DeVonta Smith - 3 yr $75M, $51M guaranteed - Does this kill any Bills trade talk for a star WR?

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, NoSaint said:

or you hope that your 50/50 guy works out and you don’t have to spend multiple picks instead of trading up for an 85/15 guy 

Even the 50-50 guys aren’t 50-50 to be homeruns. They are 50-50 to be Gabe Davis’

[Alphadawg7]

4 hours ago, FireChans said:

We are never going to suck bad enough to pick where the next Jamar Chase is going to go unless Josh gets hurt. 
 

So you either leverage your future or you don’t complain about not having elite weapons.

 

I don't complain.  We have better weapons than people think.  We have arguably the best TE room in the NFL with the combo of Kincaid and Knox, a dual threat RB in Cook who broke out last year, a young productive WR in his prime who has never had a real QB in Samuel, and a young WR who just led the NFL in catch rate, Yards per target, and efficiency in Shakir.  And I have no doubt we are going to add another high quality WR via the draft, possibly 2.   

 

The over exaggeration of how "bad" our weapons have been is comical around here.  There are teams who would kill for our roster of weapons last year.  For how "bad" our weapons have been, Josh by some miracle has managed for the last 4 years be an MVP finalist, average 5100 yards and 44 TDs, lead the 2nd highest scoring and 2nd highest winning team over those 4 years, and set the NFL record for most TD's in his first 5 seasons and continued that record to now be most TD's in first 6 seasons.  

 

Same QB who put up 9 TD's in 2 games to see his defense bounce him in the playoffs against KC.  Same QB who has watched his defense crumble all of the last 4 years in the playoffs.  

 

So while I agree, we are never going to suck bad enough to get a Chase (unless Allen gets hurt like Burrow did which allowed Cincy to get Chase), Chase and Higgins didn't win a SB either, and now that window is gone most likely with Higgins probably getting traded and cap issues making it hard to pay both now that Burrow is getting paid.  

 

Personally, with our current group and whatever Rookie(s) we add, I think Allen is going to have his best season to date.  

[Nephilim17]

1 hour ago, bigduke6 said:

Josh still in his prime,  team is about as good as its going to get.  now is the time.  you want a Super Bowl?  you need to win now.  do what it takes to grab one of the top 3 receivers in this coming draft, preferably Harrison Jr..  its going to cost a ton,  but it doesnt matter, you need a top young receiver on the cheap and its now or never.  every year Josh is getting older,  and injuries do happen,  more so when players start to age.  go for it.  

I was recently leaning towards taking who's there at 28 but your post reminded me Josh's prime is finite and perhaps half over.

That's a damn good argument to get him an elite receiver this draft and not take a bigger chance hoping Thomas or someone lower pans out.

But here's the thing:

EVERY MOVE HAS RISK.

If we take a rookie, there's a risk he busts or is merely average. That risk appears to be lower if we take a top-3 guy. But it's not guaranteed. Even Harrison could be merely very good and not great and thus not worth the capital expended.

If we sign/trade for a high-priced vet, there's a risk he doesn't perform as well or gets injured. And if he delivers, there's a risk he wants even more money and holds out. If a high-priced FA/traded player delivers, there is a risk associated with having less cap money to spend on other positions so we have to take a risk a lower-cost FA or a rookie will be high impact on the D line or at safety or wherever.

 

You can argue that you diversify the risk by having multiple good players instead of one player you hope will be elite.

There's no such thing as no risk but where do we want to mitigate that risk the most?

I don't have the answer but you're right in that we need to set up Allen for the second half of his prime — and that entails working with risk and how to mitigate that element. I have to hope Beane makes the right call here.

[Paup 1995MVP]

22 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Does it though?  As I have shown before, teams keep investing tons in WR's and haven't seen the payoff.  Look at arguably the best WR in the game in Hill...Miami can't even when their division with him and a 4 game lead late in the season with Waddle, Archane, and Mostert too.  Adams didn't do anything for Raiders.  Diggs didn't help the Bills do anything other than lose 3 straight years in the 2nd round.  Minnesota had both Diggs and Theilen and didn't get over the hump.  Dallas had both Cooper and Lamb and won less than we did.  Niners didn't get it done with both Aiyuk and Deebo, plus they had Kittle and CMC too.  

 

People always say this about WR, but we are not seeing this translate on the field like people assume it does.  

Exactly Alpha.  Good words spoken.  Devonta Smith is a good but certainly not dominant force every week in the NFL.  Look at how the Eagles season ended up.  They completely went in the tank and there was real talk about Siriani being canned.  Football is a team game.  Trading for some overhyped self proclaimed great WR who wants a ton of money is not how to build a team.  We should draft 2 maybe 3 WR's that can all run.  Let Josh show them how its done.  Look at the Packers receiving group last year.  All a bunch of young guys that can run.  Lets replicate that with our stud QB and excellent TE and RB, and we will be dynamite on offense.  Davis was a plodder and Diggs is pretty much washed.  Time to go young and cheap at the position.  Our salary cap has been a mess.  We need to draft some good players that can contribute right away.  Having the oldest safety duo in the league is over.  Time to change it up.  We don't need to be paying a WR $25+ million per unless it is Justin Jefferson.  NOONE else is worth that much period.  

[dma0034]

This is the reason why WRs don't cost a lot in a trade. Top 10/15 WRs are gonna run you 25+ which is roughly 10% of the total cap. If you have an elite QB that makes 50 million (and soon they'll be closer to 60) that means in a deadly QB/WR combo you've spent 30% of your cap on 2 of your 53 man team

[Cray51]

10 minutes ago, dma0034 said:

This is the reason why WRs don't cost a lot in a trade. Top 10/15 WRs are gonna run you 25+ which is roughly 10% of the total cap. If you have an elite QB that makes 50 million (and soon they'll be closer to 60) that means in a deadly QB/WR combo you've spent 30% of your cap on 2 of your 53 man team

Gives me more reason to give up a haul to go get a guy that can be a #1 and COST CONTROLLED for the next 5 years.  High end WR1 is not a 30M allocation.  Whereas I can draft a guy and pay him a third or fourth of that and use the other 20-22M on other positions.  Starting safety for 8, DT for 15... 

[bigduke6]

2 hours ago, Nephilim17 said:

I was recently leaning towards taking who's there at 28 but your post reminded me Josh's prime is finite and perhaps half over.

That's a damn good argument to get him an elite receiver this draft and not take a bigger chance hoping Thomas or someone lower pans out.

But here's the thing:

EVERY MOVE HAS RISK.

If we take a rookie, there's a risk he busts or is merely average. That risk appears to be lower if we take a top-3 guy. But it's not guaranteed. Even Harrison could be merely very good and not great and thus not worth the capital expended.

If we sign/trade for a high-priced vet, there's a risk he doesn't perform as well or gets injured. And if he delivers, there's a risk he wants even more money and holds out. If a high-priced FA/traded player delivers, there is a risk associated with having less cap money to spend on other positions so we have to take a risk a lower-cost FA or a rookie will be high impact on the D line or at safety or wherever.

 

You can argue that you diversify the risk by having multiple good players instead of one player you hope will be elite.

There's no such thing as no risk but where do we want to mitigate that risk the most?

I don't have the answer but you're right in that we need to set up Allen for the second half of his prime — and that entails working with risk and how to mitigate that element. I have to hope Beane makes the right call here.

yep agree,  theres always risk.  cant get away from it.    one of the reasons i want Harrison Jr over anybody else, not only is he a stud,  but he seems the lowest risk.

Edited April 16 by bigduke6

[DC Grid]

My takeaway from these huge new contracts for WRs is that the positional value has never been higher and therefore the need to use high draft picks on them has never been greater.  I think Beane trading for a top WR was always a pipe dream.  At best I could see him planing to add a rental star for as cheap as he can comp wise at the trading deadline if plan A to grab a couple of guys in the draft doesn’t work.  

[bigduke6]

2 hours ago, DC Grid said:

My takeaway from these huge new contracts for WRs is that the positional value has never been higher and therefore the need to use high draft picks on them has never been greater.  I think Beane trading for a top WR was always a pipe dream.  At best I could see him planing to add a rental star for as cheap as he can comp wise at the trading deadline if plan A to grab a couple of guys in the draft doesn’t work.  

theres always big name vets that get dropped and want to stay in the league on a vet or prove it deal,  or can be had for a low round pick heading into training camp.  might be the way Beane goes.

[3rdand12]

20 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

IMO, the D Smith contract does not kill hopes of trading for a star WR.  Beane will/should seek a deal.  Aiyuk may now be out of range but he was never a great deal IMO - Aiyuk was going to cost a bounty in draft capital and be a big cap cost.  WRs near the end of their deals looking for big money while the teams they are with are looking for draft capital are not attractive IMO -so just say no to the J Jeff/B Aiyuk and B Aiyuk.

 

To improve year over year what Beane/McD need is someone better than Diggs last year.  So a Dhop/DK Metcalf/C Godwin/D Adams/maybe C Sutton are all in play.  These are all WR's that might be had by trading a reasonable draft pick and picking up a veteran with a reasonable salary.

 

I'm hoping the FO replaces Diggs with one of these type of vet options.  I'm hoping they replace G Davis with the draft, no need to move up- maybe even move down and get a McConkey/Coleman/Franklin/Legette.

Justin Jefferson and be done with it. Why pussyfoot around here

 lol

 

[3rdand12]

17 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

So Allen, who averages 5100 yards and 44 TDs for the past 4 years isn’t good enough and needs the best receiver group in the league?  Then why have lesser QBs won Super Bowls without having a receiver as good as Diggs?  
 

Allen has the most TDs in NFL history…but somehow he must have the best WR group in the league to get a SB?

 

We are also 2nd in wins and 2nd in scoring over those 4 years.  But we supposedly can’t win a SB without have 2 top WR1 level receivers according to a lot of people here, and that makes no sense.  
 

I mean, look at our last 4 playoff exits…

 

2020 - We lost to KC as we were the lesser overall team.

2021 - We had a WR put up over 200 yards and 4 TDs and lost because our defense gave up 17 points in final couple minutes and OT.  
2022 - Cincy dominated us in trenches on both sides of the ball and Brady couldn’t get a run game going in bad weather.

2023 - We lost because we had no LBs, and the ghost of Kelce and Mahomes attacked our LBs all game and we couldn’t get Mahomes dirty.  
 

Everyone wants as many great WRs we can get…myself included.  But neglecting the roster to go all in on WRs for a team with a huge QB contract and cap issues is a big risk as it leaves you thin elsewhere.  
 

So giving up a bunch of picks and paying Aiyuk means we are weaker elsewhere.  Not to mention, we are an outdoor bad weather stadium where the first thing impacted is passing game.  And this team was already not good enough with Diggs to get there with guys like Tre, Poyer, Hyde, Morse, Davis, etc. who are also all gone.  
 

So stick to the draft and get that cap relief and pair Allen with someone for Allen’s prime while they are on a rookie contract.  Dont compound the issue and give up valuable picks and then go pay the guy $28m.  Because if you do, then you must hit on the majority of your remaining draft picks (very hard to do).

 

 

You are going to die on this hill aren't you. (luv ya Alpha )

 yea complete team. yea we lost cuz of defense ( i suggest injuries were a major factor )
But Allen could put up plenty more points and got well ahead in the first half of games with a game changer at WR.

 The others like Samuel Shakir and Kincaid and Cook will fill the gaps when needed.

If you take over the game early on Offense the whole second half changes. Adjustments and coaching what ya brung

But for sure lift the whole boat , its just how we all  perceive doing just that 😋

 

7 hours ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

I want 2.

 

One is not going to cut it.  Absolutely on board as long as they get two.

 

And when I say "two" I don't man round 1 and then round 7.

 

Get two, meaty good ones that are reasonably not speculative by comparison...both third round or sooner.  

 

Great minds 😉

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, 3rdand12 said:

You are going to die on this hill aren't you. (luv ya Alpha )

 yea complete team. yea we lost cuz of defense ( i suggest injuries were a major factor )
But Allen could put up plenty more points and got well ahead in the first half of games with a game changer at WR.

 The others like Samuel Shakir and Kincaid and Cook will fill the gaps when needed.

If you take over the game early on Offense the whole second half changes. Adjustments and coaching what ya brung

But for sure lift the whole boat , its just how we all  perceive doing just that 😋

 

Great minds 😉

 

Hahaha all good and all luv brother!  And I don't know that I would say I am gonna die on this hill haha, but I definitely don't want to over compensate either.  

 

I think you are very much underestimating the Bills young core right now.  Cook is a dual threat, he is more than someone to fill gaps.  We have arguably the best TE room in the league right now having both Kincaid and Knox.  If all the teams lined up and drafted only TE's across the NFL, I guarantee you Kincaid would be picked top 3 by most GMs...some would take him higher than that.  Shakir just led all WR's in catch rate, yards per target, and efficiency.  Samuel is in his prime at 27 and finally playing with a real QB for the first time in his career after already being a pretty productive player who had his best year under Brady in Carolina.   

 

Now, Kincaid is entering year 2...Shakir year 3 (that fabled year where WR's often take another step forward)...and Cook year 3 now fully entrenched as the lead back and an OC committed to get him the ball on the ground and through the air.  

 

That is a pretty exciting young core...I wouldn't refer to them as "gap fillers", this is going to be a spread the ball around offense and all of those guys will play heavy roles this year along with what ever Rookie we take early.  Now what rookie is the question...personally I think it seems to be trending towards Troy Franklin right now, but I still am hoping for Brian Thomas.  Although I would be stoked about Franklin still, just hoping its Thomas.  My real draft crush is Odunze, but I am skeptical Beane will go up that high to get him unless he falls into the mid first range, but I seriously doubt that happens. I think its more likely the big 3 all go top 10.

Edited April 17 by Alphadawg7

[BillMafia716ix]

They about to start treating the WR position like RB pretty soon. Why spend big money on WR’s when you already have an alpha at QB. I could see more teams in future refusing to pay top money for a WR when you can draft guys that can produce at more than half the cost. 

[Chicken Boo]

9 hours ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

Exactly Alpha.  Good words spoken.  Devonta Smith is a good but certainly not dominant force every week in the NFL.  Look at how the Eagles season ended up.  They completely went in the tank and there was real talk about Siriani being canned.  Football is a team game.  Trading for some overhyped self proclaimed great WR who wants a ton of money is not how to build a team.  We should draft 2 maybe 3 WR's that can all run.  Let Josh show them how its done.  Look at the Packers receiving group last year.  All a bunch of young guys that can run.  Lets replicate that with our stud QB and excellent TE and RB, and we will be dynamite on offense.  Davis was a plodder and Diggs is pretty much washed.  Time to go young and cheap at the position.  Our salary cap has been a mess.  We need to draft some good players that can contribute right away.  Having the oldest safety duo in the league is over.  Time to change it up.  We don't need to be paying a WR $25+ million per unless it is Justin Jefferson.  NOONE else is worth that much period.  

 

I'd bet my house (not really, but I'm confident) Beane has kicked the tires on Jefferson.  

 

Just a gut feeling.  

[3rdand12]

22 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Hahaha all good and all luv brother!  And I don't know that I would say I am gonna die on this hill haha, but I definitely don't want to over compensate either.  

 

I think you are very much underestimating the Bills young core right now.  Cook is a dual threat, he is more than someone to fill gaps.  We have arguably the best TE room in the league right now having both Kincaid and Knox.  If all the teams lined up and drafted only TE's across the NFL, I guarantee you Kincaid would be picked top 3 by most GMs...some would take him higher than that.  Shakir just led all WR's in catch rate, yards per target, and efficiency.  Samuel is in his prime at 27 and finally playing with a real QB for the first time in his career after already being a pretty productive player who had his best year under Brady in Carolina.   

 

Now, Kincaid is entering year 2...Shakir year 3 (that fabled year where WR's often take another step forward)...and Cook year 3 now fully entrenched as the lead back and an OC committed to get him the ball on the ground and through the air.  

 

That is a pretty exciting young core...I wouldn't refer to them as "gap fillers", this is going to be a spread the ball around offense and all of those guys will play heavy roles this year along with what ever Rookie we take early.  Now what rookie is the question...personally I think it seems to be trending towards Troy Franklin right now, but I still am hoping for Brian Thomas.  Although I would be stoked about Franklin still, just hoping its Thomas.  My real draft crush is Odunze, but I am skeptical Beane will go up that high to get him unless he falls into the mid first range, but I seriously doubt that happens. I think its more likely the big 3 all go top 10.

Oh dear , I do have faith.
Kincaid might be McBeanes best draft pick ever , over time and show up big next year if Brady has some say in it

 

Shakir, Have no doubt about him either.  Came along nicely and solid. Josh will trust him and he will oblige !

Going to bring a lot of route options.

 

Cook yea  no question

 

 Even Ty is an option back.
 

Samuel is our unknown but dang ya gotta think he looks good to show this year in Bills offense.
 

But that doesnt change my thinking

Diggs long term Replacement ? Might be found this year if choosing wisely and a little manipulation of draft picks with out getting crazy (okay maybe a little carzy ) but not MHj crazy

and that dang rotational x receiver who just blows by everyone and hopefully Josh hist him in stride once or twice a game 

 Too much ?

 

But yea  I got faith again 😇