A visual argument against trading down & for trading up

[Beck Water]

While we're talking visual arguments, this is from Sal Capaccio.  

 

-At this point, the Bills rank 5th fewest receiving yards on the roster

-Prior to the Diggs trade, it would have been 7th most

 

I'm not sure how much 'career receiving yards' means; Diggs accounts for a lot because he's been in the league since 2015, for example.  I think most people would say the Bengals have one of the best receiving corps in the league, but of course Ja'Marr Chase has 3 seasons and Tee Higgins 4.  So they're 11th fewest.
 

 

Edited April 20 by Beck Water

[Nephilim17]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

While we're talking visual arguments, this is from Sal Capaccio.  

 

-At this point, the Bills rank 5th fewest receiving yards on the roster

-Prior to the Diggs trade, it would have been 7th most

 

I'm not sure how much 'career receiving yards' means; Diggs accounts for a lot because he's been in the league since 2015, for example.  I think most people would say the Bengals have one of the best receiving corps in the league, but of course Ja'Marr Chase has 3 seasons and Tee Higgins 4.  So they're 11th fewest.
 

 

At this point, I don't give e damn how many regular season yards a Bills WR gets — so long as we make the playoffs.

Steff had 65 yards total for his LAST THREE PLAYOFF GAMES COMBINED.

Not enough by a long, long shot. So who cares about his over 3,800 regular season yards the last three seasons.

[transplantbillsfan]

3 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

Similar with DT and DE.  Da'Quan is on a 1 yr deal and hasn't made it through the last 2 seasons.  Draft a DT if there's a decent one anywhere near us.  DE: Casey Toohill is a career journeyman at DE who has finally, after 7 years in the league, made it to where he started 8 games last year.  Right now at DE we got Rousseau, Epenesa, the Ghost of Von Miller, and Toohill.  *shudder* I'd say that 's a need.

 

 

Daquan is on a 2 year deal. And he's been EXTREMELY durable throughout his career, including his first year with Buffalo.

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Nephilim17 said:

At this point, I don't give e damn how many regular season yards a Bills WR gets — so long as we make the playoffs.

Steff had 65 yards total for his LAST THREE PLAYOFF GAMES COMBINED.

Not enough by a long, long shot. So who cares about his over 3,800 regular season yards the last three seasons.

 

Well, to be fair....if we didn't have those 3,800 regular season yards from Stef the last 3 seasons, would we be in a position to whinge about his lack of playoff contributions?

10 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Daquan is on a 2 year deal. And he's been EXTREMELY durable throughout his career, including his first year with Buffalo.

 

You're right, I mis-remembered.  Apologies, 2 year deal it is.

 

But as to his durability, he missed the playoff game against the Cinncinnati playoff game in 2022 with a calf injury and missed 10 games in 2023 with a torn pec.

 

He's 32, the fur on the lucky durability rabbit's foot starts wearing off.

[Nephilim17]

8 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

Well, to be fair....if we didn't have those 3,800 regular season yards from Stef the last 3 seasons, would we be in a position to whinge about his lack of playoff contributions?

17 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Yes, yes, I think we would have made the playoffs with a "lesser' player who got 900 or 1000 yards a year instead of Steph's 1200, 1400, 1200 yard seasons. Josh would have spread the ball around more. See 2023 second half of the season as proof. 

I'm not saying if you totally take Steph away with the remaining players we make the playoffs; but without his very large salary an additional WR would have taken his place. Let's see what we do this year. I don't think we miss Steph all that much.

I think a lot of guy will have inflated stats with Josh if they are starting. 

[Beck Water]

4 minutes ago, Nephilim17 said:

Yes, yes, I think we would have made the playoffs with a "lesser' player who got 900 or 1000 yards a year instead of Steph's 1200, 1400, 1200 yard seasons. Josh would have spread the ball around more. See 2023 second half of the season as proof. 

I'm not saying if you totally take Steph away with the remaining players we make the playoffs; but without his very large salary an additional WR would have taken his place. Let's see what we do this year. I don't think we miss Steph all that much.

I think a lot of guy will have inflated stats with Josh if they are starting. 

 

You might have a point with regard to 2023 when Shakir had taken a big step forward and we had Kincaid playing very well.

 

But who was there to spread the ball to in 2022?

 

Of course if you want to hypothesise different WR onto the roster, any situation can be created.

[Nephilim17]

Just now, Beck Water said:

But who was there to spread the ball to in 2022?

 

My point is if Diggs wasn't there, everyone does not simply get bumped up from 4 to 3, from 3 to 2 and 2 to 1.

 

Without Diggs 2022 salary on the books Beane would've had another player in Digg's place. I maintain another player with the same or less money could have helped us make the playoffs. And get quite possibly get more than Digg's 8 targets, 3 receptions and 21 yards in our final playoff game that year.

[Beck Water]

19 minutes ago, Nephilim17 said:

My point is if Diggs wasn't there, everyone does not simply get bumped up from 4 to 3, from 3 to 2 and 2 to 1.

 

Without Diggs 2022 salary on the books Beane would've had another player in Digg's place. I maintain another player with the same or less money could have helped us make the playoffs. And get quite possibly get more than Digg's 8 targets, 3 receptions and 21 yards in our final playoff game that year.

 

And you certainly have a relevant point, that if the Bills had done a number of different things, they could have had different players who perhaps could have helped Josh elevate his game and make the playoffs.  After all, Jefferson was available with the #1 pick we traded! etc etc.

 

I think that's inarguable, so you're right there.

 

My point was that to just say "I don't care about Diggs regular season contributions when he squibbed in the playoffs" doesn't really account for this.  Other things being equal, playoffs would not be as much concern without Diggs regular season contributions.  I don't think that's arguable, either.

Edited April 20 by Beck Water

[Nephilim17]

1 minute ago, Beck Water said:

 

And you certainly have a relevant point, that if the Bills had done a number of different things, they could have had different players who perhaps could have helped Josh elevate his game and make the playoffs.  I think that's inarguable.

 

My point was that to just say "I don't care about Diggs regular season contributions when he squibbed in the playoffs" doesn't really account for this.  Other things being equal, playoffs would not be as much concern without Diggs regular season contributions.  I don't think that's arguable, either.

Sorry to belabor the point, but are you suggesting we don't make the playoffs without Diggs? And with his salary freed up to pay any number of other players?

If so, I think that's ridiculous. If I have the wrong take, apologies, and I'll go back to my vodka and Joy Division.

[BigDingus]

It may have already been posted, but here's a great article from ESPN on why it's almost never a good idea to trade up, especially not from our position all the way into the top 10 - https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2024/story/_/id/39964243/nfl-draft-seven-cliches-trading-why-flawed-process

 

It actually discusses the Bills a couple times, once regarding trading up for Allen, and once for Watkins. But the point wasn't to criticize moves made to help these teams, only to show that trading up is almost never worth all that it takes to give up using the Johnson point chart (written in the 90's as a reflection of the market back then, not at all meant to be an official guideline forever).

 

"In terms of total Approximate Value accumulated through the 2022 season, 85 of those deals were "won" by the trade-down team, 49 were "won" by the trade-up team and six were a tie."

 

Considering how much the Chiefs had to give up just to move from 29th to 21st using that outdated chart, it would take a huge investment of multiple years worth draft capital for the Bills to make a huge splash like some fans want. Even if they snag a star player, chances are we'd be better off saving those picks & grabbing many more players that can contribute over those next few years.

[Beck Water]

11 hours ago, BigDingus said:

It may have already been posted, but here's a great article from ESPN on why it's almost never a good idea to trade up, especially not from our position all the way into the top 10 - https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2024/story/_/id/39964243/nfl-draft-seven-cliches-trading-why-flawed-process

 

It actually discusses the Bills a couple times, once regarding trading up for Allen, and once for Watkins. But the point wasn't to criticize moves made to help these teams, only to show that trading up is almost never worth all that it takes to give up using the Johnson point chart (written in the 90's as a reflection of the market back then, not at all meant to be an official guideline forever).

 

"In terms of total Approximate Value accumulated through the 2022 season, 85 of those deals were "won" by the trade-down team, 49 were "won" by the trade-up team and six were a tie."

 

Considering how much the Chiefs had to give up just to move from 29th to 21st using that outdated chart, it would take a huge investment of multiple years worth draft capital for the Bills to make a huge splash like some fans want. Even if they snag a star player, chances are we'd be better off saving those picks & grabbing many more players that can contribute over those next few years.

 

I don't agree with their assessment of Beane and the trade for Josh Allen: the bottom line is, no matter who is sitting in the GM chair, if the team doesn't have a top QB its overall outlook is poor.

 

But otherwise, spot on.  The assessment of the trade-up for Sammy Watkins is especially a propos

 

11 hours ago, Nephilim17 said:

Sorry to belabor the point, but are you suggesting we don't make the playoffs without Diggs? And with his salary freed up to pay any number of other players?

If so, I think that's ridiculous. If I have the wrong take, apologies, and I'll go back to my vodka and Joy Division.

 

No, not quite.

 

I'm saying that you can make up a number of different scenarios where we don't trade for Diggs or extend him, and acquire quality receiver talent by other means, and that the chances we make the playoffs could theoretically be just as good.   If we're playing "let's rewrite history and figure out who we could have acquired instead of Diggs, or by trading Diggs after 2021 instead of signing him to a big extension in Spring 2022, SURE, we can come up with a variety of solutions to replace his regular-season production.

 

I'm saying if you take the team we had, and erase Diggs regular season contributions, we don't make the playoffs - even if Allen does a super-efficient job of distributing the ball to the rest of the guys on those teams as they were.  You can't erase or disparage Diggs regular season production and without Diggs, I personally don't believe we had enough regular season WR/TE talent.  We made it work at the end of 2023 by leaning on the run game, and I hope we don't intend to become a run-first team, that would be a waste of Josh Allen's talents.

 

And Diggs did have some clutch playoff contributions - 2020, and the Miami game in 2022

 

 

Edited April 20 by Beck Water

[transplantbillsfan]

19 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

I think it's pretty important that they get as many top 100 picks as possible. We aren't 1 player away, so if a trade down helps us turn some of our later picks into more top 100s and Beane can still get star players, I'm all for it.

That said, our last build was too light on top end talent. When I look at KC, SF, PHI, BAL, CIN, and even DET they all have way more more top end talent than we did before our purge. As of right now, I feel like we only have 2 legitimate superstars on the team in Allen and Milano. I'd be shocked if we could make a real SB run without at least 4 more. Maybe Kincaid becomes one, Maybe Douglas becomes one.

 

This criticism of Buffalo’s roster is overblown.

 

It's funny... The Athletic came out with an article the other day ranking all 32 NFL rosters ahead of the draft.

 

4. Buffalo Bills

This one makes me a little uneasy, but like Mahomes and the Chiefs, an elite QB (Josh Allen) erases a lot of roster issues. The Bills have had to part with some quality players this offseason, but there are enough solid pieces still around to not panic. The Bills should be mimicking the Chiefs’ plan of the last few years while building around Mahomes and focusing on drafting the best available player at a premier position in the first round. They also have traded away their top wide receiver (Stefon Diggs), similar to what the Chiefs did a few years ago with Tyreek Hill.

[BullBuchanan]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

This criticism of Buffalo’s roster is overblown.

 

It's funny... The Athletic came out with an article the other day ranking all 32 NFL rosters ahead of the draft.

 

4. Buffalo Bills

This one makes me a little uneasy, but like Mahomes and the Chiefs, an elite QB (Josh Allen) erases a lot of roster issues. The Bills have had to part with some quality players this offseason, but there are enough solid pieces still around to not panic. The Bills should be mimicking the Chiefs’ plan of the last few years while building around Mahomes and focusing on drafting the best available player at a premier position in the first round. They also have traded away their top wide receiver (Stefon Diggs), similar to what the Chiefs did a few years ago with Tyreek Hill.

The difference between the bills and chiefs has been small but significant the last few years. While Allen and Diggs were a top pairing in the league. Mahomes and Kelce are a top all-time pairing. Kelce should retire as the unanimous greatest TE of all time and Mahomes has a better than not shot of doing the same at QB.

In addition, KC has a far more opportunistic defense. The combination of Jones, Snead, Karlaftis, and a strong linebacking group put them significantly ahead of the Bills there. We'll see how losing Snead impacts them. I expect it to be a significant adjustment for them, but they're such a well coached team, that I'll be surprised if they don't adjust by getting more production out of the next group of players or simply pivot back to more of a high flying offense if they can get the right playmakers. They do seem more vulnerable on paper than they have at any other point in Mahomes tenure though. Unfortunately, I think the Bills will also be fielding their weakest roster since at least 2016. Take Allen away, and I think it's for sure a bottom 5 squad as it stands right now.

Edited April 20 by BullBuchanan