DeVonta Smith - 3 yr $75M, $51M guaranteed - Does this kill any Bills trade talk for a star WR?

[Alphadawg7]

DeVonta Smith got his bag today, and $25m/per is no small number.  I would think Aiyuk will command more than this, and I know a lot of people have been thinking Bills could trade for him, make some crazy offer for Jefferson, or even Higgins (no thanks).  

 

I have a hard time seeing Beane see this kind of money going out for a WR2 and thinking its a good idea to trade for a WR1 likely to cost more than this.  I won't rule it out, Beane has shown to be aggressive when he wants a player, but I would think this pushes Aiyuk contract demands up even more and I am gonna guess Jefferson might end up the first WR over $30M (Hill being the first to hit $30M).   

 

We are staring at a historically great WR draft, so is Beane going to focus there (maybe he already was) or would he still pull the trigger knowing he is gonna have to pay one north of $25M per?  My gut says draft, we are in a different cap situation then when we traded for Diggs and Allen was on his rookie deal still, so hard to see him want to take on that much cap with a WR draft this strong in front of him.  But never know...

 

 

 

Edited April 15 by Alphadawg7

[Bruffalo]

That's a high number, but it shows you the positional value WR has.

 

If you have a chance to bring in a top 10 guy though I think you've gotta bite the bullet and go for it. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

4 minutes ago, Bruffalo said:

That's a high number, but it shows you the positional value WR has.

 

If you have a chance to bring in a top 10 guy though I think you've gotta bite the bullet and go for it. 

It's also something you can do when your QB isn't costing you $30-40M on the cap. 

[Alphadawg7]

3 minutes ago, Bruffalo said:

That's a high number, but it shows you the positional value WR has.

 

If you have a chance to bring in a top 10 guy though I think you've gotta bite the bullet and go for it. 

 

Does it though?  As I have shown before, teams keep investing tons in WR's and haven't seen the payoff.  Look at arguably the best WR in the game in Hill...Miami can't even when their division with him and a 4 game lead late in the season with Waddle, Archane, and Mostert too.  Adams didn't do anything for Raiders.  Diggs didn't help the Bills do anything other than lose 3 straight years in the 2nd round.  Minnesota had both Diggs and Theilen and didn't get over the hump.  Dallas had both Cooper and Lamb and won less than we did.  Niners didn't get it done with both Aiyuk and Deebo, plus they had Kittle and CMC too.  

 

People always say this about WR, but we are not seeing this translate on the field like people assume it does.  

[MasterStrategist]

Not only will the price tag of a Aiyuk, JJ, Higgins be alot, but the draft capital as well.  We're likely talking a future 1st rounder at minimum.

 

If we're going to drop a future 1st, I'd rather do what it takes to move up for 1 one of the top 3 in this years draft.

 

I could see Beane wanting to get that "stud" prospect OR building our WR group like the GB model (young collective unit, but no #1).

 

Either way, I don't see us trading for a premier WR

[Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD]

I don't think it makes any sense to trade for a star receiver considering we can't pay them without getting into cap hell. 

 

I'd rather use the draft picks we have to take a chance on a top wr in the 1st and have them under contract for up to 5 years for a low cap hit.

[Bruffalo]

15 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Does it though?  As I have shown before, teams keep investing tons in WR's and haven't seen the payoff.  Look at arguably the best WR in the game in Hill...Miami can't even when their division with him and a 4 game lead late in the season with Waddle, Archane, and Mostert too.  Adams didn't do anything for Raiders.  Diggs didn't help the Bills do anything other than lose 3 straight years in the 2nd round.  Minnesota had both Diggs and Theilen and didn't get over the hump.  Dallas had both Cooper and Lamb and won less than we did.  Niners didn't get it done with both Aiyuk and Deebo, plus they had Kittle and CMC too.  

 

People always say this about WR, but we are not seeing this translate on the field like people assume it does.  

All of those with the exception of Dallas and maybe SF put the cart before the horse though, they were trying to make up subpar QB play with star WRs.

 

It doesn't matter how good your WR are if you can't consistently get the ball to them. 

17 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

It's also something you can do when your QB isn't costing you $30-40M on the cap. 

Totally, the QB cap hit is a massive roadblock, but if you're investing in your QB then you need to also invest in the weapons around him. Either with high draft picks every year (in the hopes you land a top 10-15 WR), or with a big contract veteran.

 

 

Edited April 15 by Bruffalo

[DJB]

We were never trading for a high end WR that needed a new contract anyways . 
 

[boyst]

i don't think anything changes Beane's mind, ever. that's why i voted no.

 

look all he went through to get Frank Gore, Eman Sanders, and a few others.

 

the question will be does this influence the minds of the Bills Org. or put a damper on it???

[BarleyNY]

9 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

It's also something you can do when your QB isn't costing you $30-40M on the cap. 

The Iggles just signed Smith to this extension and also have Hurts signed to a 5 year, $255M contract. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

2 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

The Iggles just signed Smith to this extension and also have Hurts signed to a 5 year, $255M contract. 

And Hurt's cap hit the next 2 seasons:

 

2024- $13,558,800

2025- $21,769,800

 

Even in 2026 it's a low hit for a QB:

 

2026- $31,771,800

[CaptnCoke11]

That’s the price of having good players.  With the cap going up every year I see no problem with it 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Eagles have 2 WR1s. Dolphins will have to do this also. I don’t think SF will.

[MasterStrategist]

12 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

The Iggles just signed Smith to this extension and also have Hurts signed to a 5 year, $255M contract. 

Their window with Hurts/Brown/Smith are the next couple years.

 

AJ Brown likely gone in 2026

[Blackbeard]

Move up and draft a known, will-be #1.    

 

Rookie deal.

 

movin' on up.. movin' on up.. to the top..  to the top..  

[Alphadawg7]

24 minutes ago, Bruffalo said:

All of those with the exception of Dallas and maybe SF put the cart before the horse though, they were trying to make up subpar QB play with star WRs.

 

It doesn't matter how good your WR are if you can't consistently get the ball to them. 

Totally, the QB cap hit is a massive roadblock, but if you're investing in your QB then you need to also invest in the weapons around him. Either with high draft picks every year (in the hopes you land a top 10-15 WR), or with a big contract veteran.

 

 

 

Huh?  Miami's QB was an MVP candidate and still couldn't win the division with both Hill and Waddle and a 4 game lead last in the season.  Eagles had their MVP candidate QB too and didn't get the job done yet with both AJ Brown and Smith.  Cincy has Burrow and didn't get the job done with both Chase and Higgins.  Dallas has Dak who has been one of the most prolific passers statistically in the NFL who had Cooper and Lamb.  

 

So...yeah...your counter point makes no sense considering Dallas, SF, Mia, and Phi all had QB's who have been MVP candidates.  Chargers had Allen and Williams with Herbert and can't even make the playoffs.  

[ghostwriter]

You don’t eat $30M in dead cap just to sign another receiver for $25M/yr.

[Bruffalo]

3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Huh?  Miami's QB was an MVP candidate and still couldn't win the division with both Hill and Waddle and a 4 game lead last in the season.  Eagles had their MVP candidate QB too and didn't get the job done yet with both AJ Brown and Smith.  Cincy has Burrow and didn't get the job done with both Chase and Higgins.  Dallas has Dak who has been one of the most prolific passers statistically in the NFL who had Cooper and Lamb.  

 

So...yeah...your counter point makes no sense considering Dallas, SF, Mia, and Phi all had QB's who have been MVP candidates.  Chargers had Allen and Williams with Herbert and can't even make the playoffs.  

Anyone who actually watching Tua play knows that he is not the elite QB the stats were making him out to be.

 

You didn't mention the Eagles or Cincy, but they both got to a superbowl with elite WR talent, just because they didn't win one game doesn't mean it's not a sound strategy. 

 

I said Dallas was an exception. You're just adding random teams after the fact. 

 

[BarleyNY]

28 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

And Hurt's cap hit the next 2 seasons:

 

2024- $13,558,800

2025- $21,769,800

 

Even in 2026 it's a low hit for a QB:

 

2026- $31,771,800

 

Cap hits can be lowered like this if an owner is willing to spend. 

[H2o]

If we're talking about Aiyuk? Yes. 

 

If Seattle is looking to move DK? No. His cap hits are much more manageable over the next two years and a contract could be revisited after we fully escape cap hell in 2025.