Alphamock Draft - v1.0 for first round

[Aussie Joe]

2 minutes ago, Logic said:

I believe it because he fits the Bills "type" at WR.

The rumors were that they liked Addison and JSN a lot last year and did a lot of work on both guys. Now this year, we're hearing Franklin, McConkey, and Worthy. 

All of these guys are smaller, faster, quicker route technician types. Just as, to some extent, John Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, and Stefon Diggs all were.

I actually don't think it's a smokescreen at all. I think the Bills brass has more or less decided that Josh seems to do better with fast guys that run good routes than with big-bodied jump ball types.

I think Franklin is a very real possibility for the Bills come draft weekend.

Yes he does fit their type …as do others …

 

However Ive heard a few people now go beyond the logic ( pardon the pun ) of him being a good fit .and moving on to claiming they have heard from “insiders “ that he is their guy …

 

I would be very surprised if more than half a dozen people would know what the Bills really think at this stage of proceedings… and I don’t think any of them are going to be blabbing to Pat Moran from Talking Buffalo podcast ..unless they want it out there …

[EmotionallyUnstable]

I’d be surprised if the Gmen take a QB with their current GM/Coach combo. I have them pegged at one of the big 3. 
 

I also disagree on the Bears and Jax, but for different reasons. I think the Bears still are firmly in the WR market despite recent acquisitions. Jax isn’t dying for a number one, with Christian Kirk and the additions of Gabe Davis but I do agree that they still could look at WR. Could they do better to protect Lawrence? Probably. 

[Success]

Great read!  As good as any other mock out there.

 

Though, I would be surprised if we trade back instead of up.  Just not that deep of a draft, per just about everyone.

 

[FireChans]

2 hours ago, Logic said:

I dunno...

Brandin Cooks didn't turn out to be what they hoped in that offense last year, Gallup is gone, their tight ends are all pretty mid...

Who on that offense is currently scaring anyone other than CeeDee Lamb?

I think "zero chance" that they take Worthy is an overstatement. 

If you aren’t bold, you can’t lord your predictions over the rest.

[NeverOutNick]

3 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Nice mock, Alpha. 

 

I'm of the mind that Denver does NOT go QB in RD 1. Feels like they may be a sneaky team for a WR after moving Juedy and Sutton being possibly on the way out. Or if the Jets choose Odunze over Bowers then they may grab Bowers.  And I believe that Penix will slip to round 2, yes even past Seattle.

 

I can totally see KC moving to the mid to late 20s for OT help. Great call. 

 

All in all, good work with solid reasoning.

If i could get great odds I’d bet $50 that Bo Nix ends up a bronco first round I would. I feel like that’s one of the locks of the draft 

[dave mcbride]

2 hours ago, Logic said:

I believe it because he fits the Bills "type" at WR.

The rumors were that they liked Addison and JSN a lot last year and did a lot of work on both guys. Now this year, we're hearing Franklin, McConkey, and Worthy. 

All of these guys are smaller, faster, quicker route technician types. Just as, to some extent, John Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, and Stefon Diggs all were.

I actually don't think it's a smokescreen at all. I think the Bills brass has more or less decided that Josh seems to do better with fast guys that run good routes than with big-bodied jump ball types.

I think Franklin is a very real possibility for the Bills come draft weekend.

Since Daboll starred running the show, the Bills have been a “windows” offense with regard to the passing game. The last thing they want is the next N’Keal Harry, Kelvin Benjamin, or late-career DeVonte Parker — contested catch guys that can’t separate. When they signed Emmanuel Sanders, he was coming off two seasons in a row where, he, along with Diggs, achieved the best separation rates in the league. In fact, the Bills really wanted to add Sanders in 2020 via trade, but it was not meant to be. Anyway, that trait is what Allen thrives on and what the Bills prioritize. Also, let’s face it — it’s a little bit harder to come down with contested catches in the worst-weather stadium in the league where the QB is the highest-velocity thrower in league history.

Edited April 18 by dave mcbride

[BillsFan130]

I still don't see Beane trading back. If anything I think he trades up as he has shown to do that a lot in the past.

 

Good post, enjoyed reading this 

[Richard Noggin]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I don't think Polk will go round 1. I do think Worthy will somewhere. I still have spidey senses about Miami.

 

I also still think Daniels will be #2. 

 

Agreed on Daniels being QB#2, and moreover, if WAS goes with Maye instead (can't see it, but what do I know), then how could New England possibly NOT draft Daniels at 3? They aren't going to draft a generational WR to play with Zappe and Brissett. Waste a year of his rookie WR deal like that? Guy who basically enters the league as a turnkey WR1? That's bad drafting tbh. Unless they're trading up behind him with urgency to also grab a QB. 

 

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think Miami are completely committed to the idea that they will win with offense. McDaniel was basically slobbering over Worthy at the Texas pro day.

 

Hill + Waddle + Worthy = WTF (or WWH: World War Hill)

 

Agree though that Worthy could get drafted much earlier than most boards have him ranked. Darrius Heyward-Bey, anyone? Ruggs? (Raiders lol.) John Ross?

 

4 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

Nice work @Alphadawg7!

 

I'm biased, bc I'm a big fan of Worthy and the impact he could being to this offense/Brady's scheme.  Beane has moved in front of Dallas before and perhaps he will again.

 

JMO, I'm not a fan of trading back in this draft. Rather move up "modestly" in Rd1 and/or make a big jump in Rd2 (ie trade next yrs Diggs pick to say Car for their 2nd selection in Rd2, acquire their top fourth pick as well).  If the right DL is still there.

 

I agree on S being a nice add in 3rd round, if we move back.  But I could see in my trade scenario, of finding a good prospect at top of 4th.

 

Fun time of year, lots of options with the extra pick next yr now

 

 

 

 

 

Yes to Worthy for sure, although I'm doubting he's there at 28. Remember Allen with Foster? With Brown? With Diggs and Davis at times? With Sanders even for flashes? Josh Allen flourishes with deep threat WRs, clearly. Possibly where the reported Troy Franklin interest comes in. He can run all the routes but excels getting downfield, and won't be off the board at 28 for sure.

 

The last two years the Bills haven't really had that speed element, and we've watched Allen scuffle more and get impatient at times. There is more to to the dysfunction than a lack of WR speed, but I think we can all agree that Allen looks great with a burner on the boundary. (Allen also had prime Beasley moving the chains when he had reborn John Brown stretching coverages, so he did both things well. I really just think Allen needs targets who excel at different levels, like any QB. And when he has that, he can be legendary. The Bills have recently lacked that ability to threaten defenses at every level.) 

[transplantbillsfan]

I strongly believe if Odunze falls out of the top 10 Beane is going to work some magic on the phones.

 

Dude screams Buffalo.

[Alphadawg7]

5 hours ago, FireChans said:

@Alphadawg7

 

Jerry Jones hasn’t made a “cute” first round pick in many years now. Their first round pick last year was their LT in waiting while Smith got old (and was quite a foresight).

 

Zero chance they take Worthy imo. DB or OL will be their pick, or another WR. 

There hasn’t been as tempting bait as Worthy though and I think he is not gonna be able to resist.  Not like it’s a bad pick, he’s a great fit there. 

[MJS]

7 hours ago, Freddie's Dead said:

Interesting draft Dawg.  But if the Bills pass on AD Mitchell, a brick might go through my TV.

Not from me. He is the one guy I hope they steer clear from in round 1. Motivation issues. Not coachable. Gives up on plays, even plays he is targeted. Not dynamic with the ball in his hands. Plays slower than his 40 time. The weird stuff about diabetes and how he handles it coming out.

 

I do not like what I hear about him, regardless of how talented he is physically. He doesn't sound like a guy the Bills would be high on, anyway. I'd let some other team find out about him. There are plenty of other talented receivers.

[freddyjj]

2 hours ago, MJS said:

Not from me. He is the one guy I hope they steer clear from in round 1. Motivation issues. Not coachable. Gives up on plays, even plays he is targeted. Not dynamic with the ball in his hands. Plays slower than his 40 time. The weird stuff about diabetes and how he handles it coming out.

 

I do not like what I hear about him, regardless of how talented he is physically. He doesn't sound like a guy the Bills would be high on, anyway. I'd let some other team find out about him. There are plenty of other talented receivers.

Not sure I've seen this posted here.  https://steelersdepot.com/2024/04/scouts-raise-concerns-regarding-texas-wr-adonai-mitchells-maturity-health/

 

Doesn't sound like a process guy.  Also, Patrick Peterson is only Type 1 diabetic that I know of who has managed to have a long, productive NFL career.

[BuffaloBillyG]

7 hours ago, NeverOutNick said:

If i could get great odds I’d bet $50 that Bo Nix ends up a bronco first round I would. I feel like that’s one of the locks of the draft 

It's a good fit. But as much as everyone wants to mock a QB to them, I strongly feel like Denver goes in a different direction than WB round 1. Guess we'll see soon enough.

[GunnerBill]

53 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

It's a good fit. But as much as everyone wants to mock a QB to them, I strongly feel like Denver goes in a different direction than WB round 1. Guess we'll see soon enough.

 

But then what do they do at QB? That's the question for me. I actually think the Vikings could if they really had to roll Darnold out. The Raiders could role out Minshew. These guys have started in the NFL. But who are the Broncos rolling out? There is nobody on that roster capable of starting and not being by far and away the worst QB in the league.

 

They have no second round pick either. So if they don't take one at #12 they have to hope one gets to round 3. I can imagine a world where they trade back in round one.... but even then the Raiders are right behind them and the risk is four are already gone.... if you only like one of the other two are you going to risk letting the Raiders get him? 

 

They are in the worst spot in the NFL right now IMO. And I think they are almost forced to reach on a QB at #12. They have been horribly mismanaged. 

[Matt_In_NH]

Go through 36 and project who the Bills get please..........

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

13 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Here is my official version 1.0 on a first round Mock.  I am going to try and find the time to make a 2 rounder at some point as well.  Since I am not there yet, I did add what I believe the Bills first pick in the 2nd round will be in the notes below since in this mock I have the Bills trading back a little bit.  

 

1. Chicago - Caleb Williams, QB, USC:  No brainer here, everything points to this being their guy.
2. Washington - Drake Maye, QB, UNC:  I have believed him to be the pick over Jayden Daniels, and I have someone I trust who has insight who tells me that which QB is still unsettled and that there are supporters for both Maye and Daniels and he thinks its going to fall Maye when its all said and done.
3. New England - Marvin Harrison, Jr:  With Washington taking Maye, I think NE opts to take what many see as the best player in this draft.
4. *TRADE* - Minnesota (via Arizona):  Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU:  Minnesota sends their 2 first round picks to AZ to move up and get their QB.
5. Chargers - Malik Nabers, WR, LSU:  Having lost their top 2 WR's, they add an elite weapon for Herbert, especially with last years first round WR not looking the part yet.
6. NY Giants - JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan:  Having a QB sitting here that can at least push or challenge Jones is too tempting to pass up for the Giants, although it was hard to pass on Odunze.  
7. Titans - Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame:  Having the best OT in this draft fall in their lap here is a gift they sprint to the podium to select.  
8. Atlanta - Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida St:  While I think Atlanta is going to get some calls for this pick, and trading down is tempting, but the chance to add the best pass rusher in the draft is too tempting and we go ahead and stick with the pick.  
9. Chicago - Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama:  While I know Odunze is a popular pick here, he is also more of a luxury pick for a team with a long term WR1 already in DJ Moore and they can find a great compliment to him to replace Keenan Allen in the next year or 2 later in this draft with how deep WR is.  Chicago instead looks to bolster their pass rush with adding Turner at 9.  With 4 QB's off the board already, the trade up interest here was lighter than expected and they decide to make their pick.
10. NY Jets - Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia:  While someone like Odunze is tempting here, Jets already have a WR1 and look to add what is maybe the biggest mismatch creator of any player in this draft and without question the best TE prospect to come out in over a decade.  
11. Arizona (VIA TRADE from Vikings) - Rome Odunze, WR, Washington:  Cardinals are ecstatic to have moved back and landed extra picks and still get one of the best WR's in this draft who would quite frankly be the top WR in most drafts.  They still get their new weapon for Murray and extra draft ammo to boot.  
12. Broncos - Michael Penix Jr, QB, Washington:  With a glaring hole at QB and the largest dead cap hit in history, Broncos look to reset here and bring in Penix.
13. Raiders - Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo:  Draft falls great for Raiders where they have their pick of a top OT or the first CB off the board.  With depth at OL in this draft, they opt to take top rated CB in the draft.
14. Saints - Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn St:  With big needs at OT, Saints also have the draft fall well and are able to take the 2nd best OT prospect in the draft. 
15. Colts - Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama:  Colts need a lot of secondary help both at Safety and CB.  With no safeties worthy of this early of a selection, Arnold comes off the board to help bolster their secondary.
16. Seattle - Byron Murphy, DL, Texas:  I had originally thought maybe this could be a home for Penix, but I think Denver jumps first.  Seattle needs major help on the DL and they make the move here to bolster that unit with someone who can get off the ball and shoot gaps.
17. Jaguars - Brian Thomas Jr, WR, LSU:  My heart wants to write *TRADE* here and input Buffalo Bills name, just like I wanted to above for Odunze when he got past Chicago (but can't see Jets trading him to us, nor can I see AZ passing on him at 11 the way the draft fell).  But, they need in the worst way to find out of Football Jesus is really the guy they thought he was when they drafted him.   They need a WR1 bad, and BTJ is too good to pass up here and they rebuff trade offers and get Lawerence a Ridley replacement.  
18. Bengals -  Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington:  They have to find a way to keep Burrow on his feet and healthy and are fortunate this a great OT draft early and land one of the best ones in the draft here at 18.  
19. LA Rams - Cooper DeJean, CB, Rams:  I know a lot of people assume they look at DT here, and Newton was tempting, but the Rams biggest 2 needs on defense are IMHO at CB and Edge.  I had home town Latu penciled in here, but with concern about his medicals potentially affecting his stock, I think they opt for the swiss army knife himself with Cooper, and they know a thing or two about "Coopers" in LA.  
20. Pittsburgh - Jackson Powers-Johnson, IOL, Oregon:  Steelers need a Center and here is there chance to add the best IOL prospect in the draft who can potentially come in and shore up that C position for years to come.  
21. Miami - Jer'Zhan Newton, DL, Illinois:  With big needs at IOL and DL, they have a lot of options here.  But when one of the best DL drop here he is too good to pass up given the guys on their roster now are nothing more than role players.  
22. Eagles - Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson:  Eagles need help in a big way at CB, and I think one way or another, Eagles will be going CB here in the draft.  
23. Arizona (VIA TRADE from Vikings):  Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA:  Having now 3 first round picks, AZ has the ammo to take the gamble on the concerns on medicals and take one of the best pass rushers in the draft.
24. Dallas - Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas:  The smart move here would be to go OL, and its what I would do if I was the GM.  However, Jerry Jones can't help himself here and falls in love with elite speed in that dome opposite Lamb and makes the surprise pick of the first round thus far.
25. Packers - Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama:  With the trade of Douglas to the Bills, GB looks to the draft to find its next CB opposite Jaire.  
26. Tampa - Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn St:  Bucs considered IOL here, but the value of IOL vs DL later is greater and make the move to bolster their pass rush now.
27. *TRADE* Chiefs (Via Arizona):  Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia:  Chiefs can't risk waiting on this guy to get any closer to them and make the move to go get him.  
28. *TRADE* Commanders (Via Buffalo):  JC Latham, OL, Alabama:  Buffalo was tempted to take a WR here, however, Beane gets an offer to move back and pick up a 3rd rounder we are lacking so Commanders can come get some help to protect their new QB Maye.  (BUFFALO sends pick 28 for picks 36 and 78)
29. Detroit - AD Mitchell, WR, Texas:  Lions benefiting from the Bills trade back land yet another weapon in what could be the most explosive offense in the NFC next year and for years to come.
30. Ravens - Ja'Lynn Polk, WR, Washington:  A guy not being talked about enough goes here to the Ravens who look to add a playmaking WR who has the best ball skills outside of his college teammate Odunze in the draft giving Lamar their guy with a big catch radius who also plays physical and may be the best run blocking WR in the draft as well.  
31. 49ers - Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon St:  Trent Williams is about to be 36 and their RT was a mixed bag last year, so they look to the future here knowing they need 2 new OT's sooner rather than later.  
32. Arizona (Via Cheifs) - Graham Barton, IOL, Duke:  Another trade down plays right into the hands of AZ where they land IOL help that can come in and compete to start and is versatile to play guard or tackle.

 

NOTES:  I have Buffalo trading back even with Adonai Mitchell on the board, not because I want them to (I think I would prefer to take Mitchell there), but because I think there is some real smoke to the Bills being very high on Troy Franklin.  This trade back here I have Buffalo landing TROY FRANKLIN, WR, OREGON at pick 36 while adding a 3rd rounder with pick 78.  And between picks 60 and now 78 I think the Bills could add potentially a Pass Rusher and a Safety (or vice versa), including being aggressive to move up from one of those spots using some of the extra ammo we have if someone they covet is there.  

 

Surprises:  I think the 3 biggest surprises of the this mock are:

1. Dallas taking Worthy over the OL help they need.  Just feels like such a Jerry Jones thing to do though.
2. Buffalo passing on Mitchell to trade back.  I think many feel if Mitchell is on the board he would be our pick.
3. Ja'Lynn Polk sneaking in first round.  I think most have him as a round 2 guy, but he fits so well the Ravens offense.  His combo of size, catch radius and blocking really complement the Ravens offense and I do think he is a great fit there.  

Whee.

 

[Bill from NYC]

Good job but hopefully if he does trade down, McDermott will get more than a 3rd round pick.

[BuffaloBillyG]

27 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

But then what do they do at QB? That's the question for me. I actually think the Vikings could if they really had to roll Darnold out. The Raiders could role out Minshew. These guys have started in the NFL. But who are the Broncos rolling out? There is nobody on that roster capable of starting and not being by far and away the worst QB in the league.

 

They have no second round pick either. So if they don't take one at #12 they have to hope one gets to round 3. I can imagine a world where they trade back in round one.... but even then the Raiders are right behind them and the risk is four are already gone.... if you only like one of the other two are you going to risk letting the Raiders get him? 

 

They are in the worst spot in the NFL right now IMO. And I think they are almost forced to reach on a QB at #12. They have been horribly mismanaged. 

Yea, not going to dispute that your logic, reasoning and thoughts are spot on. They are. The NFL in 2024 is all about the QB and if you don't have one...ya gotta get one. Unfortunately, there is sometimes a spot where sound logic, reasoning and common sense don't translate to what teams do. I believe this is one of those times. 

 

Here's where my thoughts differ. I think Denver views this year as a mulligan season. They weren't overly active on the FA QB market even though there were some affordable options there. The only QB in on a top 30 visit for them that is known is Penix. 

 

I think there is a strong possibility Sean Payton is going to roll with Jarrett Stidham and a later round rookie QB for one season as they retool this year and get back to a healthy cap number next year. Getting a Penix or Nix this year does very little other than wasting a year of their rookie cap number on what could be a very down year either way. Stidham will run the offense the way Payton wants. But he will also keep them in contention for an early pick next year. That's where their QB of the future is IMO.

[nosejob]

In this scenario, I'm targeting AZ. at 23 and picking Latu then hiding behind the BPA sign. The guy could be a major impact for years to come.

I would send next years 1st and a 2nd  for the 5 spots, 35 and 71.

 

AZ. with 3 1sts and 3 3rds. I'm sure they wouldn't mind some ammo for the future. I know if I had Murray, I would be thinking ahead.

 

Then I'm taking Ladd at 35.

 

Then I'm gonna swap GB 71 and a 6th for 88 to move from 60 to 41 to grab Legette.

 

Latu, Ladd, Legette then Maason Smith at 88.   Safety and CB can wait especially if we can get Simmons later.

Edited April 18 by nosejob

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Yea, not going to dispute that your logic, reasoning and thoughts are spot on. They are. The NFL in 2024 is all about the QB and if you don't have one...ya gotta get one. Unfortunately, there is sometimes a spot where sound logic, reasoning and common sense don't translate to what teams do. I believe this is one of those times. 

 

Here's where my thoughts differ. I think Denver views this year as a mulligan season. They weren't overly active on the FA QB market even though there were some affordable options there. The only QB in on a top 30 visit for them that is known is Penix. 

 

I think there is a strong possibility Sean Payton is going to roll with Jarrett Stidham and a later round rookie QB for one season as they retool this year and get back to a healthy cap number next year. Getting a Penix or Nix this year does very little other than wasting a year of their rookie cap number on what could be a very down year either way. Stidham will run the offense the way Payton wants. But he will also keep them in contention for an early pick next year. That's where their QB of the future is IMO.

 

If they are doing that and actively tanking I kind of commend them. I'm not sure that is who Sean Peyton is.