Interesting tidbit from Schoen regarding draft grades on players staying in school

[dave mcbride]

40 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

It's going to hurt day 3 of the draft this year and next. But it will even itself out. They are all going to come out at some point it just means we have a couple of years gap between the last lot of pre-NIL classes where underclassmen were incentivised to come out and the settled post-NIL landscape where everyone stays in school. 

 

I think the more interesting long term question is what does it do for second and third contracts in the NFL? If the average age of players drafted goes up (it actually fell by a whole year from the year 2000 to the pandemic draft) from the c.21.5 it is now to say 23 then that means the average age for your second deal (your first big contract) goes up to 26/27.... if you sign 4 or 5 years at that age you better cash in because you probably ain't getting a second go around at making money. Whereas now players often get two big contracts.... their second at 24/25 and a third at 28/29. Does that fuel yet more contract inflation on those second deals? Or does it mean players push for shorter second deals to give them another shot? Will be interesting to keep an eye on. 

Yes, precisely. It will absolutely even out over time. The other thing to consider is whether the entities paying college players will realize the sort of return they are anticipating. I’m skeptical, and that might ratchet down the NIL payments.

[Chaos]

Just now, dave mcbride said:

Yes, precisely. It will absolutely even out over time. The other thing to consider is whether the entities paying college players will realize the sort of return they are anticipating. I’m skeptical, and that might ratchet down the NIL payments.

I think the history of college coaching contracts suggests payments won't ratchet down for players. 

[CaptnCoke11]

18 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Beane said the same thing in his presser today as well.  Basically kids are getting paid and they already know they have a spot and don't have to fight for a roster spot so they are staying in school and getting a payday.

Cant blame them either.  

[Mr. WEO]

22 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

Was omw home from work,  listening to WFAN and they were playing Joe Schoens live media scrum.

Couldn't listen to whole thing but one statement really stood out for the whole draft and every team. 

 

He stated there was either 140 or 170 (can't remember exact #) players they had a draftable grade on, that are staying in school this year, majority because the NIL deals and ability to make $$, in his opinion 

 

So this is the bad side to the NIL deals. Going to make GMs lives that much more difficult,  especially on day 3, where Beane has been stellar.

 

Just wanted to drop this nugget, as it kinda changes the whole landscape of the draft  especially hearing it straight from a GM.

 

It'll only get worse as years go on imo...

 

 

 

how much real NIL money are Day 3 type draftees bringing in right now??

 

5 star recruits (top 32 of them) mirror the top 32 draftees typically. The NIL dropoff to 4 star players is huge.  Day 3 would include few, if any of 4 or 5 star players.  

 

So how would NIL affect this at all for day 3?  According a group that monitors this stuff (SANIL), the a QB in top 25 PFF grade gets about $350K a year. a top 25 TE will get 100K.

 

once you get to the Day 3 guys (PFF >150), the amounts go to $50k for QB, all the way down to $10K for TE.  Compare this to Mr. Irrelevant, who gets $1,000,000 a year for 4 years.

 

Therefore any draftable player should forego NIL and enter the draft for a lot more money.   

[Billy Claude]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

how much real NIL money are Day 3 type draftees bringing in right now??

 

5 star recruits (top 32 of them) mirror the top 32 draftees typically. The NIL dropoff to 4 star players is huge.  Day 3 would include few, if any of 4 or 5 star players.  

 

So how would NIL affect this at all for day 3?  According a group that monitors this stuff (SANIL), the a QB in top 25 PFF grade gets about $350K a year. a top 25 TE will get 100K.

 

once you get to the Day 3 guys (PFF >150), the amounts go to $50k for QB, all the way down to $10K for TE.  Compare this to Mr. Irrelevant, who gets $1,000,000 a year for 4 years.

 

Therefore any draftable player should forego NIL and enter the draft for a lot more money.   

 

I feel a that this is not the relevant cost benefit analysis. Since only about 30 to 40 percent of 7th round picks actually make a roster, the majority are getting practice squad money, not a million a year although this is still more than most NIL money. More importantly, most NFL careers end not because of age but because the NFL decides you are not good enough.  For the majority of 7th round draft choices delaying your entry in the NFL will not affect your lifetime NFL earnings at all, simply push it back a year.

 

So if you are enjoying life in college I can understand why you would stay one more year. Staying comes with risks such as a bad year or injuries making one less attractive for the NFL, however, declaring for the draft if you expect to be a 7th rounder also comes with the risk that you will not be drafted and there is a chance to improve your draft stock also.

 

 

 

[BullBuchanan]

On 4/18/2024 at 1:21 PM, Augie said:

Didn’t the ‘Bama QB make more than the Eagle’s QB a couple years ago? I’m not saying it’s right or wrong, just hard to get my head around. 

A lot of college QBs made more than Brock Purdy this year.

[JerseyBills]

2 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

how much real NIL money are Day 3 type draftees bringing in right now??

 

5 star recruits (top 32 of them) mirror the top 32 draftees typically. The NIL dropoff to 4 star players is huge.  Day 3 would include few, if any of 4 or 5 star players.  

 

So how would NIL affect this at all for day 3?  According a group that monitors this stuff (SANIL), the a QB in top 25 PFF grade gets about $350K a year. a top 25 TE will get 100K.

 

once you get to the Day 3 guys (PFF >150), the amounts go to $50k for QB, all the way down to $10K for TE.  Compare this to Mr. Irrelevant, who gets $1,000,000 a year for 4 years.

 

Therefore any draftable player should forego NIL and enter the draft for a lot more money.   

That's a great question and I certainly don't have exact figures but I'm sure they're treated like royalty on campus - free cars, meals, autographs etc etc

 

Might not be millions, but enough where them and their family are comfortable and taken care of for their final year, all while potentially moving their draft stock up.

[SoonerBillsFan]

On 4/18/2024 at 1:21 PM, Bray Wyatt said:

This will fix itself in a couple of years and be back to normal

Man I hope so.

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

how much real NIL money are Day 3 type draftees bringing in right now??

 

5 star recruits (top 32 of them) mirror the top 32 draftees typically. The NIL dropoff to 4 star players is huge.  Day 3 would include few, if any of 4 or 5 star players.  

 

So how would NIL affect this at all for day 3?  According a group that monitors this stuff (SANIL), the a QB in top 25 PFF grade gets about $350K a year. a top 25 TE will get 100K.

 

once you get to the Day 3 guys (PFF >150), the amounts go to $50k for QB, all the way down to $10K for TE.  Compare this to Mr. Irrelevant, who gets $1,000,000 a year for 4 years.

 

Therefore any draftable player should forego NIL and enter the draft for a lot more money.   

 

You say that.... there are a fair few 4 and 5 star recruits going on day 3 this year. Some of that might be covid legacy. Justin Shorter was a 5 star as well wasn't he? Maybe thats a temporary thing. I dunno. But the fact is underclassmen coming out are way down this year.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

On 4/18/2024 at 2:19 PM, Virgil said:

 

Unless you know you are going in the first 3 rounds, I think this is smart for the players.  They get paid, their education, and learn more about their NFL skillset and see if they would improve their stock.  Worst case scenario, they get their full degree, get paid, and won't be in trouble financially if they don't get drafted

Excellent points. My guess is most of these guys are marginal NFL talents. Like you said they get paid, they get health care, and they graduate. All good things. 

[fergie's ire]

13 hours ago, CSBill said:

 

Are we supposed to feel bad for Joe Schoen and the other well-paid GMs of the NFL?

 

Let's see, "Stay in college, live the good life. No big responsibilities. Surrounded by college coeds. Make a few Million dollars while I'm at it." ...why rush the pressures of the NFL and adult life?

And actually, in the long term I think it makes it easier for GMs because they will have more tape on players. Fewer underclassmen coming out this year means more seniors coming out next, and they should be easier to evaluate.  The real reason the NBA put in the one and done rule, requiring players to play at least one year in college, was to save GMs jobs.  It wasn't to help the high school/college kids.  GMs kept drafting guys like Kwame Brown and getting fired and they wanted to make sure they could have tape of them playing against better competition.

[H2o]

I mean, more power to them. If they believe they can make more money hanging around for an extra year in college? Cool. It just kicks the draft depth down the line until it all evens out eventually. 

[Mr. WEO]

15 hours ago, Billy Claude said:

 

I feel a that this is not the relevant cost benefit analysis. Since only about 30 to 40 percent of 7th round picks actually make a roster, the majority are getting practice squad money, not a million a year although this is still more than most NIL money. More importantly, most NFL careers end not because of age but because the NFL decides you are not good enough.  For the majority of 7th round draft choices delaying your entry in the NFL will not affect your lifetime NFL earnings at all, simply push it back a year.

 

So if you are enjoying life in college I can understand why you would stay one more year. Staying comes with risks such as a bad year or injuries making one less attractive for the NFL, however, declaring for the draft if you expect to be a 7th rounder also comes with the risk that you will not be drafted and there is a chance to improve your draft stock also.

 

 

 

 

day 3 of the NFL draft includes rounds 4,5,6,7.....

 

But yes, if your are, at best, potential 7th round talent--might as well take a few thousand bucks a year in college, because you're never getting to the NFL.

 

15 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

That's a great question and I certainly don't have exact figures but I'm sure they're treated like royalty on campus - free cars, meals, autographs etc etc

 

Might not be millions, but enough where them and their family are comfortable and taken care of for their final year, all while potentially moving their draft stock up.

 

I provided the figures.  It's not nothing, but day 3 type guys aren't getting much.  couple thousand dollars.

 

14 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

You say that.... there are a fair few 4 and 5 star recruits going on day 3 this year. Some of that might be covid legacy. Justin Shorter was a 5 star as well wasn't he? Maybe thats a temporary thing. I dunno. But the fact is underclassmen coming out are way down this year.

 

Allowing for outliers, yes.  Aren't many 4/5 in the day 3 cohort, typically.

[Saint Doug]

What I would like to see is how many of those players ended up having worse draft grades by staying in school an extra year. There’s a lot of money lost if they would’ve went in the 1st, but ended up being drafted in the 2nd. The idiom is penny wise, but pound foolish. That said, at least they got their diploma. 

[GunnerBill]

33 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Allowing for outliers, yes.  Aren't many 4/5 in the day 3 cohort, typically.

 

I feel like there has been an increasing number but I don't have the numbers to back that up it is just a gut instinct. There are a fair few this year.

[Billy Claude]

3 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

day 3 of the NFL draft includes rounds 4,5,6,7.....

 

But yes, if your are, at best, potential 7th round talent--might as well take a few thousand bucks a year in college, because you're never getting to the NFL.

 

 

 

 

Well, not to nitpick, but you were the one referring to how much money Mr. Irrelevant in your original argument.  

 

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

This will be good for both the NFL and college football. NFL scouts and GMs will have more information on those 170 draftable players staying in college.

 

What will hurt college football is the transfer portal though.

[White Linen]

On 4/18/2024 at 2:19 PM, Virgil said:

 

Unless you know you are going in the first 3 rounds, I think this is smart for the players.  They get paid, their education, and learn more about their NFL skillset and see if they would improve their stock.  Worst case scenario, they get their full degree, get paid, and won't be in trouble financially if they don't get drafted

 

How much are kids with 5th round grades for example, trying to make into the 3rd, making in college?

[Virgil]

20 minutes ago, White Linen said:

 

How much are kids with 5th round grades for example, trying to make into the 3rd, making in college?

 

I think it depends on the college honestly.  Some schools have to offer more to get players to come to their school, as the school may be overall less desirable than a Bama or Clemson.  FedEx just announced they were donating 25 million dollars to the Memphis program to be used to bring players in.  Yes, that's for basketball players, but it just shows the crazy money being thrown at colleges now because people want their team to be more relevant.  

 

I also think it's interesting to see how the transfer portal is impacted by this.  Would a player leave Duke to go to Memphis upon hearing of that donation?  Maybe.

 

In any case, it's a very different world now and players are less inclined to gamble on declaring early.  

[White Linen]

55 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

I think it depends on the college honestly.  Some schools have to offer more to get players to come to their school, as the school may be overall less desirable than a Bama or Clemson.  FedEx just announced they were donating 25 million dollars to the Memphis program to be used to bring players in.  Yes, that's for basketball players, but it just shows the crazy money being thrown at colleges now because people want their team to be more relevant.  

 

I also think it's interesting to see how the transfer portal is impacted by this.  Would a player leave Duke to go to Memphis upon hearing of that donation?  Maybe.

 

In any case, it's a very different world now and players are less inclined to gamble on declaring early.  

 

It's definitely a different world. And I do think it's possible a Duke commit could go to Memphis, but those are blue chip players.  

 

My curiosity is how this effects say beyond second round players. In the NFL a 3rd round pick can get a total contract in the 5.4 to 6 mil range.  Could a player trying to get from the 5th round to the 3rd by staying in college an extra year, be making that decision based on college money?  I'm thinking they aren't.