DeVonta Smith - 3 yr $75M, $51M guaranteed - Does this kill any Bills trade talk for a star WR?

[Bill from NYC]

5 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Eagles have 2 WR1s. Dolphins will have to do this also. I don’t think SF will.

Believe me, Waddle is about to get paid huge money.

[boyst]

5 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

And Hurt's cap hit the next 2 seasons:

 

2024- $13,558,800

2025- $21,769,800

 

Even in 2026 it's a low hit for a QB:

 

2026- $31,771,800

Hurts is the 2020's Ryan tannehill

[PauleeeWalnuts]

5 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

DeVonta Smith got his bag today, and $25m/per is no small number.  I would think Aiyuk will command more than this, and I know a lot of people have been thinking Bills could trade for him, make some crazy offer for Jefferson, or even Higgins (no thanks).  

 

I have a hard time seeing Beane see this kind of money going out for a WR2 and thinking its a good idea to trade for a WR1 likely to cost more than this.  I won't rule it out, Beane has shown to be aggressive when he wants a player, but I would think this pushes Aiyuk contract demands up even more and I am gonna guess Jefferson might end up the first WR over $30M (Hill being the first to hit $30M).   

 

We are staring at a historically great WR draft, so is Beane going to focus there (maybe he already was) or would he still pull the trigger knowing he is gonna have to pay one north of $25M per?  My gut says draft, we are in a different cap situation then when we traded for Diggs and Allen was on his rookie deal still, so hard to see him want to take on that much cap with a WR draft this strong in front of him.  But never know...

 

 

 

Bills are in a soft rebuild, they’re not adding top talent. Trading Diggs makes it evident they’re going to try and do more with less. No way they’re eating his $31 million in dead cap money only to add big dollars on top of it. 

[Orlando Buffalo]

With the way I think we are going to run our offense going forward I definitely would prefer 3 separate 10 million guys then one 30 million player. Josh makes this offense run, not the receivers and giving him plenty of good options is preferable to me vs one stud and 3 jags. I also think there is 99% chance we go WR at least once in the first two rounds. 

[3rdand12]

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

Yes it was a second for Hardman and a third and 6th for Toney. 
 

That’s why I keep asking @Alphadawg7 what strategy he thinks works. The only fool-proof strategy to be a consistent SB winner is to acquire the greatest QB of the generation and pair him with one of the greatest coaches of the generation. Then it doesn’t matter what you do.

 

Nothing else works.

I wanted to comment

its Coaching.

Let them find what the needs are for their team and solve it.

IMHO Allen needs a new 1A from the draft and a speedy x.

They have a nice O line now and TEs, running backs in Cook and Ty who get the work done

Bills dont , and haven't had the receivers to accentuate Josh's skill set .

 Hoping he and Brady get some fresh meat to cook with   ie Draft

18 minutes ago, PauleeeWalnuts said:

Bills are in a soft rebuild, they’re not adding top talent. Trading Diggs makes it evident they’re going to try and do more with less. No way they’re eating his $31 million in dead cap money only to add big dollars on top of it. 

So drafting WR early and more than once  eh ?   

[Einstein's Dog]

IMO, the D Smith contract does not kill hopes of trading for a star WR.  Beane will/should seek a deal.  Aiyuk may now be out of range but he was never a great deal IMO - Aiyuk was going to cost a bounty in draft capital and be a big cap cost.  WRs near the end of their deals looking for big money while the teams they are with are looking for draft capital are not attractive IMO -so just say no to the J Jeff/B Aiyuk and B Aiyuk.

 

To improve year over year what Beane/McD need is someone better than Diggs last year.  So a Dhop/DK Metcalf/C Godwin/D Adams/maybe C Sutton are all in play.  These are all WR's that might be had by trading a reasonable draft pick and picking up a veteran with a reasonable salary.

 

I'm hoping the FO replaces Diggs with one of these type of vet options.  I'm hoping they replace G Davis with the draft, no need to move up- maybe even move down and get a McConkey/Coleman/Franklin/Legette.

[90sBills]

1 hour ago, Orlando Tim said:

With the way I think we are going to run our offense going forward I definitely would prefer 3 separate 10 million guys then one 30 million player. Josh makes this offense run, not the receivers and giving him plenty of good options is preferable to me vs one stud and 3 jags. I also think there is 99% chance we go WR at least once in the first two rounds. 

MVS is still out there. 2 times Superbowl champ. He’ll probably be motivated to play against KC. 

[Alphadawg7]

7 hours ago, 90sBills said:

It was 2nd for Hardman not Toney but your point remains. I think it worked for NE during their run and it’s working now with KC because they had/have QBs that were/are relentless at being the best and could squeeze more from mediocre guys than most could.

 

For the Bills I agree that we have to surround Allen with as much talent as possible. Diggs was a top 5 wr and it was still not enough. So we’d need two of those types of guys. It’s better to hit them in the draft than overpay in free agency so there could be resources for other areas. I don’t think it’s feasible to chase top wr free agents by overpaying.

So Allen, who averages 5100 yards and 44 TDs for the past 4 years isn’t good enough and needs the best receiver group in the league?  Then why have lesser QBs won Super Bowls without having a receiver as good as Diggs?  
 

Allen has the most TDs in NFL history…but somehow he must have the best WR group in the league to get a SB?

 

We are also 2nd in wins and 2nd in scoring over those 4 years.  But we supposedly can’t win a SB without have 2 top WR1 level receivers according to a lot of people here, and that makes no sense.  
 

I mean, look at our last 4 playoff exits…

 

2020 - We lost to KC as we were the lesser overall team.

2021 - We had a WR put up over 200 yards and 4 TDs and lost because our defense gave up 17 points in final couple minutes and OT.  
2022 - Cincy dominated us in trenches on both sides of the ball and Brady couldn’t get a run game going in bad weather.

2023 - We lost because we had no LBs, and the ghost of Kelce and Mahomes attacked our LBs all game and we couldn’t get Mahomes dirty.  
 

Everyone wants as many great WRs we can get…myself included.  But neglecting the roster to go all in on WRs for a team with a huge QB contract and cap issues is a big risk as it leaves you thin elsewhere.  
 

So giving up a bunch of picks and paying Aiyuk means we are weaker elsewhere.  Not to mention, we are an outdoor bad weather stadium where the first thing impacted is passing game.  And this team was already not good enough with Diggs to get there with guys like Tre, Poyer, Hyde, Morse, Davis, etc. who are also all gone.  
 

So stick to the draft and get that cap relief and pair Allen with someone for Allen’s prime while they are on a rookie contract.  Dont compound the issue and give up valuable picks and then go pay the guy $28m.  Because if you do, then you must hit on the majority of your remaining draft picks (very hard to do).

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

7 hours ago, FireChans said:

We don’t have a ton of assets unfortunately. So I do agree with you.

 

I would much rather have 2 cost controlled WR’s at this stage of our team. But that’s really just because it’s the reality of the 2024 Bills. Ideally, I would take a WR high and get an Aiyuk if I could. 

 

But the facts of the matter are clear. The Eagles used a top 10 pick on Smith, and traded a first for Brown and signed him to big money. They went from a fringe playoff team to a SB team.

 

The Bengals used a top 10 pick on Chase, and pick 33 on Tee Higgins. They went from the worst team in football to a SB team.

 

The 49ers remained an SB team by spending a first round pick on WR, and giving Deebo and Kittle and CMC big money. All without a great QB. 
 

The Rams paid big money to Kupp, Gave Woods a decent sized contract, traded a second for Watkins, traded a first for Cooks, and brought in OBJ for a run. They went to two Super Bowls and won 1.

 

The Bucs invested a lot in their group of Evans, Godwin, etc etc for their SB.

 

 

really, the only team to go to with a horrific receiving target group was the Chiefs. And much like the old Patriots, it’s hard to replicate their strategy because they win even when their strategy sucks. And they didn’t even not invest, they just had crappy investments. 2nd for Toney, 2nd for Skyy Moore, 2nd for Rice. 

 

Surround your great QB with talent so he can be great in the biggest moments is obviously the way.  We have the QB. It’s time to invest in the talent around him.

Keep in mind, I have not once said it’s bad to acquire WR talent…I said it had not paid off to heavily over leverage and invest to where you take away from your team.  So people keep bringing up Bengals for example who drafted Higgins and then because Burrow missed his rookie year had Chase fall in their lap. 
 

What I’m against is over leveraging assets to WR at a detriment of other potions on the roster by spending important draft capital and cap space.  
 

While I don’t think we have to mortgage our future for MHJ, Nabers, or Odunze because this class is so strong, I would still much rather go get one of them and avoid paying a WR $28M for the next 3-4 years.  
 

 

Edited April 16 by Alphadawg7

[FireChans]

7 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Keep in mind, I have not once said it’s bad to acquire WR talent…I said it had not paid off to heavily over leverage and invest to where you take away from your team.  So people keep bringing up Bengals for example who drafted Higgins and then because Burrow missed his rookie year had Chase fall in their lap. 
 

What I’m against is over leveraging assets to WR at a detriment of other potions on the roster by spending important draft capital and cap space.  
 

While I don’t think we have to mortgage our future for MHJ, Nabers, or Odunze because this class is so strong, I would still much rather go get one of them and avoid paying a WR $28M for the next 3-4 years.  
 

 

We are never going to suck bad enough to pick where the next Jamar Chase is going to go unless Josh gets hurt. 
 

So you either leverage your future or you don’t complain about not having elite weapons.

Edited April 16 by FireChans

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

17 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

And Hurt's cap hit the next 2 seasons:

 

2024- $13,558,800

2025- $21,769,800

 

Even in 2026 it's a low hit for a QB:

 

2026- $31,771,800

 

I don't think the Smith extension even starts right away either as he had a 5th year option for 2025.  More just making sure to put the number in the books now so you know what it is for later, and to prevent drama/holdouts.  

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/philadelphia-eagles/yearly/cap/

I enjoy cap financials, but this is very confusing. They structure their contracts with option bonuses that automatically add void years.  

[mannc]

12 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

IMO, the D Smith contract does not kill hopes of trading for a star WR.  Beane will/should seek a deal.  Aiyuk may now be out of range but he was never a great deal IMO - Aiyuk was going to cost a bounty in draft capital and be a big cap cost.  WRs near the end of their deals looking for big money while the teams they are with are looking for draft capital are not attractive IMO -so just say no to the J Jeff/B Aiyuk and B Aiyuk.

 

To improve year over year what Beane/McD need is someone better than Diggs last year.  So a Dhop/DK Metcalf/C Godwin/D Adams/maybe C Sutton are all in play.  These are all WR's that might be had by trading a reasonable draft pick and picking up a veteran with a reasonable salary.

 

I'm hoping the FO replaces Diggs with one of these type of vet options.  I'm hoping they replace G Davis with the draft, no need to move up- maybe even move down and get a McConkey/Coleman/Franklin/Legette.

I think Aiyuk can be had for a second round pick…I don’t think the Niners can keep him and they’re going to realize sooner or later that it’s better to get something for him now than nothing later.  

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

I don't think the Smith extension even starts right away either as he had a 5th year option for 2025

Usually they extensions include that year and bring down their cap hit. 
 

It’s why Jerry Jeudy appeared to get so much GTD money in his extension, because this season for him was already fully GTD.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

We are never going to suck bad enough to pick where the next Jamar Chase is going to go unless Josh gets hurt. 
 

So you either leverage your future or you don’t complain about not having elite weapons.

 

Last time there was a historically deep WR class we acquired Diggs.  6 WRs went in the first - 

 

Ruggs - Bust for off-field

Jeudy - Not a full-on bust, but not nearly the impact of others in this class

Lamb - All-pro

Raegor - Bust

Jefferson - All-pro

Aiyuk - 2nd team all-pro last year, and has grown into a great player

 

Next 2 off board were Higgins and Pitman.  Both very good players.  Best of the rest was probably Mooney and Gabe Davis.  

 

Any number of reasons can be why a player doesn't hit though.  Ruggs made very bad choices, and his career is done.  Claypool doesn't want to put in the effort to become a good player.  Hamler just kept getting injured - and has a heart condition. 

4 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Usually they extensions include that year and bring down their cap hit. 
 

It’s why Jerry Jeudy appeared to get so much GTD money in his extension, because this season for him was already fully GTD.

 

Yeah, makes sense.  Take the 5th year option, convert it to a bonus and spread it over the term (plus void years). 

[Mango]

19 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

And Hurt's cap hit the next 2 seasons:

 

2024- $13,558,800

2025- $21,769,800

 

Even in 2026 it's a low hit for a QB:

 

2026- $31,771,800

 

I am not a believer in Jalen Hurts yet. He hasn't shown me to be a good enough passer to make up for his cap number once it starts coming into play. 


 

[FireChans]

13 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Last time there was a historically deep WR class we acquired Diggs.  6 WRs went in the first - 

 

Ruggs - Bust for off-field

Jeudy - Not a full-on bust, but not nearly the impact of others in this class

Lamb - All-pro

Raegor - Bust

Jefferson - All-pro

Aiyuk - 2nd team all-pro last year, and has grown into a great player

 

Next 2 off board were Higgins and Pitman.  Both very good players.  Best of the rest was probably Mooney and Gabe Davis.  

 

Any number of reasons can be why a player doesn't hit though.  Ruggs made very bad choices, and his career is done.  Claypool doesn't want to put in the effort to become a good player.  Hamler just kept getting injured - and has a heart condition. 

 

Yeah, makes sense.  Take the 5th year option, convert it to a bonus and spread it over the term (plus void years). 

FWIW, I believe the top 3 in this class are universally rated higher than in the 2020 class. 
 

I guess that’s my point though. We traded our first for Diggs because we didn’t think there was a sure thing at pick 22. That had its own version of risk because we had to take on more money to pay Diggs, even though he had a much higher floor as an established pro. 
 

There is no risk free avenue in the NFL. Trading multiple picks to get an all time prospect is a risk. Trading a pick for an established vet who needs to get paid is a risk. Trading away a pick to punt on a QB selection is a risk. Trading into the top 10 for a QB is a risk. 

[90sBills]

9 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

So Allen, who averages 5100 yards and 44 TDs for the past 4 years isn’t good enough and needs the best receiver group in the league?  Then why have lesser QBs won Super Bowls without having a receiver as good as Diggs?  
 

Allen has the most TDs in NFL history…but somehow he must have the best WR group in the league to get a SB?

 

We are also 2nd in wins and 2nd in scoring over those 4 years.  But we supposedly can’t win a SB without have 2 top WR1 level receivers according to a lot of people here, and that makes no sense.  
 

I mean, look at our last 4 playoff exits…

 

2020 - We lost to KC as we were the lesser overall team.

2021 - We had a WR put up over 200 yards and 4 TDs and lost because our defense gave up 17 points in final couple minutes and OT.  
2022 - Cincy dominated us in trenches on both sides of the ball and Brady couldn’t get a run game going in bad weather.

2023 - We lost because we had no LBs, and the ghost of Kelce and Mahomes attacked our LBs all game and we couldn’t get Mahomes dirty.  
 

Everyone wants as many great WRs we can get…myself included.  But neglecting the roster to go all in on WRs for a team with a huge QB contract and cap issues is a big risk as it leaves you thin elsewhere.  
 

So giving up a bunch of picks and paying Aiyuk means we are weaker elsewhere.  Not to mention, we are an outdoor bad weather stadium where the first thing impacted is passing game.  And this team was already not good enough with Diggs to get there with guys like Tre, Poyer, Hyde, Morse, Davis, etc. who are also all gone.  
 

So stick to the draft and get that cap relief and pair Allen with someone for Allen’s prime while they are on a rookie contract.  Dont compound the issue and give up valuable picks and then go pay the guy $28m.  Because if you do, then you must hit on the majority of your remaining draft picks (very hard to do).

 

 

Since Allen has become a starter the only QB that won Superbowls without elite receivers is Mahomes. Even Mahomes won his first with Hill and Watkins. 
 

Pump up all the stats you want but you won’t find the one that matters. Superbowl wins. Diggs was a top 5 receiver for most of his time in Buffalo and how many fans still complained about Davis not doing enough? Allen needs 2 exceptional wideouts.

 

I agree with you about drafting talent vs overpaying for free agent receivers. We tried that with Diggs and are now in cap problems. Not sure why you’re addressing that with me. 

 

Oh and Allen does not have the most TD in the history of the NFL. You might want to recheck that. There’s a guy that didn’t even start his rookie year that has more. He’s also standing in the Bills way of where they want to be. So let’s get Allen more weapons so he can get pass Mahomes!

[dollars 2 donuts]

On 4/15/2024 at 3:20 PM, Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD said:

I don't think it makes any sense to trade for a star receiver considering we can't pay them without getting into cap hell. 

 

I'd rather use the draft picks we have to take a chance on a top wr in the 1st and have them under contract for up to 5 years for a low cap hit.

 

 

I want 2.

 

One is not going to cut it.  Absolutely on board as long as they get two.

 

And when I say "two" I don't mean round 1 and then round 7.

 

Get two, meaty good ones that are reasonably not speculative by comparison...both third round or sooner.  

 

Edited April 16 by dollars 2 donuts

[bigduke6]

Josh still in his prime,  team is about as good as its going to get.  now is the time.  you want a Super Bowl?  you need to win now.  do what it takes to grab one of the top 3 receivers in this coming draft, preferably Harrison Jr..  its going to cost a ton,  but it doesnt matter, you need a top young receiver on the cheap and its now or never.  every year Josh is getting older,  and injuries do happen,  more so when players start to age.  go for it.  

[NoSaint]

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

We are never going to suck bad enough to pick where the next Jamar Chase is going to go unless Josh gets hurt. 
 

So you either leverage your future or you don’t complain about not having elite weapons.

or you hope that your 50/50 guy works out and you don’t have to spend multiple picks instead of trading up for an 85/15 guy