Low Positive Posted April 24 Posted April 24 29 minutes ago, warrior9 said: I would consider Kelce the Chiefs #1. Yes, you do. We don’t have Kelsey at TE, yet. Again if we had a dominate #1 or a Kelce… I’d be all for the worthy pick. We don’t have that. No ones doing that bud. But go ahead. 1 1 1 2
Roundybout Posted April 24 Posted April 24 12 minutes ago, 26TrapDraw said: That’s fine and that’s your prerogative but I need him to play for Buffalo. What, does he play football or something? 1
Buffalo03 Posted April 24 Posted April 24 13 hours ago, Dr.Mantis_Toboggan said: Hopefully not too aggressive. Hard to shake the ghosts of Sammy Watkins from the memory banks, but it feels like that same situation. The draft is loaded with WR potential, and Whaley wanted to get the cream of that crop… then Davante Adams goes in the second round. Point is, in a deep class I’d rather fire 2, even 3 bullets trying to find the Davante Adams, Aj Brown, DK Metcalf, or even Justin Jefferson in the late 1st, rather than risk the farm and hope Nabers or whoever is more Jamar Chase than Sammy “Can’t Miss, Generational Talent” Watkins. I don't know if Watkins was ever considered a generational talent. I don't think the situations are the same either. We have the generational QB with no WRs at this point. Last time we had no idea what we had a QB and traded up for a guy that was touted as very good but not generational. MHJ is said to be the best WR to come out in a very very long time. And our need is more dire right now. I'm all for it 2 1
Beck Water Posted April 24 Posted April 24 (edited) 7 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said: if you google “How tall is Xavier Worthy” his height he’s 6’-1” every where else though. So not sure what’s accurate, but during combine the big knock was being over 6 feet tall and weighing 164 pounds. Here is a couple for example https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4683062/xavier-worthy https://texassports.com/sports/football/roster/xavier-worthy/12556 Either way, he’s still a stick figure though as you said. I thought (I could be wrong) that NFL.com used the official data from the combine. They typically lack data from players who didn't participate in drills at the combine, for example, even if data from their college pro days is out there. Of course a typo is possible anywhere, I guess. I'm not paying so much attention to his height and weight, as to his scouting report because Zierlein usually says stuff I nod about if I come back to it in a couple years. I "get it" that there's an argument to be made for BPA, but taken to its extreme obviously you could wind up with a team full of DE and no DT or something. So "need" has to crawl into there somehow. Like many here, my perception of the Bills current best receivers (Kincaid, Samuel, Shakir) is that all of them do their best work with a free release, and none of them are at their best trying to win a release against press man on the boundary. Samuel can do it, but I think I read his most recent years have been ~75% of his snaps from the slot. Shakir can play on the boundary but at best "he has to demonstrate" against press man and his short arms handicap him there. IMO, we really have lacked someone with the tools to win against "sticky" physical coverage even with Diggs on the team the last couple of years and it's cost us in playoffs. It certainly cost us in 2019 when our top receivers were 5'10 John Brown and 5'8" Cole Beasley, and Allen wound up directing critical throws to Duke Williams and Pat DiMarco in the playoffs 'cuz Brown and Beasley were being erased. So when I read stuff like " lacks play strength and release quickness to defeat a quality NFL press" and "lacks the physical tools to catch when contested and needs to prove he can hold up to a more physical brand of football" as well as "needs to improve efficiency and quickness getting off the ball. Lack of hand strength gets him bullied on contested catches......Takes reps off when he’s not expecting the throw to come his way......Fails to adjust his speed to ball placement consistently enough." I have a hard time seeing him as the right match of "need-adjusted BPA" or whatever it is being called now. Of course, as Beane has pointed out, there are different ways to fill needs, so if he falls to us and we've rated him as BPA because they have enthusiasm for his potential, So Be It but I'm going to have uncomfortable CJ Spiller flashbacks if the Bills trade up for the guy. I honestly can't pretend to know enough about college football to have a meaningful personal opinion about who we should draft, but I do have views about where the Bills current roster has shown itself lacking the previous season and likely to lack after new-league-year roster moves. Edited April 24 by Beck Water 1 1
2003Contenders Posted April 24 Posted April 24 (edited) I certainly believe that Beane has been doing his due diligence in terms of calling around in pursuit of an "aggressive" move up the draft board. I suppose the question is: what exactly is "aggressive" -- and just how "aggressive" is Beane willing to be. The biggest problem with all of this is that everything is so fluid -- and it won't be until the draft is well underway that we have any indication of what may happen. Let's just say that Beane is trying to land one of the top 3 WRs and is indeed calling around to see if any of the teams drafting in the top 10 are willing to move down. Picking all the way down at 28, it is highly unlikely that any of the teams in the top, let's say 6, would be willing to make a deal with the Bills -- even if the Bills were willing to part with an exhaustive list of future picks (in addition to 28 and 60 this year). Now, if at least one of those top 3 falls as far as 8, then things could start getting interesting, as parting with 28, 60, 2025 1st rounder, and one of the 2025 2nd rounders could possibly get that done with Atlanta. But that is STILL a lot for the Bills to give up when they have other needs. I just have a hard time seeing Beane be THAT aggressive, which could be why he more or less managed those expectations in last week's conference call when he indicated that he did not see us trading into the top 10. If one of those receivers surprisingly falls out of the top 10, then I can honestly see a serious possibility of an "aggressive" trade happening. The framework is there from the 2017 move that cost the Chiefs their 2018 first rounder and 2017 3rd-round pick to move up from #27 to #10. I would imagine similar compensation would be in play for a move up from 28 to, say 11-13. Of course, the Bills do not have a #3 this year -- so likely the cost would be one of the #2 picks NEXT year (plus the 2025 #1) in order to move up from 28. That is much easier to stomach, provided that the receiver really is an immediate-impact difference-maker. I really do hope that "aggressive" does not mean trading away anything significant to move into the top 20 to land whomever they have ranked as their 4th receiver (BTJ or Worthy or whomever). I could live with a move like they have made in each of the last 2 drafts (parting with, say, a 4th rounder) to move up a few spots to solidify such a pick. But I would not consider that "aggressive". Edited April 24 by 2003Contenders
Kirby Jackson Posted April 24 Posted April 24 30 minutes ago, Beck Water said: I don't know what is meant by "alpha" - that's usually a term used to reflect dominance, and a rookie really better have a more modest approach and, no matter how good he is, recognize the NFL equivalent of "that's nice sonny, but this here's the fleet" I personally hope the Bills draft someone who will be ready to step in play a majority of the snaps as the X receiver, if that's what you mean, because that's clearly where the gap in the Bills WR game is right now. I think I've queried you before regarding whether you're referring to Curtis Samuel as "a gadget guy that is good with the ball in his hands". If so, I continue to think you're seriously mispresenting a receiver who, except for the season he was on IR, has been playing >60% of the snaps and contributing >60 receptions and >600 yds 4 of his last 5 seasons (the 5th season being, IR). I agree he's not a boundary receiver, but he's way more than "a gadget guy", gadget guys don't take that many snaps or produce that much. WR, no. Receiver, yes. I don't know if you've noticed, but "#1 receiver" seems to be a bit like the term "franchise QB" we used to bruit around all the time when we didn't have one. It means different things to different people and folks argue about it without clarifying what it means to them or the chap they're talking with. I guess that I’m bullish on Samuel because I’ve seen so much of him. I saw every snap that he played at Ohio State. I’m a big fan of the player. He is still a converted RB, best with the ball in his hands. He isn’t a great route runner. He isn’t a pure deep guy. He’s a guy that will run some routes, catch screen, flares and get some carries. He’s a rich man’s McKenzie. If people are relying on his threat on the boundary to keep defenses honest, that’s not who he is. 2
OldTimer1960 Posted April 24 Posted April 24 1 hour ago, warrior9 said: You can love a 6'1 170 pound WR. BUT the bolded is ABSOLUTELY and UTTERLY false. That is A HORRIFIC take. Zay Flowers ran a 4.42 and is 4 inches shorter than Worthy and weighs 10 pounds more. HOLLY WOOD BROWN?!?!?!?!?!?! REALLY? Sure Tyreek has been great but so has: Mike Evans, Davante Adams, JJ, CeeDee Lamb, AJ Brown, Aiyuk, Chris Godwin, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Kupp, Keenan Allen, Puka, Deebo, Cooper, and the list goes on. only ONE has ran under a 4.4.... Your little fast guys are FAR out numbered. Be honest, what did you think of Quentin Johnstone coming out of TCU last year? Assume you loved him? And Hill is 20lbs heavier than Worthy and 2 inches shorter.
Beck Water Posted April 24 Posted April 24 3 minutes ago, 2003Contenders said: If one of those receivers surprisingly falls out of the top 10, then I can honestly see a serious possibility of an "aggressive" trade happening. The framework is there from the 2017 move that cost the Chiefs their #27 overall and 3rd-round pick to move up to #10. I would imagine similar compensation would be in play for a move up from 28 to, say 11-13. Of course, the Bills do not have a #3 this year -- so likely the cost would be one of the #2 picks NEXT year (plus the 2025 #1) in order to move up from 28. That is much easier to stomach, provided that the receiver really is an immediate-impact difference-maker. I really do hope that "aggressive" does not mean trading away anything significant to move into the top 20 to land whomever they have ranked as their 4th receiver (BTJ or Worthy or whomever). I could live with a move like they have made in each of the last 2 drafts (parting with, say, a 4th rounder) to move up a few spots to solidify such a pick. But I would not consider that "aggressive". Don't forget this move also cost the Chiefs their 2018 #1. Otherwise good analysis and I agree with you. Imma say if Ben Allbright is reporting it confidently, there's a good chance Beane has been talking to Denver about Pick #12. 1 1
Matt_In_NH Posted April 24 Posted April 24 When I read aggressively love up I am thinking to around 10 which would involve next years first 28 and 60 plus some change in the 4th/5th. Seems crazy with all the wr talent in this years draft.
warrior9 Posted April 24 Posted April 24 2 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said: And Hill is 20lbs heavier than Worthy and 2 inches shorter. EXACTLY.. Tyreek is put together like a brick sh** house. 1
MikePJ76 Posted April 24 Posted April 24 12 minutes ago, Low Positive said: OMG I have never read that thread before. Holy Cow. 5 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said: Honestly I'm about at the point I call the Vikings and offer #28, plus the 2nd we just got (which was theirs), for Jefferson. We know he is a top 2 WR in this league and should be great for some time. Some fans will say that's stupid, because of money or the Vikes will say no. I tell the Vikes that 3 #1 picks moves you up to get your QB of the future easier than 2 #1's do. He will show up and you will recreate the situation with Diggs. Now Jefferson is the savior so jefferson has the defacto upper hand in the locker room. Now when there are close losses or playoff losses you are going to create the same scenario you had with Diggs......Hey its not me....I won a championship with Burrow....etc. etc... Bringing in a young player puts Allen where he should be in the hierarchy of the locker room without question. The team does not need wr saviors with a god complex and the most expensive contract on the team. They need excellent players who are great locker room guys and not pining for being the top paid guy at their position five minutes after they are here. 1
Beck Water Posted April 24 Posted April 24 (edited) 30 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: I guess that I’m bullish on Samuel because I’ve seen so much of him. I saw every snap that he played at Ohio State. I’m a big fan of the player. He is still a converted RB, best with the ball in his hands. He isn’t a great route runner. He isn’t a pure deep guy. He’s a guy that will run some routes, catch screen, flares and get some carries. He’s a rich man’s McKenzie. If people are relying on his threat on the boundary to keep defenses honest, that’s not who he is. I think we agree far more than we disagree - we certainly agree playing the boundary receiver especially against press man is not Samuel's best "jam". In fact if you look at the charts on Nextgen Stats, looks to me like relatively few from the LOS and ? None? on the boundary? From what I've seen though, calling him a "rich man's McKenzie" is either giving McKenzie too much credit or selling Samuel way too short as the player he's been in the NFL, or both. I think he's a far better route runner than McKenzie evolved into his last 2 years with the Bills (and he did evolve), tracks the ball better, and has far better YAC skills. McKenzie was a glorified gadget guy who flubbed his opportunity to show out as a slot; Samuel is (or has become) a legit slot receiver who has (or had, in Carolina) quickness enough to run gadget stuff. But then, I thought Harty might be an upgrade on McKenzie for route running AND gadget plays and how did that work out, just to put my opinions in context, I can and have been off And again, we agree boundary or x receiver is just not Samuel's jam. Edited April 24 by Beck Water 1
JakeFrommStateFarm Posted April 24 Posted April 24 My prediction tomorrow night is Beane will aggressively try to trade up 2 spots at most to get a WR. Just like he did for Elam 1 1
Mat68 Posted April 24 Posted April 24 15 minutes ago, Beck Water said: I thought (I could be wrong) that NFL.com used the official data from the combine. They typically lack data from players who didn't participate in drills at the combine, for example, even if data from their college pro days is out there. Of course a typo is possible anywhere, I guess. I'm not paying so much attention to his height and weight, as to his scouting report because Zierlein usually says stuff I nod about if I come back to it in a couple years. I "get it" that there's an argument to be made for BPA, but taken to its extreme obviously you could wind up with a team full of DE and no DT or something. So "need" has to crawl into there somehow. Like many here, my perception of the Bills current best receivers (Kincaid, Samuel, Shakir) is that all of them do their best work with a free release, and none of them are at their best trying to win a release against press man on the boundary. Samuel can do it, but I think I read his most recent years have been ~75% of his snaps from the slot. Shakir can play on the boundary but at best "he has to demonstrate" against press man and his short arms handicap him there. IMO, we really have lacked someone with the tools to win against "sticky" physical coverage even with Diggs on the team the last couple of years and it's cost us in playoffs. It certainly cost us in 2019 when our top receivers were 5'10 John Brown and 5'8" Cole Beasley, and Allen wound up directing critical throws to Duke Williams and Pat DiMarco in the playoffs 'cuz Brown and Beasley were being erased. So when I read stuff like " lacks play strength and release quickness to defeat a quality NFL press" and "lacks the physical tools to catch when contested and needs to prove he can hold up to a more physical brand of football" as well as "needs to improve efficiency and quickness getting off the ball. Lack of hand strength gets him bullied on contested catches......Takes reps off when he’s not expecting the throw to come his way......Fails to adjust his speed to ball placement consistently enough." I have a hard time seeing him as the right match of "need-adjusted BPA" or whatever it is being called now. Of course, as Beane has pointed out, there are different ways to fill needs, so if he falls to us and we've rated him as BPA because they have enthusiasm for his potential, So Be It but I'm going to have uncomfortable CJ Spiller flashbacks if the Bills trade up for the guy. I honestly can't pretend to know enough about college football to have a meaningful personal opinion about who we should draft, but I do have views about where the Bills current roster has shown itself lacking the previous season and likely to lack after new-league-year roster moves. Beane was a big body guy. Drafted Benjamin and trade for him. Brought in Andre Holmes. Soon realized that was not the best method and went with Jon Brown, Cole Beasley and Diggs. Need a guy that can beat man coverage and stress a defensive deep. The big body red zone threat should be Kincaid. Need a deep threat most. Thomas, Worthy, Franklin and Walker. Wildcard is Burton. I am 100% convinced that is why Beane choose Alabama's pro day over Texas, to get first hand intel on Burton.
sven233 Posted April 24 Posted April 24 All this talk about trading up and going big game hunting is fun, but I am not sure how practical or likely it is. We may want to do it, but from 28, it is easier said than done as we all know. If we are really serious about it, it may take a couple of different trades to accomplish it. We may have to do something like we did in 2018 and get into the 12-16 range first and then get into the top 10 from there. But this is a trade, at least the first part, that would have to be done before the draft. I don't think this is the type of move you can do during the draft. You would probably have to talk to the teams in the top 10 and find out how far they are willing to drop. If you can work out something for 28, wonderful, otherwise you have to see where you would have to get to, and have a deal already in place if you can get into the range they tell you to. It might be complicated to do, but obviously possible because it has been done in the past. That said, is it the right thing to do? I will say, I could see this team falling in love with Odunze. He has great size, can run, is physical, and can separate. He reminds me so much of Moulds and he would be the perfect #1 WR for us, especially in the colder weather games. But what is having this one particular player worth? While I am not necessarily opposed to making the move, it is hard parting with so much capital. I always ask myself what would the best player in the NFL at a certain position be worth. QBs are different, because you have to have one, but what about WR? Justin Jefferson is probably the best out there right now. Contract aside, how much would you be willing to give up for JJ? A first? Two firsts? A first and a second? More? Now, add in the fact that he will be getting more than $30 million a year. How does that change things? To me, that lessens the value and makes parting with more assets to get 5 years of cost controlled production worth a bit more. Regardless on where you settle in at, going up for Odunze, or one of the other big 3, is going to cost you a lot more than what it would for the best WR in the league. It will probably cost 28, a 4rh round pick this year, next year's first and probably at least a 2nd and 3rd next year as well. Who knows.....it may cost both seconds next year. It is just a ton to give up. Now, if you were to work out some things with a couple of current players, that might help ease the pain a little, but any way you slice it, you will be giving up more than you would for the current best WR in the league for a rookie that you have no idea how good he's going to be, but is under a cost controlled contract. For those that want to do it, I completely understand it and can definitely make the argument for it. If it happens, obviously all eyes will be on the cost......and then we will immediately forget about it and celebrate the fact that one of the big 3 are on our team with Josh Allen at QB! Worry about next year, next year...... Whether or not this is actually even being discussed or not, we don't know. It is smokescreen season and I really tend not to believe much of anything out there. Do I think we're at least making the calls to see what it would cost? Yes. But that would be the only responsible thing to do. That is literally Beane's job to turn over every stone and look at every option. But how serious are these conversations? We might never know. Obviously, if it happens, we will know that the conversations were serious, but if it doesn't, I would expect if they do acknowledge the talks, that they would downplay the talks no matter how serious they are.
JohnBonhamRocks Posted April 24 Posted April 24 2 hours ago, Brandon said: Well, that's kind of raises another question. Do the Bills see him as someone that plays his career at 165, or do they think they can get him into the 175-180 range over the next couple of years and still retain elite speed and quickness? I think his play weight is going to be around 175 and he will still have elite speed and quickness
SectionC3 Posted April 24 Posted April 24 4 minutes ago, sven233 said: All this talk about trading up and going big game hunting is fun, but I am not sure how practical or likely it is. We may want to do it, but from 28, it is easier said than done as we all know. If we are really serious about it, it may take a couple of different trades to accomplish it. We may have to do something like we did in 2018 and get into the 12-16 range first and then get into the top 10 from there. But this is a trade, at least the first part, that would have to be done before the draft. I don't think this is the type of move you can do during the draft. You would probably have to talk to the teams in the top 10 and find out how far they are willing to drop. If you can work out something for 28, wonderful, otherwise you have to see where you would have to get to, and have a deal already in place if you can get into the range they tell you to. It might be complicated to do, but obviously possible because it has been done in the past. That said, is it the right thing to do? I will say, I could see this team falling in love with Odunze. He has great size, can run, is physical, and can separate. He reminds me so much of Moulds and he would be the perfect #1 WR for us, especially in the colder weather games. But what is having this one particular player worth? While I am not necessarily opposed to making the move, it is hard parting with so much capital. I always ask myself what would the best player in the NFL at a certain position be worth. QBs are different, because you have to have one, but what about WR? Justin Jefferson is probably the best out there right now. Contract aside, how much would you be willing to give up for JJ? A first? Two firsts? A first and a second? More? Now, add in the fact that he will be getting more than $30 million a year. How does that change things? To me, that lessens the value and makes parting with more assets to get 5 years of cost controlled production worth a bit more. Regardless on where you settle in at, going up for Odunze, or one of the other big 3, is going to cost you a lot more than what it would for the best WR in the league. It will probably cost 28, a 4rh round pick this year, next year's first and probably at least a 2nd and 3rd next year as well. Who knows.....it may cost both seconds next year. It is just a ton to give up. Now, if you were to work out some things with a couple of current players, that might help ease the pain a little, but any way you slice it, you will be giving up more than you would for the current best WR in the league for a rookie that you have no idea how good he's going to be, but is under a cost controlled contract. For those that want to do it, I completely understand it and can definitely make the argument for it. If it happens, obviously all eyes will be on the cost......and then we will immediately forget about it and celebrate the fact that one of the big 3 are on our team with Josh Allen at QB! Worry about next year, next year...... Whether or not this is actually even being discussed or not, we don't know. It is smokescreen season and I really tend not to believe much of anything out there. Do I think we're at least making the calls to see what it would cost? Yes. But that would be the only responsible thing to do. That is literally Beane's job to turn over every stone and look at every option. But how serious are these conversations? We might never know. Obviously, if it happens, we will know that the conversations were serious, but if it doesn't, I would expect if they do acknowledge the talks, that they would downplay the talks no matter how serious they are. See post upthread about my pondering the value of Jefferson. I realize the goal in maintaining salary structure, etc., but it’s possible that at some point there’s more value in trading for the big ticket, established wideout than there is on spending a fortune in draft capital on a likely, but still uncertain, if-come.
Mikey152 Posted April 24 Posted April 24 12 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said: Its worse...hes actually 2 inches taller at 6'1" and 165 pounds. He is literally a stick figure thats not gonna be able to get off the line in bad weather games. In Buffalo, he wouldn't really need to be on the line. I know everyone thinks we need an X (and it wouldn't hurt), but the truth is we have two TEs that will see a lot of snaps together, often eliminating the need for boundary receivers to play on the line or be set when the ball is snapped. Will there be times we need a guy that can get off press? Sure. But I would say it's not as big a need here with Knox/Kincaid. What we really need is a guy that can stretch the field vertically and keep defenses honest.
Slippery Rubber Mats Posted April 24 Posted April 24 1 hour ago, Low Positive said: Quote Pegula is such a **** owner, his teams will never have success. The Bills maintain their laughing stock status. Allen over Rosen, this mistake will be remembered for decades. FO is full of a bunch of arrogant pricks. Absolute gems in that thread 3 1
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