2025 2nd teams probably expect picks at like 28 and 60 (or whatever). If the Bills trade their 2025 1st and the Vikings 2025 2nd teams probably expect the picks to be like picks 28 and pick 43. 
 

 

[MiltonWaddams]

12 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

Josh

I knew who you were referring to.

[Shaw66]

3 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

so the entire league is wrong, so wrong that theyre inflating the hell outta WR pay like we've never seen before? lol cmon this is crazy talk..... its a passing league

No, that's now what I'm saying, although I am in part.   Teams paid big dollars for running backs for several years after it started becoming apparent that the best running backs just weren't worth it.  It took teams a while to catch on.   I think you'll start to see that happen to receivers.   We all were startled when the Chiefs were willing to unload Hill instead of pay him; I think the Chiefs were ahead of the curve. 

 

Everyone seems to think this is a deep receiver class.   If that's true, and if I'm right, guys drafted in the second and third round will make splashes around the league this season and next.    If that happens, would you rather that Beane (1) traded back and picked up a good receiver and a second pick or (2) traded up for a guy who was only marginally better, giving up draft capital along the way?   I would trade back.  And what will that mean?  It will mean that you don't have to spend big, either in dollars or draft capital, to get a receiver who gets the job done, because if you're running a good offense, there are plenty of guys you can plug into it, and you have a good chance of finding a Deebo (2), a Kupp (3), or a St. Brown (4) outside of round 1.  

 

Now, there's one big caveat, and that is that this thinking is correct (or at least I think it's correct) only until the defenses adjust, as they always do, and the passing games that the best teams run become less effective.   Offense will then have to adjust, as they always do, and maybe that adjustment will change the value, again, of receivers.  Maybe the new defenses will begin to shut down the short to medium range game, and maybe offenses will counter by putting two or three burners on the field all the time and returning to a quick-strike offense.   If that happens, there'll be a real premium on speed.  In the meantime, however, teams seem to be valuing someone other than the classic stud #1 guy.  

 

 

[Sweats]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

No, that's now what I'm saying, although I am in part.   Teams paid big dollars for running backs for several years after it started becoming apparent that the best running backs just weren't worth it.  It took teams a while to catch on.   I think you'll start to see that happen to receivers.   We all were startled when the Chiefs were willing to unload Hill instead of pay him; I think the Chiefs were ahead of the curve. 

 

Everyone seems to think this is a deep receiver class.   If that's true, and if I'm right, guys drafted in the second and third round will make splashes around the league this season and next.    If that happens, would you rather that Beane (1) traded back and picked up a good receiver and a second pick or (2) traded up for a guy who was only marginally better, giving up draft capital along the way?   I would trade back.  And what will that mean?  It will mean that you don't have to spend big, either in dollars or draft capital, to get a receiver who gets the job done, because if you're running a good offense, there are plenty of guys you can plug into it, and you have a good chance of finding a Deebo (2), a Kupp (3), or a St. Brown (4) outside of round 1.  

 

Now, there's one big caveat, and that is that this thinking is correct (or at least I think it's correct) only until the defenses adjust, as they always do, and the passing games that the best teams run become less effective.   Offense will then have to adjust, as they always do, and maybe that adjustment will change the value, again, of receivers.  Maybe the new defenses will begin to shut down the short to medium range game, and maybe offenses will counter by putting two or three burners on the field all the time and returning to a quick-strike offense.   If that happens, there'll be a real premium on speed.  In the meantime, however, teams seem to be valuing someone other than the classic stud #1 guy.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

..........agreed 100%

[skibum]

I just think the Bills have the assets to trade up high enough to get one of the big 3 WR this year.  They are already fielding a paper-thin roster. I say just take BPA, suffer through this 2024-5 rebuild, and get it all back on track next year. 

[Big Turk]

8 minutes ago, skibum said:

I just think the Bills have the assets to trade up high enough to get one of the big 3 WR this year.  They are already fielding a paper-thin roster. I say just take BPA, suffer through this 2024-5 rebuild, and get it all back on track next year. 

 

It's not as paper thin as you might want to believe

[SectionC3]

1 hour ago, SCBills said:

 

Xavier Worthy at 28 and Javon Baker on Day 2 would completely revamp our WR room.  

 

Will we double dip?   Doubt it, but we'd have a YAC monster in the slot with Samuel, inside/outside flex with Shakir, speed outside in Worthy and a big body outside recevier in Baker.

 

Locked up for:

 

2 years Shakir

3 years Samuel

4 years Baker

5 years Worthy

I’m with you on everyone but Baker.  And I’d be fine with Baker - I just see that guy as fungible.  Someone larger, with a mean streak, who can crack down here and there and be a bit of an enforcer on the field while breaking a tackle here and there as well.  Worthy to me is the more important piece.  After that, I don’t care of it’s Baker, Legette, Mitchell, Coleman, whatever.  I want a big piece to slip into the crew you just mentioned. 

[Shaw66]

10 minutes ago, skibum said:

I just think the Bills have the assets to trade up high enough to get one of the big 3 WR this year.  They are already fielding a paper-thin roster. I say just take BPA, suffer through this 2024-5 rebuild, and get it all back on track next year. 

Maybe they do have the assets, but there's no question it will cost a lot.  The question is whether the difference between the top three guys and the six through tenth guys is worth what it will cost.   You might pay $5000 more for the custom interior in your Mercedes, but would you pay $50,000 more?

[Warriorspikes51]

If Odunze is the target and gets to Bears pick at 9, they could just take him.

 

However, they only have 2 picks in the draft after 9.

 

My offer:  28, 60, 128, 160, 163, 2025 1st

 

if they counter, we’ll keep one of this year’s picks and add one next year