Joe Marino's Bills specific draft board: Horizontal & Vertical

[DCOrange]

2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

He played QB as a Senior

Yes after playing WR every other year. It’s not like Luke McCaffrey where he was actually a QB and transitioned to WR in college. 

[JerseyBills]

I'm so sick of mock drafts, some of these guys have 7 -10+

 

Only people that matter is Brandon Beane and his team 

 

2 days ladies and gents 

[NeverOutNick]

Just now, BeastMaster said:

Sounds like you have bought into the BTJ hype...which is laughable to me

 

Both players have some serious question marks about their game, and the argument could be made that either is a better or worse choice than the other

It’s not hype it’s fact. I have Brian Thomas Jr. as WR 5 and it’s because he’s already a master of his signature move, the deep ball. He also excels in the red zone. He needs to work on his route tree but you can see the consistent separation that you hardly ever see with Legette. I like Legette as a possession WR but he’ll never be a true #1 imo. To be totally honest Legette isn’t even in my top 10 WRs because he can’t create the space early or really anytime in his route without having to use his hands. That’s going to get him a lot of flags in the NFL if he doesn’t clean it up and even if he does clean it up how is he going to create separation? He can’t blow by people in the NFL and he’s not smooth at all getting in and out of breaks. Again he’s a good WR and a heck of a story, he’s just not the guy to take for the bills, especially in the first round

[Turbo44]

9 minutes ago, NeverOutNick said:

It’s not hype it’s fact. I have Brian Thomas Jr. as WR 5 and it’s because he’s already a master of his signature move, the deep ball. He also excels in the red zone. He needs to work on his route tree but you can see the consistent separation that you hardly ever see with Legette. I like Legette as a possession WR but he’ll never be a true #1 imo. To be totally honest Legette isn’t even in my top 10 WRs because he can’t create the space early or really anytime in his route without having to use his hands. That’s going to get him a lot of flags in the NFL if he doesn’t clean it up and even if he does clean it up how is he going to create separation? He can’t blow by people in the NFL and he’s not smooth at all getting in and out of breaks. Again he’s a good WR and a heck of a story, he’s just not the guy to take for the bills, especially in the first round

If Thomas Jr is your #5, who's your #4.  I think Nabers is #1 over Harrison

[RyanC883]

2 hours ago, Logic said:

Just came here to say that Xavier Legette being ranked as a "back half of round 1 player" is not at all controversial, shocking, or worthy of scorn.

Scouts are higher on him than the draft community.

We all become completely certain of things because the draft analysis community tells us these things over and over and over again and we take it as gospel. But year after year after year, they're wrong about a lot of things.

Remember the year Ryan Nassib came out and many had him mocked in the first round? Scores and scores of mock drafts had him as a 1st round or, at worst, 2nd round player. He went in the 4th.

That's just one random example, but there are TONS of them.

So just because the mock draft industry told you that Legette won't go at, say, pick 22, doesn't mean he won't. Just because they say Brian Thomas Jr is absolutely the 4th best WR prospect doesn't mean they're right.

Furthermore, if "only one year of notable production in college" is the reason we're writing Legette off, then lets please also write off Brian Thomas Jr and Adonai Mitchell and the majority of the other good WR prospects, please and thank you. There are a lot of one-year-wonders this year, and not all of them even have the medical justifications that Legette has.

Dude's gonna be a baller. Watch.

 

I get your points, and Legette may be great,  but Mitchell and Thomas have better production over 3 seasons than Leggett does Leggett does over 5. Mitchell also has 3 TDs in the CFB playoffs. 

[MJS]

4 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

He lost me with Xavier Leggette as round 1 and the 4th receiver on the board over Brian Thomas Jr. I've watched a lot of these and nobody has ever been that high on Leggette. It reminds me of when Chris Trepasso had Mason Rudolph as his QB1 and said he would be the next Marino. I think these guys try to be controversial on purpose so if it pans out then they look smart 

He has been saying this for months now. He likes Legette more than Brian Thomas. This is not a draft projection, this is how he graded them. He is higher on Legette than most. He isn't trying to be controversial.

5 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

I get your points, and Legette may be great,  but Mitchell and Thomas have better production over 3 seasons than Leggett does Leggett does over 5. Mitchell also has 3 TDs in the CFB playoffs. 

When you grade players, production is secondary. You are looking at traits and skills. Dawson Knox had ZERO touchdowns in college. Zero. But he was still seen as a 2nd or 3rd round pick because of his traits and skills. You have to try to project all of these guys into the NFL. Some with tremendous production end up flopping in the NFL (Zay Jones, although he picked it up later in his career some).

Edited April 24 by MJS

[Turbo44]

Legette will go to CAR at 33. He’s a nice story but we’re not drafting him at 28. I see:

 

trade up to around 12 for Odunze, or

stay at 28, or small trade up, for McConkey, Worthy or Mitchell. Not sure whom Beane like best, but my guess is Worthy

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

Thanks for this.

I don't view Legette as having the highest bust risk at all.

I think Adonai Mitchell has a far higher risk of busting than Legette.

Legette suffered through injuries, motorcycle accident, etc, all throughout college. When finally healthy, he posted 1200+ yards and 7 TDs in the SEC. He is known to have an exceptional work ethic.

Mitchell's career BEST year saw him post 845 yards and 11 TDs. He doesn't have the injuries to fall back on that Legette had, either. And whereas Legette's work ethic is lauded, the word on Mitchell is that he takes plays off when the ball isn't coming his way.

Give me the guy who was hurt a bunch, but who -- when healthy -- put together an excellent year of production the SEC over the guy who, despite having all-world measurables, never posted even 850 yards receiving in a given season.

I could even argue that I feel Brian Thomas Jr has a higher bust potential than Legette, but there's no need to open that can of worms, too.

At the end of the day, I think it's all personal preference and "Beauty in the eye of the beholder". We've all talked circles around these prospects for three months. Time for the draft to just get here, so that we can see how NFL teams feel about these guys.


 

I agree on Mitchell.  And end of day, we all have our draft crushes this time of year, it’s what makes the draft so interesting.  
 

My 2 top targets outside the big 3 are Thomas and McConkey personally.

[Richard Noggin]

Strongly disagree with Franklin's valuation on these draft boards, especially when adjusted for Bills-specific needs and values. He isn't some top half of the 1st rd WR prospect, but he very well could be a very late 1st rd pick or moreover an early 2nd. 

 

I'm thinking the Bills LOVE Franklin's speed, production, underrated all-around game, and best-in-nation success against press coverage. He's not a height/weight specimen (small hands, too, like McConkey), but he's taller than Diggs and they wouldn't be picking him where that's at such a premium value anyways. What he appears to be is a WR who excels getting downfield but also has short and intermediate juice despite his thin frame. He has excelled on the boundary against press, and he's had success when moved. His analytics are REALLY strong. No clue how he interviews, but I'm sure we'll learn more about that post-draft. 

 

I think the desire to wedge WRs into #1 and #2 boxes prevents many from looking at prospects based on what they DO well and instead has fans looking at them based on what they ARE (traits). Teams don't win superbowls because they have prototypical, tall guys at X, elite all-around guys at Z, and small, shifty guys at Y. That's just not how it has worked, historically, in the NFL. Superbowl-winning teams have guys that can PLAY. 

[Adam727]

4 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

No we aren't... our salary cap situation is at its lowest this offseason and will get significantly better from here on out.

 

Spotrac has the Bills at 5.8mil under the projected cap next year.  That's before accounting for this year's rookies, next year's rookies, with only 38 players on the roster, and without re-signing Spencer Brown and Rasul Douglas if they are part of the Bills' plans going forward.

 

It's better than this year was but unless I'm missing something, next year isn't great either.  2026 currently looks ok.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

Other than he likes Pearsall way more than I do - Joe basically sees the round 1 and 2 receivers the same as me. If you pretend Pearsall doesn't exist his top 8 is the same as mine. 

[LABILLBACKER]

11 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I personally think too many in the mock draft community are too high on Thomas. Good player, certainly. But I've said for a bit...but I'm not going to be shocked if he's not WR4 off the board on Thursday. I think he's lower on team draft boards than many would think 

Let me start by saying I think Leggette would be a worthy candidate to trade up in the 2nd round for. But after watching tape / combine on Thomas & Mitchell,  I have them ranked as late 1st round wrs. Then McConkey followed by Leggette. My top 8 order is.....

Harrison

Odunze

Nabers

Thomas

Mitchell 

McConkey 

Leggette 

Worthy.

[Back2Buff]

All I'm going to say with Xavier Legette is that, watch the tape.  The guy is incredible at NFL type football.  His ability to go up for the ball is NFL top tier.  He goes across the middle and finds the hole easily.  On quick throws, he places his body position in the correct spot to push out the defender.

 

South Carolina used him like Deebo Samuel and it didnt work with Rattlier at QB, he just isn't a good QB.  Legette got nailed because of that, and got up to play every game.  Not many guys are taking those hits he took and playing the rest of the game.

 

His blocking in the run game is elite.  It's incredible to be honest.

 

He had a few drops, but he was force feed the ball all year, of course he is going to drop a few.  They all do.

 

Seriously, just don't watch highlight videos of these guys, go and watch all the targets of the guys.  It's eye opening.

[K D]

13 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

You're using the Senior Bowl as a measuring stick?  He played in the SEC and destroyed his competition at South Carolina in 2023.

 

The one-year-wonder conversation is more nuanced.  There were a lot of circumstances involved with that, including a late shift to the position and a motorcycle accident, among other things.

 

I'm not advocating a trade up.  But I'd be happy with him at 28.

I'll say this. I'd be happier with Leggette at 28 than I would trading up for Brian Thomas who I think is a pretty similar skill set. BTJ is a slightly better athlete but Leggette is thick and can be a returner and a blocker as well so it's really what's your flavor kind of thing. But if the Bills spend a lot to trade up for BTJ I think that's pretty stupid as I think you can trade BACK and still get Leggette at the top of round 2

 

The only thing I can think is that BTJ is younger and maybe Brady has some inside knowledge on him or something. Otherwise I think it's a dumb move. They would be mortgaging the future in hopes that there's more to BTJ than meets the eye and maybe there's not.

[BeastMaster]

12 hours ago, NeverOutNick said:

It’s not hype it’s fact. I have Brian Thomas Jr. as WR 5 and it’s because he’s already a master of his signature move, the deep ball. He also excels in the red zone. He needs to work on his route tree but you can see the consistent separation that you hardly ever see with Legette. I like Legette as a possession WR but he’ll never be a true #1 imo. To be totally honest Legette isn’t even in my top 10 WRs because he can’t create the space early or really anytime in his route without having to use his hands. That’s going to get him a lot of flags in the NFL if he doesn’t clean it up and even if he does clean it up how is he going to create separation? He can’t blow by people in the NFL and he’s not smooth at all getting in and out of breaks. Again he’s a good WR and a heck of a story, he’s just not the guy to take for the bills, especially in the first round

Brian Thomas Jr is not a master of anything in terms of catching the football, but I digress.

 

Legette is an AJ Brown type. He doesn't need to blow by guys because he's physical enough to win matchups.

 

I see the pros and cons to both, but I think your a little bit blinded by Brian Thomas' splash plays, which were in many cases he was wide open

 

 

[NeverOutNick]

14 minutes ago, BeastMaster said:

Brian Thomas Jr is not a master of anything in terms of catching the football, but I digress.

 

Legette is an AJ Brown type. He doesn't need to blow by guys because he's physical enough to win matchups.

 

I see the pros and cons to both, but I think your a little bit blinded by Brian Thomas' splash plays, which were in many cases he was wide open

 

 

I don’t feel like arguing about it. You can have your take and I’ll have mine.
 

IMO Thomas is the best deep threat X in the draft. 
 

Hopefully Legette can become a version of AJ Brown but Brown was already a better route runner coming out and was a second round pick. He’s refined his craft nicely. If we took Legette at the end of round 2 I’d be happy but I sure hope we took a real #1 in the first 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

17 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

He lost me with Xavier Leggette as round 1 and the 4th receiver on the board over Brian Thomas Jr. I've watched a lot of these and nobody has ever been that high on Leggette. It reminds me of when Chris Trepasso had Mason Rudolph as his QB1 and said he would be the next Marino. I think these guys try to be controversial on purpose so if it pans out then they look smart 

He hasn’t been shy about his major, major draft crush on Xavier Leggette. 
 

[blacklabel]

17 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

He lost me with Xavier Leggette as round 1 and the 4th receiver on the board over Brian Thomas Jr. I've watched a lot of these and nobody has ever been that high on Leggette. It reminds me of when Chris Trepasso had Mason Rudolph as his QB1 and said he would be the next Marino. I think these guys try to be controversial on purpose so if it pans out then they look smart 

 

It's all about the engagement these days. They throw a wild hot take out there, not because they believe it but they know it'll prompt people to respond and start talking about it. And for sure some of them probably try to call their shots and rank someone super high when the general consensus has that same player ranked much lower. It is what it is, I guess. 

[MJS]

14 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

I'm so sick of mock drafts, some of these guys have 7 -10+

 

Only people that matter is Brandon Beane and his team 

 

2 days ladies and gents 

This isn't a mock draft.

[Nephilim17]

3 hours ago, Back2Buff said:

His blocking in the run game is elite.  It's incredible to be honest.

 

Don't remember hearing that. Not a lot of young receivers can help in the run game. That's yet another reason to wait at 28 or even trade down a few spots (maybe; not sure if it's worth the risk) for Legette.

I wouldn't be opposed to a small move up for Thomas but keeping our picks and getting Legette is what I'm hoping for.