A visual argument against trading down & for trading up

[Chicken Boo]

13 hours ago, mrags said:

Can we actually try and get some elite talent for once?

 

We go through this every year and some still don't get it.  

 

It's like they want Allen to struggle.

[YattaOkasan]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

So I just thought I'd add to the debate about the relative strength of this WR class compared to the last five (as per @transplantbillsfan's original comparison). I have my boards to go back to so I know what I thought at the time and not with the benefit of hindsight and here it is:

 

2019: 

0 first round grades

1 borderline 1st/2nd grade (AJ Brown)

4 second round grades

4 third round grades 

Total day 1 & 2 grades: 9

 

2020:

3 first round grades (Jeudy, Lamb, Ruggs)

7 second round grades

8 third round grades

Total day 1 & 2 grades: 18

 

2021:

3 first round grades (Chase, Waddle, Smith)

5 second round grades

4 third round grades 

Total day 1 & 2 grades: 12

 

2022:

4 first round grades (Olave, Williams, Wilson, Burks)

1 borderline 1st/2nd grade (London)

7 second round grades

5 third round grades

Total day 1 & 2 grades: 17

 

2023: 

0 first round grades

2 borderline 1st/2nd grades (Addison, JSN)

4 second round grades

7 third round grades

Total day 1 & 2 grades: 13

 

And for comparison based on my current board....

 

2024:

4 first round grades (Harrison, Nabers, Odunze, Legette)

1 borderline 1st/2nd grade (Thomas)

5 second round grades 

9 third round grades

Total day 1 & 2 grades: 19

 

 

Conclusion: Only 2020 is really comparable to me of the last five classes in terms of both high end talent and depth through the first two days. I also think both classes saw something of a drop off after that. The only two guys who made a significant impact taken after round 3 in 2020 were Gabe Davis (who was a third round grade on my board) and Darnell Mooney (who I hadn't graded). I think it is similar with this class. Sometimes you get a day 3 with lots of interesting toolsy underclassmen who haven't quite put it together or you get really productive guys who are smaller or play for small schools. I don't see much of that in this group. So I think where that leaves you is if any class is going to have a Tee Higgins and Michael Pittman out of round 2 it is this one. But they were the first two picks in round 2. I think that (first 4-5 picks of round 2) is the limit of where the Bills can reasonably expect to be and get a potential difference maker in year 1. If they wait to #60 they could get a guy who contributes this year and maybe even develops further over the next 4 years but their chances at that spot of getting a rookie difference maker.... that feels like you are in total pot luck territory. 

 

Would be so happy with legette at 28.  Such a good fit for what we need.  Love how variable his assessment is

[dave mcbride]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

So I just thought I'd add to the debate about the relative strength of this WR class compared to the last five (as per @transplantbillsfan's original comparison). I have my boards to go back to so I know what I thought at the time and not with the benefit of hindsight and here it is:

 

2019: 

0 first round grades

1 borderline 1st/2nd grade (AJ Brown)

4 second round grades

4 third round grades 

Total day 1 & 2 grades: 9

 

2020:

3 first round grades (Jeudy, Lamb, Ruggs)

7 second round grades

8 third round grades

Total day 1 & 2 grades: 18

 

2021:

3 first round grades (Chase, Waddle, Smith)

5 second round grades

4 third round grades 

Total day 1 & 2 grades: 12

 

2022:

4 first round grades (Olave, Williams, Wilson, Burks)

1 borderline 1st/2nd grade (London)

7 second round grades

5 third round grades

Total day 1 & 2 grades: 17

 

2023: 

0 first round grades

2 borderline 1st/2nd grades (Addison, JSN)

4 second round grades

7 third round grades

Total day 1 & 2 grades: 13

 

And for comparison based on my current board....

 

2024:

4 first round grades (Harrison, Nabers, Odunze, Legette)

1 borderline 1st/2nd grade (Thomas)

5 second round grades 

9 third round grades

Total day 1 & 2 grades: 19

 

 

Conclusion: Only 2020 is really comparable to me of the last five classes in terms of both high end talent and depth through the first two days. I also think both classes saw something of a drop off after that. The only two guys who made a significant impact taken after round 3 in 2020 were Gabe Davis (who was a third round grade on my board) and Darnell Mooney (who I hadn't graded). I think it is similar with this class. Sometimes you get a day 3 with lots of interesting toolsy underclassmen who haven't quite put it together or you get really productive guys who are smaller or play for small schools. I don't see much of that in this group. So I think where that leaves you is if any class is going to have a Tee Higgins and Michael Pittman out of round 2 it is this one. But they were the first two picks in round 2. I think that (first 4-5 picks of round 2) is the limit of where the Bills can reasonably expect to be and get a potential difference maker in year 1. If they wait to #60 they could get a guy who contributes this year and maybe even develops further over the next 4 years but their chances at that spot of getting a rookie difference maker.... that feels like you are in total pot luck territory. 

 

I'd simply add that while Deebo Samuel and AJ Brown were second round picks, they cannot be viewed in isolation or only in relation to other receivers. Both SF and TN had first round picks too, and they chose, respectively, Nick Bosa and Jeffrey Simmons. Those were hardly bad decisions. 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I'd simply add that while Deebo Samuel and AJ Brown were second round picks, they cannot be viewed in isolation or only in relation to other receivers. Both SF and TN had first round picks too, and they chose, respectively, Nick Bosa and Jeffrey Simmons. Those were hardly bad decisions. 

 

Yep. Elite players in their own right. 

[RyanC883]

this does demonstrate that there are more potential winners in Rd. 1 than later rounds.  We wait till Rd. 2 or 3, we better take 3 WRs to hit on 1.  

 

We really need to grab a top 3-4 in Rd. 1, and then try again in Rd. 2.  The later parts of the draft appears filled with 1T DT, rotation Edge, backup OG/C, and S.  

[nedboy7]

The way to solve this is to pick a WR in the 1st and 2nd rounds. 

[BillsFan4]

18 hours ago, Tortured Soul said:

Using your hits and misses, a 52% success rate in Round 1 (11 of 21) vs. a 27% success rate in Rounds 2 and 3 (14 of 52).

 

 So, you’d be better off trading down, getting a 2 and a 3 for a 1, and giving yourself a cumulative 54% chance at success.

There was a really interesting article in the athletic on the subject of trading down the other day.

 

https://theathletic.com/5416007/2024/04/16/nfl-drafting-methods-insight-massey-thaler/
 

Quote

The paper, “Overconfidence vs. Market Efficiency in the National Football League,” had been published six years earlier by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Meers hadn’t read it, hadn’t even heard of it, but it was draft-related and he’d long been draft-interested.

 

Meers wasn’t your typical draftnik. Spouting opinions on prospects did not captivate him. The allure lay in the idea that you could trade picks. Should you? Why or why not? And how do you assign value to each pick?

 

Cowboys executives were exploring similar questions internally, and that’s how they found the paper Meers was now dissecting on their behalf.

First, he wondered, who wrote this?

 

Richard Thaler, an economics professor at the University of Chicago who would win a Nobel Prize in 2017, and Cade Massey, a business professor then at Duke University.

 

 

Quote

Their hypothesis?

 

Teams overestimate their abilities to delineate between stars and flops, and because of that they overvalue the “right to choose” in the draft.

 

And what were the findings after examining every draft pick and trade from 1988 to 2004?

 

Teams massively overestimate their abilities to delineate between stars and flops, and because of that they heavily overvalue the “right to choose” in the draft.

 

Meers combed through the paper and uncovered some highlights:

 

- The treasured No. 1 pick in the draft is actually the least valuable in the first round, according to the surplus value a team can create with each pick.

- Across all rounds, the probability that a player starts more games than the next player chosen at his position is just 53 percent.

- Teams generated a 174 percent return on trades by forgoing a pick this year for picks next year.

 

Thaler and Massey suggested that teams should accumulate picks by trading back and into the future more often. The more darts you have, the better your chance of eventually hitting the bull’s-eye.

 

 

Edited April 19 by BillsFan4

[26TrapDraw]

17 hours ago, Gunsgoodtime said:

And not a single one of those was a Buffalo pick.  Thats 5 years in the top 3 rounds. The wr position has been so grossly undervalued by Mcbeane it should be malpractice 

Which further solidifies the thought they may move down and pick up a pick . That’s not Beanes style though

[strive_for_five_guy]

13 hours ago, mrags said:

I agree on that. But I still think Odunze and Nabors will be clearly better than most of this class. I’m not sold on MHJ actually. And of course a lot has to do with where guys get drafted, their situations, their teams, their QBs, their coaches. Someone will do a lot better in Buffalo than they would on Vegas for example imo. 

From the videos I’ve seen, I like the athletic upside of Brian Thomas Jr. more than MHJ.  But like you said, lots of variables will play into each guy’s NFL success.

[transplantbillsfan]

Another point... while I mention "hits..." all that really means is that you have a pretty decent starter.

 

We're hoping for more than a decent starter, though.  We want a WR who can be a pro-bowler if not an All-Pro, right?

 

I've been thinking a bit about this since I started the thread, because I think the reality is we all want a DUDE at WR, not a JAG.  So I googled it to see if there was any data out there.  Found this on a reddit board and it looks like someone else actually did the work.  I cross-checked it and looks accurate. If you go back several years to give WRs over the span of 2000-2017 (18 years total), here are Pro Bowl %s for those years slotted by draft pick in the top 100:

 

Pick/ Pro-Bowl%

1-10/ 55%

11-20/ 44%

21-30/ 33%

31-40/ 24%

41-50/ 18%

51-60/ 16%

61-70/ 16%

71-80/ 9%

81-90/ 10%

91-100/ 12%

 

Plus, The Athletic examined it over a span of 10 years a couple years ago by round and position

https://theathletic.com/3242308/2022/04/13/nfl-draft-analysis-2022/

Wide Receivers only

1st round 42.4%

2nd-3rd round 36.4%

4+ round 21.2%

Edited April 19 by transplantbillsfan

[transplantbillsfan]

15 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

More, looking at the lists of top three guys in the draft you put up, one question occurs.

 

How many Super Bowl winners are there?

 

Again, a team that gives up top-level draft assets to trade up for  a top WR has never won a Super Bowl.

 

Never.

 

Correlative, not causal.

 

Are you really trying to argue that the Bengals are not winning a Super Bowl because they drafted Jamarr Chase? Has it been CeDee Lamb holding back the Cowboys over the last few years?  That the Falcons didn't win the Super Bowl because they drafted Julio Jones?  That Drake London is holding the Falcons back right now or Garrett Wilson is doing the same for the Jets?

 

It's the QB, first and foremost, who's obviously the most critical piece to any team winning the Super Bowl.

 

Buffalo has their QB for the next 5-10+ years.

 

When did Josh Allen turn into an Elite QB?  Obviously (and Josh directly said this yesterday) it happened once he got an Elite WR in Diggs.

 

What do we no longer have???

 

You alluded to me not being a Bills fan and just being a Josh Allen fan... that's pretty rich coming from the guy who really doesn't do anything on this message board other than drop grenades and plant landmines all over the place.

 

I'm absolutely not without my flaws, but you painted me so horribly wrong.  If anything, I'm a Bills homer with Bills colored glasses.  I know how that's how some see me and I'm fine with it.  Your assessment just proves you're not very observant... or maybe you just let your anger cloud your judgment too much.

[Beck Water]

12 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Beane knows all of this already.  He has what...20 1st round grades on players.

 

While it's pretty much a given that Beane is going to know all this and more....it doesn't follow that because he has 20 1st round grades, he needs to trade up, right?

 

You can bet on it that different teams have different players with 1st round grades.  So the chances are very high that all through the 1st round, a player the Bills have a 1st round grade on will be available.  Now that said....I don't believe that any GM is truly a "best player available" guy with no concern for the valuation of different positions AND the specific holes on his team.

[GoBills808]

16 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

More, looking at the lists of top three guys in the draft you put up, one question occurs.

 

How many Super Bowl winners are there?

 

Again, a team that gives up top-level draft assets to trade up for  a top WR has never won a Super Bowl.

 

Never.

ridiculous take

 

the Bills gave up top level draft assets to trade up for Josh Allen who has never won a super bowl

 

i suppose you'd call that a mistake

[Beck Water]

51 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Another point... while I mention "hits..." all that really means is that you have a pretty decent starter.

 

We're hoping for more than a decent starter, though.  We want a WR who can be a pro-bowler if not an All-Pro, right?

 

I've been thinking a bit about this since I started the thread, because I think the reality is we all want a DUDE at WR, not a JAG.  So I googled it to see if there was any data out there.  Found this on a reddit board and it looks like someone else actually did the work.  I cross-checked it and looks accurate. If you go back several years to give WRs over the span of 2000-2017 (18 years total), here are Pro Bowl %s for those years slotted by draft pick in the top 100:

 

Pick/ Pro-Bowl%

1-10/ 55%

11-20/ 44%

21-30/ 33%

31-40/ 24%

41-50/ 18%

51-60/ 16%

61-70/ 16%

71-80/ 9%

81-90/ 10%

91-100/ 12%

 

Plus, The Athletic examined it over a span of 10 years a couple years ago by round and position

https://theathletic.com/3242308/2022/04/13/nfl-draft-analysis-2022/

Wide Receivers only

1st round 42.4%

2nd-3rd round 36.4%

4+ round 21.2%

 

Really good finds, Thanks.

 

I'm not sure I 100% buy pro-bowls as a great metric now-a-days when it seems to have become some kind of popularity contest.

 

What it comes down to is opportunity cost, and I'm not invested enough to fully lay this out as a mathematical problem but here are the trade offs:

 

On the one hand: You improve your chances of landing "The Man"  from 33/100 to 55/100 moving up from pick 28 to pick 10 so 22%.

 

Against that you set that Pick 10 ~1300 and Pick 28 ~660 so you need to essentially provide the equivalent of 640 points.  Since next year's picks devalue about a round, that might be next year's 1st PLUS this year's 2nd (300).  That represents 2 talented players (1 next year, 1 this) who can help fill other team needs on a cost-controlled basis.

 

Meanwhile, even in the top-10 picks, there's still a 45/100 chance you won't pick The Man, but now you've not fizzed there, but you've lost your chance to reload and fire again.

 

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

ridiculous take

 

the Bills gave up top level draft assets to trade up for Josh Allen who has never won a super bowl

 

i suppose you'd call that a mistake

 

I hesitate to speak for @Thurman#1, but it was my understanding of his intended point that "Franchise QB" is a position worth risking the opportunity cost for as without a franchise QB, it's tough sledding to get to the playoffs much less championship....

 

....but that trading the farm for a hoped-for #1 WR is not the same impact to offset the opportunity cost.

 

Please correct me if I'm mistaken, @Thurman#1

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Really good finds, Thanks.

 

I'm not sure I 100% buy pro-bowls as a great metric now-a-days when it seems to have become some kind of popularity contest.

 

What it comes down to is opportunity cost, and I'm not invested enough to fully lay this out as a mathematical problem but here are the trade offs:

 

On the one hand: You improve your chances of landing "The Man"  from 33/100 to 55/100 moving up from pick 28 to pick 10 so 22%.

 

Against that you set that Pick 10 ~1300 and Pick 28 ~660 so you need to essentially provide the equivalent of 640 points.  Since next year's picks devalue about a round, that might be next year's 1st PLUS this year's 2nd (300).  That represents 2 talented players (1 next year, 1 this) who can help fill other team needs on a cost-controlled basis.

 

Meanwhile, even in the top-10 picks, there's still a 45/100 chance you won't pick The Man, but now you've not fizzed there, but you've lost your chance to reload and fire again.

 

 

I hesitate to speak for @Thurman#1, but it was my understanding of his intended point that "Franchise QB" is a position worth risking the opportunity cost for as without a franchise QB, it's tough sledding to get to the playoffs much less championship....

 

....but that trading the farm for a hoped-for #1 WR is not the same impact to offset the opportunity cost.

 

Please correct me if I'm mistaken, @Thurman#1

ok do you think the Falcons regret trading for Julio Jones lol

 

of course not, they got one of the best wideouts in NFL history. The fact that he didn't win a Super Bowl is completely irrelevant. Lots of great players never win Super Bowls and lots of mediocre ones do. That doesn't mean you want fewer great players and more mediocre ones on your roster

[transplantbillsfan]

43 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

ok do you think the Falcons regret trading for Julio Jones lol

 

of course not, they got one of the best wideouts in NFL history. The fact that he didn't win a Super Bowl is completely irrelevant. Lots of great players never win Super Bowls and lots of mediocre ones do. That doesn't mean you want fewer great players and more mediocre ones on your roster

 

I guarantee the argument will be that the Falcons didn't win a Super Bowl.

 

I agree it's a completely ridiculous argument.

 

And this resource argument some are making also neglects the potential in a cost-controlled CHEAP #1 WR (the 2nd most expensive position) for at least 4 years.  That $$$ savings should be part of the resource argument as well.  Remember... Buffalo is going to suddenly get a lot more CAP space in future years and Free Agency is another aspect of team building.

 

Plus... 10 draft picks this year + 9 draft picks next year after our comp picks.

 

Worse case scenario is the 2011 trade model for Julio Jones.  Falcons traded their 2011 1st, 2nd, 4th & 2012 1st & 4th.

 

This would still leave us with 7 total picks in this year's draft and next year's draft.  Plus, next year's draft we'd still have 2 2nd rounders... one of which very well might be in the early to late 30s.

 

That one is I think the steepest price, though.

 

I think the Lions trade up for Jameson Williams and the Chiefs trade up for Mahomes are other models to look at that might be even better.

[BullBuchanan]

I think it's pretty important that they get as many top 100 picks as possible. We aren't 1 player away, so if a trade down helps us turn some of our later picks into more top 100s and Beane can still get star players, I'm all for it.

That said, our last build was too light on top end talent. When I look at KC, SF, PHI, BAL, CIN, and even DET they all have way more more top end talent than we did before our purge. As of right now, I feel like we only have 2 legitimate superstars on the team in Allen and Milano. I'd be shocked if we could make a real SB run without at least 4 more. Maybe Kincaid becomes one, Maybe Douglas becomes one.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

On 4/18/2024 at 5:36 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

 

This lacks a lot of context.  Not every draft is equal, some drafts are top heavy and weak outside the top guys like 2021 for example.  Then others were considered weak for top tier prospects, but very deep for 2nd tier prospects outside round 1 like 2019.  

 

The hit rates and miss rates very much follow the patterns of the draft strength/weakness at the position.  So this doesn't IMHO dictate a model to follow and really shows you need to understand the strength and weakness of the position in each given draft to know what you need to do if you want to address WR.  

 

In a year like 2022 or 2021 where the draft going in was seen as a top heavy WR draft and weak after that, you better making a move to go get a guy.  But in a year like 2019, where there wasn't a lot of highly graded guys but a lot of strength in the depth, you are better letting it come to you or even trading back instead of reaching for a N'Keal Harry.  

 

This is a very deep draft, there are going to be a lot of guys who become good players outside the first round this draft.

 

The other thing to compare is how does this compare with other positions? Is the hit/miss rate on edge rushers or CB's around the same.  If I were to bet on it, I'd say they are.

 

Just reading an article today quoting Beane as saying there are only around 25 players the Bills have first round grades on.  But 32 teams will be drafting in the 1st round, so if Beane grades reflect how other teams also see it, there will be some misses there.

[MPT]

23 hours ago, Gunsgoodtime said:

And not a single one of those was a Buffalo pick.  Thats 5 years in the top 3 rounds. The wr position has been so grossly undervalued by Mcbeane it should be malpractice 

 

He used a 1st round pick to get our WR1 who was arguably the most productive receiver in the league during his tenure with the Bills. We had more pressing needs after that. You'll get your WR in at least one of the first three rounds this year.

[Beck Water]

20 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Buffalo at this moment only has 2 true NEEDS on the team. A WR and RB for the roster.

The rest of the things you had there arenwants... McBeane may disagree.

 

Well, I suspect Beane does disagree, though he won't do so publicly.

 

I know I do.  I would personally say we have needs at DT, DE, and S at minimum; some might add CB.  Yes, I know we have two safeties on the team, but  based on performance on the field I am not comfortable with Taylor Rapp and Mike Edwards starting at safety, and I think both our backups are career backups at this point.  We need to draft a guy with upside we can develop.

 

If that's not a need because we can pencil in names, then hey - we can pencil in names that have played many games at WR, too, so I guess that's not a need.

 

Quality matters.

Similar with DT and DE.  Da'Quan is on a 1 yr deal and hasn't made it through the last 2 seasons.  Draft a DT if there's a decent one anywhere near us.  DE: Casey Toohill is a career journeyman at DE who has finally, after 7 years in the league, made it to where he started 8 games last year.  Right now at DE we got Rousseau, Epenesa, the Ghost of Von Miller, and Toohill.  *shudder* I'd say that 's a need.

 

14 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

So I just thought I'd add to the debate about the relative strength of this WR class compared to the last five (as per @transplantbillsfan's original comparison). I have my boards to go back to so I know what I thought at the time and not with the benefit of hindsight and here it is:

(....)

Conclusion: Only 2020 is really comparable to me of the last five classes in terms of both high end talent and depth through the first two days. I also think both classes saw something of a drop off after that. The only two guys who made a significant impact taken after round 3 in 2020 were Gabe Davis (who was a third round grade on my board) and Darnell Mooney (who I hadn't graded). I think it is similar with this class. Sometimes you get a day 3 with lots of interesting toolsy underclassmen who haven't quite put it together or you get really productive guys who are smaller or play for small schools. I don't see much of that in this group. So I think where that leaves you is if any class is going to have a Tee Higgins and Michael Pittman out of round 2 it is this one. But they were the first two picks in round 2. I think that (first 4-5 picks of round 2) is the limit of where the Bills can reasonably expect to be and get a potential difference maker in year 1. If they wait to #60 they could get a guy who contributes this year and maybe even develops further over the next 4 years but their chances at that spot of getting a rookie difference maker.... that feels like you are in total pot luck territory. 

 

 

I got to say that's an impressive body of work, @GunnerBill.  Just kudos for putting in that effort, year after year.

 

As far as your comment I bolded above, I think Beane said something pretty similar in his presser - I can't find it on a fast run through, but it was something to the effect of the quality probably continues into the initial part of round 2 then tails off after that.

Edited April 20 by Beck Water