Will we be in Super Bowl contention this year?

[Rubes]

7 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I find this baffling. Help me understand. The Bills have plugged in a variety of guys over the McDermott era and have been more or less the same. They’ve played extended periods without Poyer, Milano, Tre, Von, Hyde, etc… The scheme has had them more or less the same defense regardless of who is out there. They play a conservative zone where they try to avoid big plays and keep the game close. Why do we think, with most of the same guys (minus Poyer, Floyd & Hyde plus Milano) that they will be significantly different? Sean McDermott’s defenses are always about the same. Explain why I should be scared? If the answer is “pass rush” they may need to generate more with the blitz but outside of Floyd (who disappeared late in the year) what’s changed? 
 

The offense has to replace their number 1 and number 2 WRs from last year (not to mention their 4th & 5th). Those 2 guys account for like 250 targets. They added a special teamer and a gadget guy. Why are we comfortable that it’ll work with no boundary WRs on the roster except Shorter and Hollins? The Bills still need 200ish targets from guys not on the roster. It’ll be so easy to defend them right now with no outside threats. There is a Grand Canyon-sized chasm between the need for offense vs. the need for defense right now.

Help me understand how you’re comfortable with the offense but not the defense?

 

Be scared? All I said is that the defense is a big question mark.

 

I'm more comfortable with the offense because we have Josh Allen and a cadre of very good skill players. We did fine the last half of the year with Diggs and Davis providing less than they had in any of their previous years. We've already proven we can win without Diggs, and without much contribution from Davis. I think Brady will find ways of making this offense more effective. I do think there will be some growing pains, but in the end: Josh.

 

As for the defense, I agree with you—McD has been good at plugging in a variety of guys at different positions without a huge drop-off, for the most part. But this year he is losing Poyer and (most likely) Hyde, who have given him a lot of flexibility. He's lost some folks from the DL, and we don't have a ton of depth at CB. I think overall the defense will do okay, but just how "okay" is a big question mark to me.

 

The question was if we would be Super Bowl contenders next year...frankly, in my opinion it has already been the defense that has kept us from getting to the Super Bowl. I see the defense being most likely a small notch worse this year.

 

[Aussie Joe]

6 minutes ago, Rubes said:

 

 

 

I'm more comfortable with the offense because we have Josh Allen and a cadre of very good skill players. We did fine the last half of the year with Diggs and Davis providing less than they had in any of their previous years. We've already proven we can win without Diggs, and without much contribution from Davis. I think Brady will find ways of making this offense more effective. I do think there will be some growing pains, but in the end: Josh.

 

 

Davis and particularly Diggs mightn’t have had the production over the back half of test season  … but I’m sure they were still the focus of the opposing defence … Currently that focus wil bee moving to  Shakir and Samuel 

[Kirby Jackson]

15 minutes ago, Rubes said:

 

Be scared? All I said is that the defense is a big question mark.

 

I'm more comfortable with the offense because we have Josh Allen and a cadre of very good skill players. We did fine the last half of the year with Diggs and Davis providing less than they had in any of their previous years. We've already proven we can win without Diggs, and without much contribution from Davis. I think Brady will find ways of making this offense more effective. I do think there will be some growing pains, but in the end: Josh.

 

As for the defense, I agree with you—McD has been good at plugging in a variety of guys at different positions without a huge drop-off, for the most part. But this year he is losing Poyer and (most likely) Hyde, who have given him a lot of flexibility. He's lost some folks from the DL, and we don't have a ton of depth at CB. I think overall the defense will do okay, but just how "okay" is a big question mark to me.

 

The question was if we would be Super Bowl contenders next year...frankly, in my opinion it has already been the defense that has kept us from getting to the Super Bowl. I see the defense being most likely a small notch worse this year.

 

As of today, the Bills have a bottom 3 WR room in the NFL. We have an ascending TE (with a good TE behind him) and a top 15 RB with no one behind him. Josh Allen has covered a lot of flaws on this team. What happens when every single guy is best within 10 yards of the LOS? They have no one that threatens down the field. They have no one that runs those deep out routes. The whole game right now will be played within 1 yards of the LOS. The goal is to find space. Diggs and Davis created space for themselves but also for everyone else. That’s gone. 

 

Poyer and Hyde were still smart but largely done by last year. That’s why Hyde is yet to be signed (if he plays) and Poyer got $2M. The defense has choked in big moments in the playoffs for the same reason that it has been good in the regular season. They will give you those 7-10 yard plays and stop the big play. The elite offenses in the playoffs will just take that all day long. That’s why Travis Kelce kills the Bills. That’s a scheme issue, the reason it works depending on how you view it. That’s not changing because a few guys in their last few years aren’t here any longer. 
 

I guess my point is that defensive depth is so much less important right now than offensive explosion. The Bills need to add, at minimum, 2 boundary WRs capable of combining for 200 targets. Based on all of the mock drafts we have seen, they can’t wait until 60 for the 1st. That’s not possible. You might be looking at Roman Wilson or Ricky Pearsall (who I like a lot) as your number 1. You need to go up for one of the big 3 or try to get 2 before 60 (unless you trade for Aiyuk/Higgins). 

[Buffalo Boy]

8 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

I get concerned about the defense in the postseason every year though. 

They have a Defense in the post season 🤔

[FloridaSnow]

I really think this is the year. We are under the radar again for the first time since before thirteen seconds. Allen is about to enter the next phase of his career with something to prove—but minus the microscope. I can’t help but feel like things are going to come together. 

[PBF81]

9 hours ago, DJB said:

No the season is over. Come back after next year

 

Funny you say that, a lot of Bills fans seem to think that until Mahomes retires we have no chance of we have to go thru them.  I'm not one of them, but they always come out of the woodwork using that as an excuse when it happens.  

 

We tend to beat ourselves after the wild-card round.  

 

As to the premise of the OP, if seems that it depends upon how contention is defined.  

 

And if it is true that we have no chance against Reid/Mahomes, then change what you said to come back after they retire.  

 

Otherwise, if we can solve the reasons why we haven't, them we're in contention.  If not, maybe not.  

 

 

[Rockinon]

53 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

As of today, the Bills have a bottom 3 WR room in the NFL. We have an ascending TE (with a good TE behind him) and a top 15 RB with no one behind him. Josh Allen has covered a lot of flaws on this team. What happens when every single guy is best within 10 yards of the LOS? They have no one that threatens down the field. They have no one that runs those deep out routes. The whole game right now will be played within 1 yards of the LOS. The goal is to find space. Diggs and Davis created space for themselves but also for everyone else. That’s gone. 

 

Poyer and Hyde were still smart but largely done by last year. That’s why Hyde is yet to be signed (if he plays) and Poyer got $2M. The defense has choked in big moments in the playoffs for the same reason that it has been good in the regular season. They will give you those 7-10 yard plays and stop the big play. The elite offenses in the playoffs will just take that all day long. That’s why Travis Kelce kills the Bills. That’s a scheme issue, the reason it works depending on how you view it. That’s not changing because a few guys in their last few years aren’t here any longer. 
 

I guess my point is that defensive depth is so much less important right now than offensive explosion. The Bills need to add, at minimum, 2 boundary WRs capable of combining for 200 targets. Based on all of the mock drafts we have seen, they can’t wait until 60 for the 1st. That’s not possible. You might be looking at Roman Wilson or Ricky Pearsall (who I like a lot) as your number 1. You need to go up for one of the big 3 or try to get 2 before 60 (unless you trade for Aiyuk/Higgins). 

We lost to KC in the playoffs not because of Kelce. KC ran the ball down our throats the whole game. Kelce looked old and slow in that game. The Bills had better address the DL or we're in trouble. I keep seeing that people are 100% focused on passing and stopping the pass. Where the defense is falling short isn't in stopping the pass but in stopping the run. Everyone loves a DL that gets after the passer, but our defense needs help stuffing the run and keeping our LBs clean. If you want to know why there were so many injuries on defense last year, this would be it. To many of the defenses smaller guys were making tackles instead of the big boys up front. That's no way to run a defense.

[Chaos]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I think we have a chance while we have #17 but I'd be surprised. We'd need a lot to go our way in 2024 to make the Superbowl IMO. It is a very thin margin for error. Our roster will be less strong and less experienced. I do think the younger guys will take another step but I see this as more a 1 and done playoff roster.

You can't forget though, that we have the advantage of having a process. 

[Freddie's Dead]

No.   Out in the divisional round at best.

[Beck Water]

11 hours ago, Rubes said:

I agree with OP that defense is the big question mark for me this year. Will we be able to generate a pass rush? Will the secondary make up for the losses? Will Milano stay healthy for a full season?

 

I expect we'll be okay on offense, but I can't see us going very far if the defense is a notch or two worse than last year.

 

I share your concern about the defense, but I thought the defense was going to be a significant step worse last season, going into the season with great big ??? at MLB, without Von Miller, and relying on the highly intelligent, synergistic, but aging Dr Poyer and Mr Hyde at safety.

 

And it wasn't.  It was lights out to start the season, allowing us to be blissfully "Marked Safe from Hearing about How Many Points the Dolphins Scored" during Week 4.

 

Then we lost 3 significant starting pieces by Week 4 and again, I was "oh *****, O better ratchet it up", but 4 weeks later we're trading for Rasul Douglas, we've signed Linval Joseph, and we've figured out how to platoon Tyrell Dodson with Jordan Poyer at LB to make up for the loss of Milano.

 

So while right now I see question marks and gaps all over our D, I have a fair degree of confidence that as far as regular season goes, if you give McDermott a plate of intelligent NFL players with a leavening of talent, he'll figure out how to cobble together a functional NFL defense.

 

I'll put it out there: I think we have 3 big questionmarks on offense.

Questionmark 1 is, "will the OL be at least at the level it was last season?"  That has 3 sub parts:"is Connor McGovern a capable C for the Bills"?  "Is David Edwards the answer at LG?" and "Will Spencer Brown take a step as a pass blocking RT?"

 

Questionmark 2 is, "who will the Bills start the season with, at WR?"  Who will they get in the draft?  Will they sign a FA after the draft?  Beane's commentary about not seeing a glaring hole or needing a #1, is, I hope just pre-draft GM speak.  Without Stefon Diggs, the Bills offense was good enough to get to the playoffs and run out of offensive gas.  

 

Questionmark 3 is, "What is Joe Brady's vision for the offense, and can he flex that vision to make the best use of the pieces we have?"  That's the Biggest Question for me.

 

it's clear from what Allen said, and how the team performed at the end of last season, he and his teammates are comfortable with Joe Brady.  Brady doesn't have a lot of experience - 2 years as a Saints offensive assistant, a year as the Passing Game Coordinator and WR coach at LSU, 2 years as the OC of the Panthers (pretty bad offense, but maybe not his fault), then 1.5 years as the QB coach for the Bills and 0.5 years as OC.  

 

In his interview about 8:16 in, after praising the addition of Curtis Samuel, the development of Khalil, and Dalton and Dawson, Allen said "bringing in someone who pairs well with these guys...but really it depends on what we want to be as an offense, to see who's going to be the best fit, and right now I couldn't tell you that."   Different ways to interpret that.

 

I think it was Greg Cosell who commented on one of his OBD segments about Joe Brady wanting the offense to be a run-first offense.  Based on what we saw at the end of last season, I can't fault that line of thought - the Bills had 331 rush attempts to 298 pass attempts after Brady took over, and had more rush than pass attempts in 5 of 9 games (2 more where it was even or within 2).

 

I hope that's not the direction that Brady wants to take the Bills, because it seems like a waste of a QB who can make any throw to any part of the field, and whose strength has never been the short, precision passing game with YAC that run-first teams tend to rely on.  It's also, unless we pull more RBs out of the air, a hell of a lot of wear and tear on that QB's body.  During the first 10 games, Allen had 48 rush attempts or an average of 4.8/game; during the last 9 games with Brady, Allen had 83 rush attempts or 9.2/game.  I'm hoping that Brady was leaning on the run to let Josh's throwing shoulder "get right", and to compensate for Diggs lack of contribution (whether he took himself out, was hindered by nagging injuries, or the Bills were deliberately leaving him out).

 

Anyway, I'm more concerned about the offense at this point; although I don't make the mistake of thinking the players we have right now are going to be the ones we start the season with, I think Questions 3 and 1 will remain.

Edited April 21 by Beck Water

[Beck Water]

3 hours ago, Rubes said:

 

Be scared? All I said is that the defense is a big question mark.

 

I'm more comfortable with the offense because we have Josh Allen and a cadre of very good skill players. We did fine the last half of the year with Diggs and Davis providing less than they had in any of their previous years. We've already proven we can win without Diggs, and without much contribution from Davis. I think Brady will find ways of making this offense more effective. I do think there will be some growing pains, but in the end: Josh.

 

As for the defense, I agree with you—McD has been good at plugging in a variety of guys at different positions without a huge drop-off, for the most part. But this year he is losing Poyer and (most likely) Hyde, who have given him a lot of flexibility. He's lost some folks from the DL, and we don't have a ton of depth at CB. I think overall the defense will do okay, but just how "okay" is a big question mark to me.

 

The question was if we would be Super Bowl contenders next year...frankly, in my opinion it has already been the defense that has kept us from getting to the Super Bowl. I see the defense being most likely a small notch worse this year.

 

 

Ooh.  I can't argue with the l2nd to last sentence, that I bolded.  My personal belief is that what happens is McDermott and his D coaches skill at getting the most from whatever defensive roster they have, falls short when faced with the very best offensive players (and of course, missing 2 starters and a key rotational player with 2 more playing hurt, probably made KC and their fans grin like Cheshire cats)

 

As far as losing Poyer and Hyde....it might be worth noting that Rapp actually started 4 games (1 for Poyer and 3 for Hyde), as well as enabling the rotation the Bills used to make up for Milano - on key passing downs 12-33% of the snaps, they would move Poyer into the box as a "LB lite" and have Rapp backfill at safety, to overcome Dodson's lesser abilities in coverage.  And to my eyes, both Poyer and Hyde had fallen off quite a bit.  I'm nervous about relying on Rapp at safety, but I also don't believe who we have on the roster now is necessarily who we'll go into the season with.

[Beck Water]

11 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I find this baffling. Help me understand. The Bills have plugged in a variety of guys over the McDermott era and have been more or less the same. They’ve played extended periods without Poyer, Milano, Tre, Von, Hyde, etc… The scheme has had them more or less the same defense regardless of who is out there. They play a conservative zone where they try to avoid big plays and keep the game close. Why do we think, with most of the same guys (minus Poyer, Floyd & Hyde plus Milano) that they will be significantly different? Sean McDermott’s defenses are always about the same. Explain why I should be scared? If the answer is “pass rush” they may need to generate more with the blitz but outside of Floyd (who disappeared late in the year) what’s changed? 
 

The offense has to replace their number 1 and number 2 WRs from last year (not to mention their 4th & 5th). Those 2 guys account for like 250 targets. They added a special teamer and a gadget guy. Why are we comfortable that it’ll work with no boundary WRs on the roster except Shorter and Hollins? The Bills still need 200ish targets from guys not on the roster. It’ll be so easy to defend them right now with no outside threats. There is a Grand Canyon-sized chasm between the need for offense vs. the need for defense right now.

Help me understand how you’re comfortable with the offense but not the defense?

 

I'm generally in agreement with you about the D.  I see questionmarks at a couple positions, but I have faith in McDermott's ability to make it work.  Anyone remember that we played the Miami game and locked them down with Rapp playing 100% of the snaps at safety?  Didn't think so.

 

I do think it's selling Samuel way short if that's who you're describing as a "gadget guy".  He's been a receiver, and a generally rather consistent one.  "Gadget Guy" McKenzie would still be on the team if he'd been racking up 60+ receptions/year and 600+ yds/year on the regular.  If he and Josh can get on the same page, we should be able to have two guys who can play both the slot and outside, in Samuel and Shakir.

 

And I wholly agree that we have big holes at WR, unless they believe Kincaid can provide a deep threat?

[Big Blitz]

Fan Duel has us with 4th highest odds tied with Bengals and Detroit

 

1. 49ers

2. Chiefs

3. Ravens

4. Bengals, Lions, Bills

[GASabresIUFan]

Defense depth is certainly a concern on the Dline and Safety, but ultimately contention will come down to can the Bills stay healthy.  If they can keep the defense healthy for once, I believe the Bills, with their newly more dynamic offense, can contend. 

[Big Blitz]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFan said:

Defense depth is certainly a concern on the Dline and Safety, but ultimately contention will come down to can the Bills stay healthy.  If they can keep the defense healthy for once, I believe the Bills, with their newly more dynamic offense, can contend. 

Don’t be shocked if Defense is what we’re talking about Thursday night.  

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

Fan Duel has us with 4th highest odds tied with Bengals and Detroit

 

1. 49ers

2. Chiefs

3. Ravens

4. Bengals, Lions, Bills

 

That's actually interesting.  These things usually seem to just recap the teams that were good the previous year.

But it's omitting

Houston, which was a division winning playoff team last year and looks to have been serious about making a run for it

Cowboys, who had the same record as the 49ers and Lions

 

I guess the feeling was the Bengals woulda been in it if Burrows weren't hurt so they get the "hall pass" from 2022?

 

54 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

Don’t be shocked if Defense is what we’re talking about Thursday night.  

 

I won't be shocked but I will be 

[JoshAllin]

Bernard has been promising all season. He's easily the leader of the group. I still have bills wining it all if he played in the KC game. Cook gonna have to play a major role with the receiving group the way it is, Kincaid is gonna be Josh's fav target, Shakir has been solid, and the 4th weapon will be battle with the other receivers and draft pick

[QLBillsFan]

16 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I find this baffling. Help me understand. The Bills have plugged in a variety of guys over the McDermott era and have been more or less the same. They’ve played extended periods without Poyer, Milano, Tre, Von, Hyde, etc… The scheme has had them more or less the same defense regardless of who is out there. They play a conservative zone where they try to avoid big plays and keep the game close. Why do we think, with most of the same guys (minus Poyer, Floyd & Hyde plus Milano) that they will be significantly different? Sean McDermott’s defenses are always about the same. Explain why I should be scared? If the answer is “pass rush” they may need to generate more with the blitz but outside of Floyd (who disappeared late in the year) what’s changed? 
 

The offense has to replace their number 1 and number 2 WRs from last year (not to mention their 4th & 5th). Those 2 guys account for like 250 targets. They added a special teamer and a gadget guy. Why are we comfortable that it’ll work with no boundary WRs on the roster except Shorter and Hollins? The Bills still need 200ish targets from guys not on the roster. It’ll be so easy to defend them right now with no outside threats. There is a Grand Canyon-sized chasm between the need for offense vs. the need for defense right now.

Help me understand how you’re comfortable with the offense but not the defense?

A gadget guy ? Seriously? Make a sound argument. Shakir and Kincaid will both catch 70-80. Samuel “ gadget guy” will get 60. And the WR via draft or trade will catch 50-60. JA is the QB who can throw the ball to any of 6-7 viable options with no diva bs. Addition by subtraction. Shakir is going to be outstanding this year. 

[QLBillsFan]

8 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

As of today, the Bills have a bottom 3 WR room in the NFL. We have an ascending TE (with a good TE behind him) and a top 15 RB with no one behind him. Josh Allen has covered a lot of flaws on this team. What happens when every single guy is best within 10 yards of the LOS? They have no one that threatens down the field. They have no one that runs those deep out routes. The whole game right now will be played within 1 yards of the LOS. The goal is to find space. Diggs and Davis created space for themselves but also for everyone else. That’s gone. 

 

Poyer and Hyde were still smart but largely done by last year. That’s why Hyde is yet to be signed (if he plays) and Poyer got $2M. The defense has choked in big moments in the playoffs for the same reason that it has been good in the regular season. They will give you those 7-10 yard plays and stop the big play. The elite offenses in the playoffs will just take that all day long. That’s why Travis Kelce kills the Bills. That’s a scheme issue, the reason it works depending on how you view it. That’s not changing because a few guys in their last few years aren’t here any longer. 
 

I guess my point is that defensive depth is so much less important right now than offensive explosion. The Bills need to add, at minimum, 2 boundary WRs capable of combining for 200 targets. Based on all of the mock drafts we have seen, they can’t wait until 60 for the 1st. That’s not possible. You might be looking at Roman Wilson or Ricky Pearsall (who I like a lot) as your number 1. You need to go up for one of the big 3 or try to get 2 before 60 (unless you trade for Aiyuk/Higgins). 

Bottom 3 WR room in the NFL ? Based on you saying it ???

[BullBuchanan]

10 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

It’s unlike you to have a pessimistic outlook …

 

I don’t think it requires a “ series of miracles “… find 2 receivers ..and an edge … before Week 1…

I'm not pessimistic - I'm realistic. If we had Roquan Smith, TJ Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick and AJ Brown, I'd have us penciled in as favorites. Unfortunately we don't have a receiver that's ever hit 1k yards, don't have a pass rushers that's ever hit double digit sacks (besides the empty husk of Von miller), and we easily have the worst safety duo in the league right now.

History has been on my side every year for 3 straight. Let's re-check the tally at the end of this season and see how far blind optimism gets you.