Media Day at OBD (Beane, McDermott, Josh & more)

[Warriorspikes51]

Option 1:   Big Trade into top 10

Option 2:  Moderate move up for BTJ  + possible move up in Round 2

Option 3:  Trade back with CAR or WSH.  Come away with Two 2nds + 3rd  or even Three  2nds. 

(example: 28, 128, 160, 2025 2nd to CAR for 33, 39) 
                

Option 4:  Stay at 28 and hope you strike gold.  

Edited April 18 by Warriorspikes51

[Logic]

5 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

To win games sure, but to make it to (and win) the Super Bowl you almost certainly need at least one great option. As has been the case for every Super Bowl team going back at least a decade.

 

Our best hope on that front is that Kincaid becomes a great pass catcher. Last year down the stretch he was a good pass catcher. If he becomes a high efficiency 100+ target pass catcher we can have a championship caliber offense. That or one of our rookie WRs hits the ground running which isn't inconceivable, other teams have gotten elite production out of rookies in recent years although it's rare.

Yes. Agreed.

Kelce has been that guy for Mahomes the past couple seasons, and Rashee Rice's emergence was huge for the Chiefs last year and into the playoffs.

I suppose I mostly meant that you don't need an old school, prototypical WR1. You don't need a Ja'Marr Chase or a Justin Jefferson. You DO need dependable, high end receiving talent. But as I pointed out, Rice, Reed, and St Brown are all in a completely different mold than the old school WR1s.

I look at Green Bay, and they had a slew of guys with different skillsets. Doubs, Reed, Watson, Wicks, and the tight ends Musgrave and and Kraft. There's not one GREAT receiver on that team, but there's a pile of good ones, and they all complement each other well. And yes, I realize that Green Bay hasn't made it to or won a Super Bowl with that setup.

I do agree Kincaid seems to have the talent to be our de facto number one pass catcher. It is also my hope that the Bills select two receivers within the first four rounds. Actually, it's MY preference that they DO add a dynamic WR1 type, but if Beane is telling the truth and they're going more the route of "collection of good talent" over "one GREAT guy", then hopefully Kincaid or one of the draftees can be the crunch time guy when the lights are brightest.

[The Wiz]

14 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

To win games sure, but to make it to (and win) the Super Bowl you almost certainly need at least one great option. As has been the case for every Super Bowl team going back at least a decade.

 

Our best hope on that front is that Kincaid becomes a great pass catcher. Last year down the stretch he was a good pass catcher. If he becomes a high efficiency 100+ target pass catcher we can have a championship caliber offense. That or one of our rookie WRs hits the ground running which isn't inconceivable, other teams have gotten elite production out of rookies in recent years although it's rare.

There have been 11 100+ reception TE's in NFL history.  Kelce has 3 of them.

 

I know you said target pass catcher but even still, that would be putting him in the range of some all-time greats (Kelce, Gonzalaz, Witten, Clark).

Edited April 18 by The Wiz

[Saint Doug]

There’s no way Beane trades back. That’s not his MO. What will happen is he’ll trade up a few spots and say that the guy taken was the only guy left with a 1st round grade by them. 

[The Wiz]

8 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Option 1:   Big Trade into top 10

Option 2:  Moderate move up for BTJ  + possible move up in Round 2

Option 3:  Trade back with CAR or WSH.  Come away with Two 2nds + 3rd  or even Three  2nds. 

(example: 28, 128, 160, 2025 2nd to CAR for 33, 39) 
                

Option 4:  Stay at 28 and hope you strike gold.  

Option 3 will be the worst options when it comes to the optics because all anyone is going to care about is if KC picks up a WR that we could have drafted before them.

[Warriorspikes51]

Just now, Saint Doug said:

There’s no way Beane trades back. That’s not his MO. What will happen is he’ll trade up a few spots and say that the guy taken was the only guy left with a 1st round grade by them. 

Now is the time for big game hunting.   I'd give it a 60% chance we get one of the top 4 WR's 

[GoBills808]

36 minutes ago, Logic said:

Yeah, I think the Packers showed this last year, and honestly, the Chiefs have been showing it to some extent, too.

Saying you don't need an old school WR1 is not saying you don't still need good receivers. You do. Down the stretch last year, Jayden Reed became Love's de facto number 1, and Rashee Rice became Mahomes'. Or even look at Amon Ra St Brown on the Lions. None of the three of those guys would fit the old school definition of an NFL WR1. If anything, they're all dependable, chain-moving slot specialists that the QB can look to on third down.

The point is, if you have a plethora of good options, you can succeed on offense in this league. You don't necessarily need one GREAT option.

Could not disagree more w this

 

Leaving aside the fact that the Chiefs do in fact have one of the best options in NFL history in Kelce as have the last five super bowl participants...we typically get exposed in the playoffs for being deficient at a lot of areas I don't have to go into because it will sidetrack discussion. Those deficiencies are only going to be overcome w top level talent as the Bills do not have nor seem interested in sourcing top level offensive staff

[Andrew Son]

2 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Now is the time for big game hunting.   I'd give it a 60% chance we get one of the top 4 WR's 

I'm sure you're working on a scenario where we get 2 of them!

[Warriorspikes51]

9 minutes ago, Logic said:

Yes. Agreed.

Kelce has been that guy for Mahomes the past couple seasons, and Rashee Rice's emergence was huge for the Chiefs last year and into the playoffs.

I suppose I mostly meant that you don't need an old school, prototypical WR1. You don't need a Ja'Marr Chase or a Justin Jefferson. You DO need dependable, high end receiving talent. But as I pointed out, Rice, Reed, and St Brown are all in a completely different mold than the old school WR1s.

I look at Green Bay, and they had a slew of guys with different skillsets. Doubs, Reed, Watson, Wicks, and the tight ends Musgrave and and Kraft. There's not one GREAT receiver on that team, but there's a pile of good ones, and they all complement each other well. And yes, I realize that Green Bay hasn't made it to or won a Super Bowl with that setup.

I do agree Kincaid seems to have the talent to be our de facto number one pass catcher. It is also my hope that the Bills select two receivers within the first four rounds. Actually, it's MY preference that they DO add a dynamic WR1 type, but if Beane is telling the truth and they're going more the route of "collection of good talent" over "one GREAT guy", then hopefully Kincaid or one of the draftees can be the crunch time guy when the lights are brightest.

 

I agree to an extent.  The key in the playoffs to have someone who can consistently beat Press Man coverage.  If your team doesn't have one....you're going to lose 

[MiracleAtRich1393]

2 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

Trading up in Rd2 sounds like a real possibility, as many on here like myself have discussed.

 

Car makes a TON of sense, given Beanes connection with Dan and that they have 2 early picks in the round.

 

Buf: Our 2025 2nd (from Minny) + #60 + #128

 

Car: #39 + #101 (plus a possible 6th in 2025)

 

This would allow us to 2 picks in the top 50, where I see a solid talent drop-off.  And the top pick of Rd4: possibly a WR, S, DL, RB (depending on how we use #28/#39) that has slid.

This certainly qualifies as master strategy!

 

Or if CAR wants to get back into the first round, could go #28, MN 2025 2nd, #60, and #144 for #33, #39, and #101. That's almost exactly even on the Rich Hill chart if you consider MN 2025 2nd is worth a mid-third this year. Basically just turns Diggs & Bates into a total of 62 draft slots in exchange for moving 5 slots down for your first pick. Giving KC and Baltimore first crack at receivers we might want makes me a bit queasy though even if I might like that trade in a vacuum

Just now, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

I agree to an extent.  The key in the playoffs to have someone who can consistently beat Press Man coverage.  If your team doesn't have one....you're going to lose 

Let's get two!

[Warriorspikes51]

Just now, SWATeam said:

I'm sure you're working on a scenario where we get 2 of them!

 

I had those draft cards sent to the league months ago!! BEFORE Diggs was officially traded 😎

 

[DJB]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

Yep. 

If this is the route they're going, I hope they at least draft a couple receivers. I'm fine with volume over a classic "WR1", if that's what they wanna do, but...this receiving corps needs not one, but TWO talented youngsters added to it for that to work, IMO.

Rookie
Samuel
Shakir
Rookie

Hollins
Shorter/Hamler/etc

This method only works if you hit on those guys like GB did though 

 

Personally I want to go and try and go and get an elite guy. 
 

I think people are understanding the amount of attention Diggs drew each game with the D’s top corner and usually a safety coming over the top to help. 
 

It’s way easier to play a shell coverage against us now 

Edited April 18 by DJB

[BarleyNY]

8 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Option 3:  Trade back with CAR or WSH.  Come away with Two 2nds + 3rd  or even Three  2nds. 

(example: 28, 128, 160, 2025 2nd to CAR for 33, 39) 

I just don't see other teams having a big appetite for a costly trade up to 28 for the same reasons we'd want to make a move back. Outside chance of a team doing it for a QB, but that's it. Your example is weighted heavily in favor of the Bills.

[MiracleAtRich1393]

3 minutes ago, DJB said:

This method only works if you hit on those guys like GB did though 

 

Personally I want to go and try and go and get an elite guy. 
 

I think people are understanding the amount of attention Diggs drew each game with the D’s top corner and usually a safety coming over the top to help. 
 

It’s way easier to play a shell coverage against us now 

Until we draft Legette & Polk at 33 & 39 LFGGGGGGGGGG

[Logic]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Could not disagree more w this

 

Leaving aside the fact that the Chiefs do in fact have one of the best options in NFL history in Kelce as have the last five super bowl participants...we typically get exposed in the playoffs for being deficient at a lot of areas I don't have to go into because it will sidetrack discussion. Those deficiencies are only going to be overcome w top level talent as the Bills do not have nor seem interested in sourcing top level offensive staff

The counter argument to what you're saying is that the Bills have had one of the most productive WR1s on their roster each of the past four seasons in Stefon Diggs, and have still failed to reach a Super Bowl.

I'm not saying you don't need top end receiver talent. You do. I'm saying that having a collection of good receivers with different skillsets is a viable alternative. Note: I would argue that the Bills of the past couple seasons didn't fit the description of "having a collection of good receivers with different skillsets". Last year we lacked Gabe Davis in the playoffs had an all-around unimpressive WR depth chart. The year before that, we brought in the corpses of John Brown and Cole Beasley.

I'm saying the Bills need to do BETTER than that. But getting ONE very good receiver prospect isn't necessarily the only avenue. Getting a handful of good receiving prospects is another option. We're in agreement that they've been deficient there the past few years, but the fact that the model of "one great WR (Diggs) and a slew of average to below average ones" HASN'T been working only supports the point I'm trying to make: that's not the only model. Spreading targets around to multiple good options (which the Bills have not had the past few years) is an alternative.

All of that said, I'm on the record on this forum as being on team "trade up for one of the big three WRs", so I'm not even saying this is the path I would take if it were up to me. I'm just trying to provide context for what Beane is discussing and for how it has worked for other teams in recent years.

[Warriorspikes51]

3 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

I just don't see other teams having a big appetite for a costly trade up to 28 for the same reasons we'd want to make a move back. Outside chance of a team doing it for a QB, but that's it. Your example is weighted heavily in favor of the Bills.

 

probably true.  It would be fairly realistic however, to do something like  28, 128, 163, 2025 2nd, for Carolina's 33 & 65 

Edited April 18 by Warriorspikes51

[RobbRiddick]

Reporter: "Josh, does it feel weird being out there without - "

 

Josh: "Stefon?"

 

Reporter: "No, a golf club"

[Brandon]

3 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

I just don't see other teams having a big appetite for a costly trade up to 28 for the same reasons we'd want to make a move back. Outside chance of a team doing it for a QB, but that's it. Your example is weighted heavily in favor of the Bills.

 

There's likely to be a run on WRs starting around the last few picks of R1 and down to about 40-45.  Five or six will probably go in that range.  I think there will be teams willing to move up to get the one they like the most.  

 

Of course,  that's also an incentive for the Bills to stay right where they are.  They're in a good spot and will likely have their choice of the group that goes in that range,  if they want one.  

[Beck Water]

3 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

 

 

Yeah, Beane is often a straight shooter but he's not gonna say a thing before the draft.

 

In 2023, Beane traded a 4th round pick (#130) to move up 2 spots from 27 to 25 to draft Dalton Kincaid.

In 2022, Beane traded a 4th round pick (#130) to move up 2 spots from 25 to 23 to draft Kaiir Elam

In 2021, Beane stood pat to draft Rousseau with Pick #30

In 2020, Beane had previously traded #1 pick #22 as part of the package for Stefon Diggs.  He stood pat in the 2nd round to draft Epenesa

In 2019, Beane stood pat to draft Ed Oliver with Pick #9

 

I would say you can tell a leopard by his spots, and a GM by his actions, and Beane's actions say he's more likely than not to trade one of our 4th round picks to move up a few slots if a player he likes is within reach.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

To me it seems like Beane isn’t his normal self this offseason. Seems a little down.