DeVonta Smith - 3 yr $75M, $51M guaranteed - Does this kill any Bills trade talk for a star WR?

[nedboy7]

36 minutes ago, FireChans said:

We don’t have a ton of assets unfortunately. So I do agree with you.

 

I would much rather have 2 cost controlled WR’s at this stage of our team. But that’s really just because it’s the reality of the 2024 Bills. Ideally, I would take a WR high and get an Aiyuk if I could. 

 

But the facts of the matter are clear. The Eagles used a top 10 pick on Smith, and traded a first for Brown and signed him to big money. They went from a fringe playoff team to a SB team.

 

The Bengals used a top 10 pick on Chase, and pick 33 on Tee Higgins. They went from the worst team in football to a SB team.

 

The 49ers remained an SB team by spending a first round pick on WR, and giving Deebo and Kittle and CMC big money. All without a great QB. 
 

The Rams paid big money to Kupp, Gave Woods a decent sized contract, traded a second for Watkins, traded a first for Cooks, and brought in OBJ for a run. They went to two Super Bowls and won 1.

 

The Bucs invested a lot in their group of Evans, Godwin, etc etc for their SB.

 

 

really, the only team to go to with a horrific receiving target group was the Chiefs. And much like the old Patriots, it’s hard to replicate their strategy because they win even when their strategy sucks. And they didn’t even not invest, they just had crappy investments. 2nd for Toney, 2nd for Skyy Moore, 2nd for Rice. 

 

Surround your great QB with talent so he can be great in the biggest moments is obviously the way.  We have the QB. It’s time to invest in the talent around him.

 

Doesn't your post in a way contradict your conclusion?  Not that I don't agree with you.  By TBD logic becoming a SB team but losing is the equivalent of a choking pile of dung. 

[Maynard]

3 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

Not only will the price tag of a Aiyuk, JJ, Higgins be alot, but the draft capital as well.  We're likely talking a future 1st rounder at minimum.

 

If we're going to drop a future 1st, I'd rather do what it takes to move up for 1 one of the top 3 in this years draft.

 

I could see Beane wanting to get that "stud" prospect OR building our WR group like the GB model (young collective unit, but no #1).

 

Either way, I don't see us trading for a premier WR

I think the GB model might actually be the way to go about it.

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

Yes. Bills have zero cap space this year anyways.

 

Beane is going to have to hit it in the draft

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, nedboy7 said:

 

Doesn't your post in a way contradict your conclusion?  Not that I don't agree with you.  By TBD logic becoming a SB team but losing is the equivalent of a choking pile of dung. 

No.

 

All of those teams had to win multiple playoff games to get to the SB. We haven’t won multiple playoff games since the Raiders were in Oakland.

 

You can’t win a SB unless you get there. I’ll take our chances if we get there.

Also, the Buccaneers and Rams did win. 49ers and Eagles were a play away from winning with far worse QB’s.

 

the only other strategy available to us is trade Allen/McD and 10 first round picks for Reid and Mahomes straight up.

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

 

The Hurts deal shows how a team with an owner willing to consistently spend cash can gain a competitive advantage. The Browns are doing the same thing. Those teams rank 3rd and 1st in cash spend this season at $282.2M and $337.3M. The Eagles figure does not include the Smith deal so it’ll go higher. The Bills are 23rd at $214.0M. Link

 

With all due respect, that doesn't entirely make sense to me.  By "cash spend" are you talking about "new cash"?

 

Because all cap dollars were cash spend at some point - whether new cash, or a large cash payment up front that was amortized over all contract years.

 

With regard to the Hurts deal, the cash spend this season is meagre, with a mere $13.5M dead cap hit but Hurts currently carries $120M dead cap hit.

[Mr. WEO]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Does it though?  As I have shown before, teams keep investing tons in WR's and haven't seen the payoff.  Look at arguably the best WR in the game in Hill...Miami can't even when their division with him and a 4 game lead late in the season with Waddle, Archane, and Mostert too.  Adams didn't do anything for Raiders.  Diggs didn't help the Bills do anything other than lose 3 straight years in the 2nd round.  Minnesota had both Diggs and Theilen and didn't get over the hump.  Dallas had both Cooper and Lamb and won less than we did.  Niners didn't get it done with both Aiyuk and Deebo, plus they had Kittle and CMC too.  

 

People always say this about WR, but we are not seeing this translate on the field like people assume it does.  

 

good point.  Bills should just pocket the money, bring back Smokey Brown and Bease and make Tee times for the 3rd week of January.

[Beck Water]

I voted "no", not because I think Beane is looking to trade for a star WR, but because I think Beane knew he couldn't trade for a star WR before this deal and this deal doesn't change anything.

[nedboy7]

42 minutes ago, FireChans said:

No.

 

All of those teams had to win multiple playoff games to get to the SB. We haven’t won multiple playoff games since the Raiders were in Oakland.

 

You can’t win a SB unless you get there. I’ll take our chances if we get there.

Also, the Buccaneers and Rams did win. 49ers and Eagles were a play away from winning with far worse QB’s.

 

the only other strategy available to us is trade Allen/McD and 10 first round picks for Reid and Mahomes straight up.

 

Would you trade our coach and QB for any other tandem in the league? 

[NoSaint]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Huh?  Miami's QB was an MVP candidate and still couldn't win the division with both Hill and Waddle and a 4 game lead last in the season.  Eagles had their MVP candidate QB too and didn't get the job done yet with both AJ Brown and Smith.  Cincy has Burrow and didn't get the job done with both Chase and Higgins.  Dallas has Dak who has been one of the most prolific passers statistically in the NFL who had Cooper and Lamb.  

 

So...yeah...your counter point makes no sense considering Dallas, SF, Mia, and Phi all had QB's who have been MVP candidates.  Chargers had Allen and Williams with Herbert and can't even make the playoffs.  

at this point all I think you’ve proven is the chiefs beat everyone and we should all quit watching? 
 

or are you advocating that we spend a series of day two picks and large but second tier contracts on guys that actively lose games as the recipe in the wr room?

26 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

I voted "no", not because I think Beane is looking to trade for a star WR, but because I think Beane knew he couldn't trade for a star WR before this deal and this deal doesn't change anything.

it’s odd for anyone to pretend beane didn’t roughly understand the market last week and this would make him change course. 

[BarleyNY]

27 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

With all due respect, that doesn't entirely make sense to me.  By "cash spend" are you talking about "new cash"?

 

Because all cap dollars were cash spend at some point - whether new cash, or a large cash payment up front that was amortized over all contract years.

 

With regard to the Hurts deal, the cash spend this season is meagre, with a mere $13.5M dead cap hit but Hurts currently carries $120M dead cap hit.

 

Yes. Actual cash out the door. By aggressively structuring (and re-structuring) contracts teams like Philadelphia are able to outspend the majority of teams. It is sustainable as long as there is not another Covid style event that causes a cap decrease.

 

Teams still have to sign the correct players to the large deals. Hurts has a huge dead cap and is uncuttable, but Allen is as well. It’s the same for any highly paid player on a long term deal.

 

Many teams will want to be more conservative due to a variety of reasons. A big one is that most owners don’t want to spend that much. Another is the inherent risks involved. Teams still have to draft and coach well - and make good decisions overall - but for some teams this is a big advantage. It’s how a team like Cleveland can still make the playoffs on their 4th string QB and how Philly is staying near the top of the league. 

[RyanC883]

WR's ask too much cap wise.  This is a reason to double dip at the position in the draft.  Set ourselves up for the next 4-5 years, and spend cap money on proven edge rushers and DTs, and OL if needed.  (plus keeping our guys) 

[stinky finger]

3 hours ago, Blackbeard said:

Move up and draft a known, will-be #1.    

 

Rookie deal.

 

movin' on up.. movin' on up.. to the top..  to the top..  

 

 

Your plan makes me a bit....Weezie.

[FireChans]

35 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

 

Would you trade our coach and QB for any other tandem in the league? 

No

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Yes it was a second for Hardman and a third and 6th for Toney. 
 

That’s why I keep asking @Alphadawg7 what strategy he thinks works. The only fool-proof strategy to be a consistent SB winner is to acquire the greatest QB of the generation and pair him with one of the greatest coaches of the generation. Then it doesn’t matter what you do.

 

Nothing else works.

 

 

Yeah the reality when you have a Josh Allen type instead of a Brady/Mahomes(whose primary purpose in life is to win 7-8 SB's) is that you gotta' build like you are trying to beat THE REST of the league and hope that the tournament falls in your favor.  

 

That's how the Rams got their SB win 3 years ago.   That's how the Steelers made 3 trips to the SB and won 2 during the Brady era even though the Patriots OWNED Cowher/Roethlisberger/Tomlin in the playoffs.

 

All the more reason to stack high end receiving talent around Allen and try to give him the longest career possible so that he can continue his passive training approach to the offseasons and still play long enough to win a SB or two even if Mahomes continues to be focused/obsessed with overtaking Brady as the GOAT.   

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah the reality when you have a Josh Allen type instead of a Brady/Mahomes(whose primary purpose in life is to win 7-8 SB's) is that you gotta' build like you are trying to beat THE REST of the league and hope that the tournament falls in your favor.  

 

That's how the Rams got their SB win 3 years ago.   That's how the Steelers made 3 trips to the SB and won 2 during the Brady era even though the Patriots OWNED Cowher/Roethlisberger/Tomlin in the playoffs.

 

All the more reason to stack high end receiving talent around Allen and try to give him the longest career possible so that he can continue his passive training approach to the offseasons and still play long enough to win a SB or two even if Mahomes continues to be focused/obsessed with overtaking Brady as the GOAT.   

Yup. The days of Bills fans dreaming for a 20 year reign of terror with 10 SB appearances is long dead.

 

We gotta try to build up the rest of the roster to sneak one or two if Pat twists his ankle.

[Big Turk]

That's basically the Diggs contract with maybe a few million more dollars guaranteed. So, no?

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

4 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Does it though?  As I have shown before, teams keep investing tons in WR's and haven't seen the payoff.  Look at arguably the best WR in the game in Hill...Miami can't even when their division with him and a 4 game lead late in the season with Waddle, Archane, and Mostert too.  Adams didn't do anything for Raiders.  Diggs didn't help the Bills do anything other than lose 3 straight years in the 2nd round.  Minnesota had both Diggs and Theilen and didn't get over the hump.  Dallas had both Cooper and Lamb and won less than we did.  Niners didn't get it done with both Aiyuk and Deebo, plus they had Kittle and CMC too.  

 

People always say this about WR, but we are not seeing this translate on the field like people assume it does.  

 

Tyreek Hill has a SB ring, both Devonta Smith/AJ Brown were runners up in a SB. We made it to the conference round and 3 division rounds with Diggs at WR. The bengals went to a SB with Chase/Higgins. The Rams won a SB with Cooper Kupp/OBJ. Just stating that WR "hasn't really dont anything" or "Haven't gotten over the hump" is a pretty short sighted take imo. Unfortunately it appears we're playing in another era where there is a Brady in patrick Mahomes and only 1 team can win, right now that's Mahomes.

[BADOLBILZ]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

Yup. The days of Bills fans dreaming for a 20 year reign of terror with 10 SB appearances is long dead.

 

We gotta try to build up the rest of the roster to sneak one or two if Pat twists his ankle.

 

 

Yeah and one other disservice of the drought was that a lot of Bills fans didn't follow the league as closely during it and don't have a good frame of reference.    

 

Prime Roethlisberger and Rodgers were much more physically gifted than Tom Brady.   It wasn't even close.   They were supposed to own the league.   Goodell literally changed the way the sport is played to protect those 2 golden boys because they wouldn't conform to the Brady/Brees/Manning style of existing solely as pocket passers.    And despite having the league shaped to their preference they still only won 3 combined SB's.........and one was at the expense of the other.    At least Pittsburgh had the excuse of having lost 3 conference title games(2 with Ben R) to Tom Brady.    

 

The Packers fell short of reaching SB's because they consistently failed to put enough receiving talent around Aaron Rodgers.   By the time they finally decided to invest capital in WR talent,  Rodgers was 39 and had one foot out the door and the other on a banana peel.

[LeGOATski]

5 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Does it though?  As I have shown before, teams keep investing tons in WR's and haven't seen the payoff.  Look at arguably the best WR in the game in Hill...Miami can't even when their division with him and a 4 game lead late in the season with Waddle, Archane, and Mostert too.  Adams didn't do anything for Raiders.  Diggs didn't help the Bills do anything other than lose 3 straight years in the 2nd round.  Minnesota had both Diggs and Theilen and didn't get over the hump.  Dallas had both Cooper and Lamb and won less than we did.  Niners didn't get it done with both Aiyuk and Deebo, plus they had Kittle and CMC too.  

 

People always say this about WR, but we are not seeing this translate on the field like people assume it does.  

In order to win a Super bowl, you at least need a franchise QB and a star for him to throw to. Top ten type player. That's a minimum.

 

Or just cheat like the Patriots....

[buffblue]

I don't think Devonta Smith is worth that contract. AJ Brown is a true #1 option. 25 mil for a #2 (albeit a very good one) is pretty crazy imo