1st vs 2nd Round WR Hit Rate

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

14 hours ago, Augie said:

So…….it’s almost hopeless.  Great!  😂 

 

Haha. My thoughts too! 39% and 18% chances respectively. Screw it. Let's just draft a Safety at #28 and DT at #60.

[Bruffalo]

33 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Haha. My thoughts too! 39% and 18% chances respectively. Screw it. Let's just draft a Safety at #28 and DT at #60.

I'm not going to run the numbers, but my gut tells me the hit rates for those positions are probably similar. 

 

The draft is a crapshoot that we pretend to a genuine understanding of.  There are way fewer "sure things" then there are players. 

[nosejob]

It's kinda hard for me to really wrap my head around that list while seeing several names that could probably have asterisks if they had better QBs.

[Prospector]

15 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

There are a few names on the failures list that a lot of posters here have banged the table for at the time …

[Big Turk]

Now do 3rd, 4th and 5th rounds

Calvin Ridley is not a ++ player? The man put up almost 1400 yards one season? 1000 yards last year...he is a very good receiver

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

15 hours ago, Rigotz said:

I've heard a lot of Bills talking heads raving about 2nd round WR success -- Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, etc.

 

It's a hot topic with the podcasting community as everyone seems to be laser focused at WR in round 1 or 2.

 

So, I was curious to research the hit rate of WR in 1st round vs 2nd round the past several years. The results might surprise you.

 

I marked "++" for plus starters each year, which I would define as a top 32 wideout. The past 2 seasons are TBD, so I started in 2021.

 

Totals:

11 out of 28 first round picks ended up being plus starters (39%).

6 out of 33 second round picks ended up being plus starters (18%).

 

2021:

1st Round

Ja'Marr Chase ++

Jaylen Waddle ++

DeVonta Smith ++

Kadarius Toney

Rashod Bateman

 

2nd Round

Elijah Moore

Rondale Moore

D'Wayne Eskridge

Tutu Atwell

Terrace Marshall Jr

 

2020:

1st Round

Henry Ruggs

Jerry Jeudy

CeeDee Lamb ++

Jalen Reagor

Justin Jefferson ++

Brandon Aiyuk ++

2nd Round

Tee Higgins ++

Michael Pittman ++

Laviska Shenault

KJ Hamler

Chase Claypool

Van Jefferson

Denzel Mims

 

2019:

1st Round

Marquise Brown

N'Keal Harry

2nd Round

Deebo Samuel ++

AJ Brown ++

Mecole Hardman

JJ Arcega-Whiteside

Parris Campbell

Andy Isabella

DK Metcalf ++

 

2018:

1st Round:

DJ Moore ++

Calvin Ridley

2nd Round:

Courtland Sutton

Dante Pettis

Christian Kirk

Anthony MIller

James Washintgon

DJ Chark

 

2017:

1st Round:

Corey Davis

Mike Williams ++

John Ross

2nd Round:

Zay Jones

Curtis Samuel

JuJu Smith-Schuster

 

2016:

1st Round:

Corey Coleman

Will Fuller

Josh Doctson

Laquon Treadwell

2nd Round:

Sterling Shepard

Michael Thomas +?

Tyler Boyd

 

2015:

1st Round:

Amari Cooper ++

Kevin White

DeVante Parker

Nelson Agholor

Breshad Perriman

Phillip Dorsett

2nd Round:

Devin Smith

Dorial Green-Beckham

 

So ... when you hear the talking heads describing 1st and 2nd round as both being a hot bed for WR talent historically, this is just recency bias due to a few good players coming from the 2020 and 2019 first and second round. There have been been A LOT of JAGs mixed in as well... but maybe they forgot. Hope you enjoy the analysis.

 

I mean... the 2nd round is usually where teams have drafted traits over production and fit.  You also see a lot of slot WRs go in the 2-3 range (Boyd, Samuel, Shepard, Juju, Kirk, Moore x2, and a bunch of other slot WR misses on the list above).  

 

Thomas has been derailed by injury but... he won OPOY and holds the record for most catches in a season at 149 (which he did in 16 games).  

 

Other thing to take into account  - there are a bunch of hits outside of the top 60.  
 

2021 - Amon-ra St. Brown, Nico Collins

2020 - Gabe Davis

2019 - Diontae Johnson, Terry McLaurin, Renfrow, Slayton

2018 - Gallup

2017 - Kupp, Godwin

2016 - Tyreek

2015 - Diggs, Lockett, Crowder

 

 

9 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Now do 3rd, 4th and 5th rounds

Calvin Ridley is not a ++ player? The man put up almost 1400 yards one season? 1000 yards last year...he is a very good receiver

 

Yeah - i feel sort of similarly to Kirk.  He was behind Hopkins and Fitz, but he's been very good for the jaguars.  

[GunnerBill]

15 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

There are a few names on the failures list that a lot of posters here have banged the table for at the time …

 

I've had a quick look at who were my top guys available to the Bills at their first pick of the draft since I've been doing it (based on where they actually picked, of course some years they could have considered trade ups) and I did bang the table for a few of these guys at the time.... Evans, Higgins and Marshall in particular.

 

2021 - Terrace Marshall (was my WR4 top 3 had gone before the Bills picked)

2020 - Tee Higgins (was my WR4 top 3 had gone before the Bills picked)

2019 - AJ Brown (was my WR1)

2018 - Calvin Ridley (was my WR1 but the guy I liked for the Bills was my WR2 Courtland Sutton)

2017 - Chris Godwin (was my WR4 but the guy I liked for the Bills was my WR5.... a fella called Zay Jones)

2016 - Laquon Treadwell (was my WR1 but that was a bad receiver class I didn't have any first round grades at the position and was anti-selecting one)

2015 - Tyler Lockett (was my WR6 top 5 had gone before the Bills picked because we had no first round pick)

2014 - Mike Evans (was my WR1 and the guy I banged the table for)

 

[Big Turk]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I've had a quick look at who were my top guys available to the Bills at their first pick of the draft since I've been doing it (based on where they actually picked, of course some years they could have considered trade ups) and I did bang the table for a few of these guys at the time.... Evans, Higgins and Marshall in particular.

 

2021 - Terrace Marshall (was my WR4 top 3 had gone before the Bills picked)

2020 - Tee Higgins (was my WR4 top 3 had gone before the Bills picked)

2019 - AJ Brown (was my WR1)

2018 - Calvin Ridley (was my WR1 but the guy I liked for the Bills was my WR2 Courtland Sutton)

2017 - Chris Godwin (was my WR4 but the guy I liked for the Bills was my WR5.... a fella called Zay Jones)

2016 - Laquon Treadwell (was my WR1 but that was a bad receiver class I didn't have any first round grades at the position and was anti-selecting one)

2015 - Tyler Lockett (was my WR6 top 5 had gone before the Bills picked because we had no first round pick)

2014 - Mike Evans (was my WR1 and the guy I banged the table for)

 

 

If the Bills would have taken any of those 3 outside Marshall and Treadwell, they would have been absolutely loaded at WR

[msw2112]

My takeaway from this is that while the odds of hitting on a drafted WR are slightly higher in the 1st round than the 2nd round, there are more busts and so-so guys than hits.  That's why I believe the Bills should not surrender a king's ransom to trade up for a guy who might or might not pan out.  Even if the guy is great, what if he tears his ACL in mini-camp and is lost for the season?  Now you have lost that player, and a ton of other draft picks too.  Given that it's a deep draft for WR, take the best available at 28 (or trade back a little bit if that makes sense) and then draft another one later in the draft.  If there's a guy they REALLY like who falls a bit, and they can make a small trade-up like they did for Elam and Kincaid, that's fine, move up and get that guy.

 

The other thing to consider is who these WRs played with in college.  Were they paired with a great QB?  Were they in a pass-heavy offense (inflated numbers) or a run-first offense (deflated numbers)?  If they pick the right talent, the chances of success playing with a guy like Josh Allen are much higher than with most other QBs.  When they drafted Sammy Watkins, the idea was that he, as a great WR, would help EJ Manuel develop.  We all know how that turned out.  In this case, Allen is already great, so they don't need a guy to help "make" Allen.  He's made.  Given that Allen is a such a great QB, a "9" WR (on a scale of 1 to 10) may be more than good enough and it's not necessary to trade up for a "10."  There still may be 9s available at 28, even if the 3 or 4 10s are gone.  While a 10 would be best (surrendering multiple picks to trade up), a 9 plus a safety and a defensive end (staying at 28 and using all the picks) might be the better mix for the overall success of the team.

Edited April 11 by msw2112

[mannc]

18 hours ago, Rigotz said:

I've heard a lot of Bills talking heads raving about 2nd round WR success -- Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, etc.

 

It's a hot topic with the podcasting community as everyone seems to be laser focused at WR in round 1 or 2.

 

So, I was curious to research the hit rate of WR in 1st round vs 2nd round the past several years. The results might surprise you.

 

I marked "++" for plus starters each year, which I would define as a top 32 wideout. The past 2 seasons are TBD, so I started in 2021.

 

Totals:

11 out of 28 first round picks ended up being plus starters (39%).

6 out of 33 second round picks ended up being plus starters (18%).

 

2021:

1st Round

Ja'Marr Chase ++

Jaylen Waddle ++

DeVonta Smith ++

Kadarius Toney

Rashod Bateman

 

2nd Round

Elijah Moore

Rondale Moore

D'Wayne Eskridge

Tutu Atwell

Terrace Marshall Jr

 

2020:

1st Round

Henry Ruggs

Jerry Jeudy

CeeDee Lamb ++

Jalen Reagor

Justin Jefferson ++

Brandon Aiyuk ++

2nd Round

Tee Higgins ++

Michael Pittman ++

Laviska Shenault

KJ Hamler

Chase Claypool

Van Jefferson

Denzel Mims

 

2019:

1st Round

Marquise Brown

N'Keal Harry

2nd Round

Deebo Samuel ++

AJ Brown ++

Mecole Hardman

JJ Arcega-Whiteside

Parris Campbell

Andy Isabella

DK Metcalf ++

 

2018:

1st Round:

DJ Moore ++

Calvin Ridley

2nd Round:

Courtland Sutton

Dante Pettis

Christian Kirk

Anthony MIller

James Washintgon

DJ Chark

 

2017:

1st Round:

Corey Davis

Mike Williams ++

John Ross

2nd Round:

Zay Jones

Curtis Samuel

JuJu Smith-Schuster

 

2016:

1st Round:

Corey Coleman

Will Fuller

Josh Doctson

Laquon Treadwell

2nd Round:

Sterling Shepard

Michael Thomas +?

Tyler Boyd

 

2015:

1st Round:

Amari Cooper ++

Kevin White

DeVante Parker

Nelson Agholor

Breshad Perriman

Phillip Dorsett

2nd Round:

Devin Smith

Dorial Green-Beckham

 

So ... when you hear the talking heads describing 1st and 2nd round as both being a hot bed for WR talent historically, this is just recency bias due to a few good players coming from the 2020 and 2019 first and second round. There have been been A LOT of JAGs mixed in as well... but maybe they forgot. Hope you enjoy the analysis.

But why stop at round two?  If you look at the even later rounds, you'd get guys like Keenan Allen, Stefon Diggs, Tryreek Hill, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nakua, Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Terry McLaurin, Amon-Re St Brown, Romeo Dobbs, Dionte Johnson, Rashid Shaheed (undrafted), etc... 

[GASabresIUFan]

How many of these “franchise” WRs have won a Super Bowl?  From the list in the OP, I think the answer is zero.

 

The Bills are certainly looking for the best WR they can find in the draft, but it is not imperative that they get a “star” with their pick at 28 or 60.  What they need is someone who can stretch the field and catch at least 65-70% of his opportunities.  Brady’s offense is about spreading the ball around.  Hard to double team one guy, if there are 4 guys on the field equally capable. The Bills already have 4 capable pass catchers in Kincaid, Shakir, Cook and Samuel.  What they don’t have is a big WR with speed who can force defenses to be more spread out enabling Kincaid and Samuel to flourish underneath.  
 

I am excited to see what Shakir can do on the boundary.  He had 17 explosive plays last season on just 45 targets.  
 

All we really need from the rookie is about 40-45 catches for 650 yards.  Anything more than that is gravy.  If he become a first year star along the lines of Jordan Addison or Jaylen Reed all the better.

 

PS: I think the “hit” definition in the OP is much too limiting.  A good draft pick is someone who becomes a starter and hopefully plays for a decade.  We may be disappointed in Gabe Davis, but the guy caught 2700 yards over his 4 years with 27 TDs.  That good production from any WR pick, much less a 4th rounder.  Curtis Samuel has over 4000 yards from scrimmage over his 7 year career (2 years with limited PT due to injury).  He was a very solid draft pick and is now the Bills starting slot receiver.

Edited April 11 by GASabresIUFan

[GASabresIUFan]

By the way there are 53 different Wideouts who caught 1000 yards worth of passes in a season in the last 5 years.  Only Diggs was 1000+ all 5 years.

 

They were drafted as follows

top 10 - 8

11-20 - 5

21-32 - 6 (DJ Moore, Aiyuk, Hopkins, Jefferson, Ridley, Marq Brown)

(1st rd 19 total)

2nd rd - 15

3rd rd - 10

4th rd - 1 (Amun-Ra St Brown)

5th rd - 5 (Diggs, Hill, Nacua, Mooney & Renfrow)

6th rd - 0

7th rd - 1 (Julian Edelman)

UDFA - 2 (Adam Thielen & Robbie Anderson)

[gonzo1105]

20 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

There are a few names on the failures list that a lot of posters here have banged the table for at the time …

I can think of only two on this list I really liked that failed. Kadarius Toney and Jerry Jeudy who isn’t really a failure just never has lived up to his draft hype. 

 

There were plenty of Shenault and Juju lovers on this board for sure 

[dave mcbride]

18 hours ago, Rigotz said:

I debated Michael Thomas being a ++ but he’s on waivers right now and generally an afterthought in Free Agency. The same can be said about JuJu… signed to a cheap deal with KC and a cheap deal with the Pats. Courtland Sutton is your best case… but again, top 32?

 

If you think any of these guys are currently top 32 receivers, go right ahead and add another plus next to their name. I don’t think the teams who drafted them are currently taking a victory lap.

Top 32 WR. In other words, are their teams thrilled with the production they got with their 1st round / 2nd round pick? With each of those players, I’m not sure I’d agree that their teams are thrilled … as they weren’t (or likely won’t be) re-signed.

Calvin Ridley is elite, as evidenced by his huge contract this offseason. He also made Keir Elam look absolutely terrible last season. 

 

Great post, though!

Edited April 11 by dave mcbride

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

So in today's Athletic, they looked at a very similar thing.  Article also stated that WR has one of the lowest rates of all position over the past 25 years in the first round.  Only positions worse are TE and QB is dead last.  LB has the best rate, pretty much any position on O-line has a good success rate too.  Even WR drafted in the top 10 only has a 53% success rate

 

 

https://theathletic.com/5405843/2024/04/10/odds-a-first-round-wr-busts-scoop-city/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983&userId=2134925

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2441018-which-positions-are-the-safest-riskiest-at-the-top-of-the-nfl-draft

[T master]

I don't want any little WR's we have had enough of them all the way back to Roscoe Parish and most of them haven't panned out except Bease . I hope they get a guy that's at least a clone of Eric Moulds size and speed . I think Leggett is that guy for what ever reason .

 

If they can get 1 of the bigger guys in the first that has a higher grade than Leggett then get him but if they do i hope Leggett falls to them in the second or it wouldn't hurt my feeling if they got the stud center that's coming out this year & Leggett in the second . That way Josh could develop a chemistry with him for years to come maybe even the rest of Joshes time in B/lo .