Superstar WR? The Big Three

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

This is a fun example...here is why I didn't include him.  Statistically hemhad his 3 worst prime years (all in the 800 yard range) in his 3 years in Baltimore where he was a 1000+ yard guy both before and after Balt but never reaching 900 in Baltimore.  And the trade compensation is not really that close to the trade compensation we are discussing, although I will give you its still a decent size investment.

 

But, this is a worthy counter example to weigh, so nice work, and I won't fully disregard this one even though I think it falls a little short on the comparable moves we are discussing, especially given to get one of the big 3 its going to cost the Bills substantially more than what Balt paid to get Boldin.  

 

Still, nice work  

Thanks! See above re Alshon Jeffrey too, which I added. 

Re Boldin, the stats were always bound to decline a bit because they were a run-heavy team. But the postseason numbers were excellent.

[billsfan89]

Just now, dave mcbride said:

Thanks! See above re Alshon Jeffrey too, which I added. 

Re Boldin, the stats were always bound to decline a bit because they were a run-heavy team. But the postseason numbers were excellent.

Boldin was also a fantastic blocker (which for a run heavy team like the Ravens or 49ers is more important) he set a physical tone on offense which is very rare for a WR. 

[dave mcbride]

9 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

This is a fun example...here is why I didn't include him.  Statistically hemhad his 3 worst prime years (all in the 800 yard range) in his 3 years in Baltimore where he was a 1000+ yard guy both before and after Balt but never reaching 900 in Baltimore.  And the trade compensation is not really that close to the trade compensation we are discussing, although I will give you its still a decent size investment.

 

But, this is a worthy counter example to weigh, so nice work, and I won't fully disregard this one even though I think it falls a little short on the comparable moves we are discussing, especially given to get one of the big 3 its going to cost the Bills substantially more than what Balt paid to get Boldin.  

 

Still, nice work  

Would you trade our very late 2nd and a 4th for Aiyuk? I would. It's sort of an equivalent trade factoring in that WRs now have a higher premium than they did in 2010. 

5 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

Boldin was also a fantastic blocker (which for a run heavy team like the Ravens or 49ers is more important) he set a physical tone on offense which is very rare for a WR. 

He was honestly one of my favorite players to watch. I always said that if the throw had been to Anquan Boldin instead of Lee Evans, there was no way Leigh Bodden was going to knock it out of his hands. 

Edited April 12 by dave mcbride

[Alphadawg7]

4 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Would you trade our very late 2nd and a 4th for Aiyuk? I would. It's sort of an equivalent trade factoring in that WRs have a higher premium than they did in 2010. 

 

Yes if Beane can make the cap work as he wants more money now, not later.  

 

4 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

He was honestly one of my favorite players to watch. I always said that if the throw had been to Anquan Boldin instead of Lee Evans, there was no way Leigh Bodden was going to knock it out of his hands. 

 

Anquan Boldin has a HOF case IMHO, I think he is one of the most underrated WR's of the past 20 years.  I would LOVE to find an equivalent to Boldin in this draft.  And he is a prime example, along with guys like Larry Fitzgerald, that 40 time is not the be all end all its made out to be.  

[NoSaint]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Ultimately, as I see it, the problem with these arguments that @Alphadawg7 and others are making about either not needing a great WR or "trading up for a stud WR never works" is that there just isn't much context.

 

It's derivative of the argument that teams with league leading rushers never win the SB anymore..............when that used to be fairly common.............that was a legitimate proof of change in the league.   And the flip side of that is that teams with superstars at other positions do win SB's on the regular.    

 

You can identify the other side of the argument.

 

You can't identify the other side of the argument with these WR narratives that are being created.

 

Trading up OR trading back in a draft for anything other than a QB rarely moves the needle to "SB winner" for a franchise.   

 

The league changed in 2010.    By 2018 when the Bills were able to get Josh Allen with pick #7 an influx of QB talent had begun.   Young athletes were being steered into passing game positions.    No longer were there just 3-5 teams that had an incredibly talented QB option.    At the same time,   WR talent was following suit.    What's happened, in general, is that the arms race has shifted from QB to WR.    To even reach the SB in this era of relative abundance of QB talent you pretty much need 2 stud receiving targets.   Even the Pats had Gronk and Edelman.   The Chiefs second options the last 2 years had nearly 1,000 yards receiving in the regular season.   And those are the closest things to exceptions.   Most that reach the SB have greater talents.  

 

I just don't think there is a definitive argument about which is the way to get them.    And we're just pretending there is by creating these narratives that don't really tell us much.

largely, agreed. 
 

it’s a short window and to pretend Brady and mahomes aren’t the true issue at hand in this debate is a real challenge. 
 

 

to think you can’t because of the last decade-ish is both challenging data and looking to confirm an opinion.
 

Had the falcons held on in 28-3 does it really materially affect this debate and make one say it’s one of the few proven ways to break through the Brady-mahomes wall as opposed to currently being an impossible strategy? 
 

id love a cheap great wr, but I know they are more predictable if you get a top tier instead of waiting. 

[boater]

On the TBD news page, Syracuse Post suggests the Bills might even trade down.

 

"The Bills might ultimately be content with letting the draft play out and addressing the position at No. 28 — or even possibly trading back."

 

That would cause a melt down around here.

[NoSaint]

6 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Yes if Beane can make the cap work as he wants more money now, not later.  

 

 

Anquan Boldin has a HOF case IMHO, I think he is one of the most underrated WR's of the past 20 years.  I would LOVE to find an equivalent to Boldin in this draft.  And he is a prime example, along with guys like Larry Fitzgerald, that 40 time is not the be all end all its made out to be.  

cash now is the easy part with bonus amortizations 

Just now, boater said:

On the TBD news page, Syracuse Post suggests the Bills might even trade down.

 

"The Bills might ultimately be content with letting the draft play out and addressing the position at No. 28 — or even possibly trading back."

 

That would cause a melt down around here.

I don’t think you can go into a dynamic day with a singular approach, in most cases

 

you have to see where value lands. That said it sure would be tough to reach the regular season with Samuel, Shakir and a second rounder 

 

those guys tend to take some time to acclimate AND heaven forbid there’s any hiccups or an injury to Samuel. 
 

shakir-round 2 rookie as our primary options the first half of the year could be a real challenge.

[Alphadawg7]

4 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

cash now is the easy part with bonus amortizations 

I don’t think you can go into a dynamic day with a singular approach, in most cases

 

you have to see where value lands. That said it sure would be tough to reach the regular season with Samuel, Shakir and a second rounder 

 

those guys tend to take some time to acclimate AND heaven forbid there’s any hiccups or an injury to Samuel. 
 

shakir-round 2 rookie as our primary options the first half of the year could be a real challenge.

 

I mean it depends who we are talking about.  If we got McConkey in round 2, I think he is the most ready outside the big 4 to come in and make an immediate impact.  If we got say Legette, I think he will struggle early and will take more time to develop into a true WR1 outside a big play threat.  

[MiracleAtRich1393]

19 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

The last 5 super bowls had the following #1 receiving options. In addition to that in most cases these teams had another option that was pretty damn good as well.  

 

2023: Travis Kelse vs Brandon Aiyuk

2022: Travis Kelse vs AJ Brown

2021: Cooper Kupp vs Ja'Marr Chase

2020: Mike Evans vs Travis Kelse

2019: Travis Kelse vs George Kittle 

 

Just because New England was able to do it a certain way doesn't make it a model for everybody else. Even in the 5 years since the last New England Super Bowl the game has changed even more. Other examples you give such as Megatron (horrific team) Moss (major reason for undefeated season), Julio Jones (should have won the Super Bowl) don't add up to don't focus on WR.

 

If anything this thread tells me the Super Bowl has multiple paths for different teams. Currently we don't have a dominating unit. That could change with some positive play but that's where it stands right now. We have Allen and a lot of pieces that could come together.  With that we don't have a pass catcher on our roster who has ever achieved a 1000 yard season in his career. So yes, as much as you can argue WR isn't an essential piece to the equation for many teams it is for us right now. Currently our most essential piece has no weapons and that statement would also be true for the future years unless we see Kinkaid or Shakir really take off. Very possible, but you land your insurance piece in the draft and thats how you become one of the teams above with your main pass catcher being a star with secondary options being guys like Deboo Samuel, Tyreek Hill, Tee Higgins, Chris Godwin, DeVonta Smith, etc

 

 

You listed a lot of elite TEs for those other teams (fairly I might add) but people often overlook Gronk as a weapon for NE, a probable first ballot HOF game changing weapon in his own right!

[transplantbillsfan]

9 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Matt Ryan and Pat Mahomes are BOTH the models. Neither one won a Super Bowl with any top ten WR on his roster. Both teach the same thing, though from opposite directions.

 

Mahomes won with the best TE in the NFL and one of the best WRs in the NFL.

 

If you're talking about "drafted in the top 10," that's fine except it's a crap shoot.  Ryan's MVP season and Super Bowl loss season was with one of the best WRs in the NFL who happened to be a top 10 pick.  Mahomes's first 2 Super Bowl appearances (1 loss and 1 win) were with 2 of the best weapons in all of the NFL.  They both had red flags due to character concerns that dropped them in the draft.

 

9 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

Ryan teaches that even having an absolutely sensational WR on the team guarantees nothing and in fact led to far more losing than winning. Mahomes teaches that you can win SBs without blowing huge resources on WRs. Didn't have a top ten pick or even a first round pick at WR on any of those SB rosters.

 

Nothing is ever guaranteed in the NFL.  Did you think I was saying it was?  

 

See my previous comments on Mahomes.  Of course you can get an Elite WR later in the draft, but hindsight is 20/20 and those players aren't guaranteed.  The argument is silly and looks only in the rearview mirror.

 

Nothing is guaranteed with the top 3 WRs, but in particular MHJ & Odunze look to be as close to those can't miss/high floor prospects there have been in many years.

 

9 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

Josh doesn't "deserve 2 elite weapons." He deserves far more than that. He deserves a team around him that can win a Super Bowl. History shows that you do that with a good roster and that you don't need elite weapons.

 

Teams that play for a Lombardi have at least 1 Elite weapon more often than not.  Look at the 5 most recent Super Bowls.  All 10 teams had 1 or more Elite Weapon.

 

9 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

Another thing Josh deserves is for his team NOT to use a strategy that has worked out and produced SB winners an extremely small percentage of the time. If we had a top ten pick, one of the top three WRs would probably be a good move. Trading major resources away to get into the top ten for a receiver, though, is dumb. Particularly in a year with great depth in talented WRs. It would lower our chances of success.

 

I'll be fine if we stay put or trade down to get one of the other WRs.  One of them might pan out and become Elite.  I think Josh being their QB will help them with that.

 

But trading up and getting one of the Big 3 (Odunze just screams Buffalo to me) sounds more appealing.

 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

20 hours ago, NORWOODS FOOT said:

We’re the Bills. We’re never going to win a Super Bowl.

 

 

I've never read anything more truthful than these sentences on TSW in all the decades I've been here.

[Nihilarian]

17 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

There are WR'S in this draft that can be impact WR's other than the "Big 3".  Cosell said as such. He sees AD Mitchell as one of those guys, along with Thomas Jr., who can become that.  Franklin was considered a stud until the combine.

 

Fans get too damn wrapped up in names and who the media pushes. I still feel we can get an impact guy at 28 or even move down into the early 2nd round and grab one.  There is just no way I would give up anything more than a 2nd next year to move up in the 1st IF even that.

Exactly, I remember that most of this fan base wanted the Bills to trade up to the #2 spot with the NY Giants in 2018 to draft Josh Rosen! How much of a mistake would that have been by giving up the farm for a bum? It could happen at WR too.

 

If this is a such rich WR draft class why feel the need to move up to get one as there are 12 WRs listed in DJ's top 50 players? 

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-s-top-50-2024-nfl-draft-prospect-rankings-2-0

 

While other teams are scrambling to find that elusive franchise QB or pass rusher, or OT. Buffalo could sit tight and get a really good player at 28. OR trade back and pick up that extra 3rd rounder that they lost with the Edmunds moved from a 3rd to a 4th.

 

The Green Bay Packers have made a living out of drafting WRs in the second round. What about Puka Nacua in the 5th last year? 

 

The only position that currently is worrisome to me is the center position by losing Mitch Morse, who called the offensive protections and was a stable force at that position since 2019 and was a pro bowler. 

[SoonerBillsFan]

3 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

Exactly, I remember that most of this fan base wanted the Bills to trade up to the #2 spot with the NY Giants in 2018 to draft Josh Rosen! How much of a mistake would that have been by giving up the farm for a bum? It could happen at WR too.

 

If this is a such rich WR draft class why feel the need to move up to get one as there are 12 WRs listed in DJ's top 50 players? 

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-s-top-50-2024-nfl-draft-prospect-rankings-2-0

 

While other teams are scrambling to find that elusive franchise QB or pass rusher, or OT. Buffalo could sit tight and get a really good player at 28. OR trade back and pick up that extra 3rd rounder that they lost with the Edmunds moved from a 3rd to a 4th.

 

The Green Bay Packers have made a living out of drafting WRs in the second round. What about Puka Nacua in the 5th last year? 

 

The only position that currently is worrisome to me is the center position by losing Mitch Morse, who called the offensive protections and was a stable force at that position since 2019 and was a pro bowler. 

I'm not sweating Center. McGovern has been training for this and is ready.  I do hope we grab a Center to groom just in case day 3 of the draft.

[Malazan]

21 hours ago, BringBackFergy said:

Sweet!!! Another WR thread!!

You're not following TBD Protocol. Please make your own thread about all the WR threads.

[ControllerOfPlanetX]

Just pick a WR and go with it:

 

 

 

[BananaB]

1 or 2 of the top 3 are not gonna big stars. Jmo. Thats why I don’t want Bills to trade up 

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

23 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

I keep reading about Julio Jones and the big trade-up to get him for the QB Matt Ryan led Falcons in 2011. The Falcons didn't even get to an SB until 2016, 5 years after that trade, and even then... they lost to the NE Patriots in that game. The Falcons that SB season also had Devonta Freeman at RB in a balanced offense. 

 

After that trade for Julio Jones, Atlanta lost the WildCard game that season and lost in the conference championship to the 49ers after a 13-3 season.  The Falcons didn't even make the playoffs with WR Julio Jones in 2013-2014-2015 going 4-12, 6-10 and 8-8. 

 

Lots of folks saying that the reason for the declining years was because of the resources spent on that stud WR. And that HC Mike Smith was canned along the way in 2015, the GM a bit later in 2020.

 

Let's look at the team that beat the Falcons in that Super Bowl, the NE Patriots.  Yes, they had Tom Brady at QB all those SB years. But who else did they have? SB in 2001 with WR Troy Brown. The funny thing with that 2001 season was the only 1000-yard season Troy Brown had in his 15 seasons with NE. They also had WR Randy Moss in 2007-2008-2009 and he had 3 1000-yard seasons in NE and yet they made one SB in 2007 only to lose it and didn't make it in the next two seasons with Moss.

 

So, I'm thinking that these stud superstar WRs don't always make a team an SB contender.  Calvin Johnson, 2007 2015. Megatron, he ever make a SB? Larry Fitzgerald for Arizona 2004-2020. He made it to one SB and lost it. Steve Largent, Seattle 1976-1989 with 8, 1000-yard seasons. 

 

I look at the NE Patriots who run the very same offensive scheme as the current Buffalo Bills (Erhardt-Perkins). So what did they do so well that got them to so many SBs and wins? They usually played great defense with Ole Bill as the HC. They moved the chains with Troy Brown, Wess Welker, and Julian Edelman, and when they went to the red zone they had a big TE in Rob Gronkowski. Buffalo has their "chain movers" in Shakir, Knox, and Dalton Kincade. 

 

I somewhat agree here but comparing Matt Ryan to Tom Brady (The best QB in NFL history) is a bad comparison but i also agree that Josh Allen makes everyone around him better (John Brown/Cole Beasley/Stefon Diggs all had career best stats with Allen at QB) so the notion that we have to trade up or even draft a QB at 28 is a bit of a stretch although it would definitely make Allens life easier if that hit on a QB at pick 28 imo. 

[Thrivefourfive]

I’m not digging up the details but Key to Tampa Bay. That WR got them a ring.

 

Owens to Philly. Super Bowl appearance. 
 

Any relativity there? Big time WR going to a new team and the team having instant success. 

[NORWOODS FOOT]

3 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

I've never read anything more truthful than these sentences on TSW in all the decades I've been here.

I bit my tongue and cried after I said it (not really), but it felt true, and I feel free. Finally. (Kinda really)

 

If a miracle happens it will take me by surprise.

Nec spe. Nec metu.

Edited April 12 by NORWOODS FOOT

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

On 4/11/2024 at 8:07 PM, Cray51 said:

I understand what you are trying to say, but every Super Bowl winning team in the last 5 years HAS had a top 10 receiving threat in that season (Kelce, Kupp, Kelce, Evans, Hill)

 

and, no team that has made the Super Bowl in the last 5 seasons has had a little surrounding talent then what the bills have right now without Diggs.

 

the situation is clear.  WR room is lacking talent on this team, and there are 3 high end potential top end #1 WR prospects in this draft.

 

in addition, the concern of not being able to field a strong roster if we mortgage picks to move up is in my opinion a controllable risk.  One of Beane’s best abilities is to utilize several avenues to field NFL capable talent across the field.  One of his big criticisms? Bringing in superstar talent.

 

does Beane moving up for a top end WR guarantee any success?  No, of course not.  But if he does move up does it give us more autonomy in selecting the right WR to potentially put us to the promise land?  Yes it does.

 

we will have to see what happens on draft day 

No one really knows the talent we have since Kincaid and Shakir are so young. You can throw Shorter in there as well. Any of these players can turn into a stud.