Superstar WR? The Big Three

[Draconator]

 

[Jimmy Harris 69]

 McBean, 

Let the draft come to you. Trade down to the top of the 2nd if the board suits. We need three to four immediate contributors. We already have Josh Allen. We don’t need the one of the top three receivers in the draft…

[Thurman#1]

10 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Mahomes won with the best TE in the NFL and one of the best WRs in the NFL.

 

If you're talking about "drafted in the top 10," that's fine except it's a crap shoot.  Ryan's MVP season and Super Bowl loss season was with one of the best WRs in the NFL who happened to be a top 10 pick.  Mahomes's first 2 Super Bowl appearances (1 loss and 1 win) were with 2 of the best weapons in all of the NFL.  They both had red flags due to character concerns that dropped them in the draft.

 

 

Nothing is ever guaranteed in the NFL.  Did you think I was saying it was?  

 

See my previous comments on Mahomes.  Of course you can get an Elite WR later in the draft, but hindsight is 20/20 and those players aren't guaranteed.  The argument is silly and looks only in the rearview mirror.

 

Nothing is guaranteed with the top 3 WRs, but in particular MHJ & Odunze look to be as close to those can't miss/high floor prospects there have been in many years.

 

 

Teams that play for a Lombardi have at least 1 Elite weapon more often than not.  Look at the 5 most recent Super Bowls.  All 10 teams had 1 or more Elite Weapon.

 

 

I'll be fine if we stay put or trade down to get one of the other WRs.  One of them might pan out and become Elite.  I think Josh being their QB will help them with that.

 

But trading up and getting one of the Big 3 (Odunze just screams Buffalo to me) sounds more appealing.

 

 

 

Trading up and getting one of the big three sounds like a lead-in to failure to me. 

 

As Alpha said yesterday, "Never in NFL history has a large investment to acquire a WR via trade, FA, or the draft has ever translated into a Super Bowl win.  No team has given up multiple premium picks to trade for a proven top end WR and paid them big money and gone on to win a SB (which is what some want us to do to get Auiyuk, Higgins, etc).  No team has ever signed a FA WR to top of the league money and then turned that into a SB win.  No team has ever made a big trade up in the first round using multiple premium picks and won a SB (which many want to send multiple firsts and multiple 2nds to get up into the top 12). There is no example of a major investment like that in a WR ever leading to a SB trophy."

 

Alpha continued, "There are however countless examples where teams have won the Super Bowl without having a top 5 WR.  In the past 20 Super Bowls only 1 team had a WR1 drafted in the top 15 of the draft (Mike Evans)."

 

Precisely.

 

You do NOT win because you have an excellent WR group. You win because you have an excellent team.

 

Yes, Mahomes won one with the best TE in the NFL and one of the best WRs in the NFL. He also won two with an excellent TE and a mediocre to below average WR group. That proves the point. It wasn't the great WR that was the reason for him winning that first one. It was having a consistently good team and a damn good QB.

 

They got that great WR with a massive tradeup that had them giving away the next year's first rounder, right? Oh, no, wait. They did not do that in any way, shape or form. They did indeed trade up giving away the next year's first. But for a quarterback. Not a WR. 

 

That's what Massey-Thaler tells you to do. That's what ALL the studies tell you. Never do huge trade-ups giving away premium assets except if you are going after a franchise QB. 

 

It's not just the studies making that case. That's what the story of the Chiefs tells you. Reid and Mahomes didn't need a great WR to win, as their last two wins show. But if you get a great WR, don't do it with a massive tradeup. The Chiefs didn't. They're an excellent example of doing things the right way. 

 

You claim that all five of the last five SB winners had an elite weapon. Not true.

 

Mike Evans is a terrific WR. But he wasn't elite the year the Bucs won it and he came in with 1006 yards. Same with Kupp the year the Rams won. Top ten surely, but not elite. 1161 yards is damn good, 9th in the league among WRs that year, but not elite. And while Kelce was maybe still elite last year, for the first time in years it's arguable. He was clearly showing his age and his production showed it.

 

In any case, the Bills appear to have two young guys who are closing in on elite status already, and both improving. Cook was the 3rd best RB in the league in yards from scrimmage. And Kincaid had a sensational year for a rookie and was visibly improving.

 

You say you'll "be fine if we stay put or trade down to get one of the other WRs.  One of them might pan out and become Elite.  I think Josh being their QB will help them with that."

 

We're in agreement there. There are a lot of really good prospects this year after the big three.

 

 

Edited April 13 by Thurman#1

[Nihilarian]

The Patriot's offensive formula for winning so many SBs is to play good defense, have a good running game, move the chains to the red zone, and later on have a good TE to catch those red zone TDs (Gronk)...and oh yeah, Tom Brady at QB. 

 

Nevertheless, the Chiefs made it to the SB and won with that same game plan last season. The Bucs did it with that game plan.  

 

That game plan still works. Buffalo has the QB with Allen, the running game with Cook, and the TEs with Knox, and Kincade.  Gotta get that defense to a top-five unit with a dominant pass rush. 

 

Defense wins championships! Last year the Chiefs had the #2 overall defense. 

 

I wouldn't be upset with a defensive player taken at #28, Saftey, DT, Edge rusher, or a center. Just as long as they address the WR position at some point too. 

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

Stopped reading after the first few paragraphs. It's not that you're missing the point, it's that our underlying assumption of this team overall differs, which throws us off in different directions on the WR discussion.

 

The Bills already have a good team. In another thread I posit the belief that Buffalo will be better next season already.

 

Since I posted that thread (if I have the timing right), the Bills have signed Samuel, 2 veteran DTs, Mike Edwards, Lael Collins and possibly Toohill if that was the timing.

 

And we traded away Diggs.

 

I posted that thread because I believe most position groups are poised to be better than they were last year along with our coaching staff.

 

You can disagree with that, which you clearly do. But the FACT remains that there are really only 2 positions on this team with glaring holes: RB & WR.

 

You don't draft RBs in round 1 and we'll be fine getting a guy like Estime in mid to later rounds. But our WR corps is Samuel, Shakir, Hollins, and Shorter. That's it. Yes, we have several futures contracts with potential, but unlike you, I'd rather not roll the dice on the lesser known guys.

 

There's a reason pretty much everyone is talking about drafting a WR very early. We need one and it's probably the one hole that absolutely needs to be filled. If our top 3 WRs going into 2024 are Shakir, Samuel & Hollins, I don't think anyone is feeling great.

 

And it's pretty Universal in this draft who the top 3 guys are and pretty Universal they're in a tier of their own. Yes, I will be excited if we draft a guy like Legette. But after the top 3 guys the scouts and draft experts vary wildly on opinions. Legette is Joe Marino's 4th rated WR and has a 1st round grade. He's Brugler's 15th rated WR and has a 3rd round grade.

 

Odunze, Nabers & MHJ are guys worth the resources. Mahomes may have won 2 Super Bowls without Hill, but he still had Kelce for both. And the training wheels of Hill & Kelce certainly helped him get there twice previously.

 

Get Josh his #1.

[FireChans]

On 4/11/2024 at 6:51 PM, FireChans said:

Do you think the Falcons lost because they had Julio Jones?

 

Do you think the 2007 Pats lost because they had Randy Moss?

This is where the silly argument in this topic ends.

 

if you don’t think they lost BECAUSE they had elite WR’s, what the ***** are we talking about?

2 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

The Patriot's offensive formula for winning so many SBs is to play good defense, have a good running game, move the chains to the red zone, and later on have a good TE to catch those red zone TDs (Gronk)...and oh yeah, Tom Brady at QB. 

 

Nevertheless, the Chiefs made it to the SB and won with that same game plan last season. The Bucs did it with that game plan.  

 

That game plan still works. Buffalo has the QB with Allen, the running game with Cook, and the TEs with Knox, and Kincade.  Gotta get that defense to a top-five unit with a dominant pass rush. 

 

Defense wins championships! Last year the Chiefs had the #2 overall defense. 

 

I wouldn't be upset with a defensive player taken at #28, Saftey, DT, Edge rusher, or a center. Just as long as they address the WR position at some point too. 

The Bucs had Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, Chris Godwin, AND Gronk.

 

Brady went their because they had a bunch of great weapons.

 

They got a little bit older and Baker still got them to the playoffs.

 

What?

 

What?

 

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Stopped reading after the first few paragraphs. It's not that you're missing the point, it's that our underlying assumption of this team overall differs, which throws us off in different directions on the WR discussion.

 

The Bills already have a good team. In another thread I posit the belief that Buffalo will be better next season already.

 

Since I posted that thread (if I have the timing right), the Bills have signed Samuel, 2 veteran DTs, Mike Edwards, Lael Collins and possibly Toohill if that was the timing.

 

And we traded away Diggs.

 

I posted that thread because I believe most position groups are poised to be better than they were last year along with our coaching staff.

 

You can disagree with that, which you clearly do. But the FACT remains that there are really only 2 positions on this team with glaring holes: RB & WR.

 

You don't draft RBs in round 1 and we'll be fine getting a guy like Estime in mid to later rounds. But our WR corps is Samuel, Shakir, Hollins, and Shorter. That's it. Yes, we have several futures contracts with potential, but unlike you, I'd rather not roll the dice on the lesser known guys.

 

There's a reason pretty much everyone is talking about drafting a WR very early. We need one and it's probably the one hole that absolutely needs to be filled. If our top 3 WRs going into 2024 are Shakir, Samuel & Hollins, I don't think anyone is feeling great.

 

And it's pretty Universal in this draft who the top 3 guys are and pretty Universal they're in a tier of their own. Yes, I will be excited if we draft a guy like Legette. But after the top 3 guys the scouts and draft experts vary wildly on opinions. Legette is Joe Marino's 4th rated WR and has a 1st round grade. He's Brugler's 15th rated WR and has a 3rd round grade.

 

Odunze, Nabers & MHJ are guys worth the resources. Mahomes may have won 2 Super Bowls without Hill, but he still had Kelce for both. And the training wheels of Hill & Kelce certainly helped him get there twice previously.

 

Get Josh his #1.

 

 

You say you didn't bother to read most of my post. 

 

I understand. I pointed out areas where you were wrong. It's tough to read that sometimes. A lot wrong with this post I am now replying to also.

 

If you want to say we only have two glaring holes, I guess it depends on your definition of glaring. We have a number of holes. Neither of our starting safeties has ever consistently started at safety. That's a hole. We have a serious lack of pass rushers. That's a hole, and one that needs to be addressed in some way and pronto. Both of those needs are far more serious than RB. We also have weak and unproven spots at IOL and CB.

 

We had to let a ton of people go because of the cap and that created holes. Kid yourself if you want, but that's the way it is.

 

Certainly WR is one of our biggest holes. Very far from the only one.

 

As for a #1, plenty of teams win Super Bowls without them. Get a guy in the first two rounds.

 

Odunze, Nabers and MHJ are absolutely NOT worth using a strategy which has a success record of zero percent in NFL history in producing titles. The idea is dumb, unless one of them falls far enough to be gotten at a semi-reasonable price, in the late teens, maybe. Problem is the odds of that happening are close to zero.

 

Yes, Mahomes had Kelce. Kelce last year had less than a thousand yards last year and yet they won a title. There's every reason to think Kincaid will be in the thousand yard neighborhood this year. We don't need a #1 anymore than Mahomes does.

 

But picking a WR in the first two rounds makes a ton of sense.

[Thurman#1]

17 minutes ago, FireChans said:

This is where the silly argument in this topic ends.

 

if you don’t think they lost BECAUSE they had elite WR’s, what the ***** are we talking about?

 

The Bucs had Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, Chris Godwin, AND Gronk.

 

Brady went their because they had a bunch of great weapons.

 

They got a little bit older and Baker still got them to the playoffs.

 

What?

 

What?

 

 

 

Seriously? You think that ends the argument?

 

Um, not really so much at all.

 

Just because you can't point to one factor and say it's the only cause of a given result in football doesn't mean the discussion is over. Football is a wildly complicated game and nearly every result is caused by hundreds of factors.

 

But what we do know 100% for certain is that having Julio Jones wasn't enough to get the Falcons over the hump. They were way ahead in that Super Bowl, just needed another score or at least a couple of long good drives even without a score, and having Julio on that team wasn't enough to get them that. They failed to get over the hump, not just for that game but for the ten years Jones was on that team. And again, he was drafted onto a team that was 13-3 the year before, with a good QB, and looked to themselves at least like they were one receiver away. They weren't. 

 

Having an elite WR group doesn't win you titles. You need more than that. You need a damn good roster, up and down. 

 

Within all too short of a time, they were finding that they needed an overall increase in talent that the picks they'd traded away would have provided, rather than needing just one guy. 

 

Picking Mike Evans was a good idea because they didn't trade up to do it, much less make a huge trade up throwing away many of the best picks in two drafts the way the Falcons did to get Julio Jones.

 

 

[papazoid]

On 4/11/2024 at 7:05 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

 

This is what I have been saying.  The last 20 years, only one SB team had a WR1 taken in the top 15 picks.  There has never been any team in NFL history to make a huge investment to acquire a WR via trading for a proven one or trading up to draft one and win a SB.  There isn't even a team who signed an expensive one in FA that won a SB.  

 

Making a large investment in a WR via draft picks or free agency spending has a 0% success rate...aka 100% fail rate...in taking a team and getting them over the hump to win a Super Bowl.

 

Look at what Miami paid for Tyreek Hill who has been arguably the best WR in the NFL (him or Jefferson) the past 2 years and Miami can't even win their division with a 4 game lead late in the season and has 0 playoff wins.  Or look at Raiders an Davante Adams.  Even NE when they had Moss actually LOST in the Super Bowl, although they didn't invest a lot to get him.  

 

Now go look at the top 5 WR's in the NFL...more often than not, they are not on teams in the Super Bowl, let alone winning it.  

 

This board has had an unhealthy obsession with WR as if not having the best WR's is the reason we lose.  We lost in 2020 because we were the worst team on the field in that game.  We lost in 2021 because of our defense.  We lost in 2022 because we got dominated in the trenches and couldn't run the ball in bad elements.  We lost in 2023 because we had no Linebackers and KC abused that mismatch and we couldn't even get Mahomes dirty.  

 

We have never been eliminated because we didn't have enough weapons.  Our stable of weapons the last 4 years is better than a lot of Super Bowl winning teams offensive stables.  We had a top 5, arguably top 3, WR for the past 4 seasons and we have lost in the 2nd round 3 straight seasons.  

 

I mean, I want a WR early in this draft too, we all do.  But this notion we must mortgage the farm to go get one has 0 examples of ever working and weakens a cap strapped team from building the overall roster.  I mean next year, we have a first and 2 seconds to keep adding more ammo to this team, and people want to give it away like sticks of gum.  Not to mention, this is maybe the best WR draft in history, even less need to make a major move.  

 

agree

 

investing heavily in WR is not a proven recipe for a super bowl win

 

the current Bills team is in Cap jail. we can't afford to trade and pay top dollar for a free agent at any position.

 

the bills need to keep and save their premium first and second round draft picks this year and next to fill several holes WR1, Edge, Safety, Center.

 

makes no sense to bundle all those premium draft picks to move up into this years top 10 for a WR1. minor moves using our 4th, 5th or 6th round picks is fine.

[Cray51]

12 hours ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

No one really knows the talent we have since Kincaid and Shakir are so young. You can throw Shorter in there as well. Any of these players can turn into a stud. 

Totally understand that, and I really like Kincaid.  But there is a very very small chance Shakir or shorter get to #1 receiver level

[NoSaint]

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

This is where the silly argument in this topic ends.

 

if you don’t think they lost BECAUSE they had elite WR’s, what the ***** are we talking about?

The Bucs had Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, Chris Godwin, AND Gronk.

 

Brady went their because they had a bunch of great weapons.

 

They got a little bit older and Baker still got them to the playoffs.

 

What?

 

What?

 

I still think people are forgetting that the pats with miss scored 140 points more than we did last year and in one fewer game. 
 

they were an absolute buzz saw 

 

a true menace to the league. 
 

and they got unlucky at the worst time but boy would I be good to go with that route instead of the chiefs 2023 model 

[DJB]

I still want to trade up for one of the top 3 guys. A young elite WR to spend his career with Josh would be perfect 

 

I also think it’s Odunze the Bills would love. High, high character and work ethic with incredible hands. The most all around WR in the class 

Edited April 13 by DJB

[Dr. Who]

36 minutes ago, DJB said:

I still want to trade up for one of the top 3 guys. A young elite WR to spend his career with Josh would be perfect 

 

I also think it’s Odunze the Bills would love. High, high character and work ethic with incredible hands. The most all around WR in the class 

I think he is the one that is most likely to be plausibly available. I just don't see a move up into the top 6 picks. It would be prohibitively expensive. Someone would have to fall to the pick 8 or 9 range. (That will still be very expensive.) I can't see the Jets passing on Odunze, so I surmise that is where you'd have to get to acquire him.

Edited April 13 by Dr. Who

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

But what we do know 100% for certain is that having Julio Jones wasn't enough to get the Falcons over the hump

True.

 

what that DOESN’T mean is that they lost because they had Julio.

 

Which is the point.

 

it’s why @Alphadawg7’s points are so silly. “No one ever won a Super Bowl trading up for a WR.” 
 

Well guess what fellas? No one ever won a Super Bowl with a QB from Wyoming. Is it time to trade Josh Allen for picks to get JJ McCarthy?

 

 

 

 

[NoSaint]

22 minutes ago, DJB said:

I still want to trade up for one of the top 3 guys. A young elite WR to spend his career with Josh would be perfect 

 

I also think it’s Odunze the Bills would love. High, high character and work ethic with incredible hands. The most all around WR in the class 

even if not a career guy for the bills- 

 

if he’s elite 

 

and he’s paired with Josh as an elite prospect he should be a star in the league

 

he will a superstar haul to trade in 5 years 

 

tyreek was a 1-2-4-4-6(?)

 

if we trade up we could reasonably expect to get a lot of the haul back 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

3 hours ago, Cray51 said:

Totally understand that, and I really like Kincaid.  But there is a very very small chance Shakir or shorter get to #1 receiver level

New England dominated for years w/ a cast of sure-handed “good, but not great” receivers. The most important thing is they run the correct routes, don’t drop the ball, and know how to improvise on the fly. If the offensive line can continue to hold up then I think Allen will be fine. I think we will see a much more Tight End-centric offense this season as well w/ Kincaid split out and Knox lined up traditionally. There’s talent, but it needs to be utilized correctly. 

[NoSaint]

27 minutes ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

New England dominated for years w/ a cast of sure-handed “good, but not great” receivers. The most important thing is they run the correct routes, don’t drop the ball, and know how to improvise on the fly. If the offensive line can continue to hold up then I think Allen will be fine. I think we will see a much more Tight End-centric offense this season as well w/ Kincaid split out and Knox lined up traditionally. There’s talent, but it needs to be utilized correctly. 

well, with possibly the greatest qb of all time, and possibly the greatest tight end. 
 

and did take a massive step forward by adding the elite wr even if the economics weren’t long term sustainable 

[transplantbillsfan]

6 hours ago, FireChans said:

This is where the silly argument in this topic ends.

 

if you don’t think they lost BECAUSE they had elite WR’s, what the ***** are we talking about?

 

[TurfToeJam]

49 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

well, with possibly the greatest qb of all time, and possibly the greatest tight end. 
 

 

You're talking about the highly successful Gronk and Brady right? 

Or the highly successful Kelce and mahomes, right?  

 

Oh, wait, you mean the soon to be highly successful Kincaid and Allen!  

😷

[NoSaint]

1 hour ago, TurfToeJam said:

 

You're talking about the highly successful Gronk and Brady right? 

Or the highly successful Kelce and mahomes, right?  

 

Oh, wait, you mean the soon to be highly successful Kincaid and Allen!  

😷

imagine if we add a moss.