Lance Zierlein: Bills should draft 2 WR in the first 3 rounds

[PonyBoy]

2 hours ago, H2o said:

I don't really worry about all of the measurements when it comes to people making plays. If a guy can shake his defender, and Josh can throw an accurate ball, then the length of a ring finger added to an arm isn't that much of a difference. I think people get too caught up on the measurement of every arm, toe, and eyelash. I don't think that small of a talking point is truly relevant if the guy is a twitchy, solid route runner with excellent hands. I do think our WR situation pushes Shakir to the outside more often than previously seen, but I think this year will be more of a committee than in years before as well.

 

I understand Davis and Samuel are different people, with different responsibilities. I just think that Brady will be able to utilize Samuel better than anyone else has and that Josh will be the best QB he's ever had slinging him the rock. I think that Samuel will see career highs in this offense if he stays healthy.

 

I'm still all for drafting two WR's. Legette and Corley. Legette and Walker. Legette and Rice. Legette and McCaffrey. Mitchell and Corley. Mitchell and Walker. Mitchell and Rice. Mitchell and McCaffrey. Franklin and another guy. Worthy and whoever. We just need to make sure JA17 has some quality options at WR outside of the ones we have now. 

 

In your post you state....

 

"I think people get too caught up on the measurement of every arm, toe, and eyelash."

 

What about the QB "Penix"? 

Do you think size matters? 😉😂

[Dr. Who]

34 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I’m flexible at 60 - if they don’t like the WR pick another position.  My point is - accept a bit of step back and get good players.  I’m not forcing WR in any round this year.

Alright, I thought your premise in the previous post was 2 WRs. I disagree. I think they need to be more proactive, and I would prioritize WR. #60 is definitely not a good spot for WR, so if you stay there, it's likely another position.

[billsfan89]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

Question: How many of his snaps did Shakir play from the slot last year?  Someone here must know.

 

I don't think the Bills are planning to use Samuel as a "gadget WR4".  I think they intend him to split his snaps between the slot (primary) and outside.

 

I don't think we disagree.  My primary point was just that I read a lot of people writing as though Shakir and/or Samuel can simply replace Davis, and while they can both potentially increase their production from what they had last season, they're not going to replace Davis role or the production that came from Davis filling that role.

 

Shakir overall had 52% of the offensive snaps last season, but he had more like 30% during the first half of the season, and 70% during the 2nd half.

Samuel had ~ half the offensive snaps for Washington through the entire season.  During his best season (2020) he had 68%.

 

 

I think Shakir is going to be on the field heavy 70% or more of snaps but I do think about half of those snaps are going to be in the slot and I think Samuel is going to have a similar split but will be on the field less as I think in 2 TE sets he comes off the field. The Bills desperately need at least one WR in the draft that can come and play on the boundary consistently and take in at least 70-80 targets. I think a second WR drafted between picks 128-144 would be enough depth but if the value at pick 60 is great and this team doubles up that's fine with me. I just don't think you should pass up on other better players at positions of need just because you "have to" take a WR again. 

 

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, H2o said:

I don't really worry about all of the measurements when it comes to people making plays. If a guy can shake his defender, and Josh can throw an accurate ball, then the length of a ring finger added to an arm isn't that much of a difference. I think people get too caught up on the measurement of every arm, toe, and eyelash. I don't think that small of a talking point is truly relevant if the guy is a twitchy, solid route runner with excellent hands. I do think our WR situation pushes Shakir to the outside more often than previously seen, but I think this year will be more of a committee than in years before as well.

 

I understand Davis and Samuel are different people, with different responsibilities. I just think that Brady will be able to utilize Samuel better than anyone else has and that Josh will be the best QB he's ever had slinging him the rock. I think that Samuel will see career highs in this offense if he stays healthy.

 

I'm still all for drafting two WR's. Legette and Corley. Legette and Walker. Legette and Rice. Legette and McCaffrey. Mitchell and Corley. Mitchell and Walker. Mitchell and Rice. Mitchell and McCaffrey. Franklin and another guy. Worthy and whoever. We just need to make sure JA17 has some quality options at WR outside of the ones we have now. 

 

Mmmmm.  Well, there are places where you're probably right.  I have it on good authority that eyelash length isn't a factor, because with the increase in visor use the DBs are no longer distracted by the WR batting their lashes at a high rate of speed.  Likewise, with the wide variety of custom cleats and orthopedics, toe length has now been shown to be irrelevant.

 

 "If a guy can shake his defender" is a big "if".  Given that the defender *is* allowed to put his hands on the WR for 5 yds, and that refs typically allow hand-fighting all the way down the field - arm length seems directly relevant.  Sure, technique matters, but when you have two players with great technique, it matters if one guy can put his hands on you while you can't even reach him.  

 

The questions for you are:  

-Is arm length that small of a talking point?  Joe Marino did a podcast that was linked here where it was said only 2 WR had built successful careers with arms shorter than 30": Hunter Renfrow, and Isaiah McKenzie.  Of course, there can always be a third exception, but sometimes when there's a rule there's a reason.

-Can you construct a rational argument why it doesn't matter, given the legality of physical play w/in 5 yds of the LOS and it being allowed afterwards?

 

Analogy: I'm one who kind of poo-poos the 40 yd dash times as "underwear Olympics" because it seems like a lot of guys who are super-speedy at the combine play slower, while guys who were slow at the combine play faster during games.  My rational argument is now, GPS sensor technology allows scouts to track the actual playing speed college players show on the field and that's more relevant than 40 yd dash measurements.

 

Do you have something like that to argue why arm length isn't important to help a receiver get off press man?

Can't disagree on Josh being the best QB and share your hope that Brady will use Samuel well, and I'm all about drafting 2 WR though not necessarily 1st rd and 2nd rd.

 

[OldTimer1960]

39 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Alright, I thought your premise in the previous post was 2 WRs. I disagree. I think they need to be more proactive, and I would prioritize WR. #60 is definitely not a good spot for WR, so if you stay there, it's likely another position.

I guess what I was trying to say is they have needs at WR, DE, DT, CB, S and they aren’t going to be able to fills those all this draft (discounting the idea that 5th, 6th and 7th round picks are likely to be real answers).  Given that hand, I agree that 1 WR is a must.  Especially since I don’t think they will find a decent DE prospect at 60, I would be open to BPA at any of those positions- even if that meant a 2nd WR.  I’m not saying that they must take a WR at 60, but I would be open to it if there was a surprise player available.

[DeepPass]

8 hours ago, Beck Water said:

https://www.buffalobills.com/video/nfl-total-access-should-the-bills-draft-two-receivers-in-the-first-three-rounds

Be nice if he'd explain how the Bills get a draft pick in the 3rd round.

 

Bottom line: seems nobody buys Beane's presser about how WR isn't a gaping hole for the Bills.

 

Anyway, Lance Zierlein isn't just a clickbait talking head.  He's the guy who does all the draft profiles for NFL.com, and while his grades and round projections are off, when go back and I read his actual scouting reports for strengths and weaknesses after the player has been in the league a while, I find myself nodding.

 

 

stay at our spot at 28.  then take a WR in rd1, a dt in rd2 and another WR in round 4. after that we have 7 picks to draft safeties, a cb etc

[TheBeaneBandit]

46 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Alright, I thought your premise in the previous post was 2 WRs. I disagree. I think they need to be more proactive, and I would prioritize WR. #60 is definitely not a good spot for WR, so if you stay there, it's likely another position.

Yeah 60 is a bad spot for pretty much all our need positions except safety and although not a huge need IOL. 

[Goin Breakdown]

He says 2 in the first 3 rounds. Everyone is saying we don't have a third round pic. I'm not a mathematician or anything but I'd say you could get 2 WR before the non-existent 3rd rounder. Right? No? 

[Ralonzo]

1 hour ago, PonyBoy said:

 

In your post you state....

 

"I think people get too caught up on the measurement of every arm, toe, and eyelash."

 

What about the QB "Penix"? 

Do you think size matters? 😉😂

 

[Dr. Who]

1 hour ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I guess what I was trying to say is they have needs at WR, DE, DT, CB, S and they aren’t going to be able to fills those all this draft (discounting the idea that 5th, 6th and 7th round picks are likely to be real answers).  Given that hand, I agree that 1 WR is a must.  Especially since I don’t think they will find a decent DE prospect at 60, I would be open to BPA at any of those positions- even if that meant a 2nd WR.  I’m not saying that they must take a WR at 60, but I would be open to it if there was a surprise player available.

Slowly we are getting to a point of understanding, at least as to what we each mean. I would prefer to go WR early twice, but if they wait until #60, there is very little chance a WR I would value at that pick will be on the board. So my position is trade up from #60 to get the second WR. If you're not willing or unable to do that, and end up staying at #60, I suspect the best pick will be some other position.  I do not want to just take any WR or the best left on the board if that doesn't happen to be one of a small number that I favor, all of which I expect to be selected well before then. In that case, any one of the defensive positions you outline are possible, and I would not discount OL early either for that matter, because the value could be there as well.

1 hour ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

Yeah 60 is a bad spot for pretty much all our need positions except safety and although not a huge need IOL. 

It may turn out different, but my sense is they either have to move up or move back from that spot.

[3rdand12]

10 hours ago, Beck Water said:

https://www.buffalobills.com/video/nfl-total-access-should-the-bills-draft-two-receivers-in-the-first-three-rounds

Be nice if he'd explain how the Bills get a draft pick in the 3rd round.

 

Bottom line: seems nobody buys Beane's presser about how WR isn't a gaping hole for the Bills.

 

Anyway, Lance Zierlein isn't just a clickbait talking head.  He's the guy who does all the draft profiles for NFL.com, and while his grades and round projections are off, when go back and I read his actual scouting reports for strengths and weaknesses after the player has been in the league a while, I find myself nodding.

 

 

3rd round ?

he/Beanes is going to trade up with the 8 or so picks after the third  and then gain a third. he might even go for two twos. No seriously

[billsfan89]

2 hours ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

Yeah 60 is a bad spot for pretty much all our need positions except safety and although not a huge need IOL. 

Hard to say if 60 is a bad spot for needs as the draft shakes out significantly differently than most people project. I think IOL is actually a bigger need than most think. Right now David Edwards is the starting LG I can live with that so to speak but upgrading that spot and improving the depth of the offensive line by having Edwards back on the bench is a two fold positive. 
 

If the Bills get a solid WR at pick 28 and at pick 60 none of the top 8-9 WR’s are on the board and there’s not a good DT or DE there IOL is a good place to upgrade the offensive lines starting five and depth. If this team is going to be less dependent on Diggs and Josh throwing than having a mauling offensive line with good depth is necessary.

[NastyNateSoldiers]

20 hours ago, Beck Water said:

https://www.buffalobills.com/video/nfl-total-access-should-the-bills-draft-two-receivers-in-the-first-three-rounds

Be nice if he'd explain how the Bills get a draft pick in the 3rd round.

 

Bottom line: seems nobody buys Beane's presser about how WR isn't a gaping hole for the Bills.

 

Anyway, Lance Zierlein isn't just a clickbait talking head.  He's the guy who does all the draft profiles for NFL.com, and while his grades and round projections are off, when go back and I read his actual scouting reports for strengths and weaknesses after the player has been in the league a while, I find myself nodding.

 

 

I would love for the Bills to get a combo of Xaxier Leggette and Malik Washington. I don't care about Washington size the kid is a baller. 

[Beck Water]

14 hours ago, Goin Breakdown said:

He says 2 in the first 3 rounds. Everyone is saying we don't have a third round pic. I'm not a mathematician or anything but I'd say you could get 2 WR before the non-existent 3rd rounder. Right? No? 

 

Right, yes.

 

Where it matters is that if the Bills had a pick in each of the first 3 rounds, they could use 2 of the 3 on WR and still add to another position on the team.

 

Some people think the Bills have no other needs than WR, others (like me) think they have needs at DE, DL, and CB or maybe Safety.

 

It's possible Beane has some legerdemain on tap for creating a 3rd round pick, I don't know.

Edited April 20 by Beck Water

[TheyCallMeAndy]

I’m pretty much on board with trading into the early second round and taking 2 WRs. 

[Goin Breakdown]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

Right, yes.

 

Where it matters is that if the Bills had a pick in each of the first 3 rounds, they could use 2 of the 3 on WR and still add to another position on the team.

 

Some people think the Bills have no other needs than WR, others (like me) think they have needs at DE, DL, and CB or maybe Safety.

 

It's possible Beane has some legerdemain on tap for creating a 3rd round pick, I don't know.

WR

another need in the 2nd

Wr in 4th

if the Bills stay put

Edited April 20 by Goin Breakdown

[Dr. Who]

9 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Right, yes.

 

Where it matters is that if the Bills had a pick in each of the first 3 rounds, they could use 2 of the 3 on WR and still add to another position on the team.

 

Some people think the Bills have no other needs than WR, others (like me) think they have needs at DE, DL, and CB or maybe Safety.

 

It's possible Beane has some legerdemain on tap for creating a 3rd round pick, I don't know.

I think there are other needs, but I would sacrifice some to get the WRs early.

 

DE, DT, CB, S, OL, RB2, lots of places I would add if given sufficient resources.

 

I do think it is a terrible year at edge and mediocre at S. WR (first two rounds, especially), OL, and CB are pretty deep.

There are some decent mid-round DT depth if you have to wait on that.

1 minute ago, Goin Breakdown said:

WR

another need in 3

Wr in 4th

if the Bills stay put

Right now, we have a second round pick at #60 and no third.

[Turbo44]

2 hours ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

I would love for the Bills to get a combo of Xaxier Leggette and Malik Washington. I don't care about Washington size the kid is a baller. 

I would love to get Mitchell at 28 and Ladd at 40 (trade up with 60 and a 2025 2nd). 
 

with no trades, Ladd at 28 and see who’s left at 60. Walker certainly will be, as will Baker, but maybe Legette, Franklin or Polk slides to 60. 

 

either of these senarios would give us a better wr group than any in recent memory. Out other needs (DE, S, DT, OL) can be filled with out multiple 4th, 5th and 6th round picks 
 

 

[Goin Breakdown]

54 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I think there are other needs, but I would sacrifice some to get the WRs early.

 

DE, DT, CB, S, OL, RB2, lots of places I would add if given sufficient resources.

 

I do think it is a terrible year at edge and mediocre at S. WR (first two rounds, especially), OL, and CB are pretty deep.

There are some decent mid-round DT depth if you have to wait on that.

Right now, we have a second round pick at #60 and no third.

Right I meant 2nd my bad

56 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I think there are other needs, but I would sacrifice some to get the WRs early.

 

DE, DT, CB, S, OL, RB2, lots of places I would add if given sufficient resources.

 

I do think it is a terrible year at edge and mediocre at S. WR (first two rounds, especially), OL, and CB are pretty deep.

There are some decent mid-round DT depth if you have to wait on that.

Right now, we have a second round pick at #60 and no third.

Yeah I meant 2nd. I do this all the time with numbers at home too. Drives my wife crazy. Yeah so basically the same. WR in the first. Another need in the second and a Wr in the 4th imo works well for me but who am I lol

Edited April 20 by Goin Breakdown

[Turbo44]

17 hours ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

Yeah 60 is a bad spot for pretty much all our need positions except safety and although not a huge need IOL. 

It looks like 60 isn’t ideal for wr unless a tier 3 guy slips to there which is possible but not likely (Legette, Franklin, Coleman, Polk). 60 is also too early for the 4th tier, Walker, baker, Florida guy, Michigan guy 

 

but, 60 does look like a really good spot for a DT or DE