Superstar WR? The Big Three

[Big Blitz]

The only absolute is you need elite coaching.  

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Took me years to figure this out, but reading whole posts of yours is often pointless.

 

3rd-5th paragraphs I addressed already.

 

We disagree on glaring holes at positions other than WR.

 

The crux of your argument is that there are glaring holes equal to or bigger than WR. 

 

I disagree with that. I actually don't even think that there's an argument that WR doesn't stand alone as the biggest and most glaring need. 

 

No point in this discussion if you can't see that.

 

 

 

Says the guy who knew that Tyrod Taylor was going to be a franchise QB. Remember when you said he'd shown that he was "near-elite"? For thousands and thousand and posts, I tried to tell you you were almost certainly wrong. For years. Over thousands and thousands and thousands of posts you told me how wrong I was and how my arguments were pointless.

 

Says the guy who absolutely knew that Josh Allen was going to be a failure before the draft. Remember that too? How you spent months telling us how there was no way he could ever succeed because of your careful study and complete understanding of completion percentages and how they couldn't change? Remember those days?

 

Remember how many "pointless" posts I spent telling you you were wrong? Yeah, I was pointless then and pointless now. Or so it seemed to the guy who knew what he knew about Tyrod and about how it was impossible for Josh to succeed. How pointless were those posts, actually, Transie? What they actually were was right on point. You just didn't see. 

 

Your pattern.

 

You're doing some thing stupid, as usual. This time in particular, though. You don't have the ability to tell me what the crux of my argument is. Not without reading my posts. So ***** off about the crux of my argument.

 

We have a bunch of holes on this team. One or possibly two safeties, DT, pass rushing Edge, IOL, CB. Depth elsewhere. And we need the draft to start filling them.

 

And yet again, making a huge trade up is a failing strategy. Massey-Thaler shows it, as do all the studies. It's an idea that has been shown to increase the odds of failure. Again and again.

 

But I'm sure you won't read. 'Course you didn't read the stuff about Tyrod or either. Remember? Remember how hopeless you thought Josh was?

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

Says the guy who knew that Tyrod Taylor was going to be a franchise QB. Remember when you said he'd shown that he was "near-elite"? For thousands and thousand and posts, I tried to tell you you were almost certainly wrong. For years. Over thousands and thousands and thousands of posts you told me how wrong I was and how my arguments were pointless.

 

Says the guy who absolutely knew that Josh Allen was going to be a failure before the draft. Remember that too? How you spent months telling us how there was no way he could ever succeed because of your careful study and complete understanding of completion percentages and how they couldn't change? Remember those days?

 

Remember how many "pointless" posts I spent telling you you were wrong? Yeah, I was pointless then and pointless now. Or so it seemed to the guy who knew what he knew about Tyrod and about how it was impossible for Josh to succeed. How pointless were those posts, actually, Transie? What they actually were was right on point. You just didn't see. 

 

Your pattern.

 

You're doing some thing stupid, as usual. This time in particular, though. You don't have the ability to tell me what the crux of my argument is. Not without reading my posts. So ***** off about the crux of my argument.

 

We have a bunch of holes on this team. One or possibly two safeties, DT, pass rushing Edge, IOL, CB. Depth elsewhere. And we need the draft to start filling them.

 

And yet again, making a huge trade up is a failing strategy. Massey-Thaler shows it, as do all the studies. It's an idea that has been shown to increase the odds of failure. Again and again.

 

But I'm sure you won't read. 'Course you didn't read the stuff about Tyrod or either. Remember? Remember how hopeless you thought Josh was?

 

Resorting to ad hominem now?

[transplantbillsfan]

On 4/12/2024 at 7:36 PM, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Trading up and getting one of the big three sounds like a lead-in to failure to me. 

 

As Alpha said yesterday, "Never in NFL history has a large investment to acquire a WR via trade, FA, or the draft has ever translated into a Super Bowl win.  No team has given up multiple premium picks to trade for a proven top end WR and paid them big money and gone on to win a SB (which is what some want us to do to get Auiyuk, Higgins, etc).  No team has ever signed a FA WR to top of the league money and then turned that into a SB win.  No team has ever made a big trade up in the first round using multiple premium picks and won a SB (which many want to send multiple firsts and multiple 2nds to get up into the top 12). There is no example of a major investment like that in a WR ever leading to a SB trophy."

 

Alpha continued, "There are however countless examples where teams have won the Super Bowl without having a top 5 WR.  In the past 20 Super Bowls only 1 team had a WR1 drafted in the top 15 of the draft (Mike Evans)."

 

Precisely.

 

You do NOT win because you have an excellent WR group. You win because you have an excellent team.

 

Yes, Mahomes won one with the best TE in the NFL and one of the best WRs in the NFL. He also won two with an excellent TE and a mediocre to below average WR group. That proves the point. It wasn't the great WR that was the reason for him winning that first one. It was having a consistently good team and a damn good QB.

 

They got that great WR with a massive tradeup that had them giving away the next year's first rounder, right? Oh, no, wait. They did not do that in any way, shape or form. They did indeed trade up giving away the next year's first. But for a quarterback. Not a WR. 

 

That's what Massey-Thaler tells you to do. That's what ALL the studies tell you. Never do huge trade-ups giving away premium assets except if you are going after a franchise QB. 

 

It's not just the studies making that case. That's what the story of the Chiefs tells you. Reid and Mahomes didn't need a great WR to win, as their last two wins show. But if you get a great WR, don't do it with a massive tradeup. The Chiefs didn't. They're an excellent example of doing things the right way. 

 

You claim that all five of the last five SB winners had an elite weapon. Not true.

 

Mike Evans is a terrific WR. But he wasn't elite the year the Bucs won it and he came in with 1006 yards. Same with Kupp the year the Rams won. Top ten surely, but not elite. 1161 yards is damn good, 9th in the league among WRs that year, but not elite. And while Kelce was maybe still elite last year, for the first time in years it's arguable. He was clearly showing his age and his production showed it.

 

In any case, the Bills appear to have two young guys who are closing in on elite status already, and both improving. Cook was the 3rd best RB in the league in yards from scrimmage. And Kincaid had a sensational year for a rookie and was visibly improving.

 

You say you'll "be fine if we stay put or trade down to get one of the other WRs.  One of them might pan out and become Elite.  I think Josh being their QB will help them with that."

 

We're in agreement there. There are a lot of really good prospects this year after the big three.

 

 

 

Just went back and read this to humor you and still couldn't even make it to the end 

 

Bruh... what happened to you... your arguments used to be much stronger.

 

Elite weapons are Elite weapons. Sounds like you define them by the stats they have in the year your labeling them while simultaneously neglecting the fact that Cooper Kupp had one of the best seasons by a WR in NFL history the year the Rams won the Super Bowl. 

 

Mike Evans and Travis Kelce are 1st ballot HOFers. Are you #^%@ing serious???

 

Plus there's the whole Godwin and Gronk thing when Brady won with the Bucs.

Edited April 14 by transplantbillsfan

[Nihilarian]

As I posted in a different thread. If Buffalo is going to use up some draft picks for a trade...I'd rather see them trade for SF WR Brandon Aiyuk over some rookie who may or may not ever become the #1 WR that Aiyuk already is. 

[Dr. Who]

7 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

As I posted in a different thread. If Buffalo is going to use up some draft picks for a trade...I'd rather see them trade for SF WR Brandon Aiyuk over some rookie who may or may not ever become the #1 WR that Aiyuk already is. 

The downside to that is you are going to pay out a big contract. If you hit on a rookie, you can use that money elsewhere in constructing a roster. I think the top 3 have pretty high floors, along with high ceilings. I'd rather risk it, if it is the choice you offer. The other option of staying at #28 or a smaller trade up or back has its own calculations.

[TBBills Fan]

21 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

Says the guy who knew that Tyrod Taylor was going to be a franchise QB. Remember when you said he'd shown that he was "near-elite"? For thousands and thousand and posts, I tried to tell you you were almost certainly wrong. For years. Over thousands and thousands and thousands of posts you told me how wrong I was and how my arguments were pointless.

 

Says the guy who absolutely knew that Josh Allen was going to be a failure before the draft. Remember that too? How you spent months telling us how there was no way he could ever succeed because of your careful study and complete understanding of completion percentages and how they couldn't change? Remember those days?

 

Remember how many "pointless" posts I spent telling you you were wrong? Yeah, I was pointless then and pointless now. Or so it seemed to the guy who knew what he knew about Tyrod and about how it was impossible for Josh to succeed. How pointless were those posts, actually, Transie? What they actually were was right on point. You just didn't see. 

 

Your pattern.

 

You're doing some thing stupid, as usual. This time in particular, though. You don't have the ability to tell me what the crux of my argument is. Not without reading my posts. So ***** off about the crux of my argument.

 

We have a bunch of holes on this team. One or possibly two safeties, DT, pass rushing Edge, IOL, CB. Depth elsewhere. And we need the draft to start filling them.

 

And yet again, making a huge trade up is a failing strategy. Massey-Thaler shows it, as do all the studies. It's an idea that has been shown to increase the odds of failure. Again and again.

 

But I'm sure you won't read. 'Course you didn't read the stuff about Tyrod or either. Remember? Remember how hopeless you thought Josh was?

[Nihilarian]

1 hour ago, Dr. Who said:

The downside to that is you are going to pay out a big contract. If you hit on a rookie, you can use that money elsewhere in constructing a roster. I think the top 3 have pretty high floors, along with high ceilings. I'd rather risk it, if it is the choice you offer. The other option of staying at #28 or a smaller trade up or back has its own calculations.

I dunno. Trading up into the top ten for one of the big three might cost a whole lot more than Aiyuk who might only cost next years #2 and later picks. Trading into the top ten this year would probably cost this year #1 & #2 AND picks next year...and nothing in the draft is a sure thing.

[Dr. Who]

49 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

I dunno. Trading up into the top ten for one of the big three might cost a whole lot more than Aiyuk who might only cost next years #2 and later picks. Trading into the top ten this year would probably cost this year #1 & #2 AND picks next year...and nothing in the draft is a sure thing.

Yes, I understand the risk. Aiyuk will cost a lot in terms of how much you have to pay him, and the amount of cap space that will take. The fella wants to get paid. The value of hitting on a top shelf WR on a rookie contract is similar to, but not as great, as hitting on a franchise QB on a rookie contract. You can then take advantage by redistributing the cap space dollars elsewhere. And, as I indicated, I think the top 3 this year are unlikely to bust, though there is indeed that chance. The question is if taking that risk is countered by the potential cap savings. 

 

I, personally, would take that risk over having to pay Aiyuk, though you are correct that you are paying for a known quantity as an NFL receiver. 

 

My favorite gamble would be to trade up from #60 using a 2025 second, and whatever other draft capital necessary, to end up with McConkey and either Mitchell or Thomas. That would also entail risk, and is perhaps unlikely. Regardless, that's my preference. If they end up going the Aiyuk route, it will seem to me trading out Diggs for Aiyuk and no cap savings, but he is a solid WR and it could work out well.

[LABILLBACKER]

4 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

As I posted in a different thread. If Buffalo is going to use up some draft picks for a trade...I'd rather see them trade for SF WR Brandon Aiyuk over some rookie who may or may not ever become the #1 WR that Aiyuk already is. 

Exactly,  I'll take a proven commodity over an unpredictable rookie wr. But we still need 2 if for no other reason then getting that 4-5 year rookie contract value.  March of 2025 you're going to see alot of $30M wr fa's signed or extended.

Edited April 15 by LABILLBACKER

[Buffalo Ballin]

Yes, we can win Super Bowls WITHOUT superstar WRs. That is true.

 

But, teams also win Super Bowls WITH Superstar WR.

 

So we're dismissing Joe Montana and Steve Young with Jerry Rice?

- Tom Brady with Randy Moss

- Peyton Manning with Marvin Harrison

- Mahomes with Tyreek Hill

- Troy Aikman with Michael Irvin

 

Bengals didn't win Super Bowl, but they have no problem beating us with Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase.

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

So Diana Russini looked back at the last 13 years of draft classes to examine bust potential of 1st round WR in this article 

https://theathletic.com/5405843/2024/04/10/odds-a-first-round-wr-busts-scoop-city?source=user-shared-article

 

It was objective. Here's the criteria:

 

To sort stars, busts and everything in between, I looked at four criteria:

 

Starts: Was the player good (and healthy) enough to start at least 50 career games?

 

Production: Did he post two 1,000-yard seasons?

 

No. 1 option: Has he seen 150-plus targets in any season?

 

Paid: Did his team pick up his fifth-year option?

 

Findings for WRs were 63% bust or reach in the 1st round and just 17.5% Superstar.

 

However, that same criteria was also put to drafting a WR in the top 10 amd the bust or reach rate drops to 47% and the Superstar rate jumps to 29.4%.

 

Much to the chagrin of @Thurman#1 this sure seems to support the idea of getting one of the Big 3. 

 

And what's fascinating is that while some *ahem* argue we can find great WRs in later rounds, listening to the "Move the Sticks" podcast today with Daniel Jeremiah and Bucky Brooks, they actually listed all the 2nd round draft picks from 2020-2022. 

 

Pretty terrible list.

 

Go back and look at 2nd and 3rd round WRs drafted over the last 4 or 5 years compared to the 1st round and especially compared to WRs drafted top 10.

 

Utterly forgettable.

Edited April 16 by transplantbillsfan

[BillStime]

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

On 4/11/2024 at 5:07 PM, Cray51 said:

I understand what you are trying to say, but every Super Bowl winning team in the last 5 years HAS had a top 10 receiving threat in that season (Kelce, Kupp, Kelce, Evans, Hill)

 

and, no team that has made the Super Bowl in the last 5 seasons has had a little surrounding talent then what the bills have right now without Diggs.

 

 

 

I think you are wrong here when it comes to the Chiefs. Kelce was not a top 10 receiving threat last season. He was not even top 20 in total receiving yards or yards per game. He was also outside the top 10 in both total receptions and receptions per game.

 

Only on paper right now do the Bills have less receiving talent than the Chiefs did last year. But I would be willing to bet at the end of the year, the 2024 Billls and 2023 Chiefs will look very similar in receiving numbers. Allen is still going to throw for 4,200 yards so those yards are going to go somewhere. Just as Mahomes threw for 4,200 last year and yet didn't have any one player eclipse 1,000 yards. 

[Cray51]

7 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

I think you are wrong here when it comes to the Chiefs. Kelce was not a top 10 receiving threat last season. He was not even top 20 in total receiving yards or yards per game. He was also outside the top 10 in both total receptions and receptions per game.

 

Only on paper right now do the Bills have less receiving talent than the Chiefs did last year. But I would be willing to bet at the end of the year, the 2024 Billls and 2023 Chiefs will look very similar in receiving numbers. Allen is still going to throw for 4,200 yards so those yards are going to go somewhere. Just as Mahomes threw for 4,200 last year and yet didn't have any one player eclipse 1,000 yards. 

In the playoffs, Kelce went 32 catches on 37 targets for 355 yards and 3 TDs.  He elevated his game because he is still absolutely a top 20 receiving threat in the league.  His regular season wasn't great, but he turned it on when he needed to.  Just like most Chief's players did.

 

I dont disagree that Allen will likely have 4,100+ yards to end the year.  I'm just thinking, when the playoffs come around, can our talent at the WR/TE positions elevate like a Kelce can?

[Warriorspikes51]

On 4/18/2024 at 3:17 PM, BillStime said:

 

STAY IN THE NFC!!!!!

 

Or

 

AJ Brown to BUF for 2025 2nd + 128 

 

 

Edited April 19 by Warriorspikes51

[julian]

On 4/19/2024 at 6:47 PM, Warriorspikes51 said:

STAY IN THE NFC!!!!!

 

Or

 

AJ Brown to BUF for 2025 2nd + 128 

 

 

So AJ Brown shows how to put out a fire due to his social media activity, which leads one to believe if some other diva WR were to not immediately address the controversy then it’s by design.

 

 Yup seemed obvious all along to many.

[BeavercreekBillsFan]

On 4/13/2024 at 10:55 PM, Big Blitz said:

The only absolute is you need elite coaching.  

This x a million. I have no faith in McDermott so what you stated is a sad truth 

[All_Pro_Bills]

On 4/15/2024 at 2:46 AM, Buffalo Ballin said:

Yes, we can win Super Bowls WITHOUT superstar WRs. That is true.

 

But, teams also win Super Bowls WITH Superstar WR.

 

So we're dismissing Joe Montana and Steve Young with Jerry Rice?

- Tom Brady with Randy Moss

- Peyton Manning with Marvin Harrison

- Mahomes with Tyreek Hill

- Troy Aikman with Michael Irvin

 

Bengals didn't win Super Bowl, but they have no problem beating us with Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase.

 

 

There are many ways to win.  And lose.  The 49er for example, had 4 Pro Bowl/All Pro level offensive weapons and a competent QB last year and yet still lost a close Super Bowl to a Chiefs team that just played a little bit better at the end of the game when it counted.  So the Bills getting WR1 in the draft might improve the offense but is adding that player to the roster going to make the difference or is there another reason they can't get past the divisional round the last 2 years?    

 

 

[Bill from NYC]

On 4/11/2024 at 7:05 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I mean, I want a WR early in this draft too, we all do.  But this notion we must mortgage the farm to go get one has 0 examples of ever working and weakens a cap strapped team from building the overall roster.  I mean next year, we have a first and 2 seconds to keep adding more ammo to this team, and people want to give it away like sticks of gum.  Not to mention, this is maybe the best WR draft in history, even less need to make a major move.  

Agreed. I don't want a Whaley type move of stupidly giving away the store with trade ups, and McDermott did give away picks for Edmunds and Elam. 

 

I also think that quarterbacks AND receivers obviously benefit from very strong offensive lines. A quarterback like Josh can find any receiver given all day to throw. Your stats went back 20 years but the NFL is an increasingly offense oriented league, passing in particular. I think that the Bills should focus on wide receivers and blockers for depth.  This would well serve to keep the Bills competitive.

 

One last point.....I saw the blame that you placed on the Bills losses in recent big games, but you left out McDermott. I'm just sayin.....