The Draft is a Total Crapshoot (Per Science)

[Billy Claude]

6 hours ago, finn said:

That could just be the laws of probability at work. If every team just threw darts at their draft board, at least some would have good results.

 

I've always thought the best draft strategy, at least for teams drafting high, would be to trade down incrementally for as many second-round picks as possible, and do the same from the other direction, trading up into the second round. End up with, say, six or seven second-round picks. The odds of hitting gold seem much higher than just two high picks. 

 

I feel this is basically the strategy the Patriots did during between 2000-2010.  They might have had close to as many trade ups as trade downs but almost all the first round trades were trade downs.

 

 

 

[BarleyNY]

4 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

Weird? No, this makes complete sense. Many of these kids come from poverty stricken homes. Now, some are racing around in Porsches with 100 grand in their pockets, and access to hot women, alcohol, and legalized weed (and God knows what else). 

 

I'm not insulting these kids. I'm not at all sure that if I was young, in a college with thousands of hot girls, with a cool million dollars that my behavior would be all that reasoned and mature. In fact, I would bet against it.

 

My guess is that owners (if they are smart) will allocate more resources to investigate, and even spy on some of these kids.

 

Jmo.

 

It is interesting (to me at least) to think that kids getting real money in their pockets in college may help NFL teams by weeding out some of the knuckleheads.

[papazoid]

because most take the risky route of trying to predict upside

 

when it's probably better to go with a safer strategy of the highest floor

 

examples in this draft of the safer highest floor strategy.... Harrison, Alt, Bowers, Fashanu

[BillsVet]

Drafting is more questionable when it involves players who are isolated on the field.  That is, the QBs, WR's, LT's, DE's, and perhaps in man CB's.  They are always in demand, frequently drafted high, and their translation from college to the pros is often more in doubt.  

 

The IOL, DT, LB, S, RB's, and perhaps TE's are a different matter, primarily because they typically aren't drafted high.  When they are, something is special about them to necessitate a RD1 pick which, I believe, makes them less of a risk.  The premium positions listed above get drafted high sometimes without that characteristic...but because they play a high-value position.

 

Nothing is absolute and no team is head and shoulders above the others though.  I recall @BADOLBILZ noting how the Bills during the drought weren't terrible drafting, but they used high picks on lesser positional value, had hits and few busts, but the end result was still those 4-7 win teams.  And during those years, their success at QB, WR, LT, DE was minimal.  And when they took a CB high who excelled, typically those guys lasted one contract and left in UFA like Clements and Gilmore.  

 

Still have to take shots, as McBeane proved with Josh, at QB.  

[SoTier]

58 minutes ago, JimmyNoodles said:

I couldn't read the aricle becasue of the paywall, but that premise is correct IMO.  The more swings you get in the draft, the better chances you have of getting a hit.  Early rounds (1-3) render better athletes, so it obvously makes a difference where your picks lie.  While I generally like Beane, I hate his draft philosophy of moving up to get "his guy."  It costs us swings at the bat to get young cheap talent.  Here are the early trade ups.  QB you have to move up for, but the rest are very debatable how well we did.    

 

In 2018 he moved up for a QB, which worked out because the Bills were lucky nobody selected Allen before us. Edmunds cost us a 3rd (we got back a 5th).

2019 sent a 5th for Cody Ford.  Gave up 2 4th rounders for Knox.

2020 trade for Diggs, sent a 1st, 5th, 6th, and a 2021 4th.  Got a 7th back  

2021 no trade up. 

2022 Elam cost a 4th

2023 Kincaid cost a 4th.       

 

The question about 2018 really is, would Beane have traded up to #7 if Allen was already gone?  Usually those first round trades are finalized when a team is on the clock ... so that the team trading up knows their guy is available.  I certainly hope that that was how Beane worked it to get Allen rather than just trading up to #7 on the hope that Allen would be available.

 

Trading up without being sure that the player you want will be available seems a pretty stupid move.

[BigAl2526]

I don't think it is a total crap shoot.  There is a significant element of chance in every round, but the level of chance increases as teams go deeper into the draft.  Still, there is no guarantee that even the first overall pick will be a successful player for the team that drafts him.

[JimmyNoodles]

27 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

The question about 2018 really is, would Beane have traded up to #7 if Allen was already gone?  Usually those first round trades are finalized when a team is on the clock ... so that the team trading up knows their guy is available.  I certainly hope that that was how Beane worked it to get Allen rather than just trading up to #7 on the hope that Allen would be available.

 

Trading up without being sure that the player you want will be available seems a pretty stupid move.

 We were lucky the Giants and Broncos both passed on QB's that year and no one else took Josh earlier, but you are right, we moved to 7 from 12 to get Josh.    

[Bill from NYC]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

 

It is interesting (to me at least) to think that kids getting real money in their pockets in college may help NFL teams by weeding out some of the knuckleheads.

Agreed and as I said, I would put some big money into investigasting these kids if I was a billionaire owner, complete with following them into bars, etc.

Edited April 16 by Bill from NYC

[bigduke6]

the teams are all throwing darts at a board with their eyes half shut.  its mainly what happens when the player gets with the team,  and how the team handles the player after that.   good organizations,  good coaching,  matters more.   all these guys are fast and big,  its about how theyre used and brought along.   for instance,  you wouldnt want to draft a CB whos only good at man to man,  if your defense plays zone 90% of the time.  teehee.

 

there is one caveat to this though,  if you know a guy is a one hit wonder,  or gives up on plays early,  etc,  doesnt matter how talented they are, probably going get half assed work out of them.  need to stay away from that like the plague.

[NORWOODS FOOT]

I haven’t read every post yet, but I’d like to see this broken down by:

 

1) who made the pick

2) round they mad it in

3 position they picked

 

I think if we are going to pay attention to trends we should see the variance between decision makers first. 
 

Polian vs Whaley for example: you wouldn’t just lump them together and draw a meaningful conclusion.

 

 

 

Edited April 16 by NORWOODS FOOT

[Mr. WEO]

11 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Probably a weird way to look at it but I believe the draft will get easier with NIL deals. These players will show who they are very early in college. 
 

 

 

 

how so?

[Beck Water]

4 hours ago, ROCBillsBeliever said:

 

I wouldn't say it was Marino's idea to lure away GB and Pitt's scouts; that's just my take. All I'm saying is people on here are very likely to freak out if we don't take a WR in the 1st, while other team have proven capable of taking good WR in the 2nd and later.

 

Piggybacking on that is that if other teams have gotten good results, why should our staff ignore that? 

 

Point on Pooka, of course. I was just mentioning two teams who have landed good WR outside of round one. 

 

And yes: I do think that paying attention to teams that draft a position we need is probably wise. 

 

Fair enough on that last.  I also agree on the point that teams can and do draft good WR who contribute heavily to their success in the 2nd and later.

But context is also important; my point is that considering Romeo Doubs as a better 2022 draft choice than Khalil Shakir may not be justified, given Shakir's 63 fewer yards on less than half the targets Doubs got.

 

I personally think you're overestimating the quality of GB's WR and under-crediting the quality of our 2 choices, Davis and Shakir, for the round in which they were drafted.

 

I also think the problem with the Bills drafting WR is that after muffing on Zay Jones in the 2017 2nd, we simply haven't invested the draft resources at the position.  Take KC, who look like they finally got a good 2nd round WR in Rashee Rice (if his culpable driving and legal troubles don't derail him).  They took 3 - 2nd round shots who are totally meh in Mecole Hardman (2019) Skyy Moore (2022) and now Rice, to get what looks like one legit guy.

 

I don't think our problem is necessarily scouting, but more

1) draft day shenanigans by Beane (trading away mid-round pick resources to move up in the 1st and 2nd or to trade for a player - we've been without a 4th 21,22,23 and we're without a 3rd in 24

2) allocation of resources - we haven't actually drafted a WR earlier than Rd 4 since 2017, before Beane officially arrived.  

In the 2nd round, we've drafted 2 OG, a RB, and 2 DE (and traded to move up).

In the 3rd round, we've drafted 2 RB, a TE, an OT, 2 LB, and a DT

 

I think it's possible that Beane and his FO might ID and draft good WR talent in the mid-rounds - but they haven't pulled the trigger.

 

Note that I'm not saying they were wrong to allocate resources as they have - I'm all about protecting Josh, for example.  But someone has to catch the ball.

 

 

 

 

 

[SoonerBillsFan]

4 hours ago, BillsVet said:

Drafting is more questionable when it involves players who are isolated on the field.  That is, the QBs, WR's, LT's, DE's, and perhaps in man CB's.  They are always in demand, frequently drafted high, and their translation from college to the pros is often more in doubt.  

 

The IOL, DT, LB, S, RB's, and perhaps TE's are a different matter, primarily because they typically aren't drafted high.  When they are, something is special about them to necessitate a RD1 pick which, I believe, makes them less of a risk.  The premium positions listed above get drafted high sometimes without that characteristic...but because they play a high-value position.

 

Nothing is absolute and no team is head and shoulders above the others though.  I recall @BADOLBILZ noting how the Bills during the drought weren't terrible drafting, but they used high picks on lesser positional value, had hits and few busts, but the end result was still those 4-7 win teams.  And during those years, their success at QB, WR, LT, DE was minimal.  And when they took a CB high who excelled, typically those guys lasted one contract and left in UFA like Clements and Gilmore.  

 

Still have to take shots, as McBeane proved with Josh, at QB.  

If Beane feels a guy is worth moving up for, AND the cost isn't too much then you can bet he will do it.

Edited April 17 by SoonerBillsFan

[4BillsintheBurgh]

3 hours ago, NORWOODS FOOT said:

I haven’t read every post yet, but I’d like to see this broken down by:

 

1) who made the pick

2) round they mad it in

3 position they picked

 

I think if we are going to pay attention to trends we should see the variance between decision makers first. 
 

Polian vs Whaley for example: you wouldn’t just lump them together and draw a meaningful conclusion.

 

 

 

You'd also have to consider the coaching staff dynamic as well. Here in Pittsburgh drafting changed when Cowher left and Tomlin came in.

[stinky finger]

14 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

I'm 100% accurate in my draft analysis. I hate every Bills pick

You are consistent. 

[amprov56]

More front office scout staffs need to consult more with the NFL brain trust found on TBD, they would go much further!

[blitzboy54]

23 hours ago, boyst said:

i need to read the article but my hot take is that when you look at the entire draft you can see and say this but if you look at individual programs you can surely see that some teams are better at it structurally than others. Especially at certain positions. Some teams just do extremely well at positional drafting.

 

Article covers this, using the Ravens as an example. It also points out they largely adopted the more is better philosophy and simply have more pics than everyone else therefore hit more often. 

[ROCBillsBeliever]

10 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

Fair enough on that last.  I also agree on the point that teams can and do draft good WR who contribute heavily to their success in the 2nd and later.

But context is also important; my point is that considering Romeo Doubs as a better 2022 draft choice than Khalil Shakir may not be justified, given Shakir's 63 fewer yards on less than half the targets Doubs got.

 

I personally think you're overestimating the quality of GB's WR and under-crediting the quality of our 2 choices, Davis and Shakir, for the round in which they were drafted.

 

I also think the problem with the Bills drafting WR is that after muffing on Zay Jones in the 2017 2nd, we simply haven't invested the draft resources at the position.  Take KC, who look like they finally got a good 2nd round WR in Rashee Rice (if his culpable driving and legal troubles don't derail him).  They took 3 - 2nd round shots who are totally meh in Mecole Hardman (2019) Skyy Moore (2022) and now Rice, to get what looks like one legit guy.

 

I don't think our problem is necessarily scouting, but more

1) draft day shenanigans by Beane (trading away mid-round pick resources to move up in the 1st and 2nd or to trade for a player - we've been without a 4th 21,22,23 and we're without a 3rd in 24

2) allocation of resources - we haven't actually drafted a WR earlier than Rd 4 since 2017, before Beane officially arrived.  

In the 2nd round, we've drafted 2 OG, a RB, and 2 DE (and traded to move up).

In the 3rd round, we've drafted 2 RB, a TE, an OT, 2 LB, and a DT

 

I think it's possible that Beane and his FO might ID and draft good WR talent in the mid-rounds - but they haven't pulled the trigger.

 

Note that I'm not saying they were wrong to allocate resources as they have - I'm all about protecting Josh, for example.  But someone has to catch the ball.

 

Oh, I wasn't saying that the Doubts pick was better than the Shakir one; I'm saying there are talented scouts out there, who play a hand in selecting good WR outside of the 1st round. I agree that McBeane have collectively "turtled", since the Zay Jones experiment, and their resource allocation choices haven't been what I would have hoped, either. 

 

My point is that it would be wise for Beane to identify those scouts picking productive WR outside of round one, and bring them into the fold. Not every single example is perfect, but I don't feel like we have been confident enough in our scouting of rounds 2-3 WR to pick one. Maybe it is just their overreaction to the Jones pick; us amateur speculators will never know. 

 

But if the following are true:

 

1. Beane has a lack of confidence in our scouting of 2nd-3rd round WR talent.

 

2. Some other teams seem to capably draft WR in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

 

Then, why would we not want to look to successful programs and talent identifiers / scouts?

 

That is my point.

[SoCal Deek]

In short, the ONLY draft pick that truly matters is for those teams looking for a starting quarterback. No other position even comes close. Thank goodness that isn’t us for a while….finally. So, stay in your draft slot and only move up or back a slot or two if you pretty much know a player you sort of like will or won’t be there because of what you know the teams directly in front of or behind you are going to do. 

[BillsVet]

11 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

If Beane feels a guy is worth moving up for, AND the cost isn't too much then you can bet he will do it.

 

That's not the point really, nor anything I'm doubting.  McBeane have proven time and again they'll use draft picks to move up, as they did with Kincaid and Elam in RD1 these last 2 years.

 

The issue is, people like to claim the draft is a total crap-shoot and that's surface-level analysis.  You can be a decent drafting team without prioritizing the riskier positions to draft and look OK or better.  You can get burned drafting the higher positions and be viewed not so good.

 

Drafting well is finding talent primarily at the harder to find positions because it more than likely shows up in W-L column.  I don't think the question to ask is whether the draft is a crap-shoot, which in this discussion is mostly RD1-2 picks.  It's more about are teams bold enough there to go after the premium positions to find elite talent.  When they do, they're more likely to win if they have decent personnel people.