A visual argument against trading down & for trading up

[transplantbillsfan]

5 years of drafting in round 1 separated from 5 years of drafting in rounds 2 & 3.  It's just round they were drafted and the order they were drafted.

 

1st Round Wide Receivers

2023

1 SEA Jaxon Smith-Njigba

1 LAC Quentin Johnston

1 BAL Zay Flowers

1 MIN Jordan Addison

2022

 

1 ATL Drake London

1 NYJ Garrett Wilson

1 NOR Chris Olave

1 DET Jameson Williams

1 WAS Jahan Dotson

1 TEN Treylon Burks

2021

1 CIN Ja'Marr Chase

1 MIA Jaylen Waddle

1 PHI DeVonta Smith

1 NYG Kadarius Toney

1 BAL Rashod Bateman

2020

1 LVR Henry Ruggs III

1 DEN Jerry JeudyWR

1 DAL CeeDee Lamb

1 PHI Jalen Reagor

1 MIN Justin Jefferson

1 SFO Brandon Aiyuk

2019

1 BAL Marquise Brown

1 NWE N'Keal Harry

 

2nd & 3rd Round Wide Receivers

2023

2 CAR Jonathan Mingo

2 GB Jayden Reed

2 KC Rashee Rice

2 DEN Marvin Mims

3 HOU Nathaniel Dell

3 NYG Jalin Hyatt

3 CLE Cedric Tillman

3 IND Josh Downs

3 ARI Michael Wilson

3 LVR Tre Tucker

2022

2 GNB Christian Watson

2 NYG Wan'Dale Robinson

2 HOU John Metchie

2 NWE Tyquan Thornton

2 PIT George Pickens

2 IND Alec Pierce

2 KAN Skyy Moore

3 CHI Velus Jones Jr.

3 DAL Jalen Tolbert

3 CLE David Bell

3 SFO Danny Gray

2021

2 NYJ Elijah Moore

2 ARI Rondale Moore

2 SEA D'Wayne Eskridge

2 LAR Tutu Atwell

2 CAR Terrace Marshall Jr.

3 LAC Josh Palmer

3 WAS Dyami Brown

3 GNB Amari Rodgers

3 HOU Nico Collins

3 CLE Anthony Schwartz

2020

2 CIN Tee Higgins

2 IND Michael Pittman Jr.

2 JAX Laviska Shenault Jr.

2 DEN KJ Hamler

2 PIT Chase Claypool

2 LAR Van Jefferson

2 NYJ Denzel Mims

3 LVR Lynn Bowden Jr.

3 LVR Bryan Edwards

3 BAL Devin Duvernay

2019

2 SFO Deebo Samuel

2 TEN A.J. Brown

2 KAN Mecole Hardman

2 PHI JJ Arcega-Whiteside

2 IND Parris Campbell

2 ARI Andy Isabella

2 SEA D.K. Metcalf

3 PIT Diontae Johnson

3 SFO Jalen Hurd

3 WAS Terry McLaurin

3 BAL Miles Boykin

 

 

Bolded guys are hits... obviously in my opinion. 50% hit rate for round 1 over the last 5 years along with several I think we might qualify as TBD (JSN, Johnston, Williams) and the unfortunate situation of Ruggs who was actually on his way to being a hit.

 

There's an even stronger argument for getting one of the top 3 guys in the draft.  The hit rate there is 60%.  If JSN & Johnston pan out, that hit rate goes up to 73%.  If Ruggs didn't end up in prison and he continued on his upward trajectory in 2021, that hit rate for a top 3 Wide Receiver in the last 5 drafts goes up to 80%...

 

think about that... 80% hit rate potentially over the last 5 years if you just draft one of the first 3 WRs in the draft???  Rome Odunze, anyone????

 

Then you have the 2nd and 3rd round guys.  27% hit rate, very few TBDs (Mims, Hyatt... anyone else???) and a bunch of clear busts with some guys bouncing around the league if they're even still in it.

[TBBills Fan]

 

I was expecting pictures

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

I think its hard to rank where the players ended up getting picked and determining hit rate.  Ideally you would compare similar players and profiles and the grades that you have on them and look there at where you might have been wrong.  What makes Collins a hit and bateman a miss?  etc. 

 

Sometimes you'll be like - bro had trash QBs, or trash coaches, or whatever.  But thats i think how i would look at it.  

[Alphadawg7]

53 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

5 years of drafting in round 1 separated from 5 years of drafting in rounds 2 & 3.  It's just round they were drafted and the order they were drafted.

 

1st Round Wide Receivers

2023

1 SEA Jaxon Smith-Njigba

1 LAC Quentin Johnston

1 BAL Zay Flowers

1 MIN Jordan Addison

2022

 

1 ATL Drake London

1 NYJ Garrett Wilson

1 NOR Chris Olave

1 DET Jameson Williams

1 WAS Jahan Dotson

1 TEN Treylon Burks

2021

1 CIN Ja'Marr Chase

1 MIA Jaylen Waddle

1 PHI DeVonta Smith

1 NYG Kadarius Toney

1 BAL Rashod Bateman

2020

1 LVR Henry Ruggs III

1 DEN Jerry JeudyWR

1 DAL CeeDee Lamb

1 PHI Jalen Reagor

1 MIN Justin Jefferson

1 SFO Brandon Aiyuk

2019

1 BAL Marquise Brown

1 NWE N'Keal Harry

 

2nd & 3rd Round Wide Receivers

2023

2 CAR Jonathan Mingo

2 GB Jayden Reed

2 KC Rashee Rice

2 DEN Marvin Mims

3 HOU Nathaniel Dell

3 NYG Jalin Hyatt

3 CLE Cedric Tillman

3 IND Josh Downs

3 ARI Michael Wilson

3 LVR Tre Tucker

2022

2 GNB Christian Watson

2 NYG Wan'Dale Robinson

2 HOU John Metchie

2 NWE Tyquan Thornton

2 PIT George Pickens

2 IND Alec Pierce

2 KAN Skyy Moore

3 CHI Velus Jones Jr.

3 DAL Jalen Tolbert

3 CLE David Bell

3 SFO Danny Gray

2021

2 NYJ Elijah Moore

2 ARI Rondale Moore

2 SEA D'Wayne Eskridge

2 LAR Tutu Atwell

2 CAR Terrace Marshall Jr.

3 LAC Josh Palmer

3 WAS Dyami Brown

3 GNB Amari Rodgers

3 HOU Nico Collins

3 CLE Anthony Schwartz

2020

2 CIN Tee Higgins

2 IND Michael Pittman Jr.

2 JAX Laviska Shenault Jr.

2 DEN KJ Hamler

2 PIT Chase Claypool

2 LAR Van Jefferson

2 NYJ Denzel Mims

3 LVR Lynn Bowden Jr.

3 LVR Bryan Edwards

3 BAL Devin Duvernay

2019

2 SFO Deebo Samuel

2 TEN A.J. Brown

2 KAN Mecole Hardman

2 PHI JJ Arcega-Whiteside

2 IND Parris Campbell

2 ARI Andy Isabella

2 SEA D.K. Metcalf

3 PIT Diontae Johnson

3 SFO Jalen Hurd

3 WAS Terry McLaurin

3 BAL Miles Boykin

 

 

Bolded guys are hits... obviously in my opinion. 50% hit rate for round 1 over the last 5 years along with several I think we might qualify as TBD (JSN, Johnston, Williams) and the unfortunate situation of Ruggs who was actually on his way to being a hit.

 

There's an even stronger argument for getting one of the top 3 guys in the draft.  The hit rate there is 60%.  If JSN & Johnston pan out, that hit rate goes up to 73%.  If Ruggs didn't end up in prison and he continued on his upward trajectory in 2021, that hit rate for a top 3 Wide Receiver in the last 5 drafts goes up to 80%...

 

think about that... 80% hit rate potentially over the last 5 years if you just draft one of the first 3 WRs in the draft???  Rome Odunze, anyone????

 

Then you have the 2nd and 3rd round guys.  27% hit rate, very few TBDs (Mims, Hyatt... anyone else???) and a bunch of clear busts with some guys bouncing around the league if they're even still in it.

 

This lacks a lot of context.  Not every draft is equal, some drafts are top heavy and weak outside the top guys like 2021 for example.  Then others were considered weak for top tier prospects, but very deep for 2nd tier prospects outside round 1 like 2019.  

 

The hit rates and miss rates very much follow the patterns of the draft strength/weakness at the position.  So this doesn't IMHO dictate a model to follow and really shows you need to understand the strength and weakness of the position in each given draft to know what you need to do if you want to address WR.  

 

In a year like 2022 or 2021 where the draft going in was seen as a top heavy WR draft and weak after that, you better making a move to go get a guy.  But in a year like 2019, where there wasn't a lot of highly graded guys but a lot of strength in the depth, you are better letting it come to you or even trading back instead of reaching for a N'Keal Harry.  

 

This is a very deep draft, there are going to be a lot of guys who become good players outside the first round this draft.

Edited April 18 by Alphadawg7

[BuffaloBillyG]

46 minutes ago, TBBills Fan said:

 

I was expecting pictures

A pie chart may have convinced me. 

[transplantbillsfan]

52 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

This lacks a lot of context.  Not every draft is equal, some drafts are top heavy and weak outside the top guys like 2021 for example.  Then others were considered weak for top tier prospects, but very deep for 2nd tier prospects outside round 1 like 2019.  

 

The hit rates and miss rates very much follow the patterns of the draft strength/weakness at the position.  So this doesn't IMHO dictate a model to follow and really shows you need to understand the strength and weakness of the position in each given draft to know what you need to do if you want to address WR.  

 

In a year like 2022 or 2021 where the draft going in was seen as a top heavy WR draft and weak after that, you better making a move to go get a guy.  But in a year like 2019, where there wasn't a lot of highly graded guys but a lot of strength in the depth, you are better letting it come to you or even trading back instead of reaching for a N'Keal Harry.  

 

This is a very deep draft, there are going to be a lot of guys who become good players outside the first round this draft.

 

So give us some historically deep draft classes.  I feel like you're using some revisionist history here so I'll call your bluff.  The 2021 and 2020 classes were also considered deep.

 

Just look back at some of the narrative from the 2021 class alone:

 

Excerpt from The Athletic regarding the 2021 top 20 WRs in the class:

https://theathletic.com/2405616/2021/02/24/top-20-receivers-for-2021-nfl-draft-jamarr-chase-jaylen-waddle-top-talented-class/

The volume of talent at receiver rivals last year’s, which set a record with 13 receivers drafted in the first two rounds. I don’t think this year’s group will break that mark. But I do believe this class will have more receivers drafted in the top three rounds than last year’s class (15).

 

From PFF regarding the 2021 class:

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2021-nfl-draft-ranking-wide-receiver-prospects-lsu-jamarr-chase

The sheer depth is also incredible. For the second year in a row, several receivers will be selected in the first round, and they will be joined by a host of impact rookies taken on Day 2 and Day 3 of the draft, such is the array of talent available.

 

Sound familiar?

[dave mcbride]

3 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

So give us some historically deep draft classes.  I feel like you're using some revisionist history here so I'll call your bluff.  The 2021 and 2020 classes were also considered deep.

 

Just look back at some of the narrative from the 2021 class alone:

 

Excerpt from The Athletic regarding the 2021 top 20 WRs in the class:

https://theathletic.com/2405616/2021/02/24/top-20-receivers-for-2021-nfl-draft-jamarr-chase-jaylen-waddle-top-talented-class/

The volume of talent at receiver rivals last year’s, which set a record with 13 receivers drafted in the first two rounds. I don’t think this year’s group will break that mark. But I do believe this class will have more receivers drafted in the top three rounds than last year’s class (15).

 

From PFF regarding the 2021 class:

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2021-nfl-draft-ranking-wide-receiver-prospects-lsu-jamarr-chase

The sheer depth is also incredible. For the second year in a row, several receivers will be selected in the first round, and they will be joined by a host of impact rookies taken on Day 2 and Day 3 of the draft, such is the array of talent available.

 

Sound familiar?

For deep WR drafts, just look at 1996. Yeah, a long time ago, but it was ridiculous. 

[Tortured Soul]

Using your hits and misses, a 52% success rate in Round 1 (11 of 21) vs. a 27% success rate in Rounds 2 and 3 (14 of 52).

 

 So, you’d be better off trading down, getting a 2 and a 3 for a 1, and giving yourself a cumulative 54% chance at success.

[Alphadawg7]

5 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

So give us some historically deep draft classes.  I feel like you're using some revisionist history here so I'll call your bluff.  The 2021 and 2020 classes were also considered deep.

 

Just look back at some of the narrative from the 2021 class alone:

 

Excerpt from The Athletic regarding the 2021 top 20 WRs in the class:

https://theathletic.com/2405616/2021/02/24/top-20-receivers-for-2021-nfl-draft-jamarr-chase-jaylen-waddle-top-talented-class/

The volume of talent at receiver rivals last year’s, which set a record with 13 receivers drafted in the first two rounds. I don’t think this year’s group will break that mark. But I do believe this class will have more receivers drafted in the top three rounds than last year’s class (15).

 

From PFF regarding the 2021 class:

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2021-nfl-draft-ranking-wide-receiver-prospects-lsu-jamarr-chase

The sheer depth is also incredible. For the second year in a row, several receivers will be selected in the first round, and they will be joined by a host of impact rookies taken on Day 2 and Day 3 of the draft, such is the array of talent available.

 

Sound familiar?

 

I mean I gave you examples...and I definitely do not agree about 2021.  I did not find that to be a great draft in the day 2 and day 3 range at WR.  

 

So all I am saying, every draft is very different.  You can't just look at a hit rate from one draft and then equally compare it to the hit rate of the next draft which has totally different level of talent in it, not to mention, total different level of complexity too on how the draft falls based on the strength and weaknesses of other positions affecting teams decisions too.

 

[TBBills Fan]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

A pie chart may have convinced me. 

[transplantbillsfan]

35 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

For deep WR drafts, just look at 1996. Yeah, a long time ago, but it was ridiculous. 

 

Okay... but I think it just solidifies my point further.

 

1st round

1 1 NYJ Keyshawn Johnson

1 7 NWE Terry Glenn

1 18 STL Eddie Kennison

1 19 IND Marvin Harrison HOF

1 24 BUF Eric Moulds

 

2nd & 3rd round

2 31 NYJ Alex Van *****

2 34 NYG Amani Toomer

2 41 SDG Bryan Still

2 43 CAR Muhsin Muhammad

2 52 CHI Bobby Engram

2 56 GNB Derrick Mayes

 

3 89 SFO Terrell Owens HOF

3 94 DAL Stepfret Williams

[transplantbillsfan]

22 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I mean I gave you examples...and I definitely do not agree about 2021.  I did not find that to be a great draft in the day 2 and day 3 range at WR.  

 

Again... hindsight is 20/20 here.  You can say this yourself, but 2021 was viewed as a deep class.

 

22 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

So all I am saying, every draft is very different.  You can't just look at a hit rate from one draft and then equally compare it to the hit rate of the next draft which has totally different level of talent in it, not to mention, total different level of complexity too on how the draft falls based on the strength and weaknesses of other positions affecting teams decisions too.

 

 

I didn't just look at the hit rate from one draft.  I looked at the hit rate of 5 drafts.  And someone just asked me to add in 1996, which was labelled as "ridiculous."

 

1st round looks like an 80% hit rate... arguably 100%.

 

2nd and 3rd rounds... well... why don't you tell us who the hits are.  TO????  Absolutely! Ahmani Toomer & Muhsin Muhammed?  Yep!

 

That's 37.5%.  Better than the other years I looked at, but there's a wider gap now between the 1st round and 2nd & 3rd round WRs.

 

Anyone else in that draft from 2nd and 3rd round that year that would bring that up more?

 

Go find a draft where this doesn't play out.  Sure seems like my original premise is correct.

[Gunsgoodtime]

And not a single one of those was a Buffalo pick.  Thats 5 years in the top 3 rounds. The wr position has been so grossly undervalued by Mcbeane it should be malpractice 

[SoCal Deek]

Where’s the list of guys that would cause this board to light up with page after page of “Get ‘er Done Beane!” ?

[The Wiz]

32 minutes ago, Gunsgoodtime said:

And not a single one of those was a Buffalo pick.  Thats 5 years in the top 3 rounds. The wr position has been so grossly undervalued by Mcbeane it should be malpractice 

Gotta get after the QB first.  That why I'm expecting a DE in the first round.  Trust the process (I mean McDermott). 🙄

 

 

[mrags]

Looking at this list, the one thing that really comes to mind is how many people wanted Lavishka Shanault and boy he is just not good. 

[K D]

The only sure thing WR in this draft is MHJ. Bills have 0% chance at getting him. Even if they mortgaged their future to somehow get to 8-10 to pick Odunze, he's not a sure thing imo. Obviously very talented but so were some of those other guys as mentioned. He might have a good career but maybe not superstar level.

 

Don't worry, I only have the Bills winning 9-10 games this year. They might have a top 20 pick next year plus Vikings 2 and their own 2 means 3 picks in the top 50 or so. I think they should let the chips fall as they may this year and reload next year.

[Alphadawg7]

46 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Again... hindsight is 20/20 here.  You can say this yourself, but 2021 was viewed as a deep class.

 

 

I didn't just look at the hit rate from one draft.  I looked at the hit rate of 5 drafts.  And someone just asked me to add in 1996, which was labelled as "ridiculous."

 

1st round looks like an 80% hit rate... arguably 100%.

 

2nd and 3rd rounds... well... why don't you tell us who the hits are.  TO????  Absolutely! Ahmani Toomer & Muhsin Muhammed?  Yep!

 

That's 37.5%.  Better than the other years I looked at, but there's a wider gap now between the 1st round and 2nd & 3rd round WRs.

 

Anyone else in that draft from 2nd and 3rd round that year that would bring that up more?

 

Go find a draft where this doesn't play out.  Sure seems like my original premise is correct.

 

Well I mean it doesn't take a leap in logic to know the hit rate is higher in round 1, that is true for every position and the nature of drafting higher graded prospects.    

 

Again, my main point is that there is context to every draft that this type of comparison does not account for which I have already mentioned, and that also includes inaccurate assessments of said drafts going into the draft.  Where a class proves a lot stronger or worse than was predicted prior to the draft. 

 

All good, just my 2 cents

9 minutes ago, mrags said:

Looking at this list, the one thing that really comes to mind is how many people wanted Lavishka Shanault and boy he is just not good. 

 

Oddly some people still wanted him this offseason lol...goes to show how long draft hype can survive like a long dwindling candle for some of these guys

[Pete]

A numerical argument for trading back and not trading up

 

Bills cap space= $2,898,830

 

That is for 51 players, we would like to have 90 going into camp.

90-51=49 players still needed

 

Bills need 2 WR, 1 RB2, PR, Edge, S, DL, C= 8 players needed, who will get high reps this season.

Most every special teams position is needed.

 

draft picks 28, 60, 128, 133, 144, 160, 163, 200, 204, 248.

Bills only have 2 picks in the first 127.  We do not have ammo to move up high.

We have too many needs for prominent roles to give away precious draft assets.

Considering our many needs, IMO Beane would be better trading back, and stocking up on top 100 draft picks

[strive_for_five_guy]

A written argument for why we should trade up: