Superstar WR? The Big Three

[Cray51]

52 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

This is what I have been saying.  The last 20 years, only one SB team had a WR1 taken in the top 15 picks.  There has never been any team in NFL history to make a huge investment to acquire a WR via trading for a proven one or trading up to draft one and win a SB.  There isn't even a team who signed an expensive one in FA that won a SB.  

 

Making a large investment in a WR via draft picks or free agency spending has a 0% success rate...aka 100% fail rate...in taking a team and getting them over the hump to win a Super Bowl.

 

Look at what Miami paid for Tyreek Hill who has been arguably the best WR in the NFL (him or Jefferson) the past 2 years and Miami can't even win their division with a 4 game lead late in the season and has 0 playoff wins.  Or look at Raiders an Davante Adams.  Even NE when they had Moss actually LOST in the Super Bowl, although they didn't invest a lot to get him.  

 

Now go look at the top 5 WR's in the NFL...more often than not, they are not on teams in the Super Bowl, let alone winning it.  

 

This board has had an unhealthy obsession with WR as if not having the best WR's is the reason we lose.  We lost in 2020 because we were the worst team on the field in that game.  We lost in 2021 because of our defense.  We lost in 2022 because we got dominated in the trenches and couldn't run the ball in bad elements.  We lost in 2023 because we had no Linebackers and KC abused that mismatch and we couldn't even get Mahomes dirty.  

 

We have never been eliminated because we didn't have enough weapons.  Our stable of weapons the last 4 years is better than a lot of Super Bowl winning teams offensive stables.  We had a top 5, arguably top 3, WR for the past 4 seasons and we have lost in the 2nd round 3 straight seasons.  

 

I mean, I want a WR early in this draft too, we all do.  But this notion we must mortgage the farm to go get one has 0 examples of ever working and weakens a cap strapped team from building the overall roster.  I mean next year, we have a first and 2 seconds to keep adding more ammo to this team, and people want to give it away like sticks of gum.  Not to mention, this is maybe the best WR draft in history, even less need to make a major move.  

I understand what you are trying to say, but every Super Bowl winning team in the last 5 years HAS had a top 10 receiving threat in that season (Kelce, Kupp, Kelce, Evans, Hill)

 

and, no team that has made the Super Bowl in the last 5 seasons has had a little surrounding talent then what the bills have right now without Diggs.

 

the situation is clear.  WR room is lacking talent on this team, and there are 3 high end potential top end #1 WR prospects in this draft.

 

in addition, the concern of not being able to field a strong roster if we mortgage picks to move up is in my opinion a controllable risk.  One of Beane’s best abilities is to utilize several avenues to field NFL capable talent across the field.  One of his big criticisms? Bringing in superstar talent.

 

does Beane moving up for a top end WR guarantee any success?  No, of course not.  But if he does move up does it give us more autonomy in selecting the right WR to potentially put us to the promise land?  Yes it does.

 

we will have to see what happens on draft day 

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Not that many, go look for yourself.  

 

And again, I am also talking teams who are good teams making a move to go get a Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins, Stefon Diggs who are top tier WR1 and after all they spent to get them and pay them got ZERO Super Bowls.  Or a team spending big to trade up and get a Julio Jones.  So not, its not a correlation of just bad teams, I am specifically stating teams that have gone and spent big thinking a WR gets them over the hump to ultimately win nothing of importance.  

 

I am happy to be wrong about this, so if you can find even one example of a team that won a Super Bowl after any of the following scenarios, I will glady adjust my 0% success rate and 100% fail rate statements:

• Acquired for top dollar in Free Agency
• Acquired via trade for premium draft capital (like Adams, Hill, Diggs, etc)
• Acquired through an expensive trade up trade in a draft (like a Julio, Watkins, etc)

Find me any example that got a team over the hump to put hardware in their case for going all in on a WR and I will change my tune.  Don't even need multiple examples, just asking for one that maybe I missed, which is possible.  

2017 Eagles signed Alshon Jeffrey to the 5th highest WR contract by AAV in FA.

 

You lose!

[uticaclub]

11 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Losing 2nd or losing 8th is still losing.  Who cares.  I want to win.  

I do too. We can’t find a Kelce so we might as well load up on quality WRs

[Teddy KGB]

1 hour ago, BringBackFergy said:

Sweet!!! Another WR thread!!

you don’t have a fever for more Rome Odunze ? 

[Alphadawg7]

29 minutes ago, Cray51 said:

I understand what you are trying to say, but every Super Bowl winning team in the last 5 years HAS had a top 10 receiving threat in that season (Kelce, Kupp, Kelce, Evans, Hill)

 

Difference though is that those teams had better overall rosters because they didn't blow multiple premium picks and insane cap space to get them.  And Kelce this year was no where near top 5, he was looking shot a chunk of the year and people were surprised he didn't retire.  Not sure Kelce was even top 5 the year before...at his position yes, but he isn't better than 5 of the best receivers in the game.  Evans was not on most peoples top 5 list either, nor was Hill when they won, but easily top 10 so that is splitting hairs much like Kelce. 

 

29 minutes ago, Cray51 said:

 

and, no team that has made the Super Bowl in the last 5 seasons has had a little surrounding talent then what the bills have right now without Diggs.

 

the situation is clear.  WR room is lacking talent on this team, and there are 3 high end potential top end #1 WR prospects in this draft.

 

No one disagrees we need to add a WR, but the talent is rich and deep in this draft.  Next year we have a first and 2 second round picks that could really bolster this team, to give them up sets us back elsewhere.  So the question is, is the cost to do so offset the loss of assets?  And in a draft this good for WR, I don't see it.  

 

Plus...we had a top 5 WR on this team for 4 years straight, arguably top 3 for 2+ of those years and we haven't made it out of 2nd round in 3 straight seasons.  So its pretty clear, top 5 WR is not our missing piece or we would have won a SB already.

 

29 minutes ago, Cray51 said:

 

in addition, the concern of not being able to field a strong roster if we mortgage picks to move up is in my opinion a controllable risk.  One of Beane’s best abilities is to utilize several avenues to field NFL capable talent across the field.  One of his big criticisms? Bringing in superstar talent.

 

does Beane moving up for a top end WR guarantee any success?  No, of course not.  But if he does move up does it give us more autonomy in selecting the right WR to potentially put us to the promise land?  Yes it does.

 

we will have to see what happens on draft day 

 

Im not gonna throw a fit if we move up and get one of the big 3, all of them would be exciting.  But I do not think its a sound investment in a draft that is probably the best WR draft in NFL history.  I would rather keep our picks next year and use our 1st and 2nd on 2 WR's doubling our chances than give up 2 firsts and 2 seconds to get one.  

 

Remember Jeudy, Ruggs, and Lamb draft as the big 3 can't miss guys?  Only one of them panned out and the best WR in that draft was Jefferson and then Higgins until Lamb made a case finally in year 4 to be the 2nd best WR out of tha draft.  No guarantees the big 3 end up being the be best WR's to come out of this draft even.  Tons of high ceiling players in it.

 

23 minutes ago, uticaclub said:

I do too. We can’t find a Kelce so we might as well load up on quality WRs

 

We may have already found a Kelce...you forget about Dalton Kincaid?

Edited April 12 by Alphadawg7

[Cray51]

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Difference though is that those teams had better overall rosters because they didn't blow multiple premium picks and insane cap space to get them.  And Kelce this year was no where near top 5, he was looking shot a chunk of the year and people were surprised he didn't retire.  Not sure Kelce was even top 5 the year before...at his position yes, but he isn't better than 5 of the best receivers in the game.  Evans was not on most peoples top 5 list either, nor was Hill when they won, but easily top 10 so that is splitting hairs much like Kelce. 

 

 

No one disagrees we need to add a WR, but the talent is rich and deep in this draft.  Next year we have a first and 2 second round picks that could really bolster this team, to give them up sets us back elsewhere.  So the question is, is the cost to do so offset the loss of assets?  And in a draft this good for WR, I don't see it.  

 

Plus...we had a top 5 WR on this team for 4 years straight, arguably top 3 for 2+ of those years and we haven't made it out of 2nd round in 3 straight seasons.  So its pretty clear, top 5 WR is not our missing piece or we would have won a SB already.

 

 

Im not gonna throw a fit if we move up and get one of the big 3, all of them would be exciting.  But I do not think it’s a sound investment in a draft that is probably the best WR draft in NFL history.  I would rather keep our picks next year and use our 1st and 2nd on 2 WR's doubling our chances than give up 2 firsts and 2 seconds to get one.  

 

I don’t fault anything you are saying (although I think saying us getting Diggs and not winning clearly shows a top WR isn’t our problem is a bit simplistic).

 

 The Bills still have a top 6 roster in the league.  They carry a top 3 QB, a top 7 RB, top 5 TE room, top 10 O line, top 7 LB core, and top 12 dline.  They need secondary, which McD and Beane have shown to be able to bring in above average talent without investing high draft capital.  Their WR room is bottom 10 in the league right now, and if they bring in a top 3 draft WR they fix a bad spot on their roster.  Along with that, they potentially have a cost controller superstar talent, when as you mentioned they have a potential cap squeeze over the next two/three years.  WRs are becoming the third highest position in football behind QB and Dline.  Getting 5 years of cost controlled #1 WR play?  I think if Beane believes he can get it, he will go for it

[Chicken Boo]

There is no 1 way to success. 

 

So now the Bills are going to copy the Patriots with a bunch of JAGs at wide receiver and dink and dunk all over the field?

 

Why are fans so opposed to giving Allen the weapons he needs?    

 

In the same way Josh isn't going to carry this team on his back to a Super Bowl, the Bills aren't going to "moneyball" their way there either.  

 

Think '89/'94 49ers, '93 Cowboys, '21 Buccaneers.  Loaded with talent, with the right guy at QB.  That's how they get it done.  

Edited April 12 by Chicken Boo

[Rigotz]

You can do this with any position.

 

”You don’t need a superstar LT to win a Super Bowl”

 

”You don’t need a superstar DE to win a Super Bowl”

 

You generally need a great QB. All other positions don’t dictate your future.

 

But franchise WRs, LTs, CBs, DEs, etc make it easier. They’re the second tier of most important positions.

[LABILLBACKER]

As tempting as it is to give a kings ranson for MHJ, Nabers or Odunze, I'd much rather watch Beane be wise and prudent letting the remaining very good wrs come to 28. We will very soon need a better pass rusher, C and safety.  I'm all for drafting wrs in the first 2 rounds. But a Julio Jones scenario would be foolish.  Even Sammy would agree.

[90sBills]

16 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

There is no 1 way to success. 

 

So now the Bills are going to copy the Patriots with a bunch of JAGs at wide receiver and dink and dunk all over the field?

 

Why are fans so opposed to giving Allen the weapons he needs?    

It worked for KC. When your superstar qb gets paid the largest chunk of cap space this is the way. That superstar qb has to elevate his to maximize their potential. Mahomes did it. Allen can too. 

[The Jokeman]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

This is what I have been saying.  The last 20 years, only one SB team had a WR1 taken in the top 15 picks.  There has never been any team in NFL history to make a huge investment to acquire a WR via trading for a proven one or trading up to draft one and win a SB.  There isn't even a team who signed an expensive one in FA that won a SB.  

 

Making a large investment in a WR via draft picks or free agency spending has a 0% success rate...aka 100% fail rate...in taking a team and getting them over the hump to win a Super Bowl.

 

Look at what Miami paid for Tyreek Hill who has been arguably the best WR in the NFL (him or Jefferson) the past 2 years and Miami can't even win their division with a 4 game lead late in the season and has 0 playoff wins.  Or look at Raiders an Davante Adams.  Even NE when they had Moss actually LOST in the Super Bowl, although they didn't invest a lot to get him.  

 

Now go look at the top 5 WR's in the NFL...more often than not, they are not on teams in the Super Bowl, let alone winning it.  

 

This board has had an unhealthy obsession with WR as if not having the best WR's is the reason we lose.  We lost in 2020 because we were the worst team on the field in that game.  We lost in 2021 because of our defense.  We lost in 2022 because we got dominated in the trenches and couldn't run the ball in bad elements.  We lost in 2023 because we had no Linebackers and KC abused that mismatch and we couldn't even get Mahomes dirty.  

 

We have never been eliminated because we didn't have enough weapons.  Our stable of weapons the last 4 years is better than a lot of Super Bowl winning teams offensive stables.  We had a top 5, arguably top 3, WR for the past 4 seasons and we have lost in the 2nd round 3 straight seasons.  

 

I mean, I want a WR early in this draft too, we all do.  But this notion we must mortgage the farm to go get one has 0 examples of ever working and weakens a cap strapped team from building the overall roster.  I mean next year, we have a first and 2 seconds to keep adding more ammo to this team, and people want to give it away like sticks of gum.  Not to mention, this is maybe the best WR draft in history, even less need to make a major move.  

I could debate the 49ers traded up in 1985 to get Jerry Rice, granted they were the defending Super Bowl champs. Yet he definitely helped them win 3 Super Bowls. Yet I agree I'm not one that feels we have to trade up. The reason people are clamoring for this draft at appears to have not just the top 3 guys and question marks but you can still get an above average WR if get the 6th or 7th guy off the board. 

[Thrivefourfive]

1 hour ago, Chicken Boo said:

There is no 1 way to success. 

 

So now the Bills are going to copy the Patriots with a bunch of JAGs at wide receiver and dink and dunk all over the field?

 

Why are fans so opposed to giving Allen the weapons he needs?    

 

In the same way Josh isn't going to carry this team on his back to a Super Bowl, the Bills aren't going to "moneyball" their way there either.  

 

Think '89/'94 49ers, '93 Cowboys, '21 Buccaneers.  Loaded with talent, with the right guy at QB.  That's how they get it done.  

21 Tompa Bays. Now that was a receiving core. 

[billsfan_34]

2 hours ago, njbuff said:

Well, just my opinion.

 

I think it is Josh Allen's time to take over the reigns of this team and to me, he doesn't need elite weapons. He simply needs receivers who can hang onto the balls most importantly.

 

Also of importance is being able to fill out the roster. The Bills need depth at almost every position, with starting potential, and the best way to do that is to trade down and acquire multiple picks, ala what SF did in the 1986 draft (look up that draft to see what I mean).

 

Beane's a big baller though and I wouldn't be surprised if he is in love with getting his hands on Nabers, MHJ or Odunze for Josh Allen. 

I would much rather give Allen some weapons. This is not to say we don't need depth, but there will be a top WR when we pick. I just cannot see us not addressing this need early in the draft and not giving JA some tools to accompany Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid, and Cook. Right now, this is it, and not how I would like to go into the season.

[Thrivefourfive]

The Bills have a ton of picks this year, and their R1, R2, etc. An extra R2 next year (probably a good one). With cap space next year, and the need to bring in top cheap talent via draft this year.

 

Don’t all signs point to trading up in the 2024 R1..?

[NoSaint]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

And both lost.  

At this point, let’s lose the Super Bowl instead of the divisional 

 

jokes aside, the idea that the falcons somehow didn’t get great value securing Julio is silly. That the OP points to it as a reason they went 4-12 one season is laughable. How many wins does he think an extra 1 and 2 would’ve resulted in?

 

 

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Not that many, go look for yourself.  

 

And again, I am also talking teams who are good teams making a move to go get a Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins, Stefon Diggs who are top tier WR1 and after all they spent to get them and pay them got ZERO Super Bowls.  Or a team spending big to trade up and get a Julio Jones.  So not, its not a correlation of just bad teams, I am specifically stating teams that have gone and spent big thinking a WR gets them over the hump to ultimately win nothing of importance.  

 

I am happy to be wrong about this, so if you can find even one example of a team that won a Super Bowl after any of the following scenarios, I will glady adjust my 0% success rate and 100% fail rate statements:

• Acquired for top dollar in Free Agency
• Acquired via trade for premium draft capital (like Adams, Hill, Diggs, etc)
• Acquired through an expensive trade up trade in a draft (like a Julio, Watkins, etc)

Find me any example that got a team over the hump to put hardware in their case for going all in on a WR and I will change my tune.  Don't even need multiple examples, just asking for one that maybe I missed, which is possible.  

If looking at key threads through the last 20 years you must be in on this news that Brady would consider playing. 
 

that he and mahomes had elite TEs, and had moss and tyreek as late round grabs doesn’t make me feel like getting a moss or tyreek early in the draft would ruin us. 

[NoSaint]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Difference though is that those teams had better overall rosters because they didn't blow multiple premium picks and insane cap space to get them.  And Kelce this year was no where near top 5, he was looking shot a chunk of the year and people were surprised he didn't retire.  Not sure Kelce was even top 5 the year before...at his position yes, but he isn't better than 5 of the best receivers in the game.  Evans was not on most peoples top 5 list either, nor was Hill when they won, but easily top 10 so that is splitting hairs much like Kelce. 

 

 

No one disagrees we need to add a WR, but the talent is rich and deep in this draft.  Next year we have a first and 2 second round picks that could really bolster this team, to give them up sets us back elsewhere.  So the question is, is the cost to do so offset the loss of assets?  And in a draft this good for WR, I don't see it.  

 

Plus...we had a top 5 WR on this team for 4 years straight, arguably top 3 for 2+ of those years and we haven't made it out of 2nd round in 3 straight seasons.  So its pretty clear, top 5 WR is not our missing piece or we would have won a SB already.

 

 

Im not gonna throw a fit if we move up and get one of the big 3, all of them would be exciting.  But I do not think its a sound investment in a draft that is probably the best WR draft in NFL history.  I would rather keep our picks next year and use our 1st and 2nd on 2 WR's doubling our chances than give up 2 firsts and 2 seconds to get one.  

 

Remember Jeudy, Ruggs, and Lamb draft as the big 3 can't miss guys?  Only one of them panned out and the best WR in that draft was Jefferson and then Higgins until Lamb made a case finally in year 4 to be the 2nd best WR out of tha draft.  No guarantees the big 3 end up being the be best WR's to come out of this draft even.  Tons of high ceiling players in it.

 

 

We may have already found a Kelce...you forget about Dalton Kincaid?

I remember jeudy ruggs and lamb as the best in that class. I do not recall them being considered generational prospects. We are talking picks 12, 15 and 17. 

[Alphadawg7]

47 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

I could debate the 49ers traded up in 1985 to get Jerry Rice, granted they were the defending Super Bowl champs. Yet he definitely helped them win 3 Super Bowls. Yet I agree I'm not one that feels we have to trade up. The reason people are clamoring for this draft at appears to have not just the top 3 guys and question marks but you can still get an above average WR if get the 6th or 7th guy off the board. 

 

Good find, and I am aware of this one, but its not really an example for a couple reasons, one of which you already stated.

• As you already said, they were already Super Bowl champions, he was a luxury add to a SB Championship team, not a missing piece.
• All the Niners netted in the trade was a loss of one 2nd round pick.  The other compensation was just a swap of third rounders, so slight trade down.  It doesn't meet the multiple premium picks criteria.  

But yes, he was a cornerstone moving forward, but those Fortyniner teams were stacked on both sides of the ball including what for periods of time were considered the GOAT at QB, WR, and S and a bunch of all time greats on both sides of the ball.  

 

However, a more relevant SF example is when 10 years later Bill Walsh and the Niners traded up to number 10 to draft JJ Stokes, calling him "the next Jerry Rice" and traded away 2 firsts, a 3rd and a 4th rounder to do so just for him to be a bust.  In fact, the actual heir to Rice would be none other than Terrell Owens who they acquired in the 3rd round the very next draft without having to trade anything to get him.

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, NoSaint said:

I remember jeudy ruggs and lamb as the best in that class. I do not recall them being considered generational prospects. We are talking picks 12, 15 and 17. 

 

How many Super Bowls did generational talents of Moss, Megatron, Fitzgerald, and Julio win?  

 

And in that draft, Jeudy, Lambn, and Ruggs  were considered some of the best WR's to come out in a while and that was considered one of the best WR drafts heading into it in recent times with them being in a class of their own.  More importantly, people wanted to mortgage a ton of picks to go get one, even more than we paid for Diggs...which would have been a mistake when none of them were as good as the guys still on the board at our original pick nor as good as Diggs was for us the past 4 years.

 

Tond Mandarich was considered maybe the greatest prospect of all time of almost any position like he was destined for the HOF.  He was not that in the NFL. I can think of a long list of "generational" talents in drafts that either went on to have solid, mediocre, or flat out bust careers.  It isn't a sure thing.  

[SoonerBillsFan]

There are WR'S in this draft that can be impact WR's other than the "Big 3".  Cosell said as such. He sees AD Mitchell as one of those guys, along with Thomas Jr., who can become that.  Franklin was considered a stud until the combine.

 

Fans get too damn wrapped up in names and who the media pushes. I still feel we can get an impact guy at 28 or even move down into the early 2nd round and grab one.  There is just no way I would give up anything more than a 2nd next year to move up in the 1st IF even that.

[Dr. Who]

2 hours ago, Cray51 said:

I don’t fault anything you are saying (although I think saying us getting Diggs and not winning clearly shows a top WR isn’t our problem is a bit simplistic).

 

 The Bills still have a top 6 roster in the league.  They carry a top 3 QB, a top 7 RB, top 5 TE room, top 10 O line, top 7 LB core, and top 12 dline.  They need secondary, which McD and Beane have shown to be able to bring in above average talent without investing high draft capital.  Their WR room is bottom 10 in the league right now, and if they bring in a top 3 draft WR they fix a bad spot on their roster.  Along with that, they potentially have a cost controller superstar talent, when as you mentioned they have a potential cap squeeze over the next two/three years.  WRs are becoming the third highest position in football behind QB and Dline.  Getting 5 years of cost controlled #1 WR play?  I think if Beane believes he can get it, he will go for it

I generally favor trying to get 2 WRs early, one at #28 and trading up from #60. I like McConkey and think he will be a high volume receiver right out of the box, so to speak. Then I'd like to end up with Legette or Mitchell. I would be willing to part with a 2025 second to accomplish that. I'd rather not pay the price for a top 3.

 

Your argument is a compelling one, so long as you hit on the WR. You're in a world of hurt if you get it wrong, and some folks might not want to take that risk. I do think the top 3, barring the unforeseen mishap or unknown data we are unaware of, look to be high floor players who also have high ceilings.

 

I could be totally wrong on this, but I do have a feeling Beane wouldn't have traded Diggs without a tangible plan. Maybe it was something so bad in the locker room, he had to make the trade, I dunno. I think it's at least 50/50 he goes big, and tries to get a top tier WR.

Edited April 12 by Dr. Who