Dane Bruglers 7 Round Mock

[mannc]

23 minutes ago, BeastMaster said:

 

Worthy has explosiveness that nobody else has in this draft, and he will be gone early second at best.

 

In a perfect world, we trade back and get Worthy and Coleman or Legette, but I'm fine taking him at 28.

 

If you want Thomas II as your guy, you are giving Josh Allen little to no help for next season because he's not ready to play against NFL defenses, and he may never be.

So a guy who absolutely abused SEC defensive backs this year “is not ready to play against NFL defenses”?? Yeah, ok.

[Warriorspikes51]

16 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

Wait, so Legette is there at 60?

 

Then just pick him and call it a day. Thomas and Legette? Are you serious?

 

If both pan out, we are unstoppable for next 4 years and then we pay one and get comp pick for the other. If one pans out it's still great.

 

That right there is my #1 outcome within the realm of reality…until I get the reality stone from Thanos

 

Would be amazing to add those 2.  I’ve done several mocks landing both.

 

May need to get as high as 13-14 for Brian Thomas Jr.  (28, 128, 2025 2nd, 4th)

 

Legette could go anywhere from the end of Round 1 to mid Round 2.  
 

If we finish Thursday night after drafting Brian Thomas Jr  & XL is still on the board to start round 2, I’d call Carolina who has pick 33 & 39

 

package 60, 6th & the other 2025 2nd for one of those picks

Edited April 17 by Warriorspikes51

[julian]

1 hour ago, KDIGGZ said:

Played at a smaller school and ran a "slow" 40 (4.54 I believe). He was cooking the corners he faced and that's all you can really do. They probably would have preferred to see him do it against the SEC guys like the guys from Texas etc

That sounds logical, seems like a tough evaluation 

[SoTier]

6 hours ago, FLFan said:

https://theathletic.com/5418352/2024/04/17/nfl-mock-draft-2024-full-seven-rounds-dane-brugler/?source=user_shared_article

 

I was not sure where else to post this but mods please merge if appropriate.

 

For those of you with Athletic access, Brugler’s 7 round mock draft posted today.  Linked above. If you are not familiar with him, he publishes  an excellent compendium and ranking of NFL draft prospects each year that can also be found on the Athletic. He has the Bills trading up with Jacksonville to 17 using their first this year, two fourths, and a second next year to take Brian Thomas.  He has us with Cole Bishop, Safety in the second, and Javon Baker, WR in the third.  This seems like an excellent result to me, but certainly interested in what the more knowledgeable draft gurus around here think.
 

 I would be thrilled with Thomas in particular. Bishop seems more of a box safety but does have some cover skills as well.  Baker is a potential replacement to Gabe’s role on this team, but with more ability to get open in intermediate routes.  Good YAC ability as well. 

 

 

 

I would be good with giving up that for Thomas.   I think that most analysts think Thomas will go in the teens.  I'm not into the draft more than to have a very superficial knowledge of the prospects the Bills could be targeting in the first round, so I defer others on the rest of the Bills picks.

[mannc]

19 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

I would be good with giving up that for Thomas.   I think that most analysts think Thomas will go in the teens.  I'm not into the draft more than to have a very superficial knowledge of the prospects the Bills could be targeting in the first round, so I defer others on the rest of the Bills picks.

Quite a few draft analysts have Thomas ranked ahead of one or more of the "Big 3".  It's not inconceivable that he could be drafted in the top 10... 

[Warriorspikes51]

3 minutes ago, mannc said:

Quite a few draft analysts have Thomas ranked ahead of one or more of the "Big 3".  It's not inconceivable that he could be drafted in the top 10... 

 

Chris Simms is the only I saw. NBC just wants attention

[mannc]

2 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

Chris Simms is the only I saw. NBC just wants attention

He’s not the only one.  I’ve seen at least two others rank Thomas ahead of Adunze and one guy rank him ahead of MHJ.

[BeastMaster]

1 hour ago, mannc said:

So a guy who absolutely abused SEC defensive backs this year “is not ready to play against NFL defenses”?? Yeah, ok.

He was able to utilize his athletic skills to beat defenses. He also had maybe the best QB coming out of college and Nabers opposite him to leave him one on one against the weaker DB.

 

He has no route tree and suspect hands. He also hasn't shown much in terms of toughness either.

 

NFL defenses will lock him up if he doesn't learn how to be a wideout.

 

I'm not opposed to drafting him at 28, but he does not provide much help this upcoming season IMO unless he takes some major steps in development.

 

I'll hope I'm wrong if the Bills select him because it would be criminal to waste another year of Allen's prime

[In Summary]

That's not a crazy trade-up scenario.  Beane will view the extra 2025 2nd as money to play with this year.  

[Ralonzo]

7 hours ago, MikePJ76 said:

Buffalo Bills

1 (17). Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
2 (60). Cole Bishop, S, Utah
4 (128). Javon Baker, WR, UCF
5 (160). Beaux Limmer, G/C, Arkansas
5 (163). Nelson Ceaser III, Edge, Houston
6 (200). Tyler Davis, DT, Clemson
6 (204). Ethan Driskell, OT, Marshall
7 (248). Kimani Vidal, RB, Troy

 

he has Jax take Kool Aid MMcKinistry at 28 with Buffalo's original pick....and then Troy Franklin in the second.

 

Just for the heck of it. Let's say the Bills opt instead to move down from 28 (and 60 lol). What are some potential draft paths within this 7 round mock? Make some picks based on what's left on Brugler's board right around those spots, guessing who he might mock to Buffalo (we disregard the butterfly effect).

 

[TRADE 1] Buffalo takes LV's offer to move up for Penix that Brugler mocks at 29, and gets 44 and 77 in return (which is a little light on the Raiders side - they get 209 Rich Hill value for 195)

[TRADE 2] Then at 60, let's hope Tampa wants someone and would give up 89 and 92 (nearly perfect value match). Barring that I'd still be considering the OT.

 

1 (44). Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon - The Bills guy all along

3 (77). Kiran Amegadjie, OT, Yale - Gifted developmental T

3 (89). Austin Booker, Edge, Kansas - Rotational edge with upside of a future starter

3 (92). Malik Mustapha, S, Wake Forest - Great tackler for the Poyer role

4 (128). Mason McCormick, G, So. Dak. State - IOL mauler for Kromer to mold

4 (133). Gabe Hall, DL, Baylor - Depth for 3T or 5T

5 (144). Johnny Wilson, WR, Florida State - Big target at X, contested catch monster

5 (160). Elijah Jones, CB, Boston College - This is @GunnerBill's guy

5 (163). Jordan Magee, LB, Temple - Fits the Bills mold with speed and relentless pursuit

6 (200). Ryan Watts, CB/S, Texas - Length and ranginess, a bigger Cam Lewis?

6 (204). Cornelius Johnson, WR, Michigan - Tools of an X receiver

7 (248). Kimani Vidal, RB, Troy - We'll give Brugler this one

 

So which draft would you prefer, the trade up or the trade down? This might fit in with that Moneyball thread from yesterday too about the merits of tradnig up vs trading down.

 

[NoSaint]

2 hours ago, In Summary said:

That's not a crazy trade-up scenario.  Beane will view the extra 2025 2nd as money to play with this year.  

whether to move up from 28, or from 60 I’m near certain it’ll package into a trade and one of those two picks will be a wr… 

 

whether edge 28 and wr at the top of the 2nd or a trade up for the big 4 wr… 

 

id be shocked if we don’t use it 

36 minutes ago, Ralonzo said:

 

Just for the heck of it. Let's say the Bills opt instead to move down from 28 (and 60 lol). What are some potential draft paths within this 7 round mock? Make some picks based on what's left on Brugler's board right around those spots, guessing who he might mock to Buffalo (we disregard the butterfly effect).

 

[TRADE 1] Buffalo takes LV's offer to move up for Penix that Brugler mocks at 29, and gets 44 and 77 in return (which is a little light on the Raiders side - they get 209 Rich Hill value for 195)

[TRADE 2] Then at 60, let's hope Tampa wants someone and would give up 89 and 92 (nearly perfect value match). Barring that I'd still be considering the OT.

 

1 (44). Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon - The Bills guy all along

3 (77). Kiran Amegadjie, OT, Yale - Gifted developmental T

3 (89). Austin Booker, Edge, Kansas - Rotational edge with upside of a future starter

3 (92). Malik Mustapha, S, Wake Forest - Great tackler for the Poyer role

4 (128). Mason McCormick, G, So. Dak. State - IOL mauler for Kromer to mold

4 (133). Gabe Hall, DL, Baylor - Depth for 3T or 5T

5 (144). Johnny Wilson, WR, Florida State - Big target at X, contested catch monster

5 (160). Elijah Jones, CB, Boston College - This is @GunnerBill's guy

5 (163). Jordan Magee, LB, Temple - Fits the Bills mold with speed and relentless pursuit

6 (200). Ryan Watts, CB/S, Texas - Length and ranginess, a bigger Cam Lewis?

6 (204). Cornelius Johnson, WR, Michigan - Tools of an X receiver

7 (248). Kimani Vidal, RB, Troy - We'll give Brugler this one

 

So which draft would you prefer, the trade up or the trade down? This might fit in with that Moneyball thread from yesterday too about the merits of tradnig up vs trading down.

 

I like his way more

[billsfan_34]

8 hours ago, mannc said:

Except in the playoffs, where offensive holding is legal…

Right! KC can teach a class on how to hold

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, Ralonzo said:

 

Just for the heck of it. Let's say the Bills opt instead to move down from 28 (and 60 lol). What are some potential draft paths within this 7 round mock? Make some picks based on what's left on Brugler's board right around those spots, guessing who he might mock to Buffalo (we disregard the butterfly effect).

 

[TRADE 1] Buffalo takes LV's offer to move up for Penix that Brugler mocks at 29, and gets 44 and 77 in return (which is a little light on the Raiders side - they get 209 Rich Hill value for 195)

[TRADE 2] Then at 60, let's hope Tampa wants someone and would give up 89 and 92 (nearly perfect value match). Barring that I'd still be considering the OT.

 

1 (44). Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon - The Bills guy all along

3 (77). Kiran Amegadjie, OT, Yale - Gifted developmental T

3 (89). Austin Booker, Edge, Kansas - Rotational edge with upside of a future starter

3 (92). Malik Mustapha, S, Wake Forest - Great tackler for the Poyer role

4 (128). Mason McCormick, G, So. Dak. State - IOL mauler for Kromer to mold

4 (133). Gabe Hall, DL, Baylor - Depth for 3T or 5T

5 (144). Johnny Wilson, WR, Florida State - Big target at X, contested catch monster

5 (160). Elijah Jones, CB, Boston College - This is @GunnerBill's guy

5 (163). Jordan Magee, LB, Temple - Fits the Bills mold with speed and relentless pursuit

6 (200). Ryan Watts, CB/S, Texas - Length and ranginess, a bigger Cam Lewis?

6 (204). Cornelius Johnson, WR, Michigan - Tools of an X receiver

7 (248). Kimani Vidal, RB, Troy - We'll give Brugler this one

 

So which draft would you prefer, the trade up or the trade down? This might fit in with that Moneyball thread from yesterday too about the merits of tradnig up vs trading down.

 

No offense, but this looks like a Patriots draft. Get a stud!

[Richard Noggin]

10 hours ago, Mat68 said:

I would rather flip edge and safety.  Go edge at 60 and safety at 163.  I do not see much difference in the safety prospects as a whole to draft one at 60.  Im not depending on Von to bounce back at his age.  I think you need to add guy ready for snaps immediately.  Edwards and Rapp is an ok pairing. Im not sure there is a safety in the class better than either.  Not looking for elite traits for the position the need to invest a day 2 pick seems unnecessary.    

 

Mostly agree with this thinking, with one adjustment: the Bills NEED a 3rd S who can play meaningful snaps in 2024. Need. How many S saw the field last season? Must have at least a solid 3rd guy and would be ideal if he was someone who could take over a starting role in 2025. (Maybe Cam Lewis is the 3rd S, but he's probably also the 2nd slot CB as well and maybe also 5th boundary CB. I'd like someone ahead of him at S please.)

 

8 hours ago, BeastMaster said:

Just an awful move if the Bills trade up for not just a kid that isn't ready to be a major contributor next season, but also a player that could very well last up until their pick.

 

There's absolutely no need to go up to 17 for this kid. He's not worth the trade up.

 

If you are gonna do a trade up for BTJ, then you might as well go all in and trade up for one of the top three.

 

I would stand pat and draft Worthy at 28 and hope for a trade back up in the second for Legette or Coleman to pair with Worthy

 

The draft noise machine gets a bunch of guys wrong each year, but where is the evidence that BTJ could be one of those guys this year? I haven't seen/heard it yet. Open to the idea, though. (I personally think Worthy could go surprisingly early, maybe ahead of Thomas?)

 

6 hours ago, julian said:

I’ve seen plenty of people agreeing with your idea of Baker eventually becoming a #1, lots of respected talent evaluators, yet I always see him late 2nd,3rd rnd and in some cases a day 3 pick.

 

 Why the disconnect ?

 

Is that really a disconnect? If he's generally a 2/3 projection with upside, and goes in the 4th, then isn't that a steal? Maybe not a monumental steal, exactly, but good value nonetheless?

 

3 hours ago, BeastMaster said:

He was able to utilize his athletic skills to beat defenses. He also had maybe the best QB coming out of college and Nabers opposite him to leave him one on one against the weaker DB.

 

He has no route tree and suspect hands. He also hasn't shown much in terms of toughness either.

 

NFL defenses will lock him up if he doesn't learn how to be a wideout.

 

I'm not opposed to drafting him at 28, but he does not provide much help this upcoming season IMO unless he takes some major steps in development.

 

I'll hope I'm wrong if the Bills select him because it would be criminal to waste another year of Allen's prime

 

Some legitimate reasons here to dig deeper on the prospect's tape and habits and general makeup. However, LSU has historically fielded multiple future starting NFL WRs several times. The last time LSU was stacked at QB+WR, two of those WRs ended up being LEGIT NFL dudes. The time before that, there were also two NFL starting WRs on the same team. Maybe that's why people aren't being more critical of BTJ. Or maybe he's got serious talent paired with explosive SEC production.

 

Again I'm wondering who else is putting this kind of criticism out there? Would love to read it. I lack the expertise and hubris to judge these prospects beyond identifying the guys I'd like to see on the Bills. I'm meh on Thomas tbh. Would prefer Worthy or Legette or even Coleman (which goes against my better judgment) if he falls. 

 

[HappyDays]

8 hours ago, julian said:

I’ve seen plenty of people agreeing with your idea of Baker eventually becoming a #1, lots of respected talent evaluators, yet I always see him late 2nd,3rd rnd and in some cases a day 3 pick.

 

 Why the disconnect ?

 

I heard he doesn't interview well and may have trouble picking up an NFL playbook.

[HappyDays]

Of all the realistic WR draft options I've seen, trading up for BTJ is my least favorite. I just don't think he's worth it. If we're trading up, go all in and do it for one of the top three. Don't half ass it for a player with real questions in his game. Trade back, stay put, or trade all the way up.

 

I know I'm lower on BTJ than most. There is something about his game that just bothers me. Like he leans too much into the one thing that comes easy to him. He doesn't have the competitive alpha mindset that I want my WR1 to have.

 

I also recognize that if I'm wrong about him I'm probably going to be hilariously wrong in a way that will make me want to never voice an opinion on a WR prospect again. I see the massive upside with his pure physical traits. I just am not confident the player will ever live up to those traits.

[BADOLBILZ]

10 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

What do you think of the suggested trade up, though (swap 1sts, Bills give up a 2nd next year and 2 4th round picks this draft)

 

 

Sounds reasonable.    

[julian]

20 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I heard he doesn't interview well and may have trouble picking up an NFL playbook.

Yeah he’s been the WR that isn’t making sense when listening to many say he’s a potential #1 then see him projected in the 3rd and 4th round, but being a poor interview would definitely explain it.

[BeastMaster]

27 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Of all the realistic WR draft options I've seen, trading up for BTJ is my least favorite. I just don't think he's worth it. If we're trading up, go all in and do it for one of the top three. Don't half ass it for a player with real questions in his game. Trade back, stay put, or trade all the way up.

 

I know I'm lower on BTJ than most. There is something about his game that just bothers me. Like he leans too much into the one thing that comes easy to him. He doesn't have the competitive alpha mindset that I want my WR1 to have.

 

I also recognize that if I'm wrong about him I'm probably going to be hilariously wrong in a way that will make me want to never voice an opinion on a WR prospect again. I see the massive upside with his pure physical traits. I just am not confident the player will ever live up to those traits.

I have a similar view on him. I could be wrong, and I hope I am if the Bills draft him, but I see a kid that might not be built to be the guy at WR...which is what will be expected of him from the fans...especially if we trade up and use more draft capital on him than just pick 28.

 

I actually would have been more inclined to draft him had we kept Diggs so he could be brought along slowly without major expectations in 2024. This kid will have an insane amount of pressure on him to perform out the gate, and Josh's prime will be dependent on him developing also. I just don't think it's a good move given the current state of this team.

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

13 hours ago, MikePJ76 said:

Buffalo Bills

1 (17). Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
2 (60). Cole Bishop, S, Utah
4 (128). Javon Baker, WR, UCF
5 (160). Beaux Limmer, G/C, Arkansas
5 (163). Nelson Ceaser III, Edge, Houston
6 (200). Tyler Davis, DT, Clemson
6 (204). Ethan Driskell, OT, Marshall
7 (248). Kimani Vidal, RB, Troy

 

he has Jax take Kool Aid MMcKinistry at 28 with Buffalo's original pick....and then Troy Franklin in the second.

 

Solid top 3 although Buffalo hasn't brought in WR Javon Baker in any capacity that I see, not virtual/combine/sr Bowl, nodda which is surprising since he's a really good WR prospect imo. It doesn't mean we can't take him but have the Bills ever selected a player in the Beane/McDermott era who wasn't brought in for any interviews? Kincaid was interviewed privately at the combine last year at least but wasn't brought in on a top 30 visit.