Alphamock Draft - v1.0 for first round

[billsfan89]

18 hours ago, FireChans said:

@Alphadawg7

 

Jerry Jones hasn’t made a “cute” first round pick in many years now. Their first round pick last year was their LT in waiting while Smith got old (and was quite a foresight).

 

Zero chance they take Worthy imo. DB or OL will be their pick, or another WR. 

The Cowboys have operated very prudently for a long time now. But I don’t think Worthy would be a “reach” or a “cute” pick. Speed is very de rigeuer in the NFL and Worthy is a quality WR prospect whose not just a one trick pony speed player. 
 

I think the Cowboys also need some playmaking on offense. Lamb is a stud but outside of him there’s not too much else Brandin Cooks is the only other notable WR on their roster and while he’s coming off a decent year (54 catches 657 yards) he’s not the high end player he used to be. Jake Ferguson at TE is a good receiving option but not a dynamic player either. 
 

So there’s a need at WR and for speed on the offense and Worthy is not going to be a shock to go in round 1 talent wise.

 

I can see it happening given that the player is a quality player at a position of need for the Cowboys

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 minute ago, billsfan89 said:

The Cowboys have operated very prudently for a long time now. But I don’t think Worthy would be a “reach” or a “cute” pick. Speed is very de rigeuer in the NFL and Worthy is a quality WR prospect whose not just a one trick pony speed player. 
 

I think the Cowboys also need some playmaking on offense. Lamb is a stud but outside of him there’s not too much else Brandin Cooks is the only other notable WR on their roster and while he’s coming off a decent year (54 catches 657 yards) he’s not the high end player he used to be. Jake Ferguson at TE is a good receiving option but not a dynamic player either. 
 

So there’s a need at WR and for speed on the offense and Worthy is not going to be a shock to go in round 1 talent wise.

 

I can see it happening given that the player is a quality player at a position of need for the Cowboys

 

I think they like tolbert more than most people.  However their primary targets coming at TE and from the slot though - i could see them seeing a potential value with that level of speed on the outside.  

[billsfan89]

4 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

I think they like tolbert more than most people.  However their primary targets coming at TE and from the slot though - i could see them seeing a potential value with that level of speed on the outside.  

Getting more punch and speed at WR is a need for Dallas. Lamb is just 25 but the cupboard is bare after him. Cooks is an aging supplemental player while the rest of the players behind them are not very inspiring. For both short and long term considerations they probably need to invest a major pick into that position 

[Alphadawg7]

42 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Fair points, always appreciate you opinion man.

 

I'm higher on Worthy than most.  I see ALOT of Zay Flowers in his game, who I liked more than Jordan LY.  Also see some Jordan/bit of Tyreek.  But again mostly Zay, and think he'll have just as much impact/success in our offense as Zay did for the Ravens.

 

Other than top 3 (and I'd take BTJ obviously over Worthy), Xavier has the best "suddenness" in his routes.  He's just not a deep threat, but can break off the routes inside/outside/curls (stem tree) the best.  He's not breaking a ton of tackles, but if he gets a block and makes the 1st man miss, he's an instant homerun threat on bubble screens/short routes too.  

 

I'm thinking there's a 35% chance he makes it to us (simple math: 70% chance Miami passes on him for OT and 50% Dallas passes on him for OL help).  Franklin is my #2 option.  Then a very slight drop off to Ladd, Polk, Mitchell in that order.  After that, I have a bunch of WRs lumped together: Wilson, Legette, Coleman, Tez

 

IMHO I think the new KO rule moved Worthy up the Bills board personally.  This new KO rule is bringing kick returns back and its going to come with the highest percentage of KO returns for TD's in the history of the league IMHO.  So having a Worthy back there with his speed where even the slightest crease and its to the house is going to add to his value.  Not saying we are investing an early pick just on a KR guy, but the bonus value of what he can bring there I think increases his value to a team.  

 

Worthy excelled in Punt returns in college, but didn't spend much time a kick returner.  However the new rules will make the transition easy, and he was a weapon in Punt returns.  

[Aussie Joe]

4 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

Even if it is somewhat realistic, the Bills don't need to trade back. It would be nice to see us fleece another team rather than McDermott getting foolishly swindled yet again.

You hoping for Cooper Dejean this year ?

 

 

[Einstein's Dog]

I appreciate the effort/thoughts.  But from where I sit I would like McConkey over Franklin.

 

In any event, I hope this is just reviewing the draft (the early portion) and is not all that the FO does.  A WR room of Franklin/Samuel/Shakir would be pathetic.  Big time rebuild if this is the thought.  I hope that's not the plan.

 

This kind of draft complements the trade for a real WR1.  Sending a lower pick for a Metcalf/Godwin/DHop, maybe Sutton or DJ Moore.  Then you have a WR1 and a Samuel/rookie (Franklin/McConkey) as WR2.

[Alphadawg7]

36 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I appreciate the effort/thoughts.  But from where I sit I would like McConkey over Franklin.

 

In any event, I hope this is just reviewing the draft (the early portion) and is not all that the FO does.  A WR room of Franklin/Samuel/Shakir would be pathetic.  Big time rebuild if this is the thought.  I hope that's not the plan.

 

This kind of draft complements the trade for a real WR1.  Sending a lower pick for a Metcalf/Godwin/DHop, maybe Sutton or DJ Moore.  Then you have a WR1 and a Samuel/rookie (Franklin/McConkey) as WR2.

 

I am about to post a recap of Brandon Beanes press conference today.  One of the take aways is that I think there is no chance he will be trading for an established WR.  He specifically addressed how when we got Diggs, it was what the team needed with Allen being an ascending player.  Then he very specifically stated that with Josh at the level he is now that he does not believe he needs that like he did when they went and got Diggs.  

 

So I think you can scratch off any kind of trade for an established WR.  I do like McConkey too, and I believe the Bills do as well since McConkey stated publicly he has met with them like 3 times now.  But I went Franklin for 2 reasons...I don't think McConkey reaches us on that trade down and I do think there is substance to the Bills being high on Franklin.  

Edited April 18 by Alphadawg7

[Einstein's Dog]

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I am about to post a recap of Brandon Beanes press conference today.  One of the take aways is that I think there is no chance he will be trading for an established WR.  He specifically addressed how when we got Diggs, it was what the team needed with Allen being an ascending player.  Then he very specifically stated that with Josh at the level he is now that he does not believe he needs that like he did when they went and got Diggs.  

 

I think you may be falling into the trap of believing what is said during the free lying period.  Beane is setting the ground work for the worst case scenario - in case none of the trades he wants materialize.  He is setting up low expectations by design and if he can produce it will just make him look good.

 

As it stands now this is by far the worst Beane has done year over year for the on-paper talent.  It's not over, but as it currently stands this is a drastic rebuild.

[Alphadawg7]

8 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I think you may be falling into the trap of believing what is said during the free lying period.  Beane is setting the ground work for the worst case scenario - in case none of the trades he wants materialize.  He is setting up low expectations by design and if he can produce it will just make him look good.

 

As it stands now this is by far the worst Beane has done year over year for the on-paper talent.  It's not over, but as it currently stands this is a drastic rebuild.

Respectfully disagree, Beane has always been pretty straight forward with this stuff and he is echoing what he has always said and done.  

Edited April 18 by Alphadawg7

[Einstein's Dog]

4 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Respectfully disagree, Beane has always been pretty straight forward with this stuff and he is echoing what he has always said and done.  

I remember Beane saying not to expect any big moves in FA and then we got someone, don't remember who maybe Von or Floyd.  No one remembers what he said about it because no one cared.

 

I don't see how you think Beane is echoing what he has always said and done.  He changes.  Remember when he said he doesn't believe in rebuilding?  Well, what's it going to be Beane - a rebuild or are you going to get a WR1?

 

Beane is trying to set expectations low.  I don't for a minute believe this is what he wants, and also don't believe this is what we will end up with.

[Alphadawg7]

https://bleacherreport.com/post/sports-betting/913586c7-723c-4be5-b20a-abdda04c4112
 

Jayden going 2nd odds decrease and Mayes increase.

 

Like I’ve been saying, I’m hearing Maye is getting momentum in Washington

[Alphadawg7]

Funny...I am already working on a v2.0 and changes at the top are starting to reveal a path that would push Odunze down the board and I am not sure how I feel about it.  

 

A popular place for him is either at 9 to the Bears, or the Bears trade back given they only have 4 draft picks.  But those 4 picks are 2 first rounders, a 3rd and a 4th...so they have a ton of draft cap value even with 4 picks, so I am not so sure they feel they must trade back either rather than add an elite prospect here.  

 

And if they go ahead and make their pick, Odunze feels like a luxury pick given they have DJ Moore.  They can find a potential WR2 to replace Allen maybe in round 3 or 4 with the draft being deep.  So I have this feeling that they might look at filling an expensive spot by adding a premier pass rushing prospect here.

 

So lets say that happens...I still think Jets take Bowers, not Odunze given they already have Wilson and Bowers is the ultimate mismatch.  

 

Vikings are up now at 11...they won't take him...if they don't go QB (JJ McCarthy already off the board in this mock having missed out on trading up) they likely do something like take the top Corner there.  

 

Now we are at 12...Broncos...sure, they could take him here.  But would they instead take a QB like Bo Nix here they reportedly like instead?  QB is more important than a WR and there is a deep WR draft.  Maybe they trade back...but with who?  Saw someone posting Colts might move up for Nabers...but would they for Odunze?  Lets say they go Nix...

 

Now its 13 and Raiders are up...they could take Odunze here as an heir to Adams, and that would make sense.  They still could go Penix here or take one of the premier OL guys on the board still...or even trade back.  

 

I don't know...my gut makes me think Odunze can't get this far down...but if he gets past Chicago, there is a path where he could fall into the teens.  If that happens, I am wondering what Beane starts thinking.  

 

Anyways...just more of my thoughts out loud here as I work on v2.0 which does have some changes based on new things I am hearing and seeing.

[gonzo1105]

6 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Funny...I am already working on a v2.0 and changes at the top are starting to reveal a path that would push Odunze down the board and I am not sure how I feel about it.  

 

A popular place for him is either at 9 to the Bears, or the Bears trade back given they only have 4 draft picks.  But those 4 picks are 2 first rounders, a 3rd and a 4th...so they have a ton of draft cap value even with 4 picks, so I am not so sure they feel they must trade back either rather than add an elite prospect here.  

 

And if they go ahead and make their pick, Odunze feels like a luxury pick given they have DJ Moore.  They can find a potential WR2 to replace Allen maybe in round 3 or 4 with the draft being deep.  So I have this feeling that they might look at filling an expensive spot by adding a premier pass rushing prospect here.

 

So lets say that happens...I still think Jets take Bowers, not Odunze given they already have Wilson and Bowers is the ultimate mismatch.  

 

Vikings are up now at 11...they won't take him...if they don't go QB (JJ McCarthy already off the board in this mock having missed out on trading up) they likely do something like take the top Corner there.  

 

Now we are at 12...Broncos...sure, they could take him here.  But would they instead take a QB like Bo Nix here they reportedly like instead?  QB is more important than a WR and there is a deep WR draft.  Maybe they trade back...but with who?  Saw someone posting Colts might move up for Nabers...but would they for Odunze?  Lets say they go Nix...

 

Now its 13 and Raiders are up...they could take Odunze here as an heir to Adams, and that would make sense.  They still could go Penix here or take one of the premier OL guys on the board still...or even trade back.  

 

I don't know...my gut makes me think Odunze can't get this far down...but if he gets past Chicago, there is a path where he could fall into the teens.  If that happens, I am wondering what Beane starts thinking.  

 

Anyways...just more of my thoughts out loud here as I work on v2.0 which does have some changes based on new things I am hearing and seeing.

 

I think your looking into it too much. Odunze is a top 6 player in the draft. If he somehow slips by the Bears at 9 someone is going to take him just because he's by far the best player on the board. If that happens someone is coming up the board to get him.

[Alphadawg7]

12 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

 

I think your looking into it too much. Odunze is a top 6 player in the draft. If he somehow slips by the Bears at 9 someone is going to take him just because he's by far the best player on the board. If that happens someone is coming up the board to get him.

 

I don't disagree...which is why I was having a hard time with how it was falling...its still a work in progress

 

[GunnerBill]

Odunze won't get past #9. Not. A. Chance. If he is there the Bears either take him or take a bounty to move back so someone else can. If Chicago does not get an offer they like enough they will just pick Odunze.

[Alphadawg7]

On 4/19/2024 at 3:16 PM, GunnerBill said:

Odunze won't get past #9. Not. A. Chance. If he is there the Bears either take him or take a bounty to move back so someone else can. If Chicago does not get an offer they like enough they will just pick Odunze.

I don’t disagree that what you say makes sense…and it’s what I think too.  Although I wouldn’t say not a chance…all it takes is Bears to go OL or DL, and there is a lot of talk about them addressing OL after Caleb has made some social comments about importance of the OL.  There are some elite talents on the OL in the same spot.  

[BADOLBILZ]

On 4/17/2024 at 10:12 PM, dave mcbride said:

Since Daboll starred running the show, the Bills have been a “windows” offense with regard to the passing game. The last thing they want is the next N’Keal Harry, Kelvin Benjamin, or late-career DeVonte Parker — contested catch guys that can’t separate. When they signed Emmanuel Sanders, he was coming off two seasons in a row where, he, along with Diggs, achieved the best separation rates in the league. In fact, the Bills really wanted to add Sanders in 2020 via trade, but it was not meant to be. Anyway, that trait is what Allen thrives on and what the Bills prioritize. Also, let’s face it — it’s a little bit harder to come down with contested catches in the worst-weather stadium in the league where the QB is the highest-velocity thrower in league history.

 

 

You'd hope that the playoffs would have taught the Bills their lesson in this regard though.   Get-open little guys are great in the regular season when the refs are calling penalties for interference/holding in the secondary........but you want physical WR's in January/February.   Gotta' find a medium.   It exists.   Harry and Benjamin weren't really athletic enough.   Parker had the tools but not the desire and injuries probably sapped him of his juice.   Tee Higgins and DK Metcalf are giant sized WR's who have produced in the regular season and whose games have translated to even more success in the playoffs.

[dave mcbride]

58 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

You'd hope that the playoffs would have taught the Bills their lesson in this regard though.   Get-open little guys are great in the regular season when the refs are calling penalties for interference/holding in the secondary........but you want physical WR's in January/February.   Gotta' find a medium.   It exists.   Harry and Benjamin weren't really athletic enough.   Parker had the tools but not the desire and injuries probably sapped him of his juice.   Tee Higgins and DK Metcalf are giant sized WR's who have produced in the regular season and whose games have translated to even more success in the playoffs.

Don’t get me wrong - I want guys who get open AND make contested catches. I’d love to have Jefferson on the Bills, for instance. But those guys are rare.

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

To me the only way the Bills are moving out of pick 28 and moving down is if they have several WR's rated together.... Say Ladd McKonkey, Troy Franklin, Maliciah Corley, Xavier Legette, Ricky Pearsall and Keon Coleman all fairly close. Plus that means they weren't as high on AD Mitchell either, so if that's the case I'd either want the Bills to trade for a veteran WR or trade down like this mock draft and poster suggests. My guy would be Legette but I know just by all of the workouts Franklin had anmd I dont think it's a smokescreen at all but that's just my opinion.

[nosejob]

I don't think BB moves back. It's just gonna be too easy to lose out in the half a dozen picks or so, where you're hoping your target(s)still is/are.

 

If anything be it, trade up or stay put, I bet Beane is gonna use a 2025 pick (or 2) this year.

 

Since we're supposed to have decent FA money next year, I feel they believe this is the year to restock with the draft. With so many teams with multiple picks in rds. 2 and 3, now's the time to wheel and deal. Next year we should just be shopping to fill holes and go BPA all the way.