Draft sleepers/red flag fallers

[FireChans]

The one strategy that I have always subscribed to is getting day 1/2 talent in day 3 because of poor medicals, off the field concerns, etc. 

 

We have seen this pay off for teams in the past.

 

Mathieu

Hill

Biadasz

Trey Smith

Paye

JOK

Myles Jack

Mixon

 

Those guys all fell due to medicals or off the field stuff. And they all wildly outperformed their draft position.

 

So who are the red flag guys who have great talent, and a not so great background?

[JaCrispy]

Newton with his injury?

 

Nabers with character concerns?

 

 

Edited April 17 by JaCrispy

[gonzo1105]

Kiran Amegadjie OT Yale

Zak Zinter OG Michigan 

JT Clark WR UTSA

Laiatu Latu DE UCLA

 

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

Kiran Amegadjie OT Yale

Zak Zinter OG Michigan 

JT Clark WR UTSA

Laiatu Latu DE UCLA

 

Zinter is absolutely a target for me in the later rounds if he’s available. Great IOL replacement player in a year or two. 

[nosejob]

Maason Smith

[Bigvinny]

Jermaine Burton has major character issues. 

 

https://sportsnaut.com/jermaine-burton-nfl-draft-concern/

Edited April 17 by Bigvinny

[Alphadawg7]

30 minutes ago, FireChans said:

The one strategy that I have always subscribed to is getting day 1/2 talent in day 3 because of poor medicals, off the field concerns, etc. 

 

We have seen this pay off for teams in the past.

 

Mathieu

Hill

Biadasz

Trey Smith

Paye

JOK

Myles Jack

Mixon

 

Those guys all fell due to medicals or off the field stuff. And they all wildly outperformed their draft position.

 

So who are the red flag guys who have great talent, and a not so great background?

 

I know this guy isn't a true sleeper, but I think his value is being slept on too much, and that is Ja'lynn Polk, WR, Huskies.  He has superior ball skills and strong hands, and 100% fits that theme Beane and McD want of making the catch.  What he lacks in 40 time he more than makes up for with route precision, physicality, and ball skills.  With a draft this deep, its not a surprise some of these guys are getting almost lost in the shuffle in the draft buzz.  But if the Bills exited this draft with just Polk as the addition at WR, I would still be excited.  

 

Don't get me wrong, not at all saying he should be our target or who we should take at 28.  I am saying, hypothetically Bills go another position at 28 and then wait to pick 60 to draft a WR, if Polk was the guy I would still be very stoked about him.  I know the big knock is the 4.54 forty time...but that is faster than Keenan Allen, Larry Fitzgerald, Cooper Kupp, etc who all had over 4.6 to over 4.7 forty times.  What people fail to realize about 40 times too often is that straight line speed in shorts and does not automatically translate to on field speed of play.  

 

A guy slower in the 40 may play faster or be better at getting separation at the next level than someone who put up a faster time.  It is not the end all be all measurement its made out to be. 

 

So for me, Polk is not getting enough buzz, but I really think he is going to be a very good player in the NFL.  And in Buffalo, where bad weather often helps even the playing field speed wise in those late season and playoff games, having a guy with exceptional ball skills, who runs precise routes and is physical can be a major weapon.  

[Beck Water]

16 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I know this guy isn't a true sleeper, but I think his value is being slept on too much, and that is Ja'lynn Polk, WR, Huskies.  He has superior ball skills and strong hands, and 100% fits that theme Beane and McD want of making the catch.  What he lacks in 40 time he more than makes up for with route precision, physicality, and ball skills.  With a draft this deep, its not a surprise some of these guys are getting almost lost in the shuffle in the draft buzz.  But if the Bills exited this draft with just Polk as the addition at WR, I would still be excited.  

 

Don't get me wrong, not at all saying he should be our target or who we should take at 28.  I am saying, hypothetically Bills go another position at 28 and then wait to pick 60 to draft a WR, if Polk was the guy I would still be very stoked about him.  I know the big knock is the 4.54 forty time...but that is faster than Keenan Allen, Larry Fitzgerald, Cooper Kupp, etc who all had over 4.6 to over 4.7 forty times.  What people fail to realize about 40 times too often is that straight line speed in shorts and does not automatically translate to on field speed of play.  

 

A guy slower in the 40 may play faster or be better at getting separation at the next level than someone who put up a faster time.  It is not the end all be all measurement its made out to be. 

 

So for me, Polk is not getting enough buzz, but I really think he is going to be a very good player in the NFL.  And in Buffalo, where bad weather often helps even the playing field speed wise in those late season and playoff games, having a guy with exceptional ball skills, who runs precise routes and is physical can be a major weapon.  

 

So question: do you think he plays faster than his 40 time?

 

I sometimes think too much is made of the "underwear olympics".  Not that speed isn't important, but as you note, there are guys who put up fast 40 times, but who just don't have burst off the line or suddenness when changing direction.

 

Some scouts seem to think that Polk has burst, strength, and explosiveness which may be more important to NFL success in a WR than just ability to run fast 40 yds in a straight line.

[vtnatefootball11]

58 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

Newton with his injury?

 

Nabers with character concerns?

 

 

 

Naber's won't fall past the top 6, period. 

[GunnerBill]

I have done my true sleepers already but for the specific purposes of this thread I think Zinter absolutely meets the criteria. I am still frustrated we didn't throw a day 3 pick at Andrew Vorhees last year. I know it was a bad injury but I thought he was the best guard in the draft prior to that.

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, gonzo1105 said:

Kiran Amegadjie OT Yale

Zak Zinter OG Michigan 

JT Clark WR UTSA

Laiatu Latu DE UCLA

 

 

Is there something wrong with Amegadjie other than level of competition?

 

I think Latu’s medical concerns raise an interesting question. If it’s bad enough, then he’s off the board. If it’s of no concern, then he’s gone long before the Bills pick. But what if it’s something that is expected to shorten his career, making him a 4-5 year guy?  I’d think the Bills might be very tempted to pull the trigger at 28 if that’s the case and he slips. 

[H2o]

15 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Don't get me wrong, not at all saying he should be our target or who we should take at 28.  I am saying, hypothetically Bills go another position at 28 and then wait to pick 60 to draft a WR, if Polk was the guy I would still be very stoked about him.  I know the big knock is the 4.54 forty time...but that is faster than Keenan Allen, Larry Fitzgerald, Cooper Kupp, etc who all had over 4.6 to over 4.7 forty times.  What people fail to realize about 40 times too often is that straight line speed in shorts and does not automatically translate to on field speed of play.  

 

A guy slower in the 40 may play faster or be better at getting separation at the next level than someone who put up a faster time.  It is not the end all be all measurement its made out to be.  

Don't forget that Jerry Rice originally ran a 4.71 and then a 4.6 time. Puca Nacua last year only ran a 4.57 40, then had one of the fastest in game speeds tracked of all WR's. 

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I have done my true sleepers already but for the specific purposes of this thread I think Zinter absolutely meets the criteria. I am still frustrated we didn't throw a day 3 pick at Andrew Vorhees last year. I know it was a bad injury but I thought he was the best guard in the draft prior to that.

Where are the sleepers?

[gonzo1105]

2 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

Is there something wrong with Amegadjie other than level of competition?

 

I think Latu’s medical concerns raise an interesting question. If it’s bad enough, then he’s off the board. If it’s of no concern, then he’s gone long before the Bills pick. But what if it’s something that is expected to shorten his career, making him a 4-5 year guy?  I’d think the Bills might be very tempted to pull the trigger at 28 if that’s the case and he slips. 

Amegadjie only played 4 games in 2023 as he had a season ending quad injury and hasn’t tested at all. 

[The Jokeman]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

The one strategy that I have always subscribed to is getting day 1/2 talent in day 3 because of poor medicals, off the field concerns, etc. 

 

We have seen this pay off for teams in the past.

 

Mathieu

Hill

Biadasz

Trey Smith

Paye

JOK

Myles Jack

Mixon

 

Those guys all fell due to medicals or off the field stuff. And they all wildly outperformed their draft position.

 

So who are the red flag guys who have great talent, and a not so great background?

Jermaine Burton

[gonzo1105]

Just now, The Jokeman said:

Jermaine Burton

The Bills aren’t going to take Burton unless they’ve had a major philosophy shift 

[FireChans]

34 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I know this guy isn't a true sleeper, but I think his value is being slept on too much, and that is Ja'lynn Polk, WR, Huskies.  He has superior ball skills and strong hands, and 100% fits that theme Beane and McD want of making the catch.  What he lacks in 40 time he more than makes up for with route precision, physicality, and ball skills.  With a draft this deep, its not a surprise some of these guys are getting almost lost in the shuffle in the draft buzz.  But if the Bills exited this draft with just Polk as the addition at WR, I would still be excited.  

 

Don't get me wrong, not at all saying he should be our target or who we should take at 28.  I am saying, hypothetically Bills go another position at 28 and then wait to pick 60 to draft a WR, if Polk was the guy I would still be very stoked about him.  I know the big knock is the 4.54 forty time...but that is faster than Keenan Allen, Larry Fitzgerald, Cooper Kupp, etc who all had over 4.6 to over 4.7 forty times.  What people fail to realize about 40 times too often is that straight line speed in shorts and does not automatically translate to on field speed of play.  

 

A guy slower in the 40 may play faster or be better at getting separation at the next level than someone who put up a faster time.  It is not the end all be all measurement its made out to be. 

 

So for me, Polk is not getting enough buzz, but I really think he is going to be a very good player in the NFL.  And in Buffalo, where bad weather often helps even the playing field speed wise in those late season and playoff games, having a guy with exceptional ball skills, who runs precise routes and is physical can be a major weapon.  

Haven’t watched enough of him, but my baseline concern is ability to get open v man at the NFL level.

 

That’s not just him, that’s any relatively slower player. 

[The Jokeman]

1 minute ago, gonzo1105 said:

The Bills aren’t going to take Burton unless they’ve had a major philosophy shift 

Yeah but ironically he reminds me the most of Diggs when it comes to skill set. 

[FireChans]

7 minutes ago, H2o said:

Don't forget that Jerry Rice originally ran a 4.71 and then a 4.6 time. Puca Nacua last year only ran a 4.57 40, then had one of the fastest in game speeds tracked of all WR's. 

There’s a world of difference in todays NFL of 4.71 and 4.57 imo

[Logic]

Anyone think the diabetes issue that McGinn reported about this morning -- particularly as it relates to how it affects his mood and motivation levels -- will cause AD Mitchell to fall further than he otherwise might?