Alphamock Draft: **UPDATE** Final v3.0 posted on Page 4

[MasterStrategist]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Thanks and it’s what I’ve heard in regards to Ravens and Morgan as well. 
 

I agree Mims could go 20 or 24 too, I had the hardest time placing him as he is in play in a few spots.  I still think JPJ just feels like a Steelers guy though and a big need for them and Dallas badly needs to add some play making and speed too.  So I have this feeling they will fall in love with Worthy opposite Lamb and look to address OL later.  But would not surprise me at all if they end up going OL, and it’s what I would do if I was Dallas.

My Pitt media insider is saying Mims or potential trade back for Steelers.  He's not perfect, but right more often than not.  JPJ if trade back.

 

He also mentioned Rd2 focus for Steelers is WR, hearing Roman Wilson or Pearsall.

[LeGOATski]

5 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

1. 6 QB's going top 13 - This is the one thing that is sticking out to me the most as the questionable.  Will both Nix and Penix go back to back 12 and 13?  Well, to be honest, I think Penix going 13 may come down to whether or not Denver takes Nix at 12.  Vikings are looming in this mock at 23 where they could easily take Penix if they wanted after missing out on moving up for McCarthy as I have them in this mock.  So, if that happens, then Bo going 12 puts a lot of pressure on Raiders to take Penix sooner rather than later by trying to trade back up into the first.  If Denver passes on a QB at 12, then I am not sure the Raiders feel as much pressure to take Penix at 13.  

• • If Vikings end up being the one to trade up for McCarthy then I doubt Nix and Penix go back to back as I think the Raiders would feel more comfortable looking to trade back in towards the end of round 1 for Penix with Vikings out of the way at 23 and Denver reportedly preferring Nix. 

Yeah, that's too crazy to me. This QB class isn't great enough for that. Are there really that many teams who are so desperate? Most of these guys are gonna bust...hard. IMO Daniels shouldn't even be a first rounder. But that's probably just my ASU fan bias coming out.

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

Yeah, that's too crazy to me. This QB class isn't great enough for that. Are there really that many teams who are so desperate? Most of these guys are gonna bust...hard. IMO Daniels shouldn't even be a first rounder. But that's probably just my ASU fan bias coming out.

 

Thats the sad part...there are that many teams.  Chicago, Washington, and Patriots are the first 3 picks and all badly need a QB.  Giants seem to be ready for a change over Daniel Jones as they have been researching the QB's hard.  Vikings at 11 only have Sam Darnold and need one.  Broncos at 12 badly need one.  And Raiders do as well at 13.  That is 7 very QB needy teams in the first 13 picks.  

 

So not a lock that 6 go, but 4 for sure are but 5 or 6 is quite possible.

[Einstein]

7 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Jaguars - Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama:  My heart wants to write *TRADE* here and input Buffalo Bills name to take Thomas

 

The number of holes punched into drywall throughout western new york if Beane did this…

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

My Pitt media insider is saying Mims or potential trade back for Steelers.  He's not perfect, but right more often than not.  JPJ if trade back.

 

He also mentioned Rd2 focus for Steelers is WR, hearing Roman Wilson or Pearsall.

 

Thanks that is good to know.  I thought of Mims there too as I saw some buzz on him, I just leaned JPJ because I thought they needed a center more and he seemed like a Steelers type of player.  But if I do a v3.0 I will maybe look at putting Mims in there as I was kind of back and forth on a few spots for him on where he might go.  

 

The place I wanted to mock Mims too was Dallas but I just have a feeling they are going to go Worthy as they need to add some firepower to that offense and Worthy getting to stay in Texas and playing in a dome opposite Lamb just feels like a fit.  

[Alphadawg7]

10 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

The number of holes punched into drywall throughout western new york if Beane did this…

 

Why, many people want us to trade up for Thomas?  Personally, I don't want us to if it costs us a first, nor do I think Beane will if does either.  Which is why I didn't have us taking him there.  

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Well done. Excellent analysis. 

 

One question, do you think McCarthy is a top 5 QB talent? Or are you just saying he will get picked there as an extreme over reach. This guy averaged 22 passes pee game in college. He is a game manager with good accuracy. Ok but not elite size. Ok but not very good speed.  Decent arm.

 

Just curious if you think he is a top 5 talent?

[DrDawkinstein]

My only nitpick is, if the board does fall like this, I think the Chiefs end up with Franklin or McConky over Polk.

 

Out of those 3, I'd be happiest if the Chiefs went with Polk.

9 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Thats the sad part...there are that many teams.  Chicago, Washington, and Patriots are the first 3 picks and all badly need a QB.  Giants seem to be ready for a change over Daniel Jones as they have been researching the QB's hard.  Vikings at 11 only have Sam Darnold and need one.  Broncos at 12 badly need one.  And Raiders do as well at 13.  That is 7 very QB needy teams in the first 13 picks.  

 

So not a lock that 6 go, but 4 for sure are but 5 or 6 is quite possible.

 

That's why if I'm the Giants, I'm looking to trade out of that spot and pick up an extra 1st for next year.

 

They're stuck with Jones this year no matter what. Trade down, use picks to build the roster around the QB. Then use that extra 1st to maneuver around next year to get a QB.

 

There are just soooo many teams taking QBs this year, and the pool is not nearly as deep as those folks are hoping.

Edited April 22 by DrDawkinstein

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Well done. Excellent analysis. 

 

One question, do you think McCarthy is a top 5 QB talent? Or are you just saying he will get picked there as an extreme over reach. This guy averaged 22 passes pee game in college. He is a game manager with good accuracy. Ok but not elite size. Ok but not very good speed.  Decent arm.

 

Just curious if you think he is a top 5 talent?

 

Nope I don't. I am still finishing him up (want to try and post my QB thread tonight all being well) but I have a 3rd round grade. But there are so many team with NOTHING at Quarterback. Of the six teams most commonly mocked to take a guy:

 

Chicago, Washington, New England, Minnesota, Denver, Vegas..... the two best Quarterbacks currently on those rosters are Brissett and Minshew. They are the only two teams of those six (Pats and Raiders) who you can even make the argument they have a bridge guy. So teams are going to reach. Because they have zero alternative. 

[DrDawkinstein]

20 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Nope I don't. I am still finishing him up (want to try and post my QB thread tonight all being well) but I have a 3rd round grade. But there are so many team with NOTHING at Quarterback. Of the six teams most commonly mocked to take a guy:

 

Chicago, Washington, New England, Minnesota, Denver, Vegas..... the two best Quarterbacks currently on those rosters are Brissett and Minshew. They are the only two teams of those six (Pats and Raiders) who you can even make the argument they have a bridge guy. So teams are going to reach. Because they have zero alternative. 

 

Not only do I agree with that McCarthy assessment, I also want to note I have Bo Nix behind him as well.

 

There's going to be a LOT of reaching for QBs if the draft plays out like all the experts mock.

[dave mcbride]

21 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Nope I don't. I am still finishing him up (want to try and post my QB thread tonight all being well) but I have a 3rd round grade. But there are so many team with NOTHING at Quarterback. Of the six teams most commonly mocked to take a guy:

 

Chicago, Washington, New England, Minnesota, Denver, Vegas..... the two best Quarterbacks currently on those rosters are Brissett and Minshew. They are the only two teams of those six (Pats and Raiders) who you can even make the argument they have a bridge guy. So teams are going to reach. Because they have zero alternative. 

The thing I keep reading about McCarthy is that he was off-the-charts good on third down (the money down): https://www.footballscout365.com/post/2024-nfl-draft-measuring-quarterback-clutch-ability-using-points-earned-per-play-on-3rd-and-4th-dow. NFL teams apparently really care about that stat (and rightly so, I'd argue). He also apparently had a ridiculously good pro day. 

[BuffaloRebound]

I think Bowers is a steal for anybody outside the top 5 and it wouldn’t surprise me if he goes before at least 1 of the big 3 WR’s 

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, BuffaloRebound said:

I think Bowers is a steal for anybody outside the top 5 and it wouldn’t surprise me if he goes before at least 1 of the big 3 WR’s 

I think the Jets would be crazy not to take him. They signed Mike Williams and already have Garrett Wilson, and Bowers would put them over the top. 

[Coach Tuesday]

7 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

The thing I keep reading about McCarthy is that he was off-the-charts good on third down (the money down): https://www.footballscout365.com/post/2024-nfl-draft-measuring-quarterback-clutch-ability-using-points-earned-per-play-on-3rd-and-4th-dow. NFL teams apparently really care about that stat (and rightly so, I'd argue). He also apparently had a ridiculously good pro day. 

 

I just can't get past that Penn State game.  I get that he was hurt but they were hiding him - they would not let him throw the ball.  

[BuffaloRebound]

9 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I think the Jets would be crazy not to take him. They signed Mike Williams and already have Garrett Wilson, and Bowers would put them over the top. 

I don’t think he lasts that long.  I could see the Chargers taking him at 5 if Harrison goes at 4.  Giants should take him at 6, same with Titans at 7.  If he makes it to 8, then I could see Colts trading up with Atlanta.  Same with Bears at 9.  

[dave mcbride]

13 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

I just can't get past that Penn State game.  I get that he was hurt but they were hiding him - they would not let him throw the ball.  

It's just one game, though. He had a lot of good games. Plus Michigan was built to run the ball. 

[Coach Tuesday]

7 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

It's just one game, though. He had a lot of good games. Plus Michigan was built to run the ball. 

 

I know it and you're right.  But still... that was a game that was there for the taking (they pulled away late) and they would not let him throw the ball.  How can he be a top five pick in that scenario?  It would be unprecedented.  But I guess maybe he was just hurt and they were trying to power through it.

[GunnerBill]

43 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

The thing I keep reading about McCarthy is that he was off-the-charts good on third down (the money down): https://www.footballscout365.com/post/2024-nfl-draft-measuring-quarterback-clutch-ability-using-points-earned-per-play-on-3rd-and-4th-dow. NFL teams apparently really care about that stat (and rightly so, I'd argue). He also apparently had a ridiculously good pro day. 

 

He's had a great process and it is fair the 3rd down stat. I think he reminds me a bit of Joe Flacco in that I think strong running game and then ask him to make the odd throw off of play action or third and medium and he can have some success. I don't think he has Flacco's arm and it is hard to know whether he has the ability Joe had to hit to the big play when it was needed because he was just not asked to. Maybe he can. But it isn't there on tape.

[eee1776]

Thanks for doing all that. Your picks are as good as all the other talking heads(people who gey paid for doing there mocks.) 

[dave mcbride]

18 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He's had a great process and it is fair the 3rd down stat. I think he reminds me a bit of Joe Flacco in that I think strong running game and then ask him to make the odd throw off of play action or third and medium and he can have some success. I don't think he has Flacco's arm and it is hard to know whether he has the ability Joe had to hit to the big play when it was needed because he was just not asked to. Maybe he can. But it isn't there on tape.

Interesting comp with Flacco. I think McCarthy is significantly more mobile than Flacco ever was. Having said that, Flacco in retrospect should have been a top five pick in this draft and maybe even second overall after Matt Ryan: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2008/draft.htm. He's had a very good career overall.