Will we be in Super Bowl contention this year?

[Kirby Jackson]

10 minutes ago, Rubes said:

 

I won't argue that our receiver room is, right now, worse than it was last year. At the same time, I'll still argue that Diggs and Davis didn't provide a whole lot down the stretch, and we still did pretty good on offense. Sure, some of that is from defenses protecting against Diggs and Davis and allowing the others more freedom, but my opinion is that the magnitude of this is probably overblown. I'm excited to see what Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid, Knox, Cook, and any other new WRs will do with Allen and Brady behind them. Allen, after all, is the kind of generational player who can elevate those around him, and will always keep us in games.

 

We lack anything like that on defense. The three things that stand out for me with our defense going into next year are:

1. Once Floyd faded, we were unable to generate any kind of pass rush at all. Right now, that should be a pretty good view of what it will look like next year. Without Floyd, there's no reason to believe we are improved in that area, unless you're in the minority of people who believe in Miller's return to form. Pass rush is a huge question mark next year.
2. The loss of Poyer and (likely) Hyde means we lose the leadership and execution in the defensive backfield. Sure, they may have declined physically, but we're also losing their ability to recognize offenses, ensure the DBs are in the right call, and they all have the right assignments. Can our current starting safeties do that? Perhaps, but it's certainly reasonable to question whether they can do it as well as Poyer/Hyde and not lead to misalignments/missed assignments/blown coverages. The defensive backfield is another big question mark.
3. Linebacker health. Bernard was a revelation last year, but we also saw that we are very dependent on at least one being healthy. Can they both make it through (most of) a season? There's a track record there that concerns me, especially when we have to go up against teams like KC and Baltimore with strong offenses in order to be a true Super Bowl contender.

Again, the original question was about being a Super Bowl contender. I think once you get to the playoffs, it's our defensive struggles that have and will dictate how far we go. Josh can do everything in his power to will us to victory, but it's the defense keeping us from the big game. I don't see the defense getting any better next year and, if anything, they could be a notch worse—unless Miller returns to form and one or two of these new additions surprises us.

 

All fair points Rubes!! Appreciate you sharing your logic 🍻

[loveorhatembillsfan4life]

I agree that  With Allen,  we should always be in the conservation.. but that advantage isn’t such a big gap when having to go through Mahomes, Burrow, Lamar and a handful of upcoming Qb. 
 

We shouldn’t be minimizing Allen’s talents with only Receivers who are great from 10 yards are less. I think post playoffs last season one commentator made a comment about that not being the type of offense to run with Josh.. We need to push the boundary past that 10 yards and  I hope we find that. 

 

[QLBillsFan]

5 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Not sure what ANYTHING that I said has to do with Diggs other than he accounted for 160 targets last year? That’s not an opinion. That’s what happened.

 

As an Ohio State fan, I’ve seen hundreds of Curtis Samuel’s snaps. I’ve probably seen as much of him as just about anyone on this message board (excluding @Willyville Guy & @YoloinOhio) . He is a converted running back. He’s a strong playmaker. He’s a guy that will get carries, catch screens and run some routes. They added Samuel because he’s better with the ball in his hands than the guys that had or currently have. He’s a weapon. He’s not, and never has been, a boundary WR. He will line up there some but that’s not the player that they signed. He’s the guy that’s going to catch screen/slants and get carries. He will run some vertical routes as well. He could be quite impactful with the new kickoff rules. I love the guy as a player. If you think that he’s different than what I described it’s because one of us doesn’t know him very well. 
 

You just named 3 guys that are best within 10 yards of the LOS. That’s the reason that WR is such a high priority!! They are WAY too easy to defend at the moment because they’re missing 1/2 of the route tree and multiple skill sets. 

I have the Bills needing 620 targets this year. I’ve tweaked this a few times since Diggs left. Here’s how I have it breaking down:

 

WR1 - 130

wr2 (2nd guy drafted) - 80

kincaid - 110

Shakir - 90

Samuel - 75 (another 55 carries)

Cook - 50

Knox - 40

Hollins - 30

everyone else - 15

 

This varies a little depending on the names up top. If the top guy is one of the top 3 or McConkey I feel this is about right. If it’s anyone else it goes down a little with the majority of those targets shifting to the 2nd WR drafted and also Cook (WR2 holds especially true if that’s someone like Pearsall).

 

You were pretty fired up with my thoughts on the WR position. Clearly you don’t think that it’s that big of a need. How do you see the targets being divided? Please be specific. 
 

 

List all of the ones that you have worse? Even if you have the Chargers and/or Giants they each may have a new number 1, WAY better than anyone on the Bills roster, by about 9:00 Thursday. The Bills are a bottom 3 WR room. 

I’m not particularly fired up at all. I in no way said the Bills don’t need another receiver. My point is they will either draft one fairly early or trade for one. In terms of catches assuming 390 this year vs 385 last year. Kincaid/Shakir 80, Samuel 60, rookie/fa 50, cook/knox 40, Hollins 20, TJ/Morris 10. That to me is not the 3rd worst WR room, but if you think so it’s fine. Diggs is gone and many of his targets were forced and put Josh in a difficult position. That is exactly how I see it you may differ. A “gadget guy”who catches 60 passes is fine with me. I’m glad you have in-depth knowledge of his capabilities. Obviously they are going to get a guy for the outside. Bolding is yelling so in fact you are fired up not me. Have a great day and let’s see what the Bills look like in the summer. 

[Kirby Jackson]

11 minutes ago, QLBillsFan said:

I’m not particularly fired up at all. I in no way said the Bills don’t need another receiver. My point is they will either draft one fairly early or trade for one. In terms of catches assuming 390 this year vs 385 last year. Kincaid/Shakir 80, Samuel 60, rookie/fa 50, cook/knox 40, Hollins 20, TJ/Morris 10. That to me is not the 3rd worst WR room, but if you think so it’s fine. Diggs is gone and many of his targets were forced and put Josh in a difficult position. That is exactly how I see it you may differ. A “gadget guy”who catches 60 passes is fine with me. I’m glad you have in-depth knowledge of his capabilities. Obviously they are going to get a guy for the outside. Bolding is yelling so in fact you are fired up not me. Have a great day and let’s see what the Bills look like in the summer. 

Which WR rooms are worse than the Bills? That does not include Kincaid or Cook. Which teams have worse WRs than the Bills?

[QLBillsFan]

5 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Which WR rooms are worse than the Bills? That does not include Kincaid or Cook. Which teams have worse WRs than the Bills?

So I answered the targets/catches. The WR room is fine. You give zero credence to Diggs attitude impacting targets and what’s best for the team. With an outside WR on the roster post draft and end of FA this group will be fine. Let’s have the WR room chat at mid season. I am confident Shakir is going to breakout. Your favorite buckeye Samuel will gadget effectively and the outside WR will provide room that Davis/Diggs didn’t in the deep game. 

The TE/RB are an important component of the overall passing game would you agree? Kincaid and Cook will be even more integral to the passing game as they are eligible. Will Diggs be missed in some ways? Sure. But this group including yet to be added outside WR will be good. And allow the Brady/Allen O to feature the open guy-not just one guy. We can agree to disagree.

[Kirby Jackson]

3 minutes ago, QLBillsFan said:

So I answered the targets/catches. The WR room is fine. You give zero credence to Diggs attitude impacting targets and what’s best for the team. With an outside WR on the roster post draft and end of FA this group will be fine. Let’s have the WR room chat at mid season. I am confident Shakir is going to breakout. Your favorite buckeye Samuel will gadget effectively and the outside WR will provide room that Davis/Diggs didn’t in the deep game. 

The TE/RB are an important component of the overall passing game would you agree? Kincaid and Cook will be even more integral to the passing game as they are eligible. Will Diggs be missed in some ways? Sure. But this group including yet to be added outside WR will be good. And allow the Brady/Allen O to feature the open guy-not just one guy. We can agree to disagree.

So I said bottom 3 WR room and it felt like you disagreed. If you are in agreement that they are a bottom 3 WR group, we are on the same page. Obviously that speaks to how big of a need it is.

[RyanC883]

On 4/20/2024 at 9:38 AM, Kirby Jackson said:

I find this baffling. Help me understand. The Bills have plugged in a variety of guys over the McDermott era and have been more or less the same. They’ve played extended periods without Poyer, Milano, Tre, Von, Hyde, etc… The scheme has had them more or less the same defense regardless of who is out there. They play a conservative zone where they try to avoid big plays and keep the game close. Why do we think, with most of the same guys (minus Poyer, Floyd & Hyde plus Milano) that they will be significantly different? Sean McDermott’s defenses are always about the same. Explain why I should be scared? If the answer is “pass rush” they may need to generate more with the blitz but outside of Floyd (who disappeared late in the year) what’s changed? 
 

The offense has to replace their number 1 and number 2 WRs from last year (not to mention their 4th & 5th). Those 2 guys account for like 250 targets. They added a special teamer and a gadget guy. Why are we comfortable that it’ll work with no boundary WRs on the roster except Shorter and Hollins? The Bills still need 200ish targets from guys not on the roster. It’ll be so easy to defend them right now with no outside threats. There is a Grand Canyon-sized chasm between the need for offense vs. the need for defense right now.

Help me understand how you’re comfortable with the offense but not the defense?

 

great points.  Having Milano and Bernard back is a huge positive that outweighs Poyer and Hyde departures.  Plus a rookie safety will likely be drafted who can fill in (I’m thinking a U Miami safety). 

[QLBillsFan]

Just now, Kirby Jackson said:

So I said bottom 3 WR room and it felt like you disagreed. If you are in agreement that they are a bottom 3 WR group, we are on the same page. Obviously that speaks to how big of a need it is.

I did not agree to that. I have said they need to add an outside WR. That’s your conclusion. I disagree based on the development of Shakir that you don’t see. I am not going to rank any WR room until rosters are set. That’s exactly what BB said. Again we can revisit in November and if the Bills a bottom 3 WR room I will agree with your assessment. Until then I will let it play out. 

[SoTier]

3 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

None of those guys are keeping DCs awake at night, that's just homerism. Kincaid MIGHT after this season, but not now.

 

I don't think that the Bills need to have a roster full of elite offensive players who "keep DCs awake at night".   If they give Allen a variety of good/excellent options in both the passing and running game, Allen will give every DC he faces nightmares.   If the Bills were going to go for "elite" players, they might do better to add elite OLers than elite skill players.   I'm not arguing for getting by with JAGs on offense but the reality is that a team that's paying a prime franchise QB has limited options for adding/keeping difference making players past their rookie contracts so a lot of their offensive players are going to be on a level of Kincaid and Cook.

 

I do think that the Bills absolutely need to find a couple of elite players on the defensive side, especially on the DL.   The Bills have had some bad luck with defensive injuries the last couple of seasons.   Miller, White, and Milano might have qualified as elite if not for injury.   Ed Oliver came into his own last season, and hopefully the Bills find a DE to take advantage of his good play inside to create more QB pressures.

 

 

Edited April 21 by SoTier

[QLBillsFan]

6 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Name one player on offense or defense not named Josh Allen that any OC or DC on opposing teams is concerned about.

 

This roster is completely devoid of top tier talent. 

 

People need to wrap their head around the idea of 9 wins being close to this team's ceiling.

Cook Shakir Kincaid 

[Thrivefourfive]

Don’t think so. The offense has a major hole to fill. Feeling like one step forward, two steps back right now. Hope that changes on draft day 1. The defense isn’t any better. The kicker STINKS. I’m not sure how we’re better next next than last, when we had a shot to beat KC.

[Kirby Jackson]

40 minutes ago, QLBillsFan said:

I did not agree to that. I have said they need to add an outside WR. That’s your conclusion. I disagree based on the development of Shakir that you don’t see. I am not going to rank any WR room until rosters are set. That’s exactly what BB said. Again we can revisit in November and if the Bills a bottom 3 WR room I will agree with your assessment. Until then I will let it play out. 

If you don’t agree, I’ll ask yet again, “who has worse WRs than the Bills AS OF RIGHT NOW?” It’s a simple question. 
 

Also, who said that I don’t agree that Shakir has developed? He was really good but with minimal attention and minimal targets. I loved what I saw. We will see how it translates with attention and volume. The point remains the only teams with as bad of a WR room as the Bills are the Pats, Giants and Chargers. 2 of those teams MIGHT add Harrison/Nabers/Odunze. 

Edited April 21 by Kirby Jackson

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

38 minutes ago, QLBillsFan said:

Cook Shakir Kincaid 

Homerism on cook and shakir, honestly. I think shakir can be good, but yes no #1. Kincaid MAY become that guy but it's not a certainty.

[QLBillsFan]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

If you don’t agree, I’ll ask yet again, “who has worse WRs than the Bills?” It’s a simple question. 

Please with the patronizing. As you whined early in this board. The Bills room has upside and you don’t agree. I don’t care man. Come back with your argument after the season is playing out. I know it’s shocking but they have a plan that you may not be aware of.
 

And talent that is being developed. They are ahead of NE, AZ, CAR, LAC, similar to several other either old or w limited depth Titans, WA. You’re brilliant yes they need an outside WR. Then they will have Shakir, Samuel, new WR putting them in middle of pack. Add in TE, RB they have 5 viable candidates to catch the ball from a top 5 QB. Who can throw without concern as to who gets the ball. Simple response. 

[Aussie Joe]

12 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

I'm not pessimistic - I'm realistic. If we had Roquan Smith, TJ Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick and AJ Brown, I'd have us penciled in as favorites. Unfortunately we don't have a receiver that's ever hit 1k yards, don't have a pass rushers that's ever hit double digit sacks (besides the empty husk of Von miller), and we easily have the worst safety duo in the league right now.

History has been on my side every year for 3 straight. Let's re-check the tally at the end of this season and see how far blind optimism gets you.

You are pessimistic… they haven’t even been through the draft yet …

 

Also … what do you mean “the last three years ? You trying to say they weren’t a SB contender over that period ?

 

 

Edited April 21 by Aussie Joe

[QLBillsFan]

1 minute ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Homerism on cook and shakir, honestly. I think shakir can be good, but yes no #1. Kincaid MAY become that guy but it's not a certainty.

Sure so Cook and Kincaid are not top 10 at respective positions?? Possible he Shakir wont  be but he was #1 in % of targets to catches with essentially a half season of snaps. Guys who are always open and catch the ball are a threat. But you could be right. The Bills don’t have a Dominant must contain pass receiver that is true. 

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, QLBillsFan said:

Please with the patronizing. As you whined early in this board. The Bills room has upside and you don’t agree. I don’t care man. Come back with your argument after the season is playing out. I know it’s shocking but they have a plan that you may not be aware of.
 

And talent that is being developed. They are ahead of NE, AZ, CAR, LAC, similar to several other either old or w limited depth Titans, WA. You’re brilliant yes they need an outside WR. Then they will have Shakir, Samuel, new WR putting them in middle of pack. Add in TE, RB they have 5 viable candidates to catch the ball from a top 5 QB. Who can throw without concern as to who gets the ball. Simple response. 

When did I say that they don’t have “upside?” Please share that post. Otherwise, you’re making stuff up. They could be better than they have been but that is ALL speculation. 
 

Their floor is also REALLY low. What happens if Shakir can’t handle volume? What if Shorter never makes the team? What if Samuel is exactly the guy that I said? 
 

The Bills, today, have a bottom 3 WR room. I appreciate you listing some of the teams in their tier. I think, currently the Giants are slightly better and the Pats are with Bourne, Juju, Osborn and Douglas. Neither is good but both are better. These are also the teams adding MHJ/Nabers/Odunze who are all better than every single WR on all 4 of those teams. 

[JaCrispy]

No, I don’t feel we will be as good this year as in previous years…

 

But I don’t necessarily don’t think that’s a bad thing…We are in a mini rebuild, despite what the organization might say…And I feel this is a 2 year rebuild …👍

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

3 minutes ago, QLBillsFan said:

Sure so Cook and Kincaid are not top 10 at respective positions?? Possible he Shakir wont  be but he was #1 in % of targets to catches with essentially a half season of snaps. Guys who are always open and catch the ball are a threat. But you could be right. The Bills don’t have a Dominant must contain pass receiver that is true. 

Again I say Kincaid could become a guy that gives DCs fits, but he's gotta become more than an intermediate receiver and show some big play ability.

[QLBillsFan]

1 minute ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Again I say Kincaid could become a guy that gives DCs fits, but he's gotta become more than an intermediate receiver and show some big play ability.

Yes and score TDs.. must improve on that to be a serious threat.