Brand Beane Press Conf 4/18

[BobbyC81]

It was 7 years ago, but the Bills had the 10th pick in the 2017 draft and KC the 27th.  To swap picks, it cost KC their 2018 first round pick and a 3rd.

[SoonerBillsFan]

15 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

If he is speaking the truth… I find it interesting that he hasn’t spoken to the Top 10 teams yet …. Nothing wrong with at least asking the price … 

 

 

Arizona said 3 #1 picks is what they possibly want. 

15 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

https://www.buffalobills.com/video/your-team-has-to-evolve-bills-general-manager-brandon-beane-speaks-ahead-of-the-2024-nfl-draft-buffalo-bills

 

Take aways:

1. I do not think Beane is even thinking about moving into the top 10 to get one of the big 3 WR. 
   1. He said he would take any call, but he also said teams in the top 10 don't generally call teams down at 28.  
   2. When asked about him calling them, he mocked them even wanting to take his call and made it clear he hasn't called them.  
   3. Worth noting as well, Bills have no reported visits or meetings with MHJ, Nabers, or Odunze.  We did reportedly meet once with Thomas.  
   4. He is not a fan at all of moving a future first, which I will cover in comments below.  
2. I think he made it pretty clear as well that we are not going to be trading for a proven guy such as Aiyuk or Higgins as many have been wanting.  
   1. Specifically said when we traded for Stef, Allen was an ascending player and the offense needed a guy like that.  
   2. But that now with Allen ascended to the player he is, that is not a requirement and not necessary.
3. He made it clear he is very comfortable making a small trade up to make sure he can get the guy he covets.  So if there is one he wants where a small move up to go get him is on the table, I think he will pull that trigger. 
4. He also made it very clear he really does NOT want to move next years 1st, but did admit he would if the deal made sense to do it.  
   1. Referenced regretting those kind of moves in the next draft when they did them in Carolina when the next draft came and the guy they gave up that first didn't really get them over the top.
5. He also doesn't plan to move the 2nd we got for Diggs, but wouldn't rule it out if they felt the right deal was there.  
6. Between Josh, McD and Beane interviews, I think it was pretty clear they have a lot of confidence in the core of Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid, Knox, and Cook.  It is clear we are going after a WR in first 2 rounds, but I would not expect us to go back to back WR or take 2 early as some around here have suggested.  If we take a 2nd one, I would expect it later like rounds 4 and on.  
7. Beane made it clear that trading back is very much in play at 28 and pointed out if they couldn't get Kincaid they had a real good trade back worked out he really liked.  
8. Also added he would love to add someone on the DL that can contribute this season.  
   1. While he said it could be in the first, would have to see what is there at 28 in general, but went on to say he sees guys outside the first in this draft that can come in and contribute this year.

 

So what I came away with is that I think there is very little chance we are making a move to get MHJ, Nabers, or Odunze.  It was also clear it was just as unlikely we are going after someone like Aiyuk, Higgins, etc either.  And that has been my belief all along as well.  

 

While I wouldn't say that anything he said rules out moving up into the teens to get Thomas (like say Jags at 17), I think it's a low possibility he goes up outside the 20's.  The thing that most often stuck out was the reluctance on using high future picks to move up.  I think Beane really likes the idea of having a first and two 2nd's next year and really prefers not trading them.   And I do think that trading back is a very strong possibility for us to try and get a 3rd this year or maybe even a third 2nd for next year.

 

All in all this was a good listen...and Beane has a track record for being pretty straight forward and candid on these things, so I think he is shooting pretty straight with his comments like he always has. 

 

 

Great write up.  Some fans aren't listening to Beane and still think we are trading away a buttload of draft picks to move up.

 

I now feel almost 100% we trade back and get a 3rd rounder. I also think Franklin is their pick.

[Fan in Chicago]

8 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

This is an interesting point.  

 

I suppose one of the concerns I have is 2019, when Beane added Beasley and Brown and told us all we'd have #1 by committee.  That worked well enough to get us to 10-6 and a first round playoff exit, but it really wasn't enough, and adding Dawson Knox as a 3rd round TE pick described as "outstanding combination of measurables and traits, but he's much more moldable clay than game-ready prospect at this point" didn't add enough that year.  I don't fault Beane for drafting DL, but there were receivers available within reach for us in the 2nd round who have proven to be very very good players, AJ Brown and DK Metcalf still on the board for example.

 

So here we are going into a draft described as amazingly deep with WR talent, and Beane's words could translate to "First round DT it is, I'll draft a WR who has great potential late in the 2nd round or maybe in the 4th, see, we added someone!"  

 

Seriously, if you look at Carolina's drafts from 2011 to 2017, it's headshaking.

 

 

Thats a rather lopsided track record in Carolina. However, using the first two picks on O in 2023 gives me home he has changed to prioritize offense over defense.

To be clear, my post was not to somehow prepare for a non-WR as our top pick. I absolutely think WR should be our first pick and coming away with a player at any other position will be a disappointment irrespective of how the rest of the draft goes. I think (fervently hope?) that Beane will do a modest move up into the lower teens. I scanned what he said yesterday and its a whole lot of nothing. 

5 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

 

I now feel almost 100% we trade back and get a 3rd rounder. I also think Franklin is their pick.

Granted its just your feelings versus mine, supported by zero actual knowledge, but I think the opppsite - that Beane will trade up.

[SoonerBillsFan]

3 minutes ago, Fan in Chicago said:

Thats a rather lopsided track record in Carolina. However, using the first two picks on O in 2023 gives me home he has changed to prioritize offense over defense.

To be clear, my post was not to somehow prepare for a non-WR as our top pick. I absolutely think WR should be our first pick and coming away with a player at any other position will be a disappointment irrespective of how the rest of the draft goes. I think (fervently hope?) that Beane will do a modest move up into the lower teens. I scanned what he said yesterday and its a whole lot of nothing. 

Granted its just your feelings versus mine, supported by zero actual knowledge, but I think the opppsite - that Beane will trade up.

Yep, just opinions my friend.  And YES, if someone is in striking distance he will possibly make a move.  But he isn't budging on next years 1st or the 2 second round picks next year

 

[GunnerBill]

8 hours ago, Beck Water said:

I feel the team that developed Beane as a GM, Carolina, had a pattern to under-prioritize protecting Cam Newton and providing him with weapons, and Beane is continuing that pattern.  If you look at Carolina's drafts under Rivera (by Gurney and then Gettlemen) I find it eerily reminiscent of what Beane has done here.  When Rivera took over and Newton was drafted, the talented but ancient Steven Smith was the #1 WR, 32 yrs old; Greg Olsen was also on the roster.  They drafted WR in the 5th and 4th round the first 3 years of Newton's career, finally using a #1 pick on Fat Kelvin in his 4th year (sort of like trading for Diggs in Allen's 3rd season).  That's pretty much it until 2017, Newton's 7th season, when they drafted Christian McCaffery and Curtis Samuel.    But by then, Newton was pretty bashed up and on the downhill slide.

 

Seriously, if you look at Carolina's drafts from 2011 to 2017, it's headshaking.

 

 

 

Yep. I have made this point multiple times. It is why I have never bought the narrative that the reason the Bills draft a lot of DL high and no receivers is because of Sean McDermott. Beane literally cut his teeth in personnel working under two GMs who had that philosophy. Is it any wonder he has followed it?

[CaptnCoke11]

32 minutes ago, BobbyC81 said:

It was 7 years ago, but the Bills had the 10th pick in the 2017 draft and KC the 27th.  To swap picks, it cost KC their 2018 first round pick and a 3rd.

Buffalo got hosed on that trade in compensation

[MrEpsYtown]

Beane's thoughts about WR and the offense kind of reflect my own. The E-P offense they run is about route running, understanding spacing and concepts, reliability, and versatility. 

 

To me, the most important thing Beane said was: 

 

Essentially they would love to have a #1 but it is not something they need.  "In this offense, you need guys who are smart, versatile, selfless, and can make the plays that their skillset allows them to make. If it's a tall guy that Josh is going to throw a 50/50 ball, he has to come down with it. If it's a guy who want to get the ball in his hands and get some RAC, he has to do that."

 

That is the most telling to me. If the guy is big he has to play big. If a guy is supposed to be fast he needs to play fast. Also they aren't going to ask a slow guy to get RAC or little guys to play big. 

 

Gabe Davis, big, didn't play big, did not run good routes, not really versatile. Did not make plays when counted on. Gone. 

 

Deonte Harty, was supposed to be fast and get RAC and be a downfield threat...did none of that and he is gone. 

 

Diggs smart, versatile, not selfless...dogged it at times. Did not make the plays he was supposed to make as a #1. Gone. 

 

Smart, versatile, selfless players...guys who don't care who is getting the ball, are going to run their routes hard and be where they are supposed to be. 

 

Everything Beane says narrows it down in my mind. The guys who meet those criteria who will go early outside the top three are Worthy, Franklin, McConkey, and to a lesser extent Leggette. 

 

Thomas does play big and I can see him as a guy they like. I really like him, but I am not sure he offers what Beane is talking about. Same with Coleman and AD Mitchell, who I like. 

 

I am not a betting man, but I would bet on Worthy, McConkey or Franklin being their guy. 

Edited April 19 by MrEpsYtown

[zow2]

Bottom line is Beane left it open to trading up, trading down, or staying put at #28.  He's not going to telegraph a lean in any direction, as he shouldn't.

 

I do enjoy BB press conferences.  He enjoys talking football and the reporters do mix in some thought provoking questions that he clearly likes to break down and provide good answers.

 

 

[Gregg]

Wasn't it a few years ago Beane said the Bills weren't going to be major players in FA and then they went out and signed Von Miller. I don't know what Beane is going to do at the draft. I do know he like every GM has their poker face on now so I wouldn't take what he says at face value. 

[NeverOutNick]

1 hour ago, BobbyC81 said:

It was 7 years ago, but the Bills had the 10th pick in the 2017 draft and KC the 27th.  To swap picks, it cost KC their 2018 first round pick and a 3rd.

I would 100% do this for Odunze if he dropped to 8-12 range. Heck I’d give up one of next years 2nds over the 3rd.

[Dr. Who]

7 minutes ago, NeverOutNick said:

I would 100% do this for Odunze if he dropped to 8-12 range. Heck I’d give up one of next years 2nds over the 3rd.

That's good, because that certainly would be part of the cost.

[NeverOutNick]

14 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

That's good, because that certainly would be part of the cost.

If we could swap with Atlanta (they don’t need offense) at 8 to jump Chicago and the Jets for Odunze (I assume MHJ and Nabers are gone) I could see it costing this and I’d be on board:

 

Falcons receive:

 

pick 28 in 2024

2025 1st round

2025 2nd round

 

Bills receive:

 

8th pick in 2024 and select Odunze

 

This would leave us with the Texans 2nd round pick next year and all of our picks still this year.

[2003Contenders]

2 minutes ago, NeverOutNick said:

If we could swap with Atlanta (they don’t need offense) at 8 to jump Chicago and the Jets for Odunze (I assume MHJ and Nabers are gone) I could see it costing this and I’d be on board:

 

Falcons receive:

 

pick 28 in 2024

2025 1st round

2025 2nd round

 

Bills receive:

 

8th pick in 2024 and select Odunze

 

This would leave us with the Texans 2nd round pick next year and all of our picks still this year.

I doubt that the Falcons would be willing to move down 20 spots in the 1st round without getting something else back THIS year. My guess is that #60 this year as well as the 2025 first rounder would be a minimal starting point.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

55 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Beane's thoughts about WR and the offense kind of reflect my own. The E-P offense they run is about route running, understanding spacing and concepts, reliability, and versatility. 

 

To me, the most important thing Beane said was: 

 

Essentially they would love to have a #1 but it is not something they need.  "In this offense, you need guys who are smart, versatile, selfless, and can make the plays that their skillset allows them to make. If it's a tall guy that Josh is going to throw a 50/50 ball, he has to come down with it. If it's a guy who want to get the ball in his hands and get some RAC, he has to do that."

 

That is the most telling to me. If the guy is big he has to play big. If a guy is supposed to be fast he needs to play fast. Also they aren't going to ask a slow guy to get RAC or little guys to play big. 

 

Gabe Davis, big, didn't play big, did not run good routes, not really versatile. Did not make plays when counted on. Gone. 

 

Deonte Harty, was supposed to be fast and get RAC and be a downfield threat...did none of that and he is gone. 

 

Diggs smart, versatile, not selfless...dogged it at times. Did not make the plays he was supposed to make as a #1. Gone. 

 

Smart, versatile, selfless players...guys who don't care who is getting the ball, are going to run their routes hard and be where they are supposed to be. 

 

Everything Beane says narrows it down in my mind. The guys who meet those criteria who will go early outside the top three are Worthy, Franklin, McConkey, and to a lesser extent Leggette. 

 

Thomas does play big and I can see him as a guy they like. I really like him, but I am not sure he offers what Beane is talking about. Same with Coleman and AD Mitchell, who I like. 

 

I am not a betting man, but I would bet on Worthy, McConkey or Franklin being their guy. 

I hope it's guys, not guy from your list (which i agree 100% with).

Edited April 19 by D. L. Hot-Flamethrower

[Brandon]

52 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Beane's thoughts about WR and the offense kind of reflect my own. The E-P offense they run is about route running, understanding spacing and concepts, reliability, and versatility. 

 

To me, the most important thing Beane said was: 

 

Essentially they would love to have a #1 but it is not something they need.  "In this offense, you need guys who are smart, versatile, selfless, and can make the plays that their skillset allows them to make. If it's a tall guy that Josh is going to throw a 50/50 ball, he has to come down with it. If it's a guy who want to get the ball in his hands and get some RAC, he has to do that."

 

That is the most telling to me. If the guy is big he has to play big. If a guy is supposed to be fast he needs to play fast. Also they aren't going to ask a slow guy to get RAC or little guys to play big. 

 

Gabe Davis, big, didn't play big, did not run good routes, not really versatile. Did not make plays when counted on. Gone. 

 

Deonte Harty, was supposed to be fast and get RAC and be a downfield threat...did none of that and he is gone. 

 

Diggs smart, versatile, not selfless...dogged it at times. Did not make the plays he was supposed to make as a #1. Gone. 

 

Smart, versatile, selfless players...guys who don't care who is getting the ball, are going to run their routes hard and be where they are supposed to be. 

 

Everything Beane says narrows it down in my mind. The guys who meet those criteria who will go early outside the top three are Worthy, Franklin, McConkey, and to a lesser extent Leggette. 

 

Thomas does play big and I can see him as a guy they like. I really like him, but I am not sure he offers what Beane is talking about. Same with Coleman and AD Mitchell, who I like. 

 

I am not a betting man, but I would bet on Worthy, McConkey or Franklin being their guy. 

 

I completely agree with that and I would also add that,  just looking at the types of early round prospects they've brought in over the last two or three years,  most fit that same basic profile.  Jordan Addison,  Tank Dell,  JSN,  Zay Flowers,  Jalin Hyatt,  John Metchie...Less emphasis on size,  more on route running potential and separation.  You could even throw in their higher profile veteran acquisitions...John Brown,  Cole Beasley,  Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders,  Deonte Harty,  and Curtis Samuel. I'm not saying they're all the same guy,  but there's a basic pattern there.  

[Shaw66]

10 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

Understood on "not going to go back through", but if you have any clue about how far in it was, I'd appreciate it.

 

I heard a lot of "don't need a true #1" "#1 by committee" prior to the 2019 season.  Now admittedly, we upgraded our WR room with John Brown and Cole Beasley, though relative to Fat Kelvin, Bloody Zay Jones, Bob Foster, Andre Holmes, and Deonte Thompson, that was a pretty low bar to achieve.  The bottom line, though, was that when it came to the playoffs where teams had had all season to watch film on us, it simply wasn't enough and Josh Allen was throwing passes at critical junctures to Duke Williams and Pat DiMarco.

 

I don't want to go back there.  Even if (as some suggest) Khalil Shakir takes a big step, Dalton Kincaid continues to develop, and Curtis Samuel has something akin to his previous career best year, I don't think it's enough, and I'm concerned Beane does or will "settle" for it.

 

Since you and Dawg keep saying it, I went back to the presser.  Go to 12:30 10 about 13:30.    He says, yes, a true #1 is nice.  He said, "i'd like to have two."  Then he said in their offense a truee 1 isn't necessary, but he also said something like, "hey, if a #1 is available in the draft or somewhere, yes."   That's when he starts talking about needing a true one to support Josh early in his career.

 

It's very clear how Beane operates.  He's said often that if he can see a way to make the team better, he's going to do it.   In the presser he said if a #1 is available, he's interested.  It's the same point, and it's not surprising.  

 

He didn't say he didn't want a #1.   He said in this offense he doesn't need a #1, but he clearly stated that if he can get one, he's interested.  It's a completely unremarkable thing to say.   

 

His problem is that he doesn't have the draft capital to trade up high enough to get the stud receivers in the draft, so a #1 isn't likely.    But as I said, if the Niners aren't going to keep Aiyuk, they might find that the best they can do in a trade is a #1 this year and some other capital thrown in (just like the Diggs deal), Beane DOES have enough capital to do that.  As I've said, I'm not predicting it.  All I'm saying is that it is among the possibilities as next week unfolds. 

 

[Beck Water]

23 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Since you and Dawg keep saying it, I went back to the presser.  Go to 12:30 10 about 13:30.    He says, yes, a true #1 is nice.  He said, "i'd like to have two."  Then he said in their offense a truee 1 isn't necessary, but he also said something like, "hey, if a #1 is available in the draft or somewhere, yes."   That's when he starts talking about needing a true one to support Josh early in his career.

 

It's very clear how Beane operates.  He's said often that if he can see a way to make the team better, he's going to do it.   In the presser he said if a #1 is available, he's interested.  It's the same point, and it's not surprising.  

 

He didn't say he didn't want a #1.   He said in this offense he doesn't need a #1, but he clearly stated that if he can get one, he's interested.  It's a completely unremarkable thing to say.   

 

His problem is that he doesn't have the draft capital to trade up high enough to get the stud receivers in the draft, so a #1 isn't likely.    But as I said, if the Niners aren't going to keep Aiyuk, they might find that the best they can do in a trade is a #1 this year and some other capital thrown in (just like the Diggs deal), Beane DOES have enough capital to do that.  As I've said, I'm not predicting it.  All I'm saying is that it is among the possibilities as next week unfolds. 

 

 

Thanks, @Shaw66, appreciated. (And from the responses you're getting, you can see others appreciatecha too)

 

I feel the problem with trading for a player like Aiyuk is that at this point, the Bills have to be judicious about who they pay.  And it's not just the pick you give up, it's all the cap space you give up.  Diggs and Von Miller are providing Beane and Bills fans with a very visceral demonstration of what happens when a GM guesses wrong on the window for ROI re-signing a veteran player.

 

I do hear you that with Beane, anything can happen regardless of what he says, and he's not closing any doors.

 

I personally feel that Beane "did the experiment" of trying to operate the offense without a #1 in 2019, and showed that we can win the regular season that way, but in the playoffs or playing the best teams, it's not enough.

 

 

Edited April 19 by Beck Water

[Starr-Bills]

Chicago needs picks (only 4), and it’s a deep receiver class. I Think swapping 28 for 9 + the ‘25 second and a couple/three (4,5,6 round picks this year) and Knox (with a new team friendly deal) could get it done if Odunze slips to 9.  
 

vet TE who worked with a developing Josh Allen could be a nice security blanket for their new rookie QB.

 

 

[Cash]

Just watched the presser. My two cents:

-“I haven’t called them” has an implicit part: “…about moving into the top 10.” But he also suggested that he will be calling them next week. So what does that tell us? Not much. My guess is that if he thinks all of the top 3 can have a Jamarr Chase like impact as a rookie, Beane will be willing to pay the steep price to move up for whichever one goes third - ESPECIALLY if that guy drops out of the top 10. I agree with others that part of what he’s doing here is managing fan/media expectations. I doubt that Beane thinks we’re truly “1 player away” right now. So I don’t think he’ll do a full mortgage type deal to get up to 7 or 8. 

 

-A smaller move up for BT Jr wouldn’t be surprising, but I don’t expect it. Obviously depends on their grades. If he’s way above the rest of Tier 2, that obviously makes a difference. I think it’s more likely that they move up 1-3 spots for a Tier 2 guy they like significantly more than the rest of the pack. No idea who that would be. 
 

-Conversely, if they have similar grades for all the Tier 2 guys, a trade back would make a lot of sense. Probably for a mid-high 2 and a 3. I don’t expect this. The way Beane was talking about what they look for in WRs, I thinks they’ll have probably 1-2 guys in a Tier that they like way better than the rest of that Tier. 
 

-Agree with Gunner that they’re happy with outside CB in terms of high picks. I don’t see them drafting one before the 4th. 
 

-I continue to think that Beane doesn’t go into the draft with a specific plan. Meaning like, “I’m trading up for Nabors, then taking a safety with my next pick, then fill holes with my remaining picks.” I do think he goes in with preference, and with various possibilities outlined in advance. But the story is written real-time during the draft, so he doesn’t try to go in with a pre-written story. It’s more of an improv exercise than a writing exercise, if that makes sense. If I’m right, then even Beane doesn’t know what he’s going to do yet. And as a side note, I think this is the right way to approach the draft. 

[amprov56]

15 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Dawg - My interpretation of what he said about his different from yours.   I'm not predicting a move to get one of those guys, but I don't think he suggested he wouldn't do it.  

 

As you say, he did say that when he made the deal for Diggs, he was looking for help for Allen, because Brown and Beasley couldn't carry the offense.  And yes, he said that he doesn't have to make a move like that now, because Allen has progressed.  But he also didn't say, and I don't think he implied, that he wouldn't acquire a receiver by trading a draft pick.

 

He also was clear that he'd like to have a true number 1 guy.   He just said that the Bills no longer need the guy to support Allen in that way.  

 

Beyond that, it's clear that he intends to add to the receiver room.   From that, I think the correct conclusion is that Beane is going to do what he's always done - survey the options and make a decision.   Just as he did with Diggs, if the best option is to package his first with other assets to get a proven wide out, he'll do it.   He might trade up, he might stick, he might trade down, and he might get his receiver by making a deal. 

 

If the 49ers are listening to trade offers, they may be finding that they can't get the compensation they hoped (because of what it will cost for his new team to keep him), they might like the idea of getting a first round pick and moving Aiyuk out of the NFC.   If that's the conclusion they're coming to, I don't think Beane said anything today that would preclude his making a move with them.  

 

 

As always, great post