Draft sleepers/red flag fallers

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Where are the sleepers?

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

6 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

So question: do you think he plays faster than his 40 time?

 

I sometimes think too much is made of the "underwear olympics".  Not that speed isn't important, but as you note, there are guys who put up fast 40 times, but who just don't have burst off the line or suddenness when changing direction.

 

Some scouts seem to think that Polk has burst, strength, and explosiveness which may be more important to NFL success in a WR than just ability to run fast 40 yds in a straight line.

Yes, I think he very much does.  Speed on the field comes from a lot of things, not just as you put it “underwear Olympics” forty times.  
 

For example, anyone who thinks Worthy is gonna play as fast as Tyreek Hill are puzzling to me.  Hill has elite speed in every capacity, not just straight line speed and is strong and physical despite his short height. 
 

I mean I would take Polk right now over Coleman for example who by almost all accounts is projected to go ahead of Polk.  Coleman does have some separation concerns and he isn’t as good on contested catches as Polk and doesn’t have the level of ball skills Polk has which I think is only second to Odunze in this draft, and a close second.  
 

Honestly I would take Polk over Worthy, Legette, Coleman and Pearsall, all guys projected to go ahead of him.  
 

Worthy to me lacks the strength and frame to be a true WR1, especially in Buffalo.  
 

Legette has maybe a higher ceiling, but also a much lower floor as he is not nearly as polished in many of the areas Polk is.  
 

Pearsall I think is better suited as a WR2, although I do think he had potential to be a great WR2.
 

And Coleman as I said has question marks about creating separation at the next level.  I’m worried he is Gabe Davis with better hands if he can’t separate in the NFL enough. 
 

If we don’t trade up, the top 5 wish list guys for me are currently:  Mitchell, McConkey, Franklin, Polk, Legette.  I  would take Mitchell at 28, but would probably try and trade back if I was going after one of the other guys.  
 

If we trade up, then obviously any of the big 4 are excellent options for us.  My guess would be that Thomas is the most obtainable or maybe Odunze.  
 

 

[gonzo1105]

5 minutes ago, Logic said:

Anyone think the diabetes issue that McGinn reported about this morning -- particularly as it relates to how it affects his mood and motivation levels -- will cause AD Mitchell to fall further than he otherwise might?

I don’t, I expect Mitchell to go in round 1 next week. It’s also the season of feeding media bull#### to get guys to drop that they like. 
 

[Alphadawg7]

9 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Haven’t watched enough of him, but my baseline concern is ability to get open v man at the NFL level.

 

That’s not just him, that’s any relatively slower player. 

 

I get that, but as you said, go watch him play actual football and I promise you that you won't come away with the thought he is a "slower player".  4.54 gets mis labeled as slow, but its not that slow and when you put pads on and getting open and beating man involves everything from agility, route running, strength, etc, you will see that a guy can get open with ease at all 3 phases of the field, even at less than elite speed.  

 

I encourage you and everyone to watch this...I mean he is separating all over the field and every throw is 40 yards down field.  This guy I am telling you all should not be over looked because his "underwear olympics" (as @Beck Watercoined it) 40 times was not as fast as some of the other prospects, but was fast enough.  This dude plays fast with aggression, power, and has elite ball skills and hands.  

 

 

[wppete]

1 hour ago, gonzo1105 said:

Kiran Amegadjie OT Yale

Zak Zinter OG Michigan 

JT Clark WR UTSA

Laiatu Latu DE UCLA

 

If Laiatu Latu falls to #28 Beane should turn in the card ASAP for Latu. Then draft WRs in the 2nd and 4th. 

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I get that, but as you said, go watch him play actual football and I promise you that you won't come away with the thought he is a "slower player".  4.54 gets mis labeled as slow, but its not that slow and when you put pads on and getting open and beating man involves everything from agility, route running, strength, etc, you will see that a guy can get open with ease at all 3 phases of the field, even at less than elite speed.  

 

I encourage you and everyone to watch this...I mean he is separating all over the field and every throw is 40 yards down field.  This guy I am telling you all should not be over looked because his "underwear olympics" (as @Beck Watercoined it) 40 times was not as fast as some of the other prospects, but was fast enough.  This dude plays fast with aggression, power, and has elite ball skills and hands.  

 

 

 

I think Polk is a safe floor guy. He is going to play in this league and be a starting receiver. The upside is what I question a tad. He reminds me a bit of Alec Pierce who went to the Colts a couple of years ago in the second. Probably a better route runner. Doesn't quite have Pierce's size. He is a bit lacking after the catch for my money and while I don't think his top speed is terrible he doesn't get to it quickly.

 

I think if you are double dipping and going like a Worthy for example then Polk in the 2nd... I like what you have as a compliment of skills there. If we only took one and it was Polk in the second I think you have an upgrade on Gabe Davis. But you don't have a true #1 IMO. 

[H2o]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

There’s a world of difference in todays NFL of 4.71 and 4.57 imo

Jerry Rice would be the GOAT today, just like he was previously. 4.71 40 time and all. He was unguardable. He would beat these guys just like a drum in the same way he did everyone in the 80's, 90's, and the early 2000's. He was still cooking DB's even at 40 years old. 

 

Nacua's time of 4.57 was one of the factors that helped push him down draft boards. Then he goes on to log one of the fastest in game speeds of the season.

 

The Underwear Olympics aren't for everybody, nor does everyone who shines in them excel on the field. 

[Alphadawg7]

12 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think Polk is a safe floor guy. He is going to play in this league and be a starting receiver. The upside is what I question a tad. He reminds me a bit of Alec Pierce who went to the Colts a couple of years ago in the second. Probably a better route runner. Doesn't quite have Pierce's size. He is a bit lacking after the catch for my money and while I don't think his top speed is terrible he doesn't get to it quickly.

 

I think if you are double dipping and going like a Worthy for example then Polk in the 2nd... I like what you have as a compliment of skills there. If we only took one and it was Polk in the second I think you have an upgrade on Gabe Davis. But you don't have a true #1 IMO. 

 

I definitely agree with your overall premise in complimenting skills between players and also with him being a safe floor guy.  I will say this though...if we landed both Worthy and Polk, I would put my money on Polk emerging as the WR1 and Worthy as the complimentary speed WR2 as Polk IMHO is a more complete WR than Worthy and will be the more effective player for Allen, especially in those harsh weather outdoor games.  I don't however see any similarities with Alex Pierce as I don't at all seem them a comparable players in really any aspect of their games.  

 

Polk is a precision route runner, who makes quick stops and sharp cuts, and it shows up on tape when they have used him as a RB or on short screens where he is blowing past defenders from complete stops or lateral moving prior to getting the ball.  And he has probably the 2nd best ball skills in a loaded draft to only Odunze, and he has also shown some burst and acceleration at the top of routes to get to the ball and past the defender to make the catch.  

 

No disrespect Gunner, but I think when people use the phrase "an upgrade to Gabe Davis" that is a misleading statement.  What that statement implies is that they are similar players where one maybe does a couple things a little better than Gabe, but that is really selling the comparison short.  Some of the knocks on Davis that keep him from people believing he can be a WR1, or even a top end WR2, are that he has a limited route tree, unreliable hands, lacks awareness, struggles with separation, and is a one dimensional WR (down field guy).  Polk on the other hand is seen to be a precise route runner, with elite ball skills, exceptional hands, who has proven he can play outside and from the slot, gets separation in all 3 phases of the field, and shown excellent awareness to where the ball is to go get it.  

 

While saying he is an upgrade to Gabe Davis is factual IMHO, I think the degree of the upgrade is being understated in the way you presented it.  Polk is certainly a better prospect than  Gabe was coming out, and has a much higher ceiling than just a Gabe Davis upgrade.  And having watched him play a lot this year, I agree that he has a high floor, like feeling confident he is at least going to be a good WR2 for someone.  But to also assume that his ceiling would be a mistake IMHO, I think he has WR1 potential, especially in a situation where you can compliment him with that speed threat opposite him.  

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

There’s a world of difference in todays NFL of 4.71 and 4.57 imo

 

While I agree with you, still worth noting Keenan Allen ran a 4.71 and has been a high end WR1 still in the modern era.  So I think its plausible Rice would have still been a great WR in the modern game, although probably not to the same degree that has him in the GOAT conversations like he is now. 

 

 

Edited April 17 by Alphadawg7

[FireChans]

33 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

While I agree with you, still worth noting Keenan Allen ran a 4.71 and has been a high end WR1 still in the modern era.  So I think its plausible Rice would have still been a great WR in the modern game, although probably not to the same degree that has him in the GOAT conversations like he is now. 

 

 

I’m an all-time KA fan, he was a dude I loved in SD with Rivers.

 

I’m not sure he was ever a traditional high-end WR1.  He was closer to the back end of the top 10 of WR’s rather than top 5 to me.

 

It’s splitting hairs because he’s still a great player, but his peak was still a Davante Adams lite, imo. 

Edited April 17 by FireChans

[SoonerBillsFan]

38 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

While I agree with you, still worth noting Keenan Allen ran a 4.71 and has been a high end WR1 still in the modern era.  So I think its plausible Rice would have still been a great WR in the modern game, although probably not to the same degree that has him in the GOAT conversations like he is now. 

 

 

You know you guys are making a case for Coleman right?  😁

[FireChans]

14 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

You know you guys are making a case for Coleman right?  😁

That’s the exact player I WOUDNT touch. He may have some great individual seasons being fed targets. But he can’t beat man consistently (jump balls are not consistent winners in todays NFL) and he will be a WR that you get and constantly search for another top end WR to pair with him. WR2 ceiling

[Aussie Joe]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think Polk is a safe floor guy. He is going to play in this league and be a starting receiver. The upside is what I question a tad. He reminds me a bit of Alec Pierce who went to the Colts a couple of years ago in the second. Probably a better route runner. Doesn't quite have Pierce's size. He is a bit lacking after the catch for my money and while I don't think his top speed is terrible he doesn't get to it quickly.

 

I think if you are double dipping and going like a Worthy for example then Polk in the 2nd... I like what you have as a compliment of skills there. If we only took one and it was Polk in the second I think you have an upgrade on Gabe Davis. But you don't have a true #1 IMO. 

I got Polk pegged around 50-65… so if the Bills got him with their second pick I wouldn’t be complaining…  ideally it’s after a double dip… 

 

I probably agree that’s it’s unlikely he becomes an No 1 … however If you get a guy in that range are you expecting him to  become be a No 1 ?  Of course it’s nice for it to happen but not sure it should be the expectation…

 

On the other hand … I have heard Beane say he “wants football players not athletes” .. but I don’t think he practices what he preaches looking at a lot of their Top 100 picks …  They seemed to go against type last year with Torrence at the end of the second ..who wasn’t much of an athletic freak… and what do you know … looks like they have found themselves a football player 

 

 

 

Edited April 17 by Aussie Joe

[julian]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

While I agree with you, still worth noting Keenan Allen ran a 4.71 and has been a high end WR1 still in the modern era.  So I think its plausible Rice would have still been a great WR in the modern game, although probably not to the same degree that has him in the GOAT conversations like he is now. 

 

 

Does he get not one, but two HOF QBs in the modern era, if the answer is yes then he’s probably gonna look the same. The difference being the CBs in todays game might be a bit more athletic, but this era of offense has also been aided greatly by rule changes.

 

 I guess I have no fu*king idea

[ghostwriter]

Ja’Lynn Polk, WR, Washington
Luke McCaffrey, WR, Rice

Isaac Guerendo, RB, Louisville

Jarrian Jones, CB, FSU

DJ James, CB, Auburn

Braelon Allen, RB, Wisconsin

Ben Sinnott, TE, Kansas State

Cedric Gray, LB, North Carolina

Beaux Limmer, OG, Arkansas

Javon Baker, WR, UCF

Christian Mohagony, OG, Boston College

Edited April 18 by Victory Formation

[Ralonzo]

Justin Eboigbe led the Alabama DL in tackles from the interior (that includes Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell), but has concerns from '22 neck injury and surgery. Seems like a Process guy, could be a good get in R5 or so.

[Max Fischer]

7 hours ago, FireChans said:

The one strategy that I have always subscribed to is getting day 1/2 talent in day 3 because of poor medicals, off the field concerns, etc. 

 

We have seen this pay off for teams in the past.

 

Mathieu

Hill

Biadasz

Trey Smith

Paye

JOK

Myles Jack

Mixon

 

Those guys all fell due to medicals or off the field stuff. And they all wildly outperformed their draft position.

 

So who are the red flag guys who have great talent, and a not so great background?

 

I think these kind of players are certainly the exception and not the rule. For every Myles Jack, many likely fell for a good reason. 

 

 

 

[Buffalo Junction]

5 hours ago, H2o said:

Jerry Rice would be the GOAT today, just like he was previously. 4.71 40 time and all. He was unguardable. He would beat these guys just like a drum in the same way he did everyone in the 80's, 90's, and the early 2000's. He was still cooking DB's even at 40 years old. 

 

Nacua's time of 4.57 was one of the factors that helped push him down draft boards. Then he goes on to log one of the fastest in game speeds of the season.

 

The Underwear Olympics aren't for everybody, nor does everyone who shines in them excel on the field. 

Different era for Rice without the combine specific training, and despite the google 4.71 40 time everyone likes to quote Walsh said he clocked in at 4.59 and Brant had his lowest at 4.55. What’s more notable though is definitely Walsh stating that Rice could move as fast sideways as forwards…. It’s that fluid change of direction without losing speed that really made him unstoppable. Rice could just be in the same place on the stem at the same time every time. 

[NewEra]

8 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I know this guy isn't a true sleeper, but I think his value is being slept on too much, and that is Ja'lynn Polk, WR, Huskies.  He has superior ball skills and strong hands, and 100% fits that theme Beane and McD want of making the catch.  What he lacks in 40 time he more than makes up for with route precision, physicality, and ball skills.  With a draft this deep, its not a surprise some of these guys are getting almost lost in the shuffle in the draft buzz.  But if the Bills exited this draft with just Polk as the addition at WR, I would still be excited.  

 

Don't get me wrong, not at all saying he should be our target or who we should take at 28.  I am saying, hypothetically Bills go another position at 28 and then wait to pick 60 to draft a WR, if Polk was the guy I would still be very stoked about him.  I know the big knock is the 4.54 forty time...but that is faster than Keenan Allen, Larry Fitzgerald, Cooper Kupp, etc who all had over 4.6 to over 4.7 forty times.  What people fail to realize about 40 times too often is that straight line speed in shorts and does not automatically translate to on field speed of play.  

 

A guy slower in the 40 may play faster or be better at getting separation at the next level than someone who put up a faster time.  It is not the end all be all measurement its made out to be. 

 

So for me, Polk is not getting enough buzz, but I really think he is going to be a very good player in the NFL.  And in Buffalo, where bad weather often helps even the playing field speed wise in those late season and playoff games, having a guy with exceptional ball skills, who runs precise routes and is physical can be a major weapon.  

Polk is MY guy!!! Get a new guy!  😉 

Latu is the biggest question mark. He’s the best pass rusher in the class imo.  His injury history is scary.  A top 10 talent that could slip to the mid 20’s, maybe 30’s (according to some).  
 

Would LOVE to land Latu at 28 and then trade up for Polk (or another WR) in rd 2.

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Max Fischer said:

 

I think these kind of players are certainly the exception and not the rule. For every Myles Jack, many likely fell for a good reason. 

 

 

 

Sure, but is that fail rate any higher than the normal 3rd - 7th fail rate?

 

If there’s a fifth round player that should be a second round player and they hit, they likely hit bigger than the run of the mill JAG that would qualify as a hit in that round.