How do the Bills add 2 top 100 picks this draft in order to fill the team's needs?

[GASabresIUFan]

The more I read and the more mock drafts I simulate on the net, the more I've come to the conclusion that Beane needs to acquire two more top 100 picks in order to meet the team's needs for a starting WR, and good rotational players (and possible 2025 starters) at S, DL and Edge.  

 

When I look at rankings and the mock drafts there is a tier of WRs from 28-45 (Mitchell, McConkey, Worthy, Coleman and Pearsall), a tier of safeties from 65-80 (Bullard, Nubin, Kinchens, Bishops and Bullock), a tier of DL from 50-70 (Jenkins, Orhorhoro, Hall, Smith & Fiske) and a tier of edge players 65-90 (Isaac, Braswell, Booker, Trice & Elliss).  The Bills currently have picks 28 & 60 and then nothing until 128.  There are also some Edge players at approx 28 (Robinson & Kneeland), WRs at 60ish (Legette, Polk, Corley, Wilson).. I also like WR Devontez Walker as a possible 3rd rd steal.

 

There are 4 approaches to get the picks we need. 1) Trade down from 28.  This should garner us a top 100 pick for just moving down a few slots.  2) Trade down from 60.  To get a top 100 pick this way, we'll have to add one of our 4th rd picks.  A deal might look like 60 and 133 for 65 & 94.  3) The 3rd method would be to package our 4th rd picks and additional 5th or 6th rd picks to move back into the late 3rd rd.  Lastly, I can see Beane trading our 2nd or 3rd in 2025 plus a later pick in 2024 to get back into the 2nd or 3rd rd, especially with the Minn 2nd in hand.

 

Depending of how the draft falls on Thursday, I'd trade down from 28 to 31 for SF's 3rd rd pick (94).  The second move I'd make is trading our 3rd rd pick in 2025 and a 4th in 2024 (133) to Atl for pick 79.

 

When I mocked this, I walked away with McConkey at 31, Fiske at 60, Ellis at 79 (we like Utah players after all  ) and Bullock at 94.  I then added Green (CB FSU) at 128, McCaffrey (WR Rice) at 144 and my sleeper Guerendo (RB Louisville) at 160.

 

Thoughts on the strategy(s)?

Edited April 23 by GASabresIUFan

[Big Blitz]

Carolina seems to want Legette. 
 

Maybe they give us 33 and 65 for 28, 128, and a 3rd next year.  Not sure that works but if they really want Legette….  
 

We would have 

 

33

60

65

 

I’d think we could go Ladd Mitchell Worthy or Franklin at 33

 

BPA there on out.   
 

 

 

I think if Beane really wants to move up that first round pick in 2025 is on the table but only for The top 3 WRs and Thomas.  Depends.  

[GASabresIUFan]

4 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

Carolina seems to want Legette. 
 

Maybe they give us 33 and 65 for 28, 128, and a 3rd next year.  Not sure that works but if they really want Legette….  
 

We would have 

 

33

60

65

 

I’d think we could go Ladd Mitchell Worthy or Franklin at 33

 

BPA there on out.   
 

 

 

I think if Beane really wants to move up that first round pick in 2025 is on the table but only for The top 3 WRs and Thomas.  Depends.  

I'm Ok with that, but that only gets us half way to the goal.  We'd still need another Top 100 pick. 

[Rochesterfan]

5 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

The more I read and the more mock drafts I simulate on the net, the more I've come to the conclusion that Beane needs to acquire two more top 100 picks in order to meet the team's needs for a starting WR, and good rotational players (and possible 2025 starters) at S, DL and Edge.  

 

When I look at rankings and the mock drafts there is a tier of WRs from 28-45 (Mitchell, McConkey, Worthy, Coleman and Pearsall), a tier of safeties from 65-80 (Bullard, Nubin, Kinchens, Bishops and Bullock), a tier of DL from 50-70 (Jenkins, Orhorhoro, Hall, Smith & Fiske) and a tier of edge players 65-90 (Isaac, Braswell, Booker, Trice & Elliss).  The Bills currently have picks 28 & 60 and then nothing until 128.  There are also some Edge players at approx 28 (Robinson & Kneeland), WRs at 60ish (Legette, Polk, Corley, Wilson).. I also like WR Devontez Walker as a possible 3rd rd steal.

 

There are 4 approaches to get the picks we need. 1) Trade down from 28.  This should garner us a top 100 pick for just moving down a few slots.  2) Trade down from 60.  To get a top 100 pick this way, we'll have to add one of our 4th rd picks.  A deal might look like 60 and 133 for 65 & 94.  3) The 3rd method would be to package our 4th rd picks and additional 5th or 6th rd picks to move back into the late 3rd rd.  Lastly, I can see Beane trading our 2nd or 3rd in 2025 plus a later pick in 2024 to get back into the 2nd or 3rd rd, especially with the Minn 2nd in hand.

 

Depending of how the draft falls on Thursday, I'd trade down from 28 to 31 for SF's 3rd rd pick (94).  The second move I'd make is trading our 3rd rd pick in 2025 and a 4th in 2024 (133) to Atl for pick 79.

 

When I mocked this, I walked away with McConkey at 31, Fiske at 60, Ellis at 79 (we like Utah players after all  ) and Bullock at 94.  I then added Green (CB FSU) at 128, McCaffrey (WR Rice) at 144 and my sleeper Guerendo (RB Louisville) at 160.

 

Thoughts on the strategy(s)?

 

The idea seems fine, but who is SF so enamored with that they have to move up 3 spots and give us another top 100 pick?  I would assume based upon the team and the draft that they would be moving up for a WR - so I am not sure that works in our favor.

 

I also am not sure that Atl would really want to drop back 50+ picks for a 3rd next year when they have a veteran QB they acquired and are not in build mode, but in win now mode.

 

My guess is that if we move back from 28 - you are acquiring a 2nd round pick from a team wanting a QB with a 5th year option and that would most likely mean  dropping back a bit and watching several teams pick up the higher ranking WRs.

 

We will see - I am not going to hold my breath that the Bills get 4 top 100 picks.  I am much more inclined to believe the Bills will move up slightly from 28 to get a WR and move up slightly from 60 to get their player there and then use some additional picks to get a third rounder as their top 3 picks.

 

 

[MarlinTheMagician]

I am hoping somebody wants a QB and like someone like Penix or Nix and they are still there.  That could give us a good trade down opportunity.  I agree with the poster, we need 4 in the top 100, but I think getting to 115 or so for the fourth "top 100" pick could be sufficient.  I also think our 2nd for Diggs can more or less be turned into a third this year (might have to add a very late pick to get it done), and that the later draft capital we have could turn 128 into something within 15 of pick 100 without gutting our draft.  But I trust Beane - so nice to have a quality GM after decades of subpar team administration.

 

[BarleyNY]

7 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

I'd trade down from 28 to 31 for SF's 3rd rd pick (94). 

That would be a big overpay by SF. If they gave that much up they could move up higher than our pick. Or we’d likely have to send back a 4th. 

[papazoid]

while i agree there is a need......it's not getting done thru this years draft alone. the perceived holes should be filled with cheap veterans.

 

we have 5 premium picks between this year and next ( 2024 1st & 2nd and 2025 1st and two 2nd's) we need to keep them all.

 

first priority is WR1 this year.....with 6-7 wr's with a first round grade, it shouldn't be a problem.

 

moving up from #28 just a couple spots only using our extra 4th & 5th's is all i would do.  mortgaging those future premium picks to move up into this years top 10 is foolish.

[MiracleAtRich1393]

trade back into the second round for another day 2, then trade MN 2025 for a ~mid third rounder and you're there pretty easily

[NastyNateSoldiers]

10 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

The more I read and the more mock drafts I simulate on the net, the more I've come to the conclusion that Beane needs to acquire two more top 100 picks in order to meet the team's needs for a starting WR, and good rotational players (and possible 2025 starters) at S, DL and Edge.  

 

When I look at rankings and the mock drafts there is a tier of WRs from 28-45 (Mitchell, McConkey, Worthy, Coleman and Pearsall), a tier of safeties from 65-80 (Bullard, Nubin, Kinchens, Bishops and Bullock), a tier of DL from 50-70 (Jenkins, Orhorhoro, Hall, Smith & Fiske) and a tier of edge players 65-90 (Isaac, Braswell, Booker, Trice & Elliss).  The Bills currently have picks 28 & 60 and then nothing until 128.  There are also some Edge players at approx 28 (Robinson & Kneeland), WRs at 60ish (Legette, Polk, Corley, Wilson).. I also like WR Devontez Walker as a possible 3rd rd steal.

 

There are 4 approaches to get the picks we need. 1) Trade down from 28.  This should garner us a top 100 pick for just moving down a few slots.  2) Trade down from 60.  To get a top 100 pick this way, we'll have to add one of our 4th rd picks.  A deal might look like 60 and 133 for 65 & 94.  3) The 3rd method would be to package our 4th rd picks and additional 5th or 6th rd picks to move back into the late 3rd rd.  Lastly, I can see Beane trading our 2nd or 3rd in 2025 plus a later pick in 2024 to get back into the 2nd or 3rd rd, especially with the Minn 2nd in hand.

 

Depending of how the draft falls on Thursday, I'd trade down from 28 to 31 for SF's 3rd rd pick (94).  The second move I'd make is trading our 3rd rd pick in 2025 and a 4th in 2024 (133) to Atl for pick 79.

 

When I mocked this, I walked away with McConkey at 31, Fiske at 60, Ellis at 79 (we like Utah players after all  ) and Bullock at 94.  I then added Green (CB FSU) at 128, McCaffrey (WR Rice) at 144 and my sleeper Guerendo (RB Louisville) at 160.

 

Thoughts on the strategy(s)?

Good job on your post I not I'm gonna say I disagree with the premise of it. Filling needs threw the draft is for loser organizations if your saying those are the best players available at those spots like maybe Fiske would be one is a great idea. But trading and adding picks to fill needs is a horrible mistake because these players are going to be rookies and u can't expect them to fill needs right away . They need to be developed properly and given the time to prove they can play right away. Taking BPA is still not a for sure thing but it's what the best teams do and in 2yrs most those guys would have huge roles on this team and filling holes that would have been if they weren't drafted. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

11 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

The more I read and the more mock drafts I simulate on the net, the more I've come to the conclusion that Beane needs to acquire two more top 100 picks in order to meet the team's needs for a starting WR, and good rotational players (and possible 2025 starters) at S, DL and Edge.  

 

When I look at rankings and the mock drafts there is a tier of WRs from 28-45 (Mitchell, McConkey, Worthy, Coleman and Pearsall), a tier of safeties from 65-80 (Bullard, Nubin, Kinchens, Bishops and Bullock), a tier of DL from 50-70 (Jenkins, Orhorhoro, Hall, Smith & Fiske) and a tier of edge players 65-90 (Isaac, Braswell, Booker, Trice & Elliss).  The Bills currently have picks 28 & 60 and then nothing until 128.  There are also some Edge players at approx 28 (Robinson & Kneeland), WRs at 60ish (Legette, Polk, Corley, Wilson).. I also like WR Devontez Walker as a possible 3rd rd steal.

 

There are 4 approaches to get the picks we need. 1) Trade down from 28.  This should garner us a top 100 pick for just moving down a few slots.  2) Trade down from 60.  To get a top 100 pick this way, we'll have to add one of our 4th rd picks.  A deal might look like 60 and 133 for 65 & 94.  3) The 3rd method would be to package our 4th rd picks and additional 5th or 6th rd picks to move back into the late 3rd rd.  Lastly, I can see Beane trading our 2nd or 3rd in 2025 plus a later pick in 2024 to get back into the 2nd or 3rd rd, especially with the Minn 2nd in hand.

 

Depending of how the draft falls on Thursday, I'd trade down from 28 to 31 for SF's 3rd rd pick (94).  The second move I'd make is trading our 3rd rd pick in 2025 and a 4th in 2024 (133) to Atl for pick 79.

 

When I mocked this, I walked away with McConkey at 31, Fiske at 60, Ellis at 79 (we like Utah players after all  ) and Bullock at 94.  I then added Green (CB FSU) at 128, McCaffrey (WR Rice) at 144 and my sleeper Guerendo (RB Louisville) at 160.

 

Thoughts on the strategy(s)?

 

It all depends what we do on Thursday I think.  If we move up, then i don't think there's really a path to getting 4 picks in the first 100.  If we stand pat, i think 2025 picks are very much in play.  If we move down, i hope we get enough to get 4 guys in that first 100 picks to be able to keep all of our 2025 picks. 

 

The projected (i'll only believe it if they're literally in our hands) 4th and 5th round comp picks look ok for 2025 if that factors in at all on what draft picks may be in play in any trade scenarios.  It looks right now like 1-2-2-3-4-4-5-6-6.  9 picks, with 6 in the first 4 rounds.  

 

https://overthecap.com/compensatory-picks

[Buffalo03]

11 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

Carolina seems to want Legette. 
 

Maybe they give us 33 and 65 for 28, 128, and a 3rd next year.  Not sure that works but if they really want Legette….  
 

We would have 

 

33

60

65

 

I’d think we could go Ladd Mitchell Worthy or Franklin at 33

 

BPA there on out.   
 

 

 

I think if Beane really wants to move up that first round pick in 2025 is on the table but only for The top 3 WRs and Thomas.  Depends.  

Tell me more about Ladd Mitchell Worthy. Can he play?

[Big Blitz]

36 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said:

Tell me more about Ladd Mitchell Worthy. Can he play?

 

Let’s talk about commas and proper use of them.  Or, when you just don’t care lol.  

[Process]

Filling depth needs at DT and S with 4th round picks is fine. 

 

We need starters at DE and WR and have two picks in the top 60 for that. 

 

We don't need to add anything, just need to hit on our draft picks. 

[JESSEFEFFER]

12 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

The more I read and the more mock drafts I simulate on the net, the more I've come to the conclusion that Beane needs to acquire two more top 100 picks in order to meet the team's needs for a starting WR, and good rotational players (and possible 2025 starters) at S, DL and Edge.  

 

When I look at rankings and the mock drafts there is a tier of WRs from 28-45 (Mitchell, McConkey, Worthy, Coleman and Pearsall), a tier of safeties from 65-80 (Bullard, Nubin, Kinchens, Bishops and Bullock), a tier of DL from 50-70 (Jenkins, Orhorhoro, Hall, Smith & Fiske) and a tier of edge players 65-90 (Isaac, Braswell, Booker, Trice & Elliss).  The Bills currently have picks 28 & 60 and then nothing until 128.  There are also some Edge players at approx 28 (Robinson & Kneeland), WRs at 60ish (Legette, Polk, Corley, Wilson).. I also like WR Devontez Walker as a possible 3rd rd steal.

 

There are 4 approaches to get the picks we need. 1) Trade down from 28.  This should garner us a top 100 pick for just moving down a few slots.  2) Trade down from 60.  To get a top 100 pick this way, we'll have to add one of our 4th rd picks.  A deal might look like 60 and 133 for 65 & 94.  3) The 3rd method would be to package our 4th rd picks and additional 5th or 6th rd picks to move back into the late 3rd rd.  Lastly, I can see Beane trading our 2nd or 3rd in 2025 plus a later pick in 2024 to get back into the 2nd or 3rd rd, especially with the Minn 2nd in hand.

 

Depending of how the draft falls on Thursday, I'd trade down from 28 to 31 for SF's 3rd rd pick (94).  The second move I'd make is trading our 3rd rd pick in 2025 and a 4th in 2024 (133) to Atl for pick 79.

 

When I mocked this, I walked away with McConkey at 31, Fiske at 60, Ellis at 79 (we like Utah players after all  ) and Bullock at 94.  I then added Green (CB FSU) at 128, McCaffrey (WR Rice) at 144 and my sleeper Guerendo (RB Louisville) at 160.

 

Thoughts on the strategy(s)?

The mock drafts I have liked the most involved a trade back and a WR double dip.  Four picks in the top 100 seems compatible with those ideas.  Greg Tompsett of Cover1 used the analogy of needing to hit a bullseye and it being better to have more premium darts rather than taking a step or two closer to the board but only having one.  The Bills had many darts in the 1985 draft and the 4th round, 2nd WR they drafted made the H-o-F.

 

 

 

 

 

I also can't see the Bills staying put at 28.  Every other team knows the Bills have that glaring need and those having the same need have every incentive to jump in front of the Bills and get any valued talent that might have fallen there. 

[GASabresIUFan]

8 hours ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

Filling needs threw the draft is for loser organizations if your saying those are the best players available at those spots like maybe Fiske would be one is a great idea.

I don’t think BPA exists early in an NFL draft.  Does anyone really think the 3 QBs are the best players in this draft?  Bowers and Harrison Jr are probably the best two players in this draft.  The Bills aren’t drafting a LB, QB, TE or RB at 28 or 60 regardless of who is available.  It seems to me that teams are looking for instant contributors in the first three rounds.  Take the Bills draft last year when they went after their two areas of biggest need at TE and OG in the first two rounds.  
 

Where Beane’s list comes into play is who is available at 28 that fills one of his needs at Edge, WR or DT.  If we miss a WR at 28, then I can almost guarantee we take one at 60.  
 

 

Edited April 23 by GASabresIUFan

[JESSEFEFFER]

On 4/23/2024 at 12:24 AM, GASabresIUFan said:

The more I read and the more mock drafts I simulate on the net, the more I've come to the conclusion that Beane needs to acquire two more top 100 picks in order to meet the team's needs for a starting WR, and good rotational players (and possible 2025 starters) at S, DL and Edge.  

 

When I look at rankings and the mock drafts there is a tier of WRs from 28-45 (Mitchell, McConkey, Worthy, Coleman and Pearsall), a tier of safeties from 65-80 (Bullard, Nubin, Kinchens, Bishops and Bullock), a tier of DL from 50-70 (Jenkins, Orhorhoro, Hall, Smith & Fiske) and a tier of edge players 65-90 (Isaac, Braswell, Booker, Trice & Elliss).  The Bills currently have picks 28 & 60 and then nothing until 128.  There are also some Edge players at approx 28 (Robinson & Kneeland), WRs at 60ish (Legette, Polk, Corley, Wilson).. I also like WR Devontez Walker as a possible 3rd rd steal.

 

There are 4 approaches to get the picks we need. 1) Trade down from 28.  This should garner us a top 100 pick for just moving down a few slots.  2) Trade down from 60.  To get a top 100 pick this way, we'll have to add one of our 4th rd picks.  A deal might look like 60 and 133 for 65 & 94.  3) The 3rd method would be to package our 4th rd picks and additional 5th or 6th rd picks to move back into the late 3rd rd.  Lastly, I can see Beane trading our 2nd or 3rd in 2025 plus a later pick in 2024 to get back into the 2nd or 3rd rd, especially with the Minn 2nd in hand.

 

Depending of how the draft falls on Thursday, I'd trade down from 28 to 31 for SF's 3rd rd pick (94).  The second move I'd make is trading our 3rd rd pick in 2025 and a 4th in 2024 (133) to Atl for pick 79.

 

When I mocked this, I walked away with McConkey at 31, Fiske at 60, Ellis at 79 (we like Utah players after all  ) and Bullock at 94.  I then added Green (CB FSU) at 128, McCaffrey (WR Rice) at 144 and my sleeper Guerendo (RB Louisville) at 160.

 

Thoughts on the strategy(s)?

That is one top 100 pick acquired and one to go,  There's plenty of 4th and 5th round capital to get the next one and have a total of 4 in the top 100.  Or maybe some team will overpay for #33 after examining their board overnight.  Just sayin'.

[GASabresIUFan]

On 4/23/2024 at 12:24 AM, GASabresIUFan said:

Depending of how the draft falls on Thursday, I'd trade down from 28 to 31 for SF's 3rd rd pick (94).

 

14 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

That is one top 100 pick acquired and one to go,  There's plenty of 4th and 5th round capital to get the next one and have a total of 4 in the top 100.  Or maybe some team will overpay for #33 after examining their board overnight.  Just sayin'.

I’m a little surprised how much of my little prediction is coming true.  I agree that with 6 picks between 128 & 163, the Bills now have the ammo to add another top 100 pick.  I like that McConkey and Mitchell are still on the board.  When I mocked this scenario McConkey was the guy, but I’d take Mitchell at 33rd.  I’m not sure I’d keep moving down at this point. I doubt Beane makes 11 selections in this draft.  The deal I’d like to see now is a 3rd in 2025 plus two later picks in 2024 for mid 3rd in 2024.  

[just1hugheser]

Nice Work, excellent thread.

Nobody is worried worthy turns into a poor man's Tyreek?  I mean all he has to to is not be Kadarius Toney and he should thrive with MaHomes.

[AmishRifle]

@GASabresIUFan good job!  It will be interesting to see what the Big Baller does to start Day 2.  Personally, I stand pat and make my pick.

[JESSEFEFFER]

I think there is a great chance that they trade out of #33.  The Bills have almost 9 more hours to field calls from teams that see a prospect there that they covet and there will be enough interest to create a sellers market.  That's enough interest and time for someone to make the Bills an offer that they can't refuse and the Bills get the 4th "Top 100" pick that we've been discussing.  Maybe with Carolina again, give them #33 and #204 for #39 and and #101.  A trade that's both "close enough" to the Top 100 goal and ironic.