Superstar WR? The Big Three

[Nihilarian]

I keep reading about Julio Jones and the big trade-up to get him for the QB Matt Ryan led Falcons in 2011. The Falcons didn't even get to an SB until 2016, 5 years after that trade, and even then... they lost to the NE Patriots in that game. The Falcons that SB season also had Devonta Freeman at RB in a balanced offense. 

 

After that trade for Julio Jones, Atlanta lost the WildCard game that season and lost in the conference championship to the 49ers after a 13-3 season.  The Falcons didn't even make the playoffs with WR Julio Jones in 2013-2014-2015 going 4-12, 6-10 and 8-8. 

 

Lots of folks saying that the reason for the declining years was because of the resources spent on that stud WR. And that HC Mike Smith was canned along the way in 2015, the GM a bit later in 2020.

 

Let's look at the team that beat the Falcons in that Super Bowl, the NE Patriots.  Yes, they had Tom Brady at QB all those SB years. But who else did they have? SB in 2001 with WR Troy Brown. The funny thing with that 2001 season was the only 1000-yard season Troy Brown had in his 15 seasons with NE. They also had WR Randy Moss in 2007-2008-2009 and he had 3 1000-yard seasons in NE and yet they made one SB in 2007 only to lose it and didn't make it in the next two seasons with Moss.

 

So, I'm thinking that these stud superstar WRs don't always make a team an SB contender.  Calvin Johnson, 2007 2015. Megatron, he ever make a SB? Larry Fitzgerald for Arizona 2004-2020. He made it to one SB and lost it. Steve Largent, Seattle 1976-1989 with 8, 1000-yard seasons. 

 

I look at the NE Patriots who run the very same offensive scheme as the current Buffalo Bills (Erhardt-Perkins). So what did they do so well that got them to so many SBs and wins? They usually played great defense with Ole Bill as the HC. They moved the chains with Troy Brown, Wess Welker, and Julian Edelman, and when they went to the red zone they had a big TE in Rob Gronkowski. Buffalo has their "chain movers" in Shakir, Knox, and Dalton Kincade. 

[uticaclub]

I think 9ers & Eagles both had elite WRs the last 2 years

[Alphadawg7]

2 minutes ago, uticaclub said:

I think 9ers & Eagles both had elite WRs the last 2 years

 

And both lost.  

[njbuff]

Well, just my opinion.

 

I think it is Josh Allen's time to take over the reigns of this team and to me, he doesn't need elite weapons. He simply needs receivers who can hang onto the balls most importantly.

 

Also of importance is being able to fill out the roster. The Bills need depth at almost every position, with starting potential, and the best way to do that is to trade down and acquire multiple picks, ala what SF did in the 1986 draft (look up that draft to see what I mean).

 

Beane's a big baller though and I wouldn't be surprised if he is in love with getting his hands on Nabers, MHJ or Odunze for Josh Allen. 

[Alphadawg7]

4 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

I keep reading about Julio Jones and the big trade-up to get him for the QB Matt Ryan led Falcons in 2011. The Falcons didn't even get to an SB until 2016, 5 years after that trade, and even then... they lost to the NE Patriots in that game. The Falcons that SB season also had Devonta Freeman at RB in a balanced offense. 

 

After that trade for Julio Jones, Atlanta lost the WildCard game that season and lost in the conference championship to the 49ers after a 13-3 season.  The Falcons didn't even make the playoffs with WR Julio Jones in 2013-2014-2015 going 4-12, 6-10 and 8-8. 

 

Lots of folks saying that the reason for the declining years was because of the resources spent on that stud WR. And that HC Mike Smith was canned along the way in 2015, the GM a bit later in 2020.

 

Let's look at the team that beat the Falcons in that Super Bowl, the NE Patriots.  Yes, they had Tom Brady at QB all those SB years. But who else did they have? SB in 2001 with WR Troy Brown. The funny thing with that 2001 season was the only 1000-yard season Troy Brown had in his 15 seasons with NE. They also had WR Randy Moss in 2007-2008-2009 and he had 3 1000-yard seasons in NE and yet they made one SB in 2007 only to lose it and didn't make it in the next two seasons with Moss.

 

So, I'm thinking that these stud superstar WRs don't always make a team an SB contender.  Calvin Johnson, 2007 2015. Megatron, he ever make a SB? Larry Fitzgerald for Arizona 2004-2020. He made it to one SB and lost it. Steve Largent, Seattle 1976-1989 with 8, 1000-yard seasons. 

 

I look at the NE Patriots who run the very same offensive scheme as the current Buffalo Bills (Erhardt-Perkins). So what did they do so well that got them to so many SBs and wins? They usually played great defense with Ole Bill as the HC. They moved the chains with Troy Brown, Wess Welker, and Julian Edelman, and when they went to the red zone they had a big TE in Rob Gronkowski. Buffalo has their "chain movers" in Shakir, Knox, and Dalton Kincade. 

 

This is what I have been saying.  The last 20 years, only one SB team had a WR1 taken in the top 15 picks.  There has never been any team in NFL history to make a huge investment to acquire a WR via trading for a proven one or trading up to draft one and win a SB.  There isn't even a team who signed an expensive one in FA that won a SB.  

 

Making a large investment in a WR via draft picks or free agency spending has a 0% success rate...aka 100% fail rate...in taking a team and getting them over the hump to win a Super Bowl.

 

Look at what Miami paid for Tyreek Hill who has been arguably the best WR in the NFL (him or Jefferson) the past 2 years and Miami can't even win their division with a 4 game lead late in the season and has 0 playoff wins.  Or look at Raiders an Davante Adams.  Even NE when they had Moss actually LOST in the Super Bowl, although they didn't invest a lot to get him.  

 

Now go look at the top 5 WR's in the NFL...more often than not, they are not on teams in the Super Bowl, let alone winning it.  

 

This board has had an unhealthy obsession with WR as if not having the best WR's is the reason we lose.  We lost in 2020 because we were the worst team on the field in that game.  We lost in 2021 because of our defense.  We lost in 2022 because we got dominated in the trenches and couldn't run the ball in bad elements.  We lost in 2023 because we had no Linebackers and KC abused that mismatch and we couldn't even get Mahomes dirty.  

 

We have never been eliminated because we didn't have enough weapons.  Our stable of weapons the last 4 years is better than a lot of Super Bowl winning teams offensive stables.  We had a top 5, arguably top 3, WR for the past 4 seasons and we have lost in the 2nd round 3 straight seasons.  

 

I mean, I want a WR early in this draft too, we all do.  But this notion we must mortgage the farm to go get one has 0 examples of ever working and weakens a cap strapped team from building the overall roster.  I mean next year, we have a first and 2 seconds to keep adding more ammo to this team, and people want to give it away like sticks of gum.  Not to mention, this is maybe the best WR draft in history, even less need to make a major move.  

[BringBackFergy]

Sweet!!! Another WR thread!!

[Mikie2times]

[Don Otreply]

It the old US hockey team story, 

 

we don’t necessarily need the “best “ players, but we do damn well need the “right” players, 

 

imo, we are up to our ears in slot style receivers with two that can play “some boundary”, we do not have true boundary guys that can “as needed” stretch / take the top off a defense, and still run at least a near full route tree, those are the guys we need, I don’t care what their names are or what schools they come from, but those are the guys we need…, the question is can we get these guys without giving up picks we need later for our depth needs, again, jmo. 

[uticaclub]

39 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

And both lost.  

But they got to the Super Bowl; we had a one conference championship appearance with Diggs, Beasley, Brown & Sanders

[Mikie2times]

The last 5 super bowls had the following #1 receiving options. In addition to that in most cases these teams had another option that was pretty damn good as well.  

 

2023: Travis Kelse vs Brandon Aiyuk

2022: Travis Kelse vs AJ Brown

2021: Cooper Kupp vs Ja'Marr Chase

2020: Mike Evans vs Travis Kelse

2019: Travis Kelse vs George Kittle 

 

Just because New England was able to do it a certain way doesn't make it a model for everybody else. Even in the 5 years since the last New England Super Bowl the game has changed even more. Other examples you give such as Megatron (horrific team) Moss (major reason for undefeated season), Julio Jones (should have won the Super Bowl) don't add up to don't focus on WR.

 

If anything this thread tells me the Super Bowl has multiple paths for different teams. Currently we don't have a dominating unit. That could change with some positive play but that's where it stands right now. We have Allen and a lot of pieces that could come together.  With that we don't have a pass catcher on our roster who has ever achieved a 1000 yard season in his career. So yes, as much as you can argue WR isn't an essential piece to the equation for many teams it is for us right now. Currently our most essential piece has no weapons and that statement would also be true for the future years unless we see Kinkaid or Shakir really take off. Very possible, but you land your insurance piece in the draft and thats how you become one of the teams above with your main pass catcher being a star with secondary options being guys like Deboo Samuel, Tyreek Hill, Tee Higgins, Chris Godwin, DeVonta Smith, etc

 

[BeastMaster]

42 minutes ago, uticaclub said:

I think 9ers & Eagles both had elite WRs the last 2 years

They didn't move up in the draft and devote major ammo to land those receivers, and only AJ Brown is elite

 

The OP's point is that making a Julio Jones type deal to move up for a receiver doesn't equate to championships, and I would agree.

 

We have an elite QB in his prime on a massive contract. This team has to build its roster through the draft to keep contending

[NORWOODS FOOT]

We’re the Bills. We’re never going to win a Super Bowl. Might as well get Marvin Harrison Jr. and enjoy the show…

 

 

 

 

 

😛
 

 

Overall really good post. That said, I still hope they get Josh a few more weapons wherever they choose to draft them.

Edited April 11 by NORWOODS FOOT

[LeGOATski]

Stay at 28 or make a modest trade up to get your guy. Those are the two realistic options. They'll be fine.

[Mr. WEO]

How many 1st downs from Knox Kincaid and Shakir last year compared to how many they lost via Diggs and Davis?

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Nihilarian said:

I keep reading about Julio Jones and the big trade-up to get him for the QB Matt Ryan led Falcons in 2011. The Falcons didn't even get to an SB until 2016, 5 years after that trade, and even then... they lost to the NE Patriots in that game. The Falcons that SB season also had Devonta Freeman at RB in a balanced offense. 

 

After that trade for Julio Jones, Atlanta lost the WildCard game that season and lost in the conference championship to the 49ers after a 13-3 season.  The Falcons didn't even make the playoffs with WR Julio Jones in 2013-2014-2015 going 4-12, 6-10 and 8-8. 

 

Lots of folks saying that the reason for the declining years was because of the resources spent on that stud WR. And that HC Mike Smith was canned along the way in 2015, the GM a bit later in 2020.

 

Let's look at the team that beat the Falcons in that Super Bowl, the NE Patriots.  Yes, they had Tom Brady at QB all those SB years. But who else did they have? SB in 2001 with WR Troy Brown. The funny thing with that 2001 season was the only 1000-yard season Troy Brown had in his 15 seasons with NE. They also had WR Randy Moss in 2007-2008-2009 and he had 3 1000-yard seasons in NE and yet they made one SB in 2007 only to lose it and didn't make it in the next two seasons with Moss.

 

So, I'm thinking that these stud superstar WRs don't always make a team an SB contender.  Calvin Johnson, 2007 2015. Megatron, he ever make a SB? Larry Fitzgerald for Arizona 2004-2020. He made it to one SB and lost it. Steve Largent, Seattle 1976-1989 with 8, 1000-yard seasons. 

 

I look at the NE Patriots who run the very same offensive scheme as the current Buffalo Bills (Erhardt-Perkins). So what did they do so well that got them to so many SBs and wins? They usually played great defense with Ole Bill as the HC. They moved the chains with Troy Brown, Wess Welker, and Julian Edelman, and when they went to the red zone they had a big TE in Rob Gronkowski. Buffalo has their "chain movers" in Shakir, Knox, and Dalton Kincade. 

Do you think the Falcons lost because they had Julio Jones?

 

Do you think the 2007 Pats lost because they had Randy Moss?

[FireChans]

51 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

This is what I have been saying.  The last 20 years, only one SB team had a WR1 taken in the top 15 picks.  There has never been any team in NFL history to make a huge investment to acquire a WR via trading for a proven one or trading up to draft one and win a SB.  There isn't even a team who signed an expensive one in FA that won a SB.  

 

Making a large investment in a WR via draft picks or free agency spending has a 0% success rate...aka 100% fail rate...in taking a team and getting them over the hump to win a Super Bowl.

 

Look at what Miami paid for Tyreek Hill who has been arguably the best WR in the NFL (him or Jefferson) the past 2 years and Miami can't even win their division with a 4 game lead late in the season and has 0 playoff wins.  Or look at Raiders an Davante Adams.  Even NE when they had Moss actually LOST in the Super Bowl, although they didn't invest a lot to get him.  

 

Now go look at the top 5 WR's in the NFL...more often than not, they are not on teams in the Super Bowl, let alone winning it.  

 

This board has had an unhealthy obsession with WR as if not having the best WR's is the reason we lose.  We lost in 2020 because we were the worst team on the field in that game.  We lost in 2021 because of our defense.  We lost in 2022 because we got dominated in the trenches and couldn't run the ball in bad elements.  We lost in 2023 because we had no Linebackers and KC abused that mismatch and we couldn't even get Mahomes dirty.  

 

We have never been eliminated because we didn't have enough weapons.  Our stable of weapons the last 4 years is better than a lot of Super Bowl winning teams offensive stables.  We had a top 5, arguably top 3, WR for the past 4 seasons and we have lost in the 2nd round 3 straight seasons.  

 

I mean, I want a WR early in this draft too, we all do.  But this notion we must mortgage the farm to go get one has 0 examples of ever working and weakens a cap strapped team from building the overall roster.  I mean next year, we have a first and 2 seconds to keep adding more ammo to this team, and people want to give it away like sticks of gum.  Not to mention, this is maybe the best WR draft in history, even less need to make a major move.  

How many WR’s drafted in picks 15 -32 have made the Super Bowl?

 

do you think there’s any correlation between players drafted by playoff or fringe playing teams and eventually making a Super Bowl vs players drafted by a crappy team not making it?

[Alphadawg7]

25 minutes ago, uticaclub said:

But they got to the Super Bowl; we had a one conference championship appearance with Diggs, Beasley, Brown & Sanders

 

Losing 2nd or losing 8th is still losing.  Who cares.  I want to win.  

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Nihilarian said:

Lots of folks saying that the reason for the declining years was because of the resources spent on that stud WR

also, a very funny comment considering the Browns drafted dynamos such as:

 

DT Phil Taylor, fullback Owen Marecic, and quarterback Brandon Weeden. They packaged on of the picks in 2012 to trade up for Trent Richardson.

[Alphadawg7]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

How many WR’s drafted in picks 15 -32 have made the Super Bowl?

 

do you think there’s any correlation between players drafted by playoff or fringe playing teams and eventually making a Super Bowl vs players drafted by a crappy team not making it?

 

Not that many, go look for yourself.  

 

And again, I am also talking teams who are good teams making a move to go get a Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins, Stefon Diggs who are top tier WR1 and after all they spent to get them and pay them got ZERO Super Bowls.  Or a team spending big to trade up and get a Julio Jones.  So not, its not a correlation of just bad teams, I am specifically stating teams that have gone and spent big thinking a WR gets them over the hump to ultimately win nothing of importance.  

 

I am happy to be wrong about this, so if you can find even one example of a team that won a Super Bowl after any of the following scenarios, I will glady adjust my 0% success rate and 100% fail rate statements:

• Acquired for top dollar in Free Agency
• Acquired via trade for premium draft capital (like Adams, Hill, Diggs, etc)
• Acquired through an expensive trade up trade in a draft (like a Julio, Watkins, etc)

Find me any example that got a team over the hump to put hardware in their case for going all in on a WR and I will change my tune.  Don't even need multiple examples, just asking for one that maybe I missed, which is possible.  

[Aussie Joe]

19 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

Stay at 28 or make a modest trade up to get your guy. Those are the two realistic options. They'll be fine.

Yeah … this has been a crazy offseason to date …. But I’ll be very surprised if Beane pays the price to move up into the Top 10