Gunner's 2024 Draft Quarterback Evaluations

[MJS]

4 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Wowzer, you have the OPPOSITE of grade inflation on all of these guys.

 

I think ALL of the QBs you mentioned go in Rd 1.  I thought you would mention Caleb Williams and his mental stability and prowess to be a leader.  His crying episode with his mom is a serious red flag to me.

QB's always get over drafted, though. I think he is trying remove that aspect in his grades.

[Kornfed]

Cmon Thursday!!!!!! .............. Hell of a piece tho Gunner. .. Thanks 

[HardyBoy]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't push Quarterbacks up the board. I grade them the way I grade other premium positions. 

 

I think they all go round 1 or early round 2. But that doesn't mean they are all worth that.

 

There's a reason that a general manager on a short leash and/or feeling pressure to make immediate impact is the most dangerous thing in sports. 

 

Also curious if we'll see any trades out of the top of the draft. 

[EmotionallyUnstable]

@GunnerBill, care to share your numerical process here? What abilities or standards are you assessing that leads you to these tiered values?

 

Obv the executives in the league use their own versions to grade and value players, but I am curious if you’d share your system. 
 

Additionally, how does this class stack up against your previous evals? For example, who is the closest ranked player (above and below) to each of these talents? 
 

I appreciate the objective scale because it allows you to maintain perspective. We want to draft players based on how they’ll preform vs other nfl talents, not based on how they performed vs other players in their class. 

[NoSaint]

I’ll be totally honest - I’ve spent very little time with a lot of these qbs…. But I don’t think this will be a memorable class 10 years from now. 
 

I wouldn’t be shocked if the top guy of the class lands somewhere in that cousins/dak/herbert range (viable starter, but not top 5 tier player) and I think the rest will be huge disappointments. 
 

I think there are quite a few that lose coaches and GMs jobs and it’ll be interesting to see if some of them slide more than expected or if the feeding frenzy happens 

[JDubya76]

Thanks for the work Gunner

[ToGoGo]

Drake Maye is the only star of this class. 

[HardyBoy]

42 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Gonna push back a little. A little better than average qb (if you don’t have one) is worth ten times more than an elite receiver/DE/CB/LT. It’s just such a far more important position, and it’s not even arguable. Hence you might want to factor that into your grades.

 

You can find a bit better than average qb play in free agency and through trades...Baker Mayfield for example...using a top five pick on a mid first or lower rated qb is bad use of draft value...especially when those players are going to likely bad teams and situations and their flaws will be magnified, which gunner points out in several of his ratings as a concern.

 

If you want to argue trading out of the very top of a weak qb draft to get more picks to help you get up the next chance you have where there are a number of elite qb prospects, assuming you can find people to give you value for the pick without there being an elite qb prospect, sure...reaching for any position, especially qb to get a slightly better than average prospect...and then saying there's no argument... I'm not with you on that one, but you're welcome to your opinion obviously. 

 

The worst thing to have is a mid-tier rookie qb that you don't know if you should re-sign or let walk...look at Tannehil with the Dolphins, shoot, look at Tua now who has had trouble in the cold and wind late in the season. Look at Dak Prescott and his contract...some of those guys are well above slightly above average...I just don't think you ever reach for a player and seeing elite ceiling due to athleticism and coachability isn't reaching, that's factored into the ratings...some people might have a higher risk tolerance than others...EJ Manuel was a bad pick...JP Losman was a very good pick who went to a very bad situation sadly...we've seen examples of two of those situations play out in Buffalo...don't reach for a qb or any player based on need

[PBF81]

7 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Wowzer, you have the OPPOSITE of grade inflation on all of these guys.

 

I think ALL of the QBs you mentioned go in Rd 1.  I thought you would mention Caleb Williams and his mental stability and prowess to be a leader.  His crying episode with his mom is a serious red flag to me.

 

In fairness to Gunner, where they go and his grading are two different things.  We all know that many teams are going to reach for a QB simply because they need one.  That's just the business, that you aren't doing much w/o a QB.  

 

It makes more sense to me to wait until a year that you find one that's more suited to you, but that's not how these teams think.  

 

Anyway, just sayin'.  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Chris Simms is lower on Drake Maye than just about anyone, has him as his 6th ranked QB behind Williams, Daniels, Nix, Penix, and McCarthy (in that order). The concern he's noted is that he thinks Maye is more of a project than the others and will need to rework a lot of his mechanics before seeing the field. He says Maye loses control of too many throws for seemingly no good reason. Curious if you saw any of this in your evaluation.

 

He is definitely a project. I mentioned two things in his mechanics - I think the wind up is going to be cat nip to NFL rushers and I think he drops his arm when feeling pressure. So I don't think Simms is talking nonsense. The reason he is still a first rounder to me is of all six of them the one who has some obvious elite level Quarterback play moments on his film is Maye. When he is good it is "you could be a top 5 QB in the league tomorrow" good. He might a bit Josh Allen like in that it might be year 3 before that is what you get (not comparing to Josh otherwise just in terms of development arc - he is more Herbert than Allen IMO). But if he reaches his ceiling Maye can be elite.

[Mikie2times]

I thought Williams profiled as close to Allen as anybody I have seen so far. I don’t see him being able to get to Josh’s level, but his ability to create outside of the script. His improvisation and playmaking will be rivaled by few. How can he perform within the confines of the play? I question that. He will be a guy that could have success early only to hit a funk once coordinators take away the basic things he wants to do. 

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

@GunnerBill, care to share your numerical process here? What abilities or standards are you assessing that leads you to these tiered values?

 

Obv the executives in the league use their own versions to grade and value players, but I am curious if you’d share your system. 
 

Additionally, how does this class stack up against your previous evals? For example, who is the closest ranked player (above and below) to each of these talents? 
 

I appreciate the objective scale because it allows you to maintain perspective. We want to draft players based on how they’ll preform vs other nfl talents, not based on how they performed vs other players in their class. 

 

Okay so roughly it is:

 

Top 10 grade:  Elite Quarterback prospect able to start in the league and play at a high level almost immediately.  (numerically that is a 7.6 or above to me in my grading structure)

 

Mid 1st round grade: Able to be a solid NFL starter almost immediately, has potential to trend towards a high level QB in time. (numerically a 7.3-7.5)

 

Late 1st: Able to be a solid starter in the NFL immediately and capable of being a two contract starter (a "franchise" Quarterback) even if not looking at that high level ceiling. (numerically a 7.0-7.2)

 

High 2nd: Potential to become a solid two contract starter in the NFL but might need some work to get there. (6.6-6.8)

 

Late 2nd: Project who can't start early but has traits to make an NFL starter. (6.0-6.4)

 

Early 3rd: Can be an game manager. Capable of starting while on a rookie contract. Unlikely to be a guy any team commits to long term. (5.6-5.8)

 

Late 3rd: Bridge Quarterback who could start for multiple teams but never be the guy. (5.0-5.4)

 

4th round: High level backup potential

 

5th round: Potential to be a bounce around backup

 

6th/7th round: Some traits to work with as a developmental prospect. 

 

Again everyone has their own way. My grading is based on learning how others do it and taking from it but it also isn't supposed to be a copy of anyone else's. It is what makes sense to me and how I try and keep myself consistent year to year. Of course you do tweak your thinking as you go. And I think I feel differently about some elements than I did 11 years ago when I started.

 

As for how they stack up...  I don't have a slam dunk in this class. I think it is a class with guys with some talent but as I said at the start.... the more I watched - especially Williams, Maye and Daniels - the more I saw of their warts. If you are one of those top 3 teams with desperate needs at Quarterback I think you gotta take a shot here. But you gotta do so knowing there is considerable risk and you better have a really solid plan for each of them as to how younare going to use them early and try and develop them. With each if they end up in a bad fit system wise it could be a disaster.

15 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

I thought Williams profiled as close to Allen as anybody I have seen so far. I don’t see him being able to get to Josh’s level, but his ability to create outside of the script. His improvisation and playmaking will be rivaled by few. How can he perform within the confines of the play? I question that. He will be a guy that could have success early only to hit a funk once coordinators take away the basic things he wants to do. 

 

Interesting. I saw more Mahomes than Allen. Just in the way he creates. But I agree the question with him is whether he can perform consistently from the pocket - get through his progressions and get the ball out.

[Bill from NYC]

Seriously, great job!!!!!

[SoCal Deek]

All I can say is that I’m REALLY glad we don’t have to worry about drafting a quarterback for a while. Those days were brutal! 

[Buffalo716]

On 4/23/2024 at 3:06 PM, GunnerBill said:

**** Warning Long Post ****

 

It's draft week! So here, finally, are my tape evaluations of the top Quarterbacks in the year's NFL Draft. I have only done the top 6 guys this year. I think I said last year it was too much SEC when watching the film... this year it was a lot of PAC 12! Roll on re-alignment!!

 

A reminder of my process for those who are new before we begin: 

 

1. My process is four step as every year:

- Try to identify the runners and riders at Quarterback the summer before;

- Try and watch each at least twice in live game action on tv by mid season;

- Film review in the early part of the year. For Quarterbacks I set the minimum number of games watched at 5;

 

2. I try and balance the games I watch back in the evaluation phase for each prospect. I want to see them at their best and their worst in so far as is possible and against a range of opposition where possible.  

 

3. My grades for each are against an objective scale…. They are not predictions of where players should go in the draft. I have to grade them not only against this draft and this year but against an objective scale so that in future years you can benchmark other classes - that might be better or worse - against it. 

 

Before we start I should say that four of these guys ended up with a LOWER grade after the film review than my indicative grading based on watching them on TV. Only two went up - Bo Nix (slightly) and Michael Penix (more significantly). I think it is a class with a lot of guys who do some things well, but they all have some really noticeable holes when you get into deep film study too. Here goes....

 

Caleb Williams – USC – Junior

Games watched: Utah, UCLA (2022) Notre Dame, Colorado, California, Oregon, Stanford (all 2023)

 

Pros:

• The first thing that jumps of the film with Williams is his creativity. It is Mahomes like. He sees passing lanes that most Quarterbacks don’t see and is able to manipulate arm angles and flip the ball out when otherwise a play would be dead.
• He isn’t Justin Fields (who he will be replacing) but he has plus mobility. You are going to be able to use his legs, especially early in his NFL career to buy him some time, make some first downs and get into some rhythm.
• Excellent fast release and generates good velocity on the ball especially in the intermediate range.
• Throws core NFL concepts – the slant, the out and the deep post well and with a level of consistency. They are going to be staples of any offense you insert him into as a rookie.
• Was asked to go through progressions and read the field. Often asked to get to his third or fourth read which will help the mental transition to the NFL.
• Carries his team. Especially in 2023 his supporting cast wasn’t great. Yes, it affected his production some, but he was still able to lead them back in numerous games where he was asked to throw 35-40 times.

 

Cons:

• Starts with the size. Being a 6’1 Quarterback in the NFL these days isn’t the total anomaly it was in the past but it limits your ability to do much under centre stuff and Caleb will need to make his living in shotgun.
• He holds the ball too long. The downside of asking him to read the full field is some teams I feel like he is too slow getting through progressions and that is where the sacks come from.
• Holding the ball also contributes to fumbles which in 2023 were a major issue – 16 in 12 starts.
• Too willing too just fling the ball up when off platform and under pressure. It bit him in the Notre Dame game but there were other examples on film where I thought it could have led to interceptions and he got lucky.
• I think his deep ball accuracy is questionable. While I like the velocity he generates in the intermediate range his deep balls seem to die a bit at the end.
• Could sell play action better. I feel like he is very quick to come off the fake. Sometimes that helps him but often it means defenders haven’t fully committed to playing the run and so passing windows aren’t fully open.

 

Conclusion: Caleb Williams is the kind of playmaker first, Quarterback second that we have seen increasingly become the norm in the NFL over the past 7 or 8 years. The natural creativity is going to be attractive to a team like the Bears who still have some issues up front and will benefit from a Quarterback that doesn’t need to be comfortable to thrive but his long-term ceiling will depend on him improving his processing and doing the routine with greater consistency. Mid first round grade.

 

 

Drake Maye – North Carolina – Redshirt Sophomore

Games watched: Clemson, Pittsburgh (2022); Clemson, Miami, Duke, South Carolina (all 2023)

 

Pros:

• Prototypical size and play style and aged 21 there remains room for him to grow and improve.
• Live arm, plenty of pop on it and makes you defend all areas of the field.
• I like that he keeps his eyes downfield even when things get messy in the pocket. He does have issues under pressure, which I will come onto, but he doesn’t look down at the rush he keeps seeking options.
• Good ball placement on back shoulder throws and throws the fade well.
• Love the trajectory he gets on downfield throws, especially the go route. His ball has a lovely arc and drops in the bucket consistently.
• Not going to be a dual threat style weapon but has enough mobility to get on the move outside the pocket and pick up some yards on scramble drills.

 

Cons:

• His arm angle definitely gets impacted by pressure and as a result he has a tendency to get low in those scenarios leading to balls hitting the ground and batted balls.
• Sixteen interceptions in two seasons and the vast majority are down to decision making. Can get reckless at inopportune moments and in game scenarios that don’t call for it.
• That recklessness also leads to him taking too many chances into double and even triple coverage especially to Tez Walker who he has a tendency to lock onto as his primary target. 
• His release is inefficient and elongated. I worry that will give NFL edge rushers a lot of chances to knock the ball out during the wind up.
• The downside of him keeping his eyes downfield so well is that he occasionally walks into sacks in the pocket. His footwork tends to get sloppy when he feels the outside rush and he creates his own problems at times.
• Regressed in 2023. His 2022 film is better and shows more consistency. Got to wonder if that is teams cottoning on to some of his tendencies.

 

Conclusion: Drake Maye is the most conventional early round Quarterback of the group and there are flashes of elite level Quarterback play. He is also one of the youngest in this class with the most room to grow. He makes big boy NFL throws with ease at times but there is a recklessness and a rawness that you are going to have to be able to live with early while he continues to mature. He will need very skilled handling by Head Coach and OC to develop him into what they hope he can become. Behind a bad line and without weapons early it could get really messy. Late first round grade.

 

 

Jayden Daniels – LSU – Senior

Games watched: Alabama, Florida State (2022); Alabama, Florida, Army, Missouri (all 2023)

 

Pros:

• Elite athlete, going to be a genuine dual threat Quarterback at the NFL level. There are going to be opportunities for him as a passer at the next level that are created by defensive coordinators game planning to take his legs away.
• Excellent thrower on the move. When you roll him out create a half field read and also give him the option to keep it he is deadly.
• I love him pre-snap. Sets and adjusts protections, understands what he sees and is mentally as advanced as any Quarterback in the class.
• Throws with anticipation, especially against zone defense. Recognises when his receivers will hit the soft spot in the zone and gets the ball there with an opportunity for yards after the catch.
• Good accuracy in the middle of the field where he gets the ball in front of his receivers without creating lots of opportunities for negative plays.
• Has definitely works on his footwork and it was improved in 2023 even over and above 2022. Much more consistent and much more repeatable and it has led to improved mechanics in the pocket.

 

Cons:

• He is very thin. His frame is wiry both top and bottom half and he looks slight even against college athletes. His ability to hold up to the physicality of the NFL is a legit question.
• His arm is only okay. He has enough to get by but the velocity is average and that affects his ability to challenge tight windows, especially where faced with man coverage looks. 
• Possibly linked to his arm but he has a tendency to leave his deep balls short, making receivers come back to them and giving defensive backs a chance to get back into the play.
• Also potentially linked to the arm limitations but his accuracy dips significantly outside the numbers, even in the short game – shallow outs, dump offs, and throws to the flat.
• Think he can lock onto targets. The interception he threw vs Alabama was created by Dallas Turner reading his eyes and getting his hands into the passing lane and I think he could do more to manipulate defenses with his eyes.
• Needs to speed up the processor at times. When the ball comes out on time he looks a much better Quarterback, especially when projecting to the pro level. When he holds it uncertainty creeps into his game.

 

Conclusion: I know this is hardly an original take but there is a lot of Lamar Jackson about Jayden Daniels. He has the elite dual threat ability and is much more comfortable throwing between the numbers than he is outside them. He doesn’t have Lamar’s arm and that would seem to lower the ceiling but he is more advanced between the ears than Jackson was coming out. Mid second round grade.

 

 

Michael Penix – Washington – Senior

Games watched: Stanford, UCLA (both 2022); Oregon, Michigan, Texas, California, Tulsa (all 2023)

 

Pros:

• The most natural pocket passer in the class, Penix has great feel for where pressure is coming from and is able to move his feet to slide up and to the side and give himself the best window to make a throw.
• He is also the most aggressive passer in the class for me. Nobody is willing to give his wide receivers a chance to go and make a play as much as Michael Penix. He is willing to attack downfield against man and zone.
• When going downfield against zone coverage shows good awareness and understands the weak spots in cover 3 and cover 2.
• Good velocity on his ball and huge hands that help him control his spiral in even in weather.
• Sets and adjusts his own protections. Understands how defenses are attacking him and is good at sliding his blocking towards the pressure.
• Good touch and placement in the short game, gives his playmakers the chance to make yards after the catch.

 

Cons:

• An older prospect at age 24 who suffered two ACL injuries in his time at Indiana before transferring. That is definitely going to make teams wary.
• The aggressive nature of his game means he is going to throw picks – especially when you consider the talent advantage he had at wide receiver in Washington which won’t necessarily be the case in the NFL.
• There is a bit of sloppiness in his footwork. The backfoot has a bit of a tendency to come up and wave around. I think he is a bit of an arm thrower and he could improve his consistency if he tidies up the base. 
• If you can move him off the spot his effectiveness really suffers. He is limited athletically and you will need to have a solid line in front of him.
• Equally when the play breaks down I feel like he gets flustered rather than staying with it. I felt in the National Championship game he missed some opportunities where if he stayed patient there were scramble drill plays to be made.
• He’s a lefty. I know that shouldn’t matter but it is such a rarity at the NFL level and I just feel like it adds a complexity to the way you block and we have seen with Tua in Miami the challenges they have had getting the offensive line right.  

 

Conclusion: I feel like throw back 20 years and Penix is probably a first round grade. It is a bit of a sign of how the NFL has changed that teams value that mobility and ability to operate out of structure so much more these days. I think he has one of the higher floors among the guys in the draft but the ceiling is probably lower. He needs a good offensive line and a vertical passing scheme but he has a chance to be a really solid starter. Early second round grade.

 

 

Bo Nix – Oregon – Senior

Games watched: Georgia, Utah, UCLA (all 2022); Colorado, Washington, USC, Utah (all 2023)

 

Pros:

• Nix is experienced. He will be a 24 year old rookie and has the most starts ever for a Quarterback at the FBS level and his best season was his last one which suggests he may still be on the upswing. 
• I think he has sufficient arm and a fast release. His throwing motion is very repeatable and it allows him to be pretty consistent with his accuracy – especially over the middle – and get the ball to his playmakers.
• I like him in the quick game. If you want to run 3 step drop, ball out, pitch and catch type concepts then Bo Nix is your guy.
• Love where he places the ball on back shoulder throws. He is very consistent at putting it where a defender cannot make a play on the ball without coming through the receiver first. He generated some flags in college, he will benefit from even more in the NFL.
• Mobility. He is a really good athlete who will be able to make plays outside the pocket with his legs and his arm and he does a good job creating when the play breaks down.
• Demonstrates decent recognition pre-snap and identifies mismatches well (even if at Oregon he benefitted from plenty of them).

 

Cons:

• He is 24 years old and there are still areas of his game that require development – is that a risk you want to take with a 24 year old?
• Still not a quick processor. Oregon’s offense designed a bunch of wide open receivers and single defender reads. In the NFL your Quarterback is going to have to drop back on 3rd and long 3 or 4 times a game and read the entire field. I fear Nix will struggle with that.
• Has a tendency to hesitate and hold the ball if his first read isn’t there or even if the window is tight. If he double clutches in the NFL he will take sacks. If he is late on throws his opponents will end up with the ball.
• Could be better at knowing when to use touch and when to drive the ball. Unless you have a cannon arm (Nix doesn’t) the trajectory with which he throws outside is too flat and could lead to picks.
• Footwork gets really fidgety on crunch downs. Often results in misfires where his base is not set.
• While his 2023 production is undoubtedly excellent there is a lot of YAC from his receivers in those numbers. His ceiling is a distributor in my view, not a playmaker.

 

Conclusion: I confess I found Nix a hard evaluation because I fear I have a bias against him that goes back to seeing him struggle in the SEC with Auburn. He has definitely improved and I can see a route to him as an NFL starter but I don’t think this is a franchise Quarterback. I think is asked to be a functional game manager you can win some games with Nix but his weaknesses will always rear their head at inopportune moments. Early third round grade.

 

 

JJ McCarthy – Michigan – Junior

Games watched: Michigan State, Nebraska (both 2022); Purdue, Ohio State, Alabama, Washington (all 2023).

 

Pros:

• Ran a pro-style offense in college, can go under centre, set protections and run conventional play action concepts. Only just turned 21, can still develop.
• His third down production is very impressive. He doesn’t mind challenging tight windows when he needs to make a play.
• Mobile, can move, and has some dog in him. Doesn’t give up on plays and is willing to run for first downs and move the chains.
• My favourite thing about him is the way he stands in the pocket. He wants to play the game from the pocket, he wants to make throws and he is willing to get hit in order to do so.
• Accurate on slants and curls in the middle of the field, especially when faced with zone coverage and shows awareness of how to lead his receivers into areas where there is YAC potential.
• Safe decision maker. There are negatives to that too but I think you can trust JJ McCarthy not to be a turnover machine as a rookie in the NFL. Understands game situation and only takes the riskier option on “gotta have it” downs.

 

Cons:

• Don’t like his arm and don’t like his release. He has an elongated release arc and he doesn’t have enough drive power or velocity on his football to overcome that.
• If you can pressure him his accuracy falls off a cliff. Has a tendency to miss high too often too and that is always risky at the NFL level.
• Very little evidence of him as a full field reader. Possibly a feature of the offense but slow getting through progressions and stays on covered guys too long.
• Don’t see a lot of wow on his tape. There are functional throws, there are a few nice scrambles outside the pocket but he didn’t get you excited watching him. He is a boring watch.
• Isn’t super big or athletic and I think his ability to make people miss outside the pocket is going to be limited.
• Such a low volume passer in college that I don’t know how he’d handle being the face of a franchise, expected to win games on his arm. You are going to need to give him a running game and some decent quick game YAC specialists to have success early.

 

Conclusion: JJ McCarthy was a winning college Quarterback who was coached to be an efficient game manager and filled that role impressively. The question marks on him are whether he has the physical gifts to elevate anything around him and whether he is mentally advanced enough in terms of understanding and diagnosing what he sees from a defense given how little experience he has as a passer. I think he could start for a team for a period but his long term future in the NFL is as a bridge Quarterback or a solid backup. Late 3rd round grade.

Caleb Williams is a better prospect than Patrick mahomes coming out... He's a better prospect than fields , Darnold , baker , Drake Maye , stroud , Anthony Richardson, Watson, tua even allen etc

 

And his processing problems are over exaggerated... He had no problem playing the short quick game at Oklahoma ..  he can process fast... He isn't lost 

 

When your defense gives up 40 points a game you no longer have the option of dinking and dunking down the field for 60 minutes a game... You must hold the ball to take shots ... You take yourself out of that short rhythm because 12 Play drives don't work... You pass up six yard completions to look for 15 yard completions... That's just what happens

 

Does he have flaws in his game? Yes... But I saw him live in HS and Oklahoma and USC and when you put him around his QB peers he elevates... I said 3 years ago he would be the number one overall pick... Because he was on a different level... And I still think he is compared to the others in his class..  put him on LSU and watch what he does

 

And he is the epitome of the modern NFL quarterback.. he's closer to a young Aaron Rodgers arm talent or better deshaun Watson physically.. a guy who can throw from the pocket or launch it while running... He has a live arm and is very mobile 

 

He also plays stronger from the pocket than Drake Maye and others... He has a very strong step up move which leaves defenders hanging off him

 

At the end of the day nobody knows how 22-year-old kids will progress over 5 years... It's a combination of luck, work ethic, skill and where you ended up 

 

David Carr was immensely more talented than his brother... But Derek got the better situation 

 

But Caleb was a dog day 1 on campus in OU... He had former five star number one high school recruit Spencer rattler... Who will also be getting drafted 

 

Shook from day one on campus... Cus Caleb was coming for his job... And out playing him in practice and spring ball 

 

Coming back versus Texas was the icing on the cake and an unbelievable true freshman performance

 

Every single quarterback right down to Tom Brady and Peyton Manning have flaws...

 

So yeah it's easy to nitpick 22-year-old kids...

 

But Caleb certainly isn't your run of the mill quarterback and I've been scouting them a long time .. like I said I saw a number one overall pick in spring ball when he was a freshman 

 

He has immense talent and has been playing with a lot of pressure on him for years so pressure won't fold him

 

If anything the bears organization will... It sucks that that is where he's going because they haven't developed a quarterback in 40 years

 

I think Maye has a lot of talent, is Young... And has the size you want 

 

But I do not think he is the playmaker that Caleb can be at the next level

 

 

 

 

Edited April 24 by Buffalo716

[Augie]

23 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

I honestly don't think any QB in this years class becomes a franchise QB.  Mid level at best IMO.

 

Regardless, I hope they ALL get drafted before #28 so somebody has to fall.   😋

[Robert Paulson]

23 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

I honestly don't think any QB in this years class becomes a franchise QB.  Mid level at best IMO.

me as well. the Bears dumped Fields for 'Fields'. 6 franchises will set themselves back this year for 4 more years.

[Royale with Cheese]

59 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

Regardless, I hope they ALL get drafted before #28 so somebody has to fall.   😋

 

What was a better Thursday night....

 

Modern Day NFL Draft 

 

or

 

1990's NBC Must See Thursday with Seinfeld, Cheers, Wings, Mad About You, Friends and Fraiser?

[Augie]

2 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

What was a better Thursday night....

 

Modern Day NFL Draft 

 

or

 

1990's NBC Must See Thursday with Seinfeld, Cheers, Wings, Mad About You, Friends and Fraiser?

 

Cheers meant Taco Night, a treat in our house!  🌮 🍺 

[DCOrange]

23 hours ago, DCOrange said:

Love reading this post each year and seeing where you and I align and differ. I’ll probably try to come back and throw my abbreviated scouting reports in here when I get back home so we don’t clutter up the board with multiple QB breakdown posts. I think I have two more games of Rattler to get through before I’m done with the main scouting reports for the year and my guess at the moment is Rattler will end up ahead of a couple of these guys on my list but it could go either way still.

 

I also have an even more abbreviated scouting report for Joe Milton and potentially will do Devin Leary and Jordan Travis if I have time.

 

I think my current order for the guys I’ve scouted is:

1. Maye
2. Caleb
3. JJ
4. Nix
5. Penix
6. Daniels
7. Pratt

with 4-6 all being close to one another.

Okay, following up with some notes on this year's crop but if people want to check out the actual website: https://draftqbs.wordpress.com/2024-draft/overall-grades/. This link will take you to the overall page for the 2024 class but there's a drop down in the top right to open each of their profiles.

1. Drake Maye - 91 (Top 5 pick)
2. Caleb Williams - 86 (Top 10 pick)
3. J.J. McCarthy - 79 (Early 2nd round pick)
4. Bo Nix - 77 (Late 2nd/Early 3rd)
5. Jayden Daniels - 76 (3rd round)
6. Michael Penix Jr. - 75 (Late 3rd)
7. Spencer Rattler - 73 (4th round)
8. Michael Pratt - 70 (Late 5th)
9. Joe Milton III - 66 (7th round)

Drake Maye

• The prototype everyone thinks of when creating a QB. Size, arm strength, and athleticism is all there in spades.
• Oozes arm talent, with the velocity and willingness to make tight window throws, the touch to take something off when needed, and the flexibility to accurately deliver passes even when he doesn't have a clean base to throw from.
• Uses pump fakes and his eyes to manipulate coverage, diagnoses pressure pre-snap, and throws with anticipation on intermediate and deep passes to really put a lot of pressure on the defense.
• Costs himself time with various technical issues: some slow dropbacks, patting the ball before throwing, having a slightly elongated release, and general hesitancies in the short game.
• Footwork has room for improvement and currently costs him some of his consistency as a passer.
• Too willing to test tight windows sometimes.

Caleb Williams

• Doesn't have the same size as Maye, but his physical tools are out of this world.
• Flexible arm to throw from various angles and comfort throwing from awkward platforms, off the wrong foot, etc.
• Not the fastest QB around but he's as elusive as they come both in and out of the pocket.
• Has that playmaker gene that is so in-vogue right now.
• Arm talent is ridiculous but ball placement can be a bit spotty.
• Pre-snap reads leave a lot to be desired.
• Inconsistent reads in the read option game.
• Simply improvises far too much right now.

J.J. McCarthy

• Just turned 21, youngest passer in the class.
• Good athlete.
• Good vision and contact balance as a runner despite relatively small size; think he could have been utilized in the run game more than he was at Michigan.
• Pretty good timing as a passer, especially on deep passes.
• Keeps his eyes up when he rolls out.
• Every pass is thrown on a rope; almost zero flashes of throwing with touch.
• When he misses, he tends to sail it over the receiver's head.

Bo Nix

• Good athlete and knows how to protect his body.
• Accurate 20 yards and shorter.
• Takes good care of the ball.
• Doesn't use his legs enough to generate power behind his throws.
• Oregon system makes it difficult to evaluate him due to the ridiculous number of quick hitters.
• Infamously terrible dealing with pressure at Auburn but got the ball out so quickly at Oregon we didn't really get to see if he's improved when under duress.
• 24 years old already.

Jayden Daniels

• As close to Lamar as it gets in terms of running in the open field. Nowhere near as good in traffic as Lamar.
• Works side to side in his progressions more than most in this class and gets the ball out on time.
• Throws with good timing and placement on curl routes, slot fades, and squatters against zone coverage.
• Historically bad in terms of pressure to sack ratio and responds to pressure terribly.
• Does not keep his eyes up when on the move.
• Does not protect his body on the move.
• Often misses behind the target on horizontal routes.
• Tends to leave deep ball short and force his WRs to box out/contort their bodies to catch the ball.
• Will turn 24 as a rookie.
• His center did a terrible job snapping the ball.

Michael Penix Jr.

• Maybe best in the class in terms of getting through progressions.
• Manipulates coverage with his eyes, huge hands to really sell his pump fakes, etc.
• Best in class in terms of pressure to sack ratio; mostly from knowing where his check downs are (though there are issues here still).
• Good placement on deep throws, out routes, and curls.
• Lots of passes batted at the line due to low release angle.
• A sitting duck inside the pocket.
• Shies away from contact/would rather throw it up for grabs than take a sack.
• Accuracy under pressure falls off a cliff.
• More area accuracy rather than pinpoint.
• Turns 24 in a couple weeks.

Spencer Rattler

• In terms of size and physical tools, he's fairly similar to Caleb Williams.
• Can throw the heater as well as the changeup when needed.
• Playmaker's mentality, both the good and the bad.
• Not as athletic as he thinks he is; scrambles very often but isn't able to get away from pass rushers.
• Not as strong as he thinks he is; often thinks he has the arm to throw off his backfoot/while backpedaling and leaves the ball hanging in the air.
• Constantly late on reads and gives DBs a chance to recover.
• Struggles to recognize blitzers.
• Tends to get stuck on his primary read.
• Will turn 24 early in his rookie season.

Michael Pratt

• Experienced, calls protections at the line, throws with touch.
• Mediocre arm and mobility, spotty ball placement, limited ceiling.
• Needs everything around him to be perfect to succeed.

Joe Milton III

• Cannon for an arm. Might have been a worthy developmental project if he were younger.
• Horrendous accuracy; strong candidate for a position change in the NFL.