Gunner's 2024 Draft Quarterback Evaluations

[GunnerBill]

**** Warning Long Post ****

 

It's draft week! So here, finally, are my tape evaluations of the top Quarterbacks in the year's NFL Draft. I have only done the top 6 guys this year. I think I said last year it was too much SEC when watching the film... this year it was a lot of PAC 12! Roll on re-alignment!!

 

A reminder of my process for those who are new before we begin: 

 

1. My process is four step as every year:

- Try to identify the runners and riders at Quarterback the summer before;

- Try and watch each at least twice in live game action on tv by mid season;

- Film review in the early part of the year. For Quarterbacks I set the minimum number of games watched at 5;

 

2. I try and balance the games I watch back in the evaluation phase for each prospect. I want to see them at their best and their worst in so far as is possible and against a range of opposition where possible.  

 

3. My grades for each are against an objective scale…. They are not predictions of where players should go in the draft. I have to grade them not only against this draft and this year but against an objective scale so that in future years you can benchmark other classes - that might be better or worse - against it. 

 

Before we start I should say that four of these guys ended up with a LOWER grade after the film review than my indicative grading based on watching them on TV. Only two went up - Bo Nix (slightly) and Michael Penix (more significantly). I think it is a class with a lot of guys who do some things well, but they all have some really noticeable holes when you get into deep film study too. Here goes....

 

Caleb Williams – USC – Junior

Games watched: Utah, UCLA (2022) Notre Dame, Colorado, California, Oregon, Stanford (all 2023)

 

Pros:

• The first thing that jumps of the film with Williams is his creativity. It is Mahomes like. He sees passing lanes that most Quarterbacks don’t see and is able to manipulate arm angles and flip the ball out when otherwise a play would be dead.
• He isn’t Justin Fields (who he will be replacing) but he has plus mobility. You are going to be able to use his legs, especially early in his NFL career to buy him some time, make some first downs and get into some rhythm.
• Excellent fast release and generates good velocity on the ball especially in the intermediate range.
• Throws core NFL concepts – the slant, the out and the deep post well and with a level of consistency. They are going to be staples of any offense you insert him into as a rookie.
• Was asked to go through progressions and read the field. Often asked to get to his third or fourth read which will help the mental transition to the NFL.
• Carries his team. Especially in 2023 his supporting cast wasn’t great. Yes, it affected his production some, but he was still able to lead them back in numerous games where he was asked to throw 35-40 times.

 

Cons:

• Starts with the size. Being a 6’1 Quarterback in the NFL these days isn’t the total anomaly it was in the past but it limits your ability to do much under centre stuff and Caleb will need to make his living in shotgun.
• He holds the ball too long. The downside of asking him to read the full field is some teams I feel like he is too slow getting through progressions and that is where the sacks come from.
• Holding the ball also contributes to fumbles which in 2023 were a major issue – 16 in 12 starts.
• Too willing too just fling the ball up when off platform and under pressure. It bit him in the Notre Dame game but there were other examples on film where I thought it could have led to interceptions and he got lucky.
• I think his deep ball accuracy is questionable. While I like the velocity he generates in the intermediate range his deep balls seem to die a bit at the end.
• Could sell play action better. I feel like he is very quick to come off the fake. Sometimes that helps him but often it means defenders haven’t fully committed to playing the run and so passing windows aren’t fully open.

 

Conclusion: Caleb Williams is the kind of playmaker first, Quarterback second that we have seen increasingly become the norm in the NFL over the past 7 or 8 years. The natural creativity is going to be attractive to a team like the Bears who still have some issues up front and will benefit from a Quarterback that doesn’t need to be comfortable to thrive but his long-term ceiling will depend on him improving his processing and doing the routine with greater consistency. Top half of first round grade.

 

 

Drake Maye – North Carolina – Redshirt Sophomore

Games watched: Clemson, Pittsburgh (2022); Clemson, Miami, Duke, South Carolina (all 2023)

 

Pros:

• Prototypical size and play style and aged 21 there remains room for him to grow and improve.
• Live arm, plenty of pop on it and makes you defend all areas of the field.
• I like that he keeps his eyes downfield even when things get messy in the pocket. He does have issues under pressure, which I will come onto, but he doesn’t look down at the rush he keeps seeking options.
• Good ball placement on back shoulder throws and throws the fade well.
• Love the trajectory he gets on downfield throws, especially the go route. His ball has a lovely arc and drops in the bucket consistently.
• Not going to be a dual threat style weapon but has enough mobility to get on the move outside the pocket and pick up some yards on scramble drills.

 

Cons:

• His arm angle definitely gets impacted by pressure and as a result he has a tendency to get low in those scenarios leading to balls hitting the ground and batted balls.
• Sixteen interceptions in two seasons and the vast majority are down to decision making. Can get reckless at inopportune moments and in game scenarios that don’t call for it.
• That recklessness also leads to him taking too many chances into double and even triple coverage especially to Tez Walker who he has a tendency to lock onto as his primary target. 
• His release is inefficient and elongated. I worry that will give NFL edge rushers a lot of chances to knock the ball out during the wind up.
• The downside of him keeping his eyes downfield so well is that he occasionally walks into sacks in the pocket. His footwork tends to get sloppy when he feels the outside rush and he creates his own problems at times.
• Regressed in 2023. His 2022 film is better and shows more consistency. Got to wonder if that is teams cottoning on to some of his tendencies.

 

Conclusion: Drake Maye is the most conventional early round Quarterback of the group and there are flashes of elite level Quarterback play. He is also one of the youngest in this class with the most room to grow. He makes big boy NFL throws with ease at times but there is a recklessness and a rawness that you are going to have to be able to live with early while he continues to mature. He will need very skilled handling by Head Coach and OC to develop him into what they hope he can become. Behind a bad line and without weapons early it could get really messy. Late first round grade.

 

 

Jayden Daniels – LSU – Senior

Games watched: Alabama, Florida State (2022); Alabama, Florida, Army, Missouri (all 2023)

 

Pros:

• Elite athlete, going to be a genuine dual threat Quarterback at the NFL level. There are going to be opportunities for him as a passer at the next level that are created by defensive coordinators game planning to take his legs away.
• Excellent thrower on the move. When you roll him out create a half field read and also give him the option to keep it he is deadly.
• I love him pre-snap. Sets and adjusts protections, understands what he sees and is mentally as advanced as any Quarterback in the class.
• Throws with anticipation, especially against zone defense. Recognises when his receivers will hit the soft spot in the zone and gets the ball there with an opportunity for yards after the catch.
• Good accuracy in the middle of the field where he gets the ball in front of his receivers without creating lots of opportunities for negative plays.
• Has definitely works on his footwork and it was improved in 2023 even over and above 2022. Much more consistent and much more repeatable and it has led to improved mechanics in the pocket.

 

Cons:

• He is very thin. His frame is wiry both top and bottom half and he looks slight even against college athletes. His ability to hold up to the physicality of the NFL is a legit question.
• His arm is only okay. He has enough to get by but the velocity is average and that affects his ability to challenge tight windows, especially where faced with man coverage looks. 
• Possibly linked to his arm but he has a tendency to leave his deep balls short, making receivers come back to them and giving defensive backs a chance to get back into the play.
• Also potentially linked to the arm limitations but his accuracy dips significantly outside the numbers, even in the short game – shallow outs, dump offs, and throws to the flat.
• Think he can lock onto targets. The interception he threw vs Alabama was created by Dallas Turner reading his eyes and getting his hands into the passing lane and I think he could do more to manipulate defenses with his eyes.
• Needs to speed up the processor at times. When the ball comes out on time he looks a much better Quarterback, especially when projecting to the pro level. When he holds it uncertainty creeps into his game.

 

Conclusion: I know this is hardly an original take but there is a lot of Lamar Jackson about Jayden Daniels. He has the elite dual threat ability and is much more comfortable throwing between the numbers than he is outside them. He doesn’t have Lamar’s arm and that would seem to lower the ceiling but he is more advanced between the ears than Jackson was coming out. Mid second round grade.

 

 

Michael Penix – Washington – Senior

Games watched: Stanford, UCLA (both 2022); Oregon, Michigan, Texas, California, Tulsa (all 2023)

 

Pros:

• The most natural pocket passer in the class, Penix has great feel for where pressure is coming from and is able to move his feet to slide up and to the side and give himself the best window to make a throw.
• He is also the most aggressive passer in the class for me. Nobody is willing to give his wide receivers a chance to go and make a play as much as Michael Penix. He is willing to attack downfield against man and zone.
• When going downfield against zone coverage shows good awareness and understands the weak spots in cover 3 and cover 2.
• Good velocity on his ball and huge hands that help him control his spiral in even in weather.
• Sets and adjusts his own protections. Understands how defenses are attacking him and is good at sliding his blocking towards the pressure.
• Good touch and placement in the short game, gives his playmakers the chance to make yards after the catch.

 

Cons:

• An older prospect at age 24 who suffered two ACL injuries in his time at Indiana before transferring. That is definitely going to make teams wary.
• The aggressive nature of his game means he is going to throw picks – especially when you consider the talent advantage he had at wide receiver in Washington which won’t necessarily be the case in the NFL.
• There is a bit of sloppiness in his footwork. The backfoot has a bit of a tendency to come up and wave around. I think he is a bit of an arm thrower and he could improve his consistency if he tidies up the base. 
• If you can move him off the spot his effectiveness really suffers. He is limited athletically and you will need to have a solid line in front of him.
• Equally when the play breaks down I feel like he gets flustered rather than staying with it. I felt in the National Championship game he missed some opportunities where if he stayed patient there were scramble drill plays to be made.
• He’s a lefty. I know that shouldn’t matter but it is such a rarity at the NFL level and I just feel like it adds a complexity to the way you block and we have seen with Tua in Miami the challenges they have had getting the offensive line right.  

 

Conclusion: I feel like throw back 20 years and Penix is probably a first round grade. It is a bit of a sign of how the NFL has changed that teams value that mobility and ability to operate out of structure so much more these days. I think he has one of the higher floors among the guys in the draft but the ceiling is probably lower. He needs a good offensive line and a vertical passing scheme but he has a chance to be a really solid starter. Early second round grade.

 

 

Bo Nix – Oregon – Senior

Games watched: Georgia, Utah, UCLA (all 2022); Colorado, Washington, USC, Utah (all 2023)

 

Pros:

• Nix is experienced. He will be a 24 year old rookie and has the most starts ever for a Quarterback at the FBS level and his best season was his last one which suggests he may still be on the upswing. 
• I think he has sufficient arm and a fast release. His throwing motion is very repeatable and it allows him to be pretty consistent with his accuracy – especially over the middle – and get the ball to his playmakers.
• I like him in the quick game. If you want to run 3 step drop, ball out, pitch and catch type concepts then Bo Nix is your guy.
• Love where he places the ball on back shoulder throws. He is very consistent at putting it where a defender cannot make a play on the ball without coming through the receiver first. He generated some flags in college, he will benefit from even more in the NFL.
• Mobility. He is a really good athlete who will be able to make plays outside the pocket with his legs and his arm and he does a good job creating when the play breaks down.
• Demonstrates decent recognition pre-snap and identifies mismatches well (even if at Oregon he benefitted from plenty of them).

 

Cons:

• He is 24 years old and there are still areas of his game that require development – is that a risk you want to take with a 24 year old?
• Still not a quick processor. Oregon’s offense designed a bunch of wide open receivers and single defender reads. In the NFL your Quarterback is going to have to drop back on 3rd and long 3 or 4 times a game and read the entire field. I fear Nix will struggle with that.
• Has a tendency to hesitate and hold the ball if his first read isn’t there or even if the window is tight. If he double clutches in the NFL he will take sacks. If he is late on throws his opponents will end up with the ball.
• Could be better at knowing when to use touch and when to drive the ball. Unless you have a cannon arm (Nix doesn’t) the trajectory with which he throws outside is too flat and could lead to picks.
• Footwork gets really fidgety on crunch downs. Often results in misfires where his base is not set.
• While his 2023 production is undoubtedly excellent there is a lot of YAC from his receivers in those numbers. His ceiling is a distributor in my view, not a playmaker.

 

Conclusion: I confess I found Nix a hard evaluation because I fear I have a bias against him that goes back to seeing him struggle in the SEC with Auburn. He has definitely improved and I can see a route to him as an NFL starter but I don’t think this is a franchise Quarterback. I think is asked to be a functional game manager you can win some games with Nix but his weaknesses will always rear their head at inopportune moments. Early third round grade.

 

 

JJ McCarthy – Michigan – Junior

Games watched: Michigan State, Nebraska (both 2022); Purdue, Ohio State, Alabama, Washington (all 2023).

 

Pros:

• Ran a pro-style offense in college, can go under centre, set protections and run conventional play action concepts. Only just turned 21, can still develop.
• His third down production is very impressive. He doesn’t mind challenging tight windows when he needs to make a play.
• Mobile, can move, and has some dog in him. Doesn’t give up on plays and is willing to run for first downs and move the chains.
• My favourite thing about him is the way he stands in the pocket. He wants to play the game from the pocket, he wants to make throws and he is willing to get hit in order to do so.
• Accurate on slants and curls in the middle of the field, especially when faced with zone coverage and shows awareness of how to lead his receivers into areas where there is YAC potential.
• Safe decision maker. There are negatives to that too but I think you can trust JJ McCarthy not to be a turnover machine as a rookie in the NFL. Understands game situation and only takes the riskier option on “gotta have it” downs.

 

Cons:

• Don’t like his arm and don’t like his release. He has an elongated release arc and he doesn’t have enough drive power or velocity on his football to overcome that.
• If you can pressure him his accuracy falls off a cliff. Has a tendency to miss high too often too and that is always risky at the NFL level.
• Very little evidence of him as a full field reader. Possibly a feature of the offense but slow getting through progressions and stays on covered guys too long.
• Don’t see a lot of wow on his tape. There are functional throws, there are a few nice scrambles outside the pocket but he didn’t get you excited watching him. He is a boring watch.
• Isn’t super big or athletic and I think his ability to make people miss outside the pocket is going to be limited.
• Such a low volume passer in college that I don’t know how he’d handle being the face of a franchise, expected to win games on his arm. You are going to need to give him a running game and some decent quick game YAC specialists to have success early.

 

Conclusion: JJ McCarthy was a winning college Quarterback who was coached to be an efficient game manager and filled that role impressively. The question marks on him are whether he has the physical gifts to elevate anything around him and whether he is mentally advanced enough in terms of understanding and diagnosing what he sees from a defense given how little experience he has as a passer. I think he could start for a team for a period but his long term future in the NFL is as a bridge Quarterback or a solid backup. Late 3rd round grade.

Edited April 25 by GunnerBill

[Royale with Cheese]

I honestly don't think any QB in this years class becomes a franchise QB.  Mid level at best IMO.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

I can’t wait to watch McCarthy fall out of the first round. He’s this year’s Will Levis in terms of receiving so much first round hype post bowl season and leading up to the draft. 

[DCOrange]

Love reading this post each year and seeing where you and I align and differ. I’ll probably try to come back and throw my abbreviated scouting reports in here when I get back home so we don’t clutter up the board with multiple QB breakdown posts. I think I have two more games of Rattler to get through before I’m done with the main scouting reports for the year and my guess at the moment is Rattler will end up ahead of a couple of these guys on my list but it could go either way still.

 

I also have an even more abbreviated scouting report for Joe Milton and potentially will do Devin Leary and Jordan Travis if I have time.

 

I think my current order for the guys I’ve scouted is:

1. Maye
2. Caleb
3. JJ
4. Nix
5. Penix
6. Daniels
7. Pratt

with 4-6 all being close to one another.

Edited April 23 by DCOrange

[mannc]

27 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

I can’t wait to watch McCarthy fall out of the first round. He’s this year’s Will Levis in terms of receiving so much first round hype post bowl season and leading up to the draft. 

I can't wait to watch the Patriots draft him third overall...

[DCOrange]

3 minutes ago, mannc said:

I can't wait to watch the Patriots draft him third overall...

I’m absolutely dreading watching them draft Maye 

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

I’m absolutely dreading watching them draft Maye 

 

Yea I think he is the one who scares me a bit. I think he has some bust potential, for sure, and I am not sure New England is a great place for him as a rookie, bad oline and no weapons. But if one of these hits big I can see why it might be Maye.

[Alphadawg7]

I just have this gut feeling Caleb is gonna not live up to the hype in Chicago.  Something about him reminds me of Jeff George...incredible talent but I think his ego and mental aspects are going to be his own worst enemy.  

 

When I look for a QB to have elite potential, a big part of that is inspiring those around them to want to go to war with them.  They elevate and motivate those around them, and I lack confidence in Caleb to excel in those areas.  Kind of like Jamie Foxx in "Any Given Sunday" where he was a hard guy to like for a while and didn't have the support of everyone in the locker room.  

 

I like Maye's upside potential more than Caleb even though Maye does have a lower floor with more to work on to be a top end QB in the NFL.  He has a Josh Allen type ceiling when you watch him play.

Edited April 23 by Alphadawg7

[mannc]

5 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

I’m absolutely dreading watching them draft Maye 

I'm not...

[DCOrange]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I think he is the one who scares me a bit. I think he has some bust potential, for sure, and I am not sure New England is a great place for him as a rookie, bad oline and no weapons. But if one of these hits big I can see why it might be Maye.

It would make me sad for multiple reasons: (1) because I want to see him given a decent landing spot to blossom and New England doesn’t seem to be that and (2) If they are able to build around him I think he’ll be a thorn in our side. 

[RoyBatty is alive]

Wowzer, you have the OPPOSITE of grade inflation on all of these guys.

 

I think ALL of the QBs you mentioned go in Rd 1.  I thought you would mention Caleb Williams and his mental stability and prowess to be a leader.  His crying episode with his mom is a serious red flag to me.

[Solomon Grundy]

1 hour ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

I can’t wait to watch McCarthy fall out of the first round. He’s this year’s Will Levis in terms of receiving so much first round hype post bowl season and leading up to the draft. 

Brady Quinn in the green room 😂

[Sweats]

All of these QB's will go fairly early in the 1st round, but unfortunately, i don't really see any of them making a meaningful impact in the NFL......maybe Maye, as i see him with the most upside with the least amount of flaws, but the rest are going to fall by the wayside.

 

 

[Virgil]

Please warn me next time you make a long post 

[gjv]

I've watched Jayden Daniels many times this past season, and have also watched Lemar Jackson many times over the past six years. I think Daniels has a better release, more velocity, and is far more accurate than Lemar Jackson. I believe Daniels has a very good chance of being a franchise quarterback.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Wowzer, you have the OPPOSITE of grade inflation on all of these guys.

 

I think ALL of the QBs you mentioned go in Rd 1.  I thought you would mention Caleb Williams and his mental stability and prowess to be a leader.  His crying episode with his mom is a serious red flag to me.

 

I don't push Quarterbacks up the board. I grade them the way I grade other premium positions. 

 

I think they all go round 1 or early round 2. But that doesn't mean they are all worth that.

[NeverOutNick]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I think he is the one who scares me a bit. I think he has some bust potential, for sure, and I am not sure New England is a great place for him as a rookie, bad oline and no weapons. But if one of these hits big I can see why it might be Maye.

Agreed he’s my highest rated because of his immense potential. Thanks for posting you always do thorough work and I’ll read fully later 

[HappyDays]

Chris Simms is lower on Drake Maye than just about anyone, has him as his 6th ranked QB behind Williams, Daniels, Nix, Penix, and McCarthy (in that order). The concern he's noted is that he thinks Maye is more of a project than the others and will need to rework a lot of his mechanics before seeing the field. He says Maye loses control of too many throws for seemingly no good reason. Curious if you saw any of this in your evaluation.

[dave mcbride]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't push Quarterbacks up the board. I grade them the way I grade other premium positions. 

 

I think they all go round 1 or early round 2. But that doesn't mean they are all worth that.

Gonna push back a little. A little better than average qb (if you don’t have one) is worth ten times more than an elite receiver/DE/CB/LT. It’s just such a far more important position, and it’s not even arguable. Hence you might want to factor that into your grades.

5 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Chris Simms is lower on Drake Maye than just about anyone, has him as his 6th ranked QB behind Williams, Daniels, Nix, Penix, and McCarthy (in that order). The concern he's noted is that he thinks Maye is more of a project than the others and will need to rework a lot of his mechanics before seeing the field. He says Maye loses control of too many throws for seemingly no good reason. Curious if you saw any of this in your evaluation.

I like Simms, but he LOVED Zach Wilson. I do get it — we’ve all been wrong about prospects (Sam Darnold on my end).

[HappyDays]

8 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I like Simms, but he LOVED Zach Wilson. I do get it — we’ve all been wrong about prospects (Sam Darnold on my end).

 

Yeah he has been too high on a few QBs, but he hasn't been too low on any that I can remember. Even from that same draft he said that he liked Trevor Lawrence, just didn't see him as a generational prospect like most people thought, and I would say that assessment of Lawrence turned out correct.