1st Round Draft Poll...WWBD (what will Beane do)?

[eball]

37 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I’ve had this weird feeling that they were going into the top 10 for a while. I thought that when Diggs was here. If I thought it then, I can’t change now that the need is greater. I can’t shake Beane press conference when he talked about how “he would love a Ja’marr Chase but hopes to never finish bad enough to draft one.” To me, I think that he looks at it as, “swing big on a star WR” and avoid paying that giant bill for 5 years. You can allocate that savings, moving forward to pass rush or whatever. The rising cost of elite receivers makes this the right time to swing big. 

 

Interesting.  I think the ONLY time it makes sense to make that kind of a move for a WR is if you already have a franchise QB...which of course the Bills do.  You get the stud receiver "on the cheap" for at least three years...then rinse, wash, repeat.

 

I think I'd be down with it.

 

[K D]

He almost always trades up like 2-3 spots for absolutely no reason. Remember when he traded up for Elam because we just had to have him? That was fun. I'd expect a trade to 22-25 just because 

[Buffalo Boy]

My guess is he stays. My hope is he doesn’t trade away the farm for a crazy move up.

[LabattBlue]

I still have a bad feeling that if Cooper DeJean is on the board at 28, McD shouts down any WR talk, and the Bills draft DeJean. 

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Early 20s. It’s his MO.

Yup, this was my vote and what I had in my last mock.  

[Fan in Chicago]

48 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I’ve had this weird feeling that they were going into the top 10 for a while. I thought that when Diggs was here. If I thought it then, I can’t change now that the need is greater. I can’t shake Beane press conference when he talked about how “he would love a Ja’marr Chase but hopes to never finish bad enough to draft one.” To me, I think that he looks at it as, “swing big on a star WR” and avoid paying that giant bill for 5 years. You can allocate that savings, moving forward to pass rush or whatever. The rising cost of elite receivers makes this the right time to swing big. 

 

You estimate is that the WR room is bottom 3 right now. I honestly dont know the WR qualities of about 15 teams so I cant challenge nor agree with you.

 

However, I took a swag at estimating the WR room quality in different scenarios. Do you agree?

 

Draft one of big 3 + vet addition            Top 5
Draft one of big 3 + another in Rd 4         Top 5
Draft 1A tier (BT Jr) + vet addition         Top 10
Draft 1A tier (BT Jr) + another in Rd 4      Top 10 (maybe)
Draft 2nd tier and any one else              Middle of the road

[dave mcbride]

26 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

 

It won’t be cheap but, realistically, something like 28, 60, 144, ‘25 1st & ‘25 2nd (preferably ours) would seem like enough. The Bills could still use those 4ths, 5ths, etc… to fill out the depth on the DL & secondary. They’d still have an early 2nd next year (at least in theory). 

 I don't *think* this will happen, but given the Vikings overall roster, which is pretty good, I could see them possibly going 10-7 and I think it's in the realm of possibility that the Bills end up in the same place. I guess all I'm saying is that I wouldn't assume 100 percent that the Vikings will be bad and that their pick will be better. Darnold isn't great, but he's not horrible and he's definitely an upgrade over what they had after Cousins went down last season. Darnold went 4-2 with Carolina in 2022 on a team with a pretty bad roster overall. It is a tough division, though. 

Edited April 23 by dave mcbride

[Einstein's Dog]

17 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

He almost always trades up like 2-3 spots for absolutely no reason. Remember when he traded up for Elam because we just had to have him? That was fun. I'd expect a trade to 22-25 just because 

True, the trade up seemed anxious for Elam to me.  But the move up for Kincaid seemed brilliant (the reaction from the Dallas war room spoke volumes).

 

As mentioned earlier I could see a small move up again to get maybe Worthy on the thought that KC might make the move.

[NewEra]

All depends how the draft falls-  I’m inclined to say trade up into the 20’s because he’s done just that the last 2 seasons.  
 

I’d be happy with any of the outcomes as long as we don’t take this years version of Kaiir Elam again. Hated that pick.  Loved all the other 1st rd picks other than wrong Josh!  
 

Ed and Kincaid were the players I wanted most in rd 1 going into their respective drafts.  This year….i don’t think I really have a favorite.  Lots a players I like.  Some WRs, some not.  
 

Polkin rd 2 is my only dream this year.  So Latu and Polk with our first 2 picks would be dreamy

[TheyCallMeAndy]

I’m not married to a R1 WR, so if the value is gone by 28, I’m all for a slight trade back into R2 in order to get an additional R2 and hopefully a R3.  

[The Jokeman]

Move back, he's upset about no 3rd for Edmunds and wants to get some guys that can start in 2024 and maybe 2025 and to me that comes from quality picks early and easiest way to get more is to trade down in Round 1.

[Kirby Jackson]

26 minutes ago, Fan in Chicago said:

 

You estimate is that the WR room is bottom 3 right now. I honestly dont know the WR qualities of about 15 teams so I cant challenge nor agree with you.

 

However, I took a swag at estimating the WR room quality in different scenarios. Do you agree?

 

Draft one of big 3 + vet addition            Top 5
Draft one of big 3 + another in Rd 4         Top 5
Draft 1A tier (BT Jr) + vet addition         Top 10
Draft 1A tier (BT Jr) + another in Rd 4      Top 10 (maybe)
Draft 2nd tier and any one else              Middle of the road

I think that’s still a bit aggressive but if they added something like Odunze & Odell they could be top 10ish. I would really like the WR depth but they’d still be a little underwhelming at the top. I feel like it’s a good start though. IMO, the Bills have a couple of strong slot / move guys in Shakir and Samuel. I don’t think either is an elite boundary guy. Having a star though, on a rookie deal, opens up a whole bunch of options moving forward. 

[Brandon]

32 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

I still have a bad feeling that if Cooper DeJean is on the board at 28, McD shouts down any WR talk, and the Bills draft DeJean. 

 

I think you're right.  In terms of realistic Bills picks at 28 and what I expect they'll actually do,  I have DeJean #2 on the board before the 2nd tier WRs (Latu being #1,  though a bigger stretch to be available at 28).   

[TheyCallMeAndy]

38 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

I still have a bad feeling that if Cooper DeJean is on the board at 28, McD shouts down any WR talk, and the Bills draft DeJean. 

Unless one of the top 4-5 WRs somehow fall to 28, I’d have zero issues with this happening. 
 

We have enough 4s, 5s, and 6s to combo them with 60 and move up for a WR on day 2.

 

Ill be a happy dude if we walk into Saturday with one of the top 8 WRs and FS Cooper Dejean. 

[LabattBlue]

2 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Unless one of the top 4-5 WRs somehow fall to 28, I’d have zero issues with this happening. 
 

We have enough 4s, 5s, and 6s to combo them with 60 and move up for a WR on day 2.

 

Ill be a happy dude if we walk into Saturday with one of the top 8 WRs and FS Cooper Dejean. 

Look at the pick value chart and tell me how the Bills are getting from 60 to say 45 using 4th, 5th and/or 6th round picks. 
 

It is not happening.  

[4BillsintheBurgh]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I’ve had this weird feeling that they were going into the top 10 for a while. I thought that when Diggs was here. If I thought it then, I can’t change now that the need is greater. I can’t shake Beane press conference when he talked about how “he would love a Ja’marr Chase but hopes to never finish bad enough to draft one.” To me, I think that he looks at it as, “swing big on a star WR” and avoid paying that giant bill for 5 years. You can allocate that savings, moving forward to pass rush or whatever. The rising cost of elite receivers makes this the right time to swing big. 

I guess I kind of think the opposite of this. The time for me to burn draft picks would have been while Josh was in his lower cap years. We kind of need the picks to hit now to manage the finances unfortunately. In the low cap hit years we are able to grab a Von Miller type player or two, now there is less overhead and more reliance on smaller vet contracts coming in. I am thinking he is going to try and leverage Josh's talent as much as possible and I thought it was an interesting point when he said he needs a selfless guy in this offense. Not sure if the top guys are that, but that's just because of my ignorance. I'm guessing they have identified a few guys who fit the mold they're looking for and I wouldn't be surprised if they're 2nd and lower round guys.

 

The big swing, if taken, will be a deviation from Beane's normal mantra. Will be interesting to see if he is feeling a little pressure to dump some future resources into this year. I thought it was awesome when he positioned us to not give up any future picks when moving up for josh/Edmunds and I think it just underscores his natural aversion to giving the next years picks up. Always room for a tendency breaker though. Can't wait to see on Thursday.

[4BillsintheBurgh]

20 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

Look at the pick value chart and tell me how the Bills are getting from 60 to say 45 using 4th, 5th and/or 6th round picks. 
 

It is not happening.  

I think if they don't get a receiver they like at 28, the Diggs 2025 pick gives them some capital to work with.

[Brandon]

16 minutes ago, 4BillsintheBurgh said:

I think if they don't get a receiver they like at 28, the Diggs 2025 pick gives them some capital to work with.

 

They'd be better off keeping it.  It's probably going to be a top 40 pick next year,  and while valuable in it's own right,   you could also package it next year and have two 1st round picks or one pick near the top 10.  Sure,  you have to wait a year,  but that's worth way more than 3rd round trade value this year,  IMO.  

[HappyDays]

Not sure what he'll do but I think sticking at 28 is the least likely scenario. If one of the top 3 WRs makes it to 8ish I think he will try to make a blockbuster trade up. If someone with a 1st round grade is sticking out on his board in the 20s he is going to trade up for them using one of our 4ths. If all the 1st round grades are wiped out by then I predict a trade back with Washington to recoup our 3rd round pick. So it just depends on how the board falls.

[Mark Vader]

1 hour ago, The Jokeman said:

Move back, he's upset about no 3rd for Edmunds and wants to get some guys that can start in 2024 and maybe 2025 and to me that comes from quality picks early and easiest way to get more is to trade down in Round 1.

I agree with your take. I'm still pissed that we didn't get that 3rd rounder for Edmunds.

 

I do think that Beane will look to move up, but I don't think there will be any takers.

 

Trading down seems very likely. Maybe we move down a couple spots with San Francisco, and get one of their many draft picks. Then find someone early in the second round to trade with?